Disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990-2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. METHODS We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. FINDINGS Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. INTERPRETATION Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.

Global, regional, and national age–sex specifi c all-cause and cause-specifi c mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence on levels and trends for age-sex-specific all-cause and cause-specific mortality is essential for the formation of global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013) we estimated yearly deaths for 188 countries between 1990, and 2013. We used the results to assess whether there is epidemiological convergence across countries. Methods We estimated age-sex-specific all-cause mortality using the GBD 2010 methods with some refinements to improve accuracy applied to an updated database of vital registration, survey, and census data. We generally estimated cause of death as in the GBD 2010. Key improvements included the addition of more recent vital registration data for 72 countries, an updated verbal autopsy literature review, two new and detailed data systems for China, and more detail for Mexico, UK, Turkey, and Russia. We improved statistical models for garbage code redistribution. We used six different modelling strategies across the 240 causes; cause of death ensemble modelling (CODEm) was the dominant strategy for causes with sufficient information. Trends for Alzheimer's disease and other dementias were informed by meta-regression of prevalence studies. For pathogen-specific causes of diarrhoea and lower respiratory infections we used a counterfactual approach. We computed two measures of convergence (inequality) across countries: the average relative difference across all pairs of countries (Gini coefficient) and the average absolute difference across countries. To summarise broad findings, we used multiple decrement life-tables to decompose probabilities of death from birth to exact age 15 years, from exact age 15 years to exact age 50 years, and from exact age 50 years to exact age 75 years, and life expectancy at birth into major causes. For all quantities reported, we computed 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs). We constrained cause-specific fractions within each age-sex-country-year group to sum to all-cause mortality based on draws from the uncertainty distributions. Findings Global life expectancy for both sexes increased from 65·3 years (UI 65·0–65·6) in 1990, to 71·5 years (UI 71·0–71·9) in 2013, while the number of deaths increased from 47·5 million (UI 46·8–48·2) to 54·9 million (UI 53·6–56·3) over the same interval. Global progress masked variation by age and sex: for children, average absolute differences between countries decreased but relative differences increased. For women aged 25–39 years and older than 75 years and for men aged 20–49 years and 65 years and older, both absolute and relative differences increased. Decomposition of global and regional life expectancy showed the prominent role of reductions in age-standardised death rates for cardiovascular diseases and cancers in high-income regions, and reductions in child deaths from diarrhoea, lower respiratory infections, and neonatal causes in low-income regions. HIV/AIDS reduced life expectancy in southern sub-Saharan Africa. For most communicable causes of death both numbers of deaths and age-standardised death rates fell whereas for most non-communicable causes, demographic shifts have increased numbers of deaths but decreased age-standardised death rates. Global deaths from injury increased by 10·7%, from 4·3 million deaths in 1990 to 4·8 million in 2013; but age-standardised rates declined over the same period by 21%. For some causes of more than 100 000 deaths per year in 2013, age-standardised death rates increased between 1990 and 2013, including HIV/AIDS, pancreatic cancer, atrial fibrillation and flutter, drug use disorders, diabetes, chronic kidney disease, and sickle-cell anaemias. Diarrhoeal diseases, lower respiratory infections, neonatal causes, and malaria are still in the top five causes of death in children younger than 5 years. The most important pathogens are rotavirus for diarrhoea and pneumococcus for lower respiratory infections. Country-specific probabilities of death over three phases of life were substantially varied between and within regions. Interpretation For most countries, the general pattern of reductions in age-sex specific mortality has been associated with a progressive shift towards a larger share of the remaining deaths caused by non-communicable disease and injuries. Assessing epidemiological convergence across countries depends on whether an absolute or relative measure of inequality is used. Nevertheless, age-standardised death rates for seven substantial causes are increasing, suggesting the potential for reversals in some countries. Important gaps exist in the empirical data for cause of death estimates for some countries; for example, no national data for India are available for the past decade.

