221 resultados para structural models of credit risk


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Pollution on electrical insulators is one of the greatest causes of failure of substations subjected to high levels of salinity and environmental pollution. Considering leakage current as the main indicator of pollution on insulators, this paper focus on establishing the effect of the environmental conditions on the risk of failure due to pollution on insulators and determining the significant change in the magnitude of the pollution on the insulators during dry and humid periods. Hierarchical segmentation analysis was used to establish the effect of environmental conditions on the risk of failure due to pollution on insulators. The Kruskal-Wallis test was utilized to determine the significant changes in the magnitude of the pollution due to climate periods. An important result was the discovery that leakage current was more common on insulators during dry periods than humid ones. There was also a higher risk of failure due to pollution during dry periods. During the humid period, various temperatures and wind directions produced a small change in the risk of failure. As a technical result, operators of electrical substations can now identify the cause of an increase in risk of failure due to pollution in the area. The research provides a contribution towards the behaviour of the leakage current under conditions similar to those of the Colombian Caribbean coast and how they affect the risk of failure of the substation due to pollution.

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A model based on the cluster process representation of the self-exciting process model in White and Porter 2013 and Ruggeri and Soyer 2008is derived to allow for variation in the excitation effects for terrorist events in a self-exciting or cluster process model. The details of the model derivation and implementation are given and applied to data from the Global Terrorism Database from 2000–2012. Results are discussed in terms of practical interpretation along with implications for a theoretical model paralleling existing criminological theory.

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Molecular phylogenetic studies of homologous sequences of nucleotides often assume that the underlying evolutionary process was globally stationary, reversible, and homogeneous (SRH), and that a model of evolution with one or more site-specific and time-reversible rate matrices (e.g., the GTR rate matrix) is enough to accurately model the evolution of data over the whole tree. However, an increasing body of data suggests that evolution under these conditions is an exception, rather than the norm. To address this issue, several non-SRH models of molecular evolution have been proposed, but they either ignore heterogeneity in the substitution process across sites (HAS) or assume it can be modeled accurately using the distribution. As an alternative to these models of evolution, we introduce a family of mixture models that approximate HAS without the assumption of an underlying predefined statistical distribution. This family of mixture models is combined with non-SRH models of evolution that account for heterogeneity in the substitution process across lineages (HAL). We also present two algorithms for searching model space and identifying an optimal model of evolution that is less likely to over- or underparameterize the data. The performance of the two new algorithms was evaluated using alignments of nucleotides with 10 000 sites simulated under complex non-SRH conditions on a 25-tipped tree. The algorithms were found to be very successful, identifying the correct HAL model with a 75% success rate (the average success rate for assigning rate matrices to the tree's 48 edges was 99.25%) and, for the correct HAL model, identifying the correct HAS model with a 98% success rate. Finally, parameter estimates obtained under the correct HAL-HAS model were found to be accurate and precise. The merits of our new algorithms were illustrated with an analysis of 42 337 second codon sites extracted from a concatenation of 106 alignments of orthologous genes encoded by the nuclear genomes of Saccharomyces cerevisiae, S. paradoxus, S. mikatae, S. kudriavzevii, S. castellii, S. kluyveri, S. bayanus, and Candida albicans. Our results show that second codon sites in the ancestral genome of these species contained 49.1% invariable sites, 39.6% variable sites belonging to one rate category (V1), and 11.3% variable sites belonging to a second rate category (V2). The ancestral nucleotide content was found to differ markedly across these three sets of sites, and the evolutionary processes operating at the variable sites were found to be non-SRH and best modeled by a combination of eight edge-specific rate matrices (four for V1 and four for V2). The number of substitutions per site at the variable sites also differed markedly, with sites belonging to V1 evolving slower than those belonging to V2 along the lineages separating the seven species of Saccharomyces. Finally, sites belonging to V1 appeared to have ceased evolving along the lineages separating S. cerevisiae, S. paradoxus, S. mikatae, S. kudriavzevii, and S. bayanus, implying that they might have become so selectively constrained that they could be considered invariable sites in these species.

