Revisiting the Task-Capability interface model for incorporating human factors into car-following models

Human factors such as distraction, fatigue, alcohol and drug use are generally ignored in car-following (CF) models. Such ignorance overestimates driver capability and leads to most CF models’ inability in realistically explaining human driving behaviors. This paper proposes a novel car-following modeling framework by introducing the difficulty of driving task measured as the dynamic interaction between driving task demand and driver capability. Task difficulty is formulated based on the famous Task Capability Interface (TCI) model, which explains the motivations behind driver’s decision making. The proposed method is applied to enhance two popular CF models: Gipps’ model and IDM, and named as TDGipps and TDIDM respectively. The behavioral soundness of TDGipps and TDIDM are discussed and their stabilities are analyzed. Moreover, the enhanced models are calibrated with the vehicle trajectory data, and validated to explain both regular and human factor influenced CF behavior (which is distraction caused by hand-held mobile phone conversation in this paper). Both the models show better performance than their predecessors, especially in presence of human factors.

Spatiotemporal pattern of bacillary dysentery in China from 1990 to 2009: What is the driver behind?

BACKGROUND Little is known about the spatiotemporal pattern of bacillary dysentery (BD) in China. This study assessed the geographic distribution and seasonality of BD in China over the past two decades. METHODS Data on monthly BD cases in 31 provinces of China from January 1990 to December 2009 obtained from Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention, and data on demographic and geographic factors, as well as climatic factors, were compiled. The spatial distributions of BD in the four periods across different provinces were mapped, and heat maps were created to present the seasonality of BD by geography. A cosinor function combined with Poisson regression was used to quantify the seasonal parameters of BD, and a regression analysis was conducted to identify the potential drivers of morbidity and seasonality of BD. RESULTS Although most regions of China have experienced considerable declines in BD morbidity over the past two decades, Beijing and Ningxia still had high BD morbidity in 2009. BD morbidity decreased more slowly in North-west China than other regions. BD in China mainly peaked from July to September, with heterogeneity in peak time between regions. Relative humidity was associated with BD morbidity and peak time, and latitude was the major predictor of BD amplitude. CONCLUSIONS The transmission of BD was heterogeneous in China. Improved sanitation and hygiene in North-west China, and better access to clean water and food in the big floating population in some metropolises could be the focus of future preventive interventions against BD. BD control efforts should put more emphasis on those dry areas in summer.

Signs of driver sleepiness and risky sleepy driving behaviours: the associations with demographic, work and sleep-related factors

Driving while sleepy is regarded as a substantial crash risk factor. Reducing the risk of sleep-related crashes predominately rests with the driver’s awareness of experiencing signs that are common when sleepy; such as yawning, frequent eye blinks, and difficulty keeping eyes open. However the relationship between the signs of sleepiness and risky sleepy driving behaviours is largely unknown. The current study sought to examine the relationships between drivers’ experiences of the signs of sleepiness, risky sleepy driving behaviours, and the associations with demographic, work and sleep-related factors. In total 1,608 participants completed a questionnaire administered via a telephone interview that assessed their experiences and behaviours of driving while sleepy. The results revealed a number of demographic, work and sleep-related factors were associated with experiencing signs of sleepiness when driving. Signs of sleepiness were also found to mediate the relationship between continuing to drive while sleepy and having a sleep-related close call event. A subgroup analysis based on age (under 30 and 30 years or older) found younger drivers were more likely to continue to drive when sleepy despite experiencing more signs of sleepiness. The results suggest participants had considerable experience with the signs of sleepiness and driving while sleepy. Actions to be taken from this research include informing the content of driver education campaigns regarding the importance of the signs of sleepiness. Working together to educate all drivers about the dangerousness of driving when experiencing signs of sleepiness is an important road safety outcome.

'But I've never sent them any personal details apart from my driver's licence number...': Exploring seniors' attitudes towards identity crime

Identity crime is argued to be one of the most significant crime problems of today. This paper examines identity crime, through the attitudes and practices of a group of seniors in Queensland, Australia. It examines their own actions towards the protection of their personal data in response to a fraudulent email request. Applying the concept of a prudential citizen (as one who is responsible for self-regulating their behaviour to maintain the integrity of one’s identity) it will be argued that seniors often expose identity information through their actions. However, this is demonstrated to be the result of flawed assumptions and misguided beliefs over the perceived risk and likelihood of identity crime, rather than a deliberate act. This paper concludes that to protect seniors from identity crime, greater awareness of appropriate risk-management strategies towards disclosure of their personal details is required to reduce their inadvertent exposure to identity crime.

