437 resultados para Basic Reproduction Number


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Electricity is the cornerstone of modern life. It is essential to economic stability and growth, jobs and improved living standards. Electricity is also the fundamental ingredient for a dignified life; it is the source of such basic human requirements as cooked food, a comfortable living temperature and essential health care. For these reasons, it is unimaginable that today's economies could function without electricity and the modern energy services that it delivers. Somewhat ironically, however, the current approach to electricity generation also contributes to two of the gravest and most persistent problems threatening the livelihood of humans. These problems are anthropogenic climate change and sustained human poverty. To address these challenges, the global electricity sector must reduce its reliance on fossil fuel sources. In this context, the object of this research is twofold. Initially it is to consider the design of the Renewable Energy (Electricity) Act 2000 (Cth) (Renewable Electricity Act), which represents Australia's primary regulatory approach to increase the production of renewable sourced electricity. This analysis is conducted by reference to the regulatory models that exist in Germany and Great Britain. Within this context, this thesis then evaluates whether the Renewable Electricity Act is designed effectively to contribute to a more sustainable and dignified electricity generation sector in Australia. On the basis of the appraisal of the Renewable Electricity Act, this thesis contends that while certain aspects of the regulatory regime have merit, ultimately its design does not represent an effective and coherent regulatory approach to increase the production of renewable sourced electricity. In this regard, this thesis proposes a number of recommendations to reform the existing regime. These recommendations are not intended to provide instantaneous or simple solutions to the current regulatory regime. Instead, the purpose of these recommendations is to establish the legal foundations for an effective regulatory regime that is designed to increase the production of renewable sourced electricity in Australia in order to contribute to a more sustainable and dignified approach to electricity production.

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Objective Bronchiolitis, one of the most common reasons for hospitalisation in young children, is particularly problematic in Indigenous children. Macrolides may be beneficial in settings where children have high rates of nasopharyngeal bacterial carriage and frequent prolonged illness. The aim of our double-blind placebo-controlled randomised trial was to determine if a large single dose of azithromycin (compared to placebo) reduced length of stay (LOS), duration of oxygen (O2) and respiratory readmissions within 6 months of children hospitalised with bronchiolitis. We also determined the effect of azithromycin on nasopharyngeal microbiology. Methods Children aged ≤18 months were randomised to receive a single large dose (30 mg/kg) of either azithromycin or placebo within 24 hrs of hospitalisation. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected at baseline and 48hrs later. Primary endpoints (LOS, O2) were monitored every 12 hrs. Hospitalised respiratory readmissions 6-months post discharge was collected. Results 97 children were randomised (n = 50 azithromycin, n = 47 placebo). Median LOS was similar in both groups; azithromycin = 54 hours, placebo = 58 hours (difference between groups of 4 hours 95%CI -8, 13, p = 0.6). O2 requirement was not significantly different between groups; Azithromycin = 35 hrs; placebo = 42 hrs (difference 7 hours, 95%CI -9, 13, p = 0.7). Number of children re-hospitalised was similar 10 per group (OR = 0.9, 95%CI 0.3, 2, p = 0.8). At least one virus was detected in 74% of children. The azithromycin group had reduced nasopharyngeal bacterial carriage (p = 0.01) but no difference in viral detection at 48 hours. Conclusion Although a single dose of azithromycin reduces carriage of bacteria, it is unlikely to be beneficial in reducing LOS, duration of O2 requirement or readmissions in children hospitalised with bronchiolitis. It remains uncertain if an earlier and/or longer duration of azithromycin improves clinical and microbiological outcomes for children.

