Modelling the water, energy and economic nexus

The mining industry faces three long term strategic risks in relation to its water and energy use: 1) securing enough water and energy to meet increased production; 2) reducing water use, energy consumption and emissions due to social, environmental and economic pressures; and 3) understanding the links between water and energy, so that an improvement in one area does not create an adverse effect in another. This project helps the industry analyse these risks by creating a hierarchical systems model (HSM) that represents the water and energy interactions on a sub-site, site and regional scales; which is coupled with a flexible risk framework. The HSM consists of: components that represent sources of water and energy; activities that use water and energy and off-site destinations of water and produced emissions. It can also represent more complex components on a site, with inbuilt examples including tailings dams and water treatment plants. The HSM also allows multiple sites and other infrastructure to be connected together to explore regional water and energy interactions. By representing water and energy as a single interconnected system the HSM can explore tradeoffs and synergies. For example, on a synthetic case study, which represents a typical site, simulations suggested that while a synergy in terms of water use and energy use could be made when chemical additives were used to enhance dust suppression, there were trade-offs when either thickened tailings or dry processing were used. On a regional scale, the HSM was used to simulate various scenarios, including: mines only withdrawing water when needed; achieving economics-of-scale through use of a single centralised treatment plant rather than smaller decentralised treatment plants; and capturing of fugitive emissions for energy generation. The HSM also includes an integrated risk framework for interpreting model output, so that onsite and off-site impacts of various water and energy management strategies can be compared in a managerial context. The case studies in this report explored company, social and environmental risks for scenarios of regional water scarcity, unregulated saline discharge, and the use of plantation forestry to offset carbon emissions. The HSM was able to represent the non-linear causal relationship at the regional scale, such as the forestry scheme offsetting a small percentage of carbon emissions but causing severe regional water shortages. The HSM software developed in this project will be released as an open source tool to allow industry personnel to easily and inexpensively quantify and explore the links between water use, energy use, and carbon emissions. The tool can be easily adapted to represent specific sites or regions. Case studies conducted in this project highlighted the potential complexity of these links between water, energy, and carbon emissions, as well as the significance of the cumulative effects of these links over time. A deeper understanding of these links is vital for the mining industry in order to progress to more sustainable operations, and the HSM provides an accessible, robust framework for investigating these links.

Clinical and economic outcomes of nutrition interventions across the continuum of care

Optimal nutrition across the continuum of care plays a key role in the short- and long-term clinical and economic outcomes of patients. Worldwide, an estimated one-quarter to one-half of patients admitted to hospitals each year are malnourished. Malnutrition can increase healthcare costs by delaying patient recovery and rehabilitation and increasing the risk of medical complications. Nutrition interventions have the potential to provide cost-effective preventive care and treatment measures. However, limited data exist on the economics and impact evaluations of these interventions. In this report, nutrition and health system researchers, clinicians, economists, and policymakers discuss emerging global research on nutrition health economics, the role of nutrition interventions across the continuum of care, and how nutrition can affect healthcare costs in the context of hospital malnutrition.

Evaluation of the potential impact of the global economic crisis on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia

Economic conditions around the world are likely to deteriorate in the short to medium term. The potential impact of this crisis on the spread of HIV is not clear. Government revenues and aid flows from international donors may face constraints, possibly leading to reductions in funding for HIV programs. Economic conditions (leading to increases in unemployment, for example) may also have an indirect impact on HIV epidemics by affecting the behaviour of individual people. Some behavioural changes may influence the rate of HIV transmission. This report presents findings from a study that investigates the potential impact of the economic crisis on HIV epidemics through the use of mathematical modelling. The potential epidemiological impacts of changes in the economy are explored for two distinctly characterised HIV epidemics: (i) a well-defined, established, and generalised HIV epidemic (specifically Cambodia, where incidence is declining); (ii) an HIV epidemic in its early expansion phase (specifically Papua New Guinea, where incidence has not yet peaked). Country-specific data are used for both settings and the models calibrated to accurately reflect the unique HIV epidemics in each population in terms of both incidence and prevalence. Models calibrated to describe the past and present epidemics are then used to forecast epidemic trajectories over the next few years under assumptions that behavioural or program conditions may change due to economic conditions. It should be noted that there are very limited solid data on how HIV/AIDS program funds may decrease or how social determinants related to HIV risk may change due to the economic crisis. Potential changes in key relevant factors were explored, along with sensitivity ranges around these assumptions, based on extensive discussions with in-country and international experts and stakeholders. As with all mathematical models, assumptions should be reviewed critically and results interpreted cautiously.

An economic case for providing free access to antiretroviral therapy for HIV-positive people in South Australia

Background As financial constraints can be a barrier to accessing HIV antiretroviral therapy (ART), we argue for the removal of copayment requirements from HIV medications in South Australia. Methods Using a simple mathematical model informed by available behavioural and biological data and reflecting the HIV epidemiology in South Australia, we calculated the expected number of new HIV transmissions caused by persons who are not currently on ART compared with transmissions for people on ART. The extra financial investment required to cover the copayments to prevent an HIV infection was compared with the treatment costs saved due to averting HIV infections. Results It was estimated that one HIV infection is prevented per year for every 31.4 persons (median, 24.0–42.7 interquartile range (IQR)) who receive treatment. By considering the incremental change in costs and outcomes of a change in program from the current status quo, it would cost the health sector $17 860 per infection averted (median, $13 651–24 287 IQR) if ART is provided as a three-dose, three-drug combination without requirements for user-pay copayments. Conclusions The costs of removing copayment fees for ART are less than the costs of treating extra HIV infections that would result under current conditions. Removing the copayment requirement for HIV medication would be cost-effective from a governmental perspective.