Learner driver mentor programs: Stakeholder perspectives on an ideal program

This study investigated the development and operation of Learner Driver Mentor Programs (LDMPs). LDMPs are used throughout Australia to assist young learner drivers to gain supervised on-road driving experience through coordinated access to vehicles and supervisors. There is a significant lack of research regarding these programs. In this study, 41 stakeholders including representatives from existing or ceased LDMPs as well as representatives of other groups completed a questionnaire in either survey or interview format. The questionnaire sought information about the objectives of LDMPs, any social problems that were targeted as well as the characteristics of an ideal program and what could be done to improve them. Stakeholders indicated that LDMPs were targeted at local communities and, therefore, there should be a clear local need for the program as well as community ownership and involvement in the program. Additionally, the program needed to be accessible and provide clear positive outcomes for mentees. The most common suggestion to improve LDMPs related to the provision of greater funding and sponsorship, particularly in relation to the vehicles used within the programs. LDMPs appear to have an important role in facilitating young learner drivers to acquire the appropriate number of supervised hours of driving practice. However, while a number of factors appear related to a successful program, the program must remain flexible and suitable for its local community. There is a clear need to complete evaluations of existing programs to ensure that future LDMPs and modifications to existing programs are evidence-based.

Driver views on safety at roadworks

Poor compliance with temporary speed limits is a common contributing factor in roadway work zone crashes. Despite the wide range of measures used to encourage compliance, speeding remains a major challenge in work zone traffic control. As part of the major study into safety at Queensland roadworks conducted by CARRS-Q and industry partners, an online survey was conducted to study the perceptions and experiences of drivers regarding roadworks, speed choice and related safety concerns. Survey participants (N=410) were asked to view photographs of 12 roadwork sites (shot from a drivers’ perspective without revealing the speed limits), to nominate the speed they thought they would drive at through work zones, and to rate from 1 to 5 separate levels of perceived risk to workers and to their own vehicles. The survey sought further information on topics including recall and effectiveness of public safety messages, perceived effectiveness of common roadwork safety measures, and demographic characteristics. Participants were also invited to express their concerns regarding any general or specific issue related to driving through roadworks. The current paper provides a descriptive summary of key findings from the survey, drawn from preliminary analyses of both quantitative and qualitative data, demonstrating the depth of data and its value for improving knowledge on driver perceptions and speed choice at roadworks. The survey is the first study of driver perceptions of roadwork risks and hazards to include an assessment of self-nominated speeds which can be compared with actual observed speeds at the same roadwork sites.

Speeding through roadworks: Understanding driver speed profiles and ways to reduce speeding

Poor compliance with speed limits is a serious safety concern at roadworks. While considerable research has been undertaken worldwide to understand drivers’ speeding behaviour at roadworks and to identify treatments for improving compliance with speed limits, little is known about the speeding behaviour of drivers at Australian roadworks and how their compliance rates with speed limits could be improved. This paper presents findings from two Queensland studies targeted at 1) examining drivers’ speed profiles at three long-term roadwork sites, and 2) understanding the effectiveness of speed control treatments at roadworks. The first study analysed driver speeds at various locations in the sites using a Tobit regression model. Results show that the probability of speeding was higher for light vehicles and their followers, for leaders of platoons with larger front gaps, during late afternoon and early morning, when higher proportions of surrounding vehicles were speeding, and at the upstream of work areas. The second study provided a comprehensive understanding of the effectiveness of various speed control treatments used at roadworks by undertaking a critical review of the literature. Results showed that enforcement has the greatest effects on reducing speeds among all treatments, while the roadwork signage and information-related treatments have small to moderate effects on speed reduction. Findings from the studies have potential for designing programs to effectively improve speed limit compliance at Australian roadworks.

Examining novice education: What can we learn from a compulsory program delivered to both mature-age and young pre-learner licence drivers?

This paper reports results from a qualitative evaluation of a compulsory pre-Learner driver education program within the Australian Capital Territory(ACT), Australia. Two methods were used to obtain feedback from those involved in the delivery of the program as well as those who participated in programs. The first, semi-structured interviews, was undertaken with class room teachers who run the program in their schools, group facilitators running the program with more mature-age students at private facilities (n = 15 in total), and former participants in both school-based and private-based versions of the program (n = 19). The second method used an on-line survey for students (n = 79). Results from both methods were consistent with each other, indicating that strengths of the program were perceived as being its interactive components and the high level of engagement of the target audience. There was strong support from young and mature-age students for the program to remain compulsory. However, consistent with other findings on novice driver education, mature-age participants identified that the program was less relevant to them. It may be that to have greater relevance to mature-age learners, content could address and challenge perceptions about behaviours other than intentional high-risk behaviours (e.g. low level speeding, fatigue) as well as encourage planning/strategies to avoid them. While a longer term, outcome focussed, evaluation of the pre-learner education program is needed, this study suggests that the program is well received by pre-licence drivers and that teachers and facilitators perceive it as both effective and beneficial.