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Maternal obesity, excess weight gain and lifestyle behaviours during pregnancy have been associated with future overweight and other adverse health outcomes for mothers and babies. This study compared the nutrition and physical activity behaviours of Australian healthy (BMI ≤ 25 k/m2) and overweight (BMI ≥ 25 kg/m2) pregnant women and described their knowledge and receipt of health professional advice early in pregnancy. Methods Pregnant women (n=58) aged 29±5 (mean±s.d.) years were recruited at 16±2 weeks gestation from an Australian metropolitan hospital. Height and weight were measured using standard procedures and women completed a self administered semi-quantitative survey. Results Healthy and overweight women had very similar levels of knowledge, behaviour and levels of advice provided except where specifically mentioned. Only 8% and 36% of participants knew the correct recommended daily number of fruit and vegetable serves respectively. Four percent of participants ate the recommended 5 serves/day of vegetables. Overweight women were less likely than healthy weight women to achieve the recommended fruit intake (4% vs. 8%, p=0.05), and more likely to consume soft drinks or cordial (55% vs 43%, p=0.005) and take away foods (37% vs. 25%, p=0.002) once a week or more. Less than half of all women achieved sufficient physical activity. Despite 80% of women saying they would have liked education about nutrition, physical activity and weight gain, particularly at the beginning of pregnancy, less than 50% were given appropriate advice regarding healthy eating and physical activity. Conclusion Healthy pregnancy behaviour recommendations were not being met, with overweight women less likely to meet some of the recommendations. Knowledge of dietary recommendations was poor and health care professional advice was limited. There are opportunities to improve the health care practices and education pregnant women received to improve knowledge and behaviours. Pregnant women appear to want this.

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Individual variability in the acquisition, consolidation and extinction of conditioned fear potentially contributes to the development of fear pathology including posttraumatic stress disorder (PTSD). Pavlovian fear conditioning is a key tool for the study of fundamental aspects of fear learning. Here, we used a selected mouse line of High and Low Pavlovian conditioned fear created from an advanced intercrossed line (AIL) in order to begin to identify the cellular basis of phenotypic divergence in Pavlovian fear conditioning. We investigated whether phosphorylated MAPK (p44/42 ERK/MAPK), a protein kinase required in the amygdala for the acquisition and consolidation of Pavlovian fear memory, is differentially expressed following Pavlovian fear learning in the High and Low fear lines. We found that following Pavlovian auditory fear conditioning, High and Low line mice differ in the number of pMAPK-expressing neurons in the dorsal sub nucleus of the lateral amygdala (LAd). In contrast, this difference was not detected in the ventral medial (LAvm) or ventral lateral (LAvl) amygdala sub nuclei or in control animals. We propose that this apparent increase in plasticity at a known locus of fear memory acquisition and consolidation relates to intrinsic differences between the two fear phenotypes. These data provide important insights into the micronetwork mechanisms encoding phenotypic differences in fear. Understanding the circuit level cellular and molecular mechanisms that underlie individual variability in fear learning is critical for the development of effective treatment of fear-related illnesses such as PTSD.

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Utility functions in Bayesian experimental design are usually based on the posterior distribution. When the posterior is found by simulation, it must be sampled from for each future data set drawn from the prior predictive distribution. Many thousands of posterior distributions are often required. A popular technique in the Bayesian experimental design literature to rapidly obtain samples from the posterior is importance sampling, using the prior as the importance distribution. However, importance sampling will tend to break down if there is a reasonable number of experimental observations and/or the model parameter is high dimensional. In this paper we explore the use of Laplace approximations in the design setting to overcome this drawback. Furthermore, we consider using the Laplace approximation to form the importance distribution to obtain a more efficient importance distribution than the prior. The methodology is motivated by a pharmacokinetic study which investigates the effect of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation on the pharmacokinetics of antibiotics in sheep. The design problem is to find 10 near optimal plasma sampling times which produce precise estimates of pharmacokinetic model parameters/measures of interest. We consider several different utility functions of interest in these studies, which involve the posterior distribution of parameter functions.

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Physical activity (PA) has many beneficial physical and mental health effects. Physical inactivity is considered the fourth leading risk factor for global mortality. At present there are no systematic reviews on PA patterns among South Asian adults residing in the region. The present study aims to systematically evaluate studies on PA patterns in South Asian countries. A five-staged comprehensive search of the literature was conducted in Medline, Web of Science and SciVerse Scopus using keywords ‘Exercise’, ‘Walking’, ‘Physical activity’, ‘Inactivity’, ‘Physical Activity Questionnaire’, ‘International Physical Activity Questionnaire’, ‘IPAQ’, ‘Global Physical Activity Questionnaire’ and ‘GPAQ’, combined with individual country names. The search was restricted to English language articles conducted in humans and published before 31st December 2012. To obtain additional data a manual search of the reference lists of articles was performed. Data were also retrieved from the search of relevant web sites and online resources. The total number of hits obtained from the initial search was 1,771. The total number of research articles included in the present review is eleven (India-8, Sri Lanka-2, Pakistan-1). In addition, eleven country reports (Nepal-3, Bangladesh-2, India-2, Sri Lanka-2, Bhutan-1, Maldives-1) of World Health Organization STEPS survey from the South-Asian countries were retrieved online. In the research articles the overall prevalence of inactivity was as follows; India (18.5%-88.4%), Pakistan (60.1%) and Sri Lanka (11.0%-31.8%). STEPS survey reports were available from all countries except Pakistan. Overall in majority of STEPS surveys females were more inactive compared to males. Furthermore, leisure related inactivity was >75% in studies reporting inactivity in this domain and people were more active in transport domain when compared with the other domains. In conclusion, our results show that there is a wide variation in the prevalence of physical inactivity among South-Asian adults within and between countries. Furthermore, physical inactivity in South Asian adults was associated with several socio-demographic characteristics. Majority of South Asian adults were inactive during their leisure time. These Factors need to be considered when planning future interventions and research aimed at improving PA in the region.