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Animal models of critical illness are vital in biomedical research. They provide possibilities for the investigation of pathophysiological processes that may not otherwise be possible in humans. In order to be clinically applicable, the model should simulate the critical care situation realistically, including anaesthesia, monitoring, sampling, utilising appropriate personnel skill mix, and therapeutic interventions. There are limited data documenting the constitution of ideal technologically advanced large animal critical care practices and all the processes of the animal model. In this paper, we describe the procedure of animal preparation, anaesthesia induction and maintenance, physiologic monitoring, data capture, point-of-care technology, and animal aftercare that has been successfully used to study several novel ovine models of critical illness. The relevant investigations are on respiratory failure due to smoke inhalation, transfusion related acute lung injury, endotoxin-induced proteogenomic alterations, haemorrhagic shock, septic shock, brain death, cerebral microcirculation, and artificial heart studies. We have demonstrated the functionality of monitoring practices during anaesthesia required to provide a platform for undertaking systematic investigations in complex ovine models of critical illness.

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Ankylosing spondylitis is a common, highly heritable inflammatory arthritis affecting primarily the spine and pelvis. In addition to HLA-B*27 alleles, 12 loci have previously been identified that are associated with ankylosing spondylitis in populations of European ancestry, and 2 associated loci have been identified in Asians. In this study, we used the Illumina Immunochip microarray to perform a case-control association study involving 10,619 individuals with ankylosing spondylitis (cases) and 15,145 controls. We identified 13 new risk loci and 12 additional ankylosing spondylitis-associated haplotypes at 11 loci. Two ankylosing spondylitis-associated regions have now been identified encoding four aminopeptidases that are involved in peptide processing before major histocompatibility complex (MHC) class I presentation. Protective variants at two of these loci are associated both with reduced aminopeptidase function and with MHC class I cell surface expression.

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In order to progress beyond currently available medical devices and implants, the concept of tissue engineering has moved into the centre of biomedical research worldwide. The aim of this approach is not to replace damaged tissue with an implant or device but rather to prompt the patient's own tissue to enact a regenerative response by using a tissue-engineered construct to assemble new functional and healthy tissue. More recently, it has been suggested that the combination of Synthetic Biology and translational tissue-engineering techniques could enhance the field of personalized medicine, not only from a regenerative medicine perspective, but also to provide frontier technologies for building and transforming the research landscape in the field of in vitro and in vivo disease models.

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Background and aims. Primary sclerosing cholangitis (PSC) is a chronic cholestatic liver disease characterized by progressive inflammation and fibrosis of the bile ducts eventually leading to biliary cirrhosis. Recent genetic studies in PSC have identified associations at 2q13, 2q35, 3p21, 4q27, 13q31 and suggestive association at 10p15. The aim of this study was to further characterize and refine the genetic architecture of PSC. Methods. We analyzed previously reported associated SNPs at four of these non-HLA loci and 59 SNPs tagging the IL-2/IL-21 (4q27) and IL2RA (10p15) loci in 992 UK PSC cases and 5162 healthy UK controls. Results. The most associated SNPs identified were rs3197999 (3p21 (MST1), p = 1.9 × 10 -6, OR A vs G = 1.28, 95% CI (1.16-1.42)); rs4147359 (10p15 (IL2RA), p = 2.6 × 10 -4, OR A vs G = 1.20, 95% CI (1.09-1.33)) and rs12511287 (4q27 (IL-2/IL-21), p = 3.0 × 10 -4, OR A vs T = 1.21, 95% CI (1.09-1.35)). In addition, we performed a meta-analysis for selected SNPs using published summary statistics from recent studies. We observed genome-wide significance for rs3197999 (3p21 (MST1), P combined = 3.8 × 10 -12) and rs4147359 (10p15 (IL2RA), P combined = 1.5 × 10 -8). Conclusion. We have for the first time confirmed the association of PSC with genetic variants at 10p15 (IL2RA) locus at genome-wide significance and replicated the associations at MST1 and IL-2/IL-21 loci in a large homogeneous UK population. These results strongly implicate the role of IL-2/IL2RA pathway in PSC and provide further confirmation of MST1 association. © Informa Healthcare.