Exploring association between perceived importance of travel/traffic information and travel behaviour in natural disasters : a case study of the 2011 Brisbane floods

A sound understanding of travellers’ behavioural changes and adaptation when facing a natural disaster is a key factor in efficiently and effectively managing transport networks at such times. This study specifically investigates the importance of travel/traffic information and its impact on travel behaviour during natural disasters. Using the 2011 Brisbane flood as a case study, survey respondents’ perceptions of the importance of travel/traffic information before, during, and after the flood were modelled using random-effects ordered logit. A hysteresis phenomenon was observed: respondents’ perceptions of the importance of travel/traffic information increased during the flood, and although its perceived importance decreased after the flood, it did not return to the pre-flood level. Results also reveal that socio-demographic features (such as gender and age) have a significant impact on respondents’ perceptions of the importance of travel/traffic information. The roles of travel time and safety in a respondent’s trip planning are also significantly correlated to their perception of the importance of this information. The analysis further shows that during the flood, respondents generally thought that travel/traffic information was important, and adjusted their travel plans according to information received. When controlling for other factors, the estimated odds of changing routes and cancelling trips for a respondent who thought that travel/traffic information was important, are respectively about three times and seven times the estimated odds for a respondent who thought that travel/traffic information was not important. In contrast, after the flood, the influence of travel/traffic information on respondents’ travel behaviour diminishes. Finally, the analysis shows no evidence of the influence of travel/traffic information’s on respondents’ travel mode; this indicates that inducing travel mode change is a challenging task.

A C-ITS based lane changing advisory for weaving sections

This study examines the benefits of Cooperative Intelligent Transport Systems (C-ITS) in weaving sections. The research proposes a lane-changing advisory application to alleviate the lane-changing concentration in weaving sections by coordinating weaving vehicles. While non-weaving vehicles travel as normal, weaving vehicles are monitored and advised through personalized messages based on their destination lane. The findings of this research, derived from a microscopic simulation in AIMSUN, reveal that the proposed strategy has the potential to improve delay significantly and that it can be applied to any existing one-sided weaving sections.

Catalytic activity evaluation of industrial Pd/C catalyst via gray-box dynamic modeling and simulation of hydropurification reactor

In this paper, dynamic modeling and simulation of the hydropurification reactor in a purified terephthalic acid production plant has been investigated by gray-box technique to evaluate the catalytic activity of palladium supported on carbon (0.5 wt.% Pd/C) catalyst. The reaction kinetics and catalyst deactivation trend have been modeled by employing artificial neural network (ANN). The network output has been incorporated with the reactor first principle model (FPM). The simulation results reveal that the gray-box model (FPM and ANN) is about 32 percent more accurate than FPM. The model demonstrates that the catalyst is deactivated after eleven months. Moreover, the catalyst lifetime decreases about two and half months in case of 7 percent increase of reactor feed flowrate. It is predicted that 10 percent enhancement of hydrogen flowrate promotes catalyst lifetime at the amount of one month. Additionally, the enhancement of 4-carboxybenzaldehyde concentration in the reactor feed improves CO and benzoic acid synthesis. CO is a poison to the catalyst, and benzoic acid might affect the product quality. The model can be applied into actual working plants to analyze the Pd/C catalyst efficient functioning and the catalytic reactor performance.