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In cold-formed steel construction, the use of a range of thin, high strength steels (0.35 mm thickness and 550 MPa yield stress) has increased significantly in recent times. A good knowledge of the basic mechanical properties of these steels is needed for a satisfactory use of them. In relation to the modulus of elasticity, the current practice is to assume it to be about 200 GPa for all steel grades. However, tensile tests of these steels have consistently shown that the modulus of elasticity varies with grade of steel and thickness. It was found that it increases to values as high as 240 GPa for smaller thicknesses and higher grades of steel. This paper discusses this topic, presents the tensile test results for a number of steel grades and thicknesses, and attempts to develop a relationship between modulus of elasticity, yield stress and thickness for the steel grades considered in this investigation.

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Insulated Rail Joints (IRJs) are designed to electrically isolate two rails in rail tracks to control the signalling system for safer train operations. Unfortunately the gapped section of the IRJs is structurally weak and often fails prematurely especially in heavy haul tracks, which adversely affects service reliability and efficiency. The IRJs suffer from a number of failure modes; the railhead ratchetting at the gap is, however, regarded as the root cause and attended to in this thesis. Ratchetting increases with the increase in wheel loads; in the absence of a life prediction model, effective management of the IRJs for increased wagon wheel loads has become very challenging. Therefore, the main aim of this thesis is to determine method to predict IRJs' service life. The distinct discontinuity of the railhead at the gap makes the Hertzian theory and the rolling contact shakedown map, commonly used in the continuously welded rails, not applicable to examine the metal ratchetting of the IRJs. Finite Element (FE) technique is, therefore, used to explore the railhead metal ratchetting characteristics in this thesis, the boundary conditions of which has been determined from a full scale study of the IRJ specimens under rolling contact of the loaded wheels. A special purpose test set up containing full-scale wagon wheel was used to apply rolling wheel loads on the railhead edges of the test specimens. The state of the rail end face strains was determined using a non-contact digital imaging technique and used for calibrating the FE model. The basic material parameters for this FE model were obtained through independent uniaxial, monotonic tensile tests on specimens cut from the head hardened virgin rails. The monotonic tensile test data have been used to establish a cyclic load simulation model of the railhead steel specimen; the simulated cyclic load test has provided the necessary data for the three decomposed kinematic hardening plastic strain accumulation model of Chaboche. A performance based service life prediction algorithm for the IRJs was established using the plastic strain accumulation obtained from the Chaboche model. The predicted service lives of IRJs using this algorithm have agreed well with the published data. The finite element model has been used to carry out a sensitivity study on the effects of wheel diameter to the railhead metal plasticity. This study revealed that the depth of the plastic zone at the railhead edges is independent of the wheel diameter; however, large wheel diameter is shown to increase the IRJs' service life.