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Objective: To compare the differences in the hemodynamic parameters of abdominal aortic aneurysm (AAA) between fluid-structure interaction model (FSIM) and fluid-only model (FM), so as to discuss their application in the research of AAA. Methods: An idealized AAA model was created based on patient-specific AAA data. In FM, the flow, pressure and wall shear stress (WSS) were computed using finite volume method. In FSIM, an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian algorithm was used to solve the flow in a continuously deforming geometry. The hemodynamic parameters of both models were obtained for discussion. Results: Under the same inlet velocity, there were only two symmetrical vortexes in the AAA dilation area for FSIM. In contrast, four recirculation areas existed in FM; two were main vortexes and the other two were secondary flow, which were located between the main recirculation area and the arterial wall. Six local pressure concentrations occurred in the distal end of AAA and the recirculation area for FM. However, there were only two local pressure concentrations in FSIM. The vortex center of the recirculation area in FSIM was much more close to the distal end of AAA and the area was much larger because of AAA expansion. Four extreme values of WSS existed at the proximal of AAA, the point of boundary layer separation, the point of flow reattachment and the distal end of AAA, respectively, in both FM and FSIM. The maximum wall stress and the largest wall deformation were both located at the proximal and distal end of AAA. Conclusions: The number and center of the recirculation area for both models are different, while the change of vortex is closely associated with the AAA growth. The largest WSS of FSIM is 36% smaller than that of FM. Both the maximum wall stress and largest wall displacement shall increase with the outlet pressure increasing. FSIM needs to be considered for studying the relationship between AAA growth and shear stress.

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Background: High-resolution magnetic resonance (MR) imaging has been used for MR imaging-based structural stress analysis of atherosclerotic plaques. The biomechanical stress profile of stable plaques has been observed to differ from that of unstable plaques; however, the role that structural stresses play in determining plaque vulnerability remains speculative. Methods: A total of 61 patients with previous history of symptomatic carotid artery disease underwent carotid plaque MR imaging. Plaque components of the index artery such as fibrous tissue, lipid content and plaque haemorrhage (PH) were delineated and used for finite element analysis-based maximum structural stress (M-C Stress) quantification. These patients were followed up for 2 years. The clinical end point was occurrence of an ischaemic cerebrovascular event. The association of the time to the clinical end point with plaque morphology and M-C Stress was analysed. Results: During a median follow-up duration of 514 days, 20% of patients (n=12) experienced an ischaemic event in the territory of the index carotid artery. Cox regression analysis indicated that M-C Stress (hazard ratio (HR): 12.98 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.32-26.67, pZ0.02), fibrous cap (FC) disruption (HR: 7.39 (95% CI: 1.61e33.82), p Z 0.009) and PH (HR: 5.85 (95% CI: 1.27e26.77), p Z 0.02) are associated with the development of subsequent cerebrovascular events. Plaques associated with future events had higher M-C Stress than those which had remained asymptomatic (median (interquartile range, IQR): 330 kPa (229e494) vs. 254 kPa (166-290), p Z0.04). Conclusions: High biomechanical structural stresses, in addition to FC rupture and PH, are associated with subsequent cerebrovascular events.

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Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified numerous common prostate cancer (PrCa) susceptibility loci. We have fine-mapped 64 GWAS regions known at the conclusion of the iCOGS study using large-scale genotyping and imputation in 25 723 PrCa cases and 26 274 controls of European ancestry. We detected evidence for multiple independent signals at 16 regions, 12 of which contained additional newly identified significant associations. A single signal comprising a spectrum of correlated variation was observed at 39 regions; 35 of which are now described by a novel more significantly associated lead SNP, while the originally reported variant remained as the lead SNP only in 4 regions. We also confirmed two association signals in Europeans that had been previously reported only in East-Asian GWAS. Based on statistical evidence and linkage disequilibrium (LD) structure, we have curated and narrowed down the list of the most likely candidate causal variants for each region. Functional annotation using data from ENCODE filtered for PrCa cell lines and eQTL analysis demonstrated significant enrichment for overlap with bio-features within this set. By incorporating the novel risk variants identified here alongside the refined data for existing association signals, we estimate that these loci now explain ∼38.9% of the familial relative risk of PrCa, an 8.9% improvement over the previously reported GWAS tag SNPs. This suggests that a significant fraction of the heritability of PrCa may have been hidden during the discovery phase of GWAS, in particular due to the presence of multiple independent signals within the same region.