MITIE C-Arm - Advanced innovation in education

Aim: In 2013 QUT introduced the Medical Imaging Training Immersive Environment (MITIE) as a virtual reality (VR) platform that allowed students to practice general radiography. The system software has been expanded to now include C-Arm. The aim of this project was to investigate the use of this technology in the pedagogy of undergraduate medical imaging students who have limited to no experience in the use of the C-Arm clinically. Method: The Medical Imaging Training Immersive Environment (MITIE) application provides students with realistic and fully interactive 3D models of C-Arm equipment. As with VR initiatives in other health disciplines (1–2) the software mimics clinical practice as much as possible and uses 3D technology to enhance 3D spatial awareness and realism. The application allows students to set up and expose a virtual patient in a 3D environment as well as creating the resultant “image” for comparison with a gold standard. Automated feedback highlights ways for the student to improve their patient positioning, equipment setup or exposure factors. The students' equipment knowledge was tested using an on line assessment quiz and surveys provided information on the students' pre-clinical confidence scale, with post-clinical data comparisons. Ethical approval for the project was provided by the university ethics panel. Results: This study is currently under way and this paper will present analysis of initial student feedback relating to the perceived value of the application for confidence in a high risk environment (i.e. operating theatre) and related clinical skills development. Further in-depth evaluation is ongoing with full results to be presented. Conclusion: MITIE C-Arm has a development role to play in the pre-clinical skills training for Medical Radiation Science students. It will augment their theoretical understanding prior to their clinical experience. References 1. Bridge P, Appleyard R, Ward J, Phillips R, Beavis A. The development and evaluation of a virtual radiotherapy treatment machine using an immersive visualisation environment. Computers and Education 2007; 49(2): 481–494. 2. Gunn T, Berry C, Bridge P et al. 3D Virtual Radiography: Development and Initial Feedback. Paper presented at the 10th Annual Scientific Meeting of Medical Imaging and Radiation Therapy, March 2013 Hobart, Tasmania.

Large-scale interlaboratory study to develop, analytically validate and apply highly multiplexed, quantitative peptide assays to measure cancer-relevant proteins in plasma

There is an increasing need in biology and clinical medicine to robustly and reliably measure tens-to-hundreds of peptides and proteins in clinical and biological samples with high sensitivity, specificity, reproducibility and repeatability. Previously, we demonstrated that LC-MRM-MS with isotope dilution has suitable performance for quantitative measurements of small numbers of relatively abundant proteins in human plasma, and that the resulting assays can be transferred across laboratories while maintaining high reproducibility and quantitative precision. Here we significantly extend that earlier work, demonstrating that 11 laboratories using 14 LC-MS systems can develop, determine analytical figures of merit, and apply highly multiplexed MRM-MS assays targeting 125 peptides derived from 27 cancer-relevant proteins and 7 control proteins to precisely and reproducibly measure the analytes in human plasma. To ensure consistent generation of high quality data we incorporated a system suitability protocol (SSP) into our experimental design. The SSP enabled real-time monitoring of LC-MRM-MS performance during assay development and implementation, facilitating early detection and correction of chromatographic and instrumental problems. Low to sub-nanogram/mL sensitivity for proteins in plasma was achieved by one-step immunoaffinity depletion of 14 abundant plasma proteins prior to analysis. Median intra- and inter-laboratory reproducibility was <20%, sufficient for most biological studies and candidate protein biomarker verification. Digestion recovery of peptides was assessed and quantitative accuracy improved using heavy isotope labeled versions of the proteins as internal standards. Using the highly multiplexed assay, participating laboratories were able to precisely and reproducibly determine the levels of a series of analytes in blinded samples used to simulate an inter-laboratory clinical study of patient samples. Our study further establishes that LC-MRM-MS using stable isotope dilution, with appropriate attention to analytical validation and appropriate quality c`ontrol measures, enables sensitive, specific, reproducible and quantitative measurements of proteins and peptides in complex biological matrices such as plasma.

Structural complexity in structural health monitoring: Design of laboratory model and test plan

Many researchers in the field of civil structural health monitoring (SHM) have developed and tested their methods on simple to moderately complex laboratory structures such as beams, plates, frames, and trusses. Fieldwork has also been conducted by many researchers and practitioners on more complex operating bridges. Most laboratory structures do not adequately replicate the complexity of truss bridges. Informed by a brief review of the literature, this paper documents the design and proposed test plan of a structurally complex laboratory bridge model that has been specifically designed for the purpose of SHM research. Preliminary results have been presented in the companion paper.

A comparative study of prognostic model for bearing failure

An effective prognostics program will provide ample lead time for maintenance engineers to schedule a repair and to acquire replacement components before catastrophic failures occur. This paper presents a technique for accurate assessment of the remnant life of machines based on health state probability estimation technique. For comparative study of the proposed model with the proportional hazard model (PHM), experimental bearing failure data from an accelerated bearing test rig were used. The result shows that the proposed prognostic model based on health state probability estimation can provide a more accurate prediction capability than the commonly used PHM in bearing failure case study.