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Background Bronchiectasis unrelated to cystic fibrosis (CF) is being increasingly recognized in children and adults globally, both in resource-poor and in affluent countries. However, high-quality evidence to inform management is scarce. Oral amoxycillin-clavulanate is often the first antibiotic chosen for non-severe respiratory exacerbations, because of the antibiotic-susceptibility patterns detected in the respiratory pathogens commonly associated with bronchiectasis. Azithromycin has a prolonged half-life, and with its unique anti-bacterial, immunomodulatory, and anti-inflammatory properties, presents an attractive alternative. Our proposed study will test the hypothesis that oral azithromycin is non-inferior (within a 20% margin) to amoxycillin-clavulanate at achieving resolution of non-severe respiratory exacerbations by day 21 of treatment in children with non-CF bronchiectasis. Methods This will be a multicenter, randomized, double-blind, double-dummy, placebo-controlled, parallel group trial involving six Australian and New Zealand centers. In total, 170 eligible children will be stratified by site and bronchiectasis etiology, and randomized (allocation concealed) to receive: 1) azithromycin (5 mg/kg daily) with placebo amoxycillin-clavulanate or 2) amoxycillin-clavulanate (22.5 mg/kg twice daily) with placebo azithromycin for 21 days as treatment for non-severe respiratory exacerbations. Clinical data and a parent-proxy cough-specific quality of life (PC-QOL) score will be obtained at baseline, at the start and resolution of exacerbations, and on day 21. In most children, blood and deep-nasal swabs will also be collected at the same time points. The primary outcome is the proportion of children whose exacerbations have resolved at day 21. The main secondary outcome is the PC-QOL score. Other outcomes are: time to next exacerbation; requirement for hospitalization; duration of exacerbation, and spirometry data. Descriptive viral and bacteriological data from nasal samples and blood inflammatory markers will be reported where available. Discussion Currently, there are no published randomized controlled trials (RCT) to underpin effective, evidence-based management of acute respiratory exacerbations in children with non-CF bronchiectasis. To help address this information gap, we are conducting two RCTs. The first (bronchiectasis exacerbation study; BEST-1) evaluates the efficacy of azithromycin and amoxycillin-clavulanate compared with placebo, and the second RCT (BEST-2), described here, is designed to determine if azithromycin is non-inferior to amoxycillin-clavulanate in achieving symptom resolution by day 21 of treatment in children with acute respiratory exacerbations. Trial registration Australia and New Zealand Clinical Trials Register (ANZCTR) number ACTRN12612000010897. http://www.anzctr.org.au/trial_view.aspx?id=347879

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With unpredictable workloads and a need for a multitude of specialized skills, many main contractors rely heavily on subcontracting to reduce their risks (Bresnen et al., 1985; Beardsworth et al., 1988). This is especially the case In Hong Kong, where the average direct labour content accounts for only around 1% of the total contract sum (Lai, 1987). Extensive usage of subcontracting is also reported in many other countries, including the UK (Gray and Flanagan, 1989) and Japan (Bennett et al., 1987). In addition, and depending upon the scale and complexity of works, it is not uncommon for subcontractors to further sublet their works to lower tier(s) subcontractors. Richter and Mitchell (1982) argued that main contractors can obtain a higher profit margin by reducing their performance costs by subcontracting work to those who have the necessary resources to perform the work more efficiently and economically. Subcontracting is also used strategically to allow firms to employ a minimum work force under fluctuating demand (Usdiken and Sözen, 1985). Through subcontracting, the risks of main contractors are also reduced, as errors in estimating or additional costs caused by delays or extra labour requirements can be absorbed by the subcontractors involved (Woon and Ofori, 2000). Despite these benefits, the quality of work can suffer when incapable or inexperienced subcontractors are employed. Additional problems also exist in the form of bid shopping, unclear accountability, and high fragmentation (Palaneeswaran et al., 2002). A recent CIB TG 23 International Conference, October 2003, Hong Kong report produced by the Hong Kong Construction Industry Review Committee (CIRC) points to development of a framework to help distinguish between capable and incapable subcontractors (Tang, 2001). This paper describes research aims at identifying and prioritising criteria for use in such a framework.

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We have studied the vibrational spectra of the mineral bayldonite, a hydroxy arsenate of copper and lead of formula Cu3Pb(AsO3OH)2(OH)2 from the type locality, the Penberthy Croft Mine, St Hilary, Mount's Bay District, Cornwall, England.and relate the spectra to the mineral structure. Raman bands at 896 and 838 cm-1are assigned to the (AsO4)3- ν1 symmetric stretching mode and the second to the (AsO4)3- ν3 antisymmetric stretching mode. It is noted that the position of the symmetric stretching mode is at a higher position than the antisymmetric stretching mode. It is proposed that the Raman bands at 889 and 845 cm-1 are symmetric and antisymmetric stretching modes of the (HOAsO3)2- units. Raman bands of bayldonite at 490 and 500 cm-1 are assigned to the (AsO4)3- ν4 bending modes. Raman bands for bayldonite are noted at 396, 408 and 429 cm-1 and are assigned to the (AsO4)3- ν2 bending modes. A comparison is made with spectra of the other basic copper arsenate minerals, namely cornubite, olivenite, cornwallite.