What impact might the economic crisis have on HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia?

Objective: To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design: To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods: Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results: In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions: The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

On the (ir)relevance of rates of return measures of economic performance to small boats

A common measure of the economic performance of different fleet segments in fisheries is the rate of return on capital. However, in the English Channel (UK), observed changes in the fleet structure are at odds with expectations given the observed rates of return on capital. This disjunction between expected and observed behaviour raises the question as to the appropriateness of rate of return on capital as a measure of economic performance for small boats whose main input is often non-wage labour. In this paper, an alternative performance indicator is developed based on returns on owner-operator labour. This indicator appears to be of more relevance to small scale boats than the traditional returns on capital, and a better indicator of the direction of adjustment in the fishery.

Economic Analysis and Policy moves forward

As Editor of Economic Analysis and Policy (EAP) I am delighted to announce that EAP is now published by Elsevier. EAP is the journal of the Economic Society of Australia (Queensland branch). As a result of this move, four issues of EAP will be published per year instead of the current three. This will include special issues. EAP will now receive wider coverage in the relevant abstracting and indexing services...

The psychological and economic factors that influence energy consumption habits of low-income earners

Social marketers and governments have often targeted hard to reach or vulnerable groups (Gordon et al., 2006) such as young adults and low income earners. Past research has shown that low-income earners are often at risk of poor health outcomes and diminished lifestyle (Hampson et al., 2009; Scott et al., 2012). Young adults (aged 18 to 35) are in a transition phase of their life where lifestyle preferences are still being formed and are thus a useful target for long-term sustainable change. An area of focus for all levels of government is the use of energy with an aim to reduce consumption. There is little research to date that combines both of these groups and in particular in the context of household energy usage. Research into financially disadvantaged consumers is challenging the notion that that low income consumer purchasing and usage of products and services is based upon economic status (Sharma et al., 2012). Prior research shows higher income earners view items such as televisions and computers as necessities rather than non-essential (Karlsson et al., 2004). Consistent with this is growing evidence that low income earners purchase non-essential, energy intensive electronic appliances such as multiple big screen TV sets and additional refrigerators. With this in mind, there is a need for knowledge about how psychological and economic factors influence the energy consumption habits (e.g. appliances on standby power, leaving appliances turned on, running multiple devices at one time) of low income earners. Thus, our study sought to address the research question of: What are the factors that influence young adult low-income earners energy habits?

Heartbeat and economic decisions : observing mental stress among proposers and responders in the ultimatum bargaining game

The ultimatum bargaining game (UBG), a widely used method in experimental economics, clearly demonstrates that motives other than pure monetary reward play a role in human economic decision making. In this study, we explore the behaviour and physiological reactions of both responders and proposers in an ultimatum bargaining game using heart rate variability (HRV), a small and nonintrusive technology that allows observation of both sides of an interaction in a normal experimental economics laboratory environment. We find that low offers by a proposer cause signs of mental stress in both the proposer and the responder; that is, both exhibit high ratios of low to high frequency activity in the HRV spectrum.

Development of a transient, high-level expression platform for protein production in plants

Plants are an attractive alternative to conventional expression systems for the production of recombinant proteins and useful biologics, however, the economic viability of plant made proteins is strongly yield dependent. This study aimed to improve transgene expression levels in the plant host Nicotiana benthamiana using the Agroinfiltration transient expression platform. Independent investigation of the physical, chemical and genetic features associated with Agroinfiltration identified factors that improved transformation frequencies, elevated transgene expression levels and ultimately improved protein yield. The major outcome of this research was a novel hyper-expression system for biofarming recombinant proteins in plants.

Synthesis of heterocyclic nitroxides with an improved yield by investigating the tetraalkylation of N-benzylphthalimide

The synthesis of a novel class of antioxidants, namely pyridine annulated heterocyclic nitroxides has been investigated. Two analogues were developed that differed in the structure around the free radical nitroxide. The isolation and characterisation of several side products formed in the reactions gave insight into the reaction mechanism. These findings were exploited in order to improve the overall synthetic yield of the reaction.

Adverse breast cancer treatment effects: The economic case for making rehabilitative programs standard of care

Purpose: The purpose of this work was to evaluate the patient-borne financial cost of common, adverse breast cancer treatment-associated effects, comparing cost across women with or without these side-effects. Methods: 287 Australian women diagnosed with early-stage breast cancer were prospectively followed starting at six months post-surgery for 12 months, with three-monthly assessment of detailed treatment-related side effects and their direct and indirect patient costs attributable to breast cancer. Bootstrapping statistics were used to analyze cost data and adjusted logistic regression was used to evaluate the association between costs and adverse events from breast cancer. Costs were inflated and converted from 2002 Australian to 2014 US dollars. Results: More than 90% of women experienced at least one adverse effect (i.e. post-surgical issue, reaction to radiotherapy, upper-body symptoms or reduced function, lymphedema, fatigue or weight gain). On average, women paid $5,636 (95%CI: $4,694, $6,577) in total costs. Women with any one of the following symptoms (fatigue, reduced upper-body function, upper-body symptoms) or women who report ≥4 adverse treatment-related effects, have 1.5 to nearly 4 times the odds of having higher healthcare costs than women who do not report these complaints (p<0.05). Conclusions: Women face substantial economic burden due to a range of treatment-related health problems, which may persist beyond the treatment period. Improving breast cancer care by incorporating prospective surveillance of treatment-related side effects, and strategies for prevention and treatment of concerns (e.g., exercise) has real potential for reducing patient-borne costs.