Drink driver rehabilitation and new developments

Drink driving continues to be a major public health concern. Significant reductions in road fatalities have been achieved due largely to the Safe Systems Approach to road safety. However, serious injury due to road trauma has increased in most Australian jurisdictions. Some subgroups of drink drivers such as young drivers and Indigenous drink drivers are vulnerable to road trauma and have been less responsive to countermeasures based on the deterrence philosophy. Drink driving rehabilitation programs that use a combination of deterrence, education and social control models have been moderately successful in reducing recidivism. However, most of these programs do not adequately address alcohol related health concerns or the needs of drink drivers in remote and rural areas. Scant attention has also been given to the use of brief online drink driving interventions. The ‘Under the Limit’ (UTL) drink driving rehabilitation program has recently been revised to ensure that its content is contemporary, relevant and evidenced based. CARRS-Q has also developed a brief online program that targets first time convicted drink drivers who have a BAC under 0.15g/100mL and a culturally sensitive program that targets Aboriginals and Torres Strait Islanders living in rural and remote areas. These new developments will be discussed in the context of the most effective road safety educational policy and practice.

Implementing best practice principles in the delivery of a Learner Driver Mentor Program in rural Queensland: A case study report

Learner Driver Mentor Programs (LDMPs) assist disadvantaged learner drivers to gain supervised on-road driving experience by providing access to vehicles and volunteer mentors. In the absence of existing research investigating the implementation of Best Practice principles in LDMPs, this case study examines successful program operation in the context of a rural town setting. The study is based on an existing Best Practice model for LDMPs, and triangulation of data from a mentor focus group (n = 7), interviews with program stakeholders (n = 9), and an in-depth interview with the site-based program development officer. The data presented is based upon selected findings of the broader evaluation study. Preliminary findings regarding driving session management, support of mentors and mentees, and building and maintaining relationships with program stakeholders, are discussed. Key findings relate to the importance of relationships in engagement with the program and collaborating across sectors to achieve a range of positive outcomes for learners. The findings highlight the need for the program to be relevant and responsive to the requirements of the population and the context in which it is operating.

How does calcification influence plaque vulnerability? Insights from fatigue analysis

Background Calcification is commonly believed to be associated with cardiovascular disease burden. But whether or not the calcifications have a negative effect on plaque vulnerability is still under debate. Methods and Results Fatigue rupture analysis and the fatigue life were used to evaluate the rupture risk. An idealized baseline model containing no calcification was first built. Based on the baseline model, we investigated the influence of calcification on rupture path and fatigue life by adding a circular calcification and changing its location within the fibrous cap area. Results show that 84.0% of calcified cases increase the fatigue life up to 11.4%. For rupture paths 10D far from the calcification, the life change is negligible. Calcifications close to lumen increase more fatigue life than those close to the lipid pool. Also, calcifications in the middle area of fibrous cap increase more fatigue life than those in the shoulder area. Conclusion Calcifications may play a positive role in the plaque stability. The influence of the calcification only exists in a local area. Calcifications close to lumen may be influenced more than those close to lipid pool. And calcifications in the middle area of fibrous cap are seemly influenced more than those in the shoulder area.

Fatigue crack growth under pulsatile pressure and plaque rupture

Identification of vulnerable plaque pre-rupture is extremely important for patient risk stratification. The mechanism of plaque rupture is still not entirely clear, but it is thought to be a process involving multiple factors. From a biomechanical viewpoint, plaque rupture is usually seen as a structural failure when the plaque cannot resist the hemodynamic blood pressure and shear stress exerted on it. However, the cardiovascular system is naturally a cyclical hemodynamic environment, and myocardial infarction can be a symptomatically quiescent but potentially progressive process when plaque ruptures at stresses much lower than its strength. Therefore, fatigue accumulation is a possible mechanism for plaque rupture. In this study, a crack growth model was developed, and the previously-mentioned hypothesis was tested by conducting a comparative study between 18 symptomatic and 16 asymptomatic patients with carotid stenosis.