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Objective: To assess changes in the cost and availability of a standard basket of healthy food items (the Healthy Food Access Basket [HFAB]) in Queensland over time. Design and participants: A series of four cross-sectional surveys (in 1998, 2000, 2001 and 2004) describing the cost and availability of foods in the HFAB over time. In the latest survey, 97 Queensland food stores across the five Australian Bureau of Statistics remoteness categories were compared. Main outcome measures: Cost comparisons for HFAB items by remoteness category for the 97 stores surveyed in 2004; changes in cost and availability of foods in the 81 stores surveyed since 2000; comparisons of food prices in the 56 stores surveyed in 1998, 2000, 2001 and 2004. Results: In 2004, the Queensland mean cost of the HFAB was $395.28 a fortnight. The cost of the HFAB was 29.6%($113.89) higher in “very remote” areas than in “major cities” (P<0.001). Between 2001 and 2004, the Queensland mean cost of the HFAB increased by 14.0% ($48.45), while in very remote areas the cost increased by 18.0% ($76.93) (P<0.001). Since 2000, the annualised per cent increase in cost of the HFAB has been higher than the increase in Consumer Price Index for food in Brisbane. The cost of healthy foods has risen more than the cost of some less nutritious foods, so that the latter are now relatively more affordable. Conclusions: Consumers, particularly those in very remote locations, need to pay substantially more for basic healthy foods than they did a few years ago. Higher prices are likely to be a barrier to good health among people of low socioeconomic status and other vulnerable groups. Interventions to make basic healthy food affordable and accessible to all would help reduce the high burden of chronic disease.

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A suite of plant expression vectors (pPLEX), constructed from the gene regulation signals from subterranean clover stunt virus (SCSV) genome, has previously been used in dicot transformation for a variety of applications in plant biotechnology. To assess their use for the transformation of monocots, a number of modifications were made to the basic vector series and assessed in rice. In their unmodified forms, the SCSV promoters directed low levels of gene expression, however, insertion of an intron between the promoter and the transgene open reading frame (analogous to the rice actin and maize ubiquitin promoter systems) increased transgene expression 50-fold. The expression patterns from the intron-modified SCSV (segments 4 and 7) promoters were very similar to those directed by the actin or ubiquitin promoters. All promoter systems investigated directed expression that appeared to be constitutive within leaf tissue, and localised to the epidermal and vascular tissues of the root. The pPLEX vectors described here are an important counterpart to the dicot pPLEX series and have the potential to be useful in monocot research and biotechnology.

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This paper presents a vulnerability within the generic object oriented substation event (GOOSE) communication protocol. It describes an exploit of the vulnerability and proposes a number of attack variants. The attacks sends GOOSE frames containing higher status numbers to the receiving intelligent electronic device (IED). This prevents legitimate GOOSE frames from being processed and effectively causes a hijacking of the communication channel, which can be used to implement a denial–of–service (DoS) or manipulate the subscriber (unless a status number roll-over occurs). The authors refer to this attack as a poisoning of the subscriber. A number of GOOSE poisoning attacks are evaluated experimentally on a test bed and demonstrated to be successful.

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This paper examines the Assessment and Feedback aspects of Studio Teaching as Creative Arts pedagogy. Prompted by USQ’s newly offered Bachelor of Creative Arts (BCA), the author has developed an Assessment Matrix specifically designed to satisfy a number of imperatives, including: • ‘objectifying’ the subjective aspects of creative practice as assessable coursework/research • providing the means by which accurate, detailed, personalised and confidential feedback may be provided to students individually • providing consistent, accurate, meaningful assessment records for student, lecturer, and institution • ensuring consistency, continuity, and transparency of assessment processes and records to satisfy quality audits • minimising marking and assessment time, whilst maximising assessment integrity and depth • requiring only basic level skills and knowledge of a computer application already in common use (Microsoft Excel) • adaptability to a range of creative courses ‐ across disciplines This Assessment Matrix has been in development (and trialled) since January 2009.