Structural complexity in structural health monitoring: Preliminary experimental modal testing and analysis

Many researchers in the field of civil structural health monitoring have developed and tested their methods on simple to moderately complex laboratory structures such as beams, plates, frames, and trusses. Field work has also been conducted by many researchers and practitioners on more complex operating bridges. Most laboratory structures do not adequately replicate the complexity of truss bridges. This paper presents some preliminary results of experimental modal testing and analysis of the bridge model presented in the companion paper, using the peak picking method, and compares these results with those of a simple numerical model of the structure. Three dominant modes of vibration were experimentally identified under 15 Hz. The mode shapes and order of the modes matched those of the numerical model; however, the frequencies did not match.

Analysis and evaluation of use of the V1 and South East Freeway Bicycleway post completion of Stage C of the V1

Executive Summary: Completion of the Veloway 1 (V1) will provide a dedicated and safe route for cyclists between the Brisbane CBD and the Gateway Motorway off-ramp at Eight Mile Plains alongside the South East Motorway. The V1 is being delivered in stages and when completed will provide a dedicated 3m wide cycleway 17km in length. Two stages (D and E) remain to be constructed to complete the V1. Major trip attractors along the V1 include the Mater, Princes Alexandra and Greenslopes Hospitals, two campuses of Griffith University, Garden City shopping centre and the Australian Tax Office. This report assesses the available evidence on the impacts on cycling behaviour of the recently completed V1 Stage C. The data sources informing this review include three intercept surveys, motion activated traffic cameras and travel time surveys on the V1 and adjoining South East Freeway Bikeway (SEFB), Strava app data, and cyclist crash data along Logan Road. The key findings from the evidence are that the completed V1 Stage C has: a Attracted cyclists from Holland Park, Holland Park West, Mt Gravatt and southern parts of Tarragindi onto the V1 Stage C. b Reduced the crash exposure of pedestrians to cyclists by attracting higher speed cyclists off the adjoining SEFB onto the cycling dedicated V1 Stage C. c Reduced the potential crash exposure of cyclists to motor vehicles by attracting cyclists off Logan Road on to the V1. d Provided travel time benefits to cyclists and reduced road crossings (eight down to two). e Predominantly attracted adults commuting alone to and from work and university. The evidence shows that the two traffic crossings across Birdwood Road (required as a temporary measure until the V1 is completed) negate much of the travel time gains of the V1 Stage C compared to the adjoining SEFB for southbound cyclists. Many cyclists accessing the V1 Stage C from the south are cycling in high-volume vehicular traffic lanes to reduce their travel time along Birdwood Road, but in the process are increasing their exposure to crashes with motor vehicles. Based on these findings this report recommends that TMR: a. Continue with plans to complete the V1 Veloway b. Undertake an engineering feasibility assessment to determine the viability of constructing a section of the V1 Stage E from the intersection Weller and Birdwood Roads over Marshall Road and along Bapaume Road on the western side of the Motorway to the intersection of Bapaume and Sterculia Roads. c. In the interim, improve signage and Birdwood Road crossing points for cyclists accessing and egressing the southern end of the V1 Stage C. d. Work with Brisbane City Council to identify the safest and most practical bicycle facilities to facilitate cycle travel between Logan Road and the V1 south of Birdwood Road. e. Improve the awareness of the V1 Stage C through signage for cyclists approaching from the north with the aim of providing a better understanding of the route of the V1 to the south. f. Refine the use of motion activated traffic cameras to improve the capture rate of useable images and obtain an ongoing collection over time of V1 usage data. g. Undertake discussions with Strava, Inc. to refine the presentation of Strava data to improve visual understanding of maps showing before and after cycle route volumes along and on roads leading to the V1.