Fatigue crack propagation analysis of plaque rupture

Rupture of atheromatous plaque is the major cause of stroke or heart attack. Considering that the cardiovascular system is a classic fatigue environment, plaque rupture was treated as a chronic fatigue crack growth process in this study. Fracture mechanics theory was introduced to describe the stress status at the crack tip and Paris' law was used to calculate the crack growth rate. The effect of anatomical variation of an idealized plaque cross-section model was investigated. The crack initiation was considered to be either at the maximum circumferential stress location or at any other possible locations around the lumen. Although the crack automatically initialized at the maximum circumferential stress location usually propagated faster than others, it was not necessarily the most critical location where the fatigue life reached its minimum. We found that the fatigue life was minimum for cracks initialized in the following three regions: the midcap zone, the shoulder zone, and the backside zone. The anatomical variation has a significant influence on the fatigue life. Either a decrease in cap thickness or an increase in lipid pool size resulted in a significant decrease in fatigue life. Comparing to the previously used stress analysis, this fatigue model provides some possible explanations of plaque rupture at a low stress level in a pulsatile cardiovascular environment, and the method proposed here may be useful for further investigation of the mechanism of plaque rupture based on in vivo patient data.

MRI-based fatigue analysis predicts plaque vulnerability: A study comparing symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals

BACKGROUND: Rupture of atheromatous plaque in the carotid artery often leads to thrombosis and subsequent stroke. The mechanism of plaque rupture is not entirely clear but is thought to be a multi-factorial process involving thinning and weakening of the fibrous cap and biomechanical stress as the trigger leading to plaque rupture. As the cardiovascular system is a classic fatigue environment, the weakening of plaque leading to rupture may be a fatigue process, which is a symptomatically quiescent but potentially progressive failure process. In this study, we used a fatigue analysis based on in vivo magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) to investigate the rupture initiation location, crack propagation path and fatigue life within plaques of asymptomatic and symptomatic individuals. METHODS: Forty non-consecutive subjects (20 symptomatic and 20 asymptomatic) underwent high-resolution multi-sequence in vivo MRI of the carotid bifurcation. Fatigue analysis was performed based on the plaque geometry derived from in vivo MRI of the carotid artery at the point of maximum stenosis. Paris’ Law in fracture mechanics is adopted to determine the fatigue crack growth rate. Incremental crack propagation was dynamically simulated based on stress distributions. Plaque initiation location, crack propagation path and fatigue cycle of symptomatic and asymptomatic individuals were compared. RESULTS: Cracks were often found to begin at the lumen wall at areas of stress concentration. The preferred rupture direction was radial from the lumen center. The crack initially advanced slowly but accelerated as it developed, depending on plaque morphology. The fatigue cycles of symptomatic plaques were significantly less than those in the asymptomatic group (2.3 ± 0.9 vs 3.1 ± 0.7 (x106); p = 0.003). CONCLUSIONS: The number of cycles to rupture in symptomatic patients was higher than those predicted in asymptomatic patients by fatigue analysis, suggesting the possibility that plaques with a less fatigue life may be more prone to be symptomatic and rupture. If further validated by large-scale longitudinal studies, fatigue analysis based on high resolution in vivo MRI could potentially act as a useful tool for risk assessment of carotid atheroma.

Muscular activity and fatigue in lower-limb and trunk muscles during different sit-to-stand tests

Sit-to-stand (STS) tests measure the ability to get up from a chair, reproducing an important component of daily living activity. As this functional task is essential for human independence, STS performance has been studied in the past decades using several methods, including electromyography. The aim of this study was to measure muscular activity and fatigue during different repetitions and speeds of STS tasks using surface electromyography in lower-limb and trunk muscles. This cross-sectional study recruited 30 healthy young adults. Average muscle activation, percentage of maximum voluntary contraction, muscle involvement in motion and fatigue were measured using surface electrodes placed on the medial gastrocnemius (MG), biceps femoris (BF), vastus medialis of the quadriceps (QM), the abdominal rectus (AR), erector spinae (ES), rectus femoris (RF), soleus (SO) and the tibialis anterior (TA). Five-repetition STS, 10-repetition STS and 30-second STS variants were performed. MG, BF, QM, ES and RF muscles showed differences in muscle activation, while QM, AR and ES muscles showed significant differences in MVC percentage. Also, significant differences in fatigue were found in QM muscle between different STS tests. There was no statistically significant fatigue in the BF, MG and SO muscles of the leg although there appeared to be a trend of increasing fatigue. These results could be useful in describing the functional movements of the STS test used in rehabilitation programs, notwithstanding that they were measured in healthy young subjects.