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The structure of the capsular polysaccharide (CPS) recovered from D46, an extensively antibiotic resistant ST25 Acinetobacter baumannii clinical isolate, was elucidated. The structure was resolved on the basis of NMR spectroscopy and chemical analyses, and was found to contain a branched neutral pentasaccharide with a backbone composed of GalpNAc and Galp residues, all d configured, and a d-Glcp side group. The KL14 gene cluster found in the D46 genome includes genes for four glycosyltransferases but no modules for synthesis of complex sugars, and this is consistent with the structure of K14. The K14 structure and KL14 sequence clarify the relationship between the structure and K locus sequence for A. nosocomialis isolate LUH5541. The identity of the first sugar of the K14 repeat unit (K unit), and the functions of the four encoded glycosyltransferases and Wzy polymerase were predicted.

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Introduction: Injuries in the lower extremity are considered to have multifactorial causes, whilst people with heel pain represent the most frequent cause of visits to health professionals. Managing these patients can be very difficult. The purpose of this research is to identify key variables which can influence foot health in patients with heel pain. Materials and method: A cross-sectional observational study was carried out with a sample of sixty-two participants recruited from the Educational Welfare Unit of the University of Malaga. The therapists, blinded for the study, fill in the data with anthropometric information and the FPI, while participants fill in the foot health status questionnaire, FHSQ. The most significant results reveal that there is a moderate relation between the clinical variables and the FHSQ commands. The most significant contribution is the BMI in the foot health status questionnaire. Conclusion: The variables which can help manage clinical subjects with heel pain are age, BMI, footwear and FPI (left foot).

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Objectives To review models of care for older adults with cancer, with a focus on the role of the oncology nurse in geriatric oncology care. International exemplars of geriatric oncology nursing care are discussed. Data source Published peer reviewed literature, web-based resources, professional society materials, and the authors' experience. Conclusion Nursing care for older patients with cancer is complex and requires integrating knowledge from multiple disciplines that blends the sciences of geriatrics, oncology, and nursing. and which recognizes the dimensions of quality of life. Implications for Nursing Practice: Oncology nurses can benefit from learning key skills of comprehensive geriatric screening and assessment to improve the care they provide for older adults with cancer.

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BACKGROUND There has been intensive debate whether migraine with aura (MA) and migraine without aura (MO) should be considered distinct subtypes or part of the same disease spectrum. There is also discussion to what extent migraine cases collected in specialised headache clinics differ from cases from population cohorts, and how female cases differ from male cases with respect to their migraine. To assess the genetic overlap between these migraine subgroups, we examined genome-wide association (GWA) results from analysis of 23,285 migraine cases and 95,425 population-matched controls. METHODS Detailed heterogeneity analysis of single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) effects (odds ratios) between migraine subgroups was performed for the 12 independent SNP loci significantly associated (p < 5 x 10(-8); thus surpassing the threshold for genome-wide significance) with migraine susceptibility. Overall genetic overlap was assessed using SNP effect concordance analysis (SECA) at over 23,000 independent SNPs. RESULTS: Significant heterogeneity of SNP effects (p het < 1.4 x 10(-3)) was observed between the MA and MO subgroups (for SNP rs9349379), and between the clinic- and population-based subgroups (for SNPs rs10915437, rs6790925 and rs6478241). However, for all 12 SNPs the risk-increasing allele was the same, and SECA found the majority of genome-wide SNP effects to be in the same direction across the subgroups. CONCLUSIONS Any differences in common genetic risk across these subgroups are outweighed by the similarities. Meta-analysis of additional migraine GWA datasets, regardless of their major subgroup composition, will identify new susceptibility loci for migraine.

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This project investigated the calcium distributions of the skin, and the growth patterns of skin substitutes grown in the laboratory, using mathematical models. The research found that the calcium distribution in the upper layer of the skin is controlled by three different mechanisms, not one as previously thought. The research also suggests that tight junctions, which are adhesions between neighbouring skin cells, cannot be solely responsible for the differences in the growth patterns of skin substitutes and normal skin.