Antioxidants in Athlete's Basic Nutrition: Considerations towards a Guideline for the Intake of Vitamin C and Vitamin E

Antioxidants in acute physical exercise and exercise training remain a hot topic in sport nutrition, exercise physiology and biology, in general (Jackson, 2008; Margaritis and Rousseau, 2008; Gomez-Cabrera et al., 2012; Nikolaidis et al., 2012). During the past few decades, antioxidants have received attention predominantly as a nutritional strategy for preventing or minimising detrimental effects of reactive oxygen and nitrogen species (RONS), which are generated during and after strenuous exercise (Jackson, 2008, 2009; Powers and Jackson, 2008). Antioxidant supplementation has become a common practice among athletes as a means to (theoretically) reduce oxidative stress, promote recovery and enhance performance (Peternelj and Coombes, 2011). However, until now, requirements of antioxidant micronutrients and antioxidant compounds for athletes training for and competing in different sport events, including marathon running, triathlon races or team sport events involving repeated sprinting, have not been determined sufficiently (Williams et al., 2006; Margaritis and Rousseau, 2008). Crucially, evidence has been emerging that higher dosages of antioxidants may not necessarily be beneficial in this context, but can also elicit detrimental effects by interfering with performance-enhancing (Gomez-Cabrera et al., 2008) and health-promoting training adaptations (Ristow et al., 2009). As originally postulated in a pioneering study on exercise-induced production of RONS by Davies et al. (1982) in the early 1980s, evidence has been increasing in recent years that RONS are not only damaging agents, but also act as signalling molecules for regulating muscle function (Reid, 2001; Jackson, 2008) and for initiating adaptive responses to exercise (Jackson, 2009; Powers et al., 2010). The recognition that antioxidants could, vice versa, interact with the signalling pathways underlying the responses to acute (and repeated) bouts of exercise has contributed important novel aspects to the continued discussion on antioxidant requirements for athletes. In view of the recent advances in this field, it is the aim of this report to examine the current knowledge of antioxidants, in particular of vitamins C and E, in the basic nutrition of athletes. While overviews on related topics including basic mechanisms of exercise-induced oxidative stress, redox biology, antioxidant defence systems and a summary of studies on antioxidant supplementation during exercise training are provided, this does not mean that this report is comprehensive. Several issues of the expanding and multidisciplinary field of antioxidants and exercise are covered elsewhere in this book and/or in the literature. Exemplarily, the reader is referred to reviews on oxidative stress (Konig et al., 2001; Vollaard et al., 2005; Knez et al., 2006; Powers and Jackson, 2008; Nikolaidis et al., 2012), redox-sensitive signalling and muscle function (Reid, 2001; Vollaard et al., 2005; Jackson, 2008; Ji, 2008; Powers and Jackson, 2008; Powers et al., 2010; Radak et al., 2013) and antioxidant supplementation (Williams et al., 2006; Peake et al., 2007; Peternelj and Coombes, 2011) in the context with exercise. Within the scope of the report, we rather aim to address the question regarding requirements of antioxidants, specifically vitamins C and E, during exercise training, draw conclusions and provide practical implications from the recent research.

Hepatitis C and initiates into injecting drug use among young people: Part I: The first shot

Explores how young people in Australia first come to inject drugs and how they learn about hepatitis C and sterile injecting drug use. Background on hepatitis C; Reasons for injecting drugs; Selection criteria for young people's participation in the i2i Project.

A network DEA quantity and quality-orientated production model: An application to Australian university research services

The motivation for this analysis is the recently developed Excellence in Research for Australia (ERA) program developed to assess the quality of research in Australia. The objective is to develop an appropriate empirical model that better represents the underlying production of higher education research. In general, past studies on university research performance have used standard DEA models with some quantifiable research outputs. However, these suffer from the twin maladies of an inappropriate production specification and a lack of consideration of the quality of output. By including the qualitative attributes of peer-reviewed journals, we develop a procedure that captures both quality and quantity, and apply it using a network DEA model. Our main finding is that standard DEA models tend to overstate the research efficiency of most Australian universities.