Conducting statistical tests of hypotheses : five common misconceptions found in transportation research

Most statistical methods use hypothesis testing. Analysis of variance, regression, discrete choice models, contingency tables, and other analysis methods commonly used in transportation research share hypothesis testing as the means of making inferences about the population of interest. Despite the fact that hypothesis testing has been a cornerstone of empirical research for many years, various aspects of hypothesis tests commonly are incorrectly applied, misinterpreted, and ignored—by novices and expert researchers alike. On initial glance, hypothesis testing appears straightforward: develop the null and alternative hypotheses, compute the test statistic to compare to a standard distribution, estimate the probability of rejecting the null hypothesis, and then make claims about the importance of the finding. This is an oversimplification of the process of hypothesis testing. Hypothesis testing as applied in empirical research is examined here. The reader is assumed to have a basic knowledge of the role of hypothesis testing in various statistical methods. Through the use of an example, the mechanics of hypothesis testing is first reviewed. Then, five precautions surrounding the use and interpretation of hypothesis tests are developed; examples of each are provided to demonstrate how errors are made, and solutions are identified so similar errors can be avoided. Remedies are provided for common errors, and conclusions are drawn on how to use the results of this paper to improve the conduct of empirical research in transportation.

Concurrent and prospective associations between physical activity, walking and mental health in older women

Background Leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) shows promise for reducing the risk of poor mental health in later life, although gender- and age-specific research is required to clarify this association. This study examined the concurrent and prospective relationships between both LTPA and walking with mental health in older women. Methods Community-dwelling women aged 73–78 years completed mailed surveys in 1999, 2002 and 2005 for the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health. Respondents reported their weekly minutes of walking, moderate LTPA and vigorous LTPA. Mental health was defined as the number of depression and anxiety symptoms, as assessed with the Goldberg Anxiety and Depression Scale (GADS). Multivariable linear mixed models, adjusted for socio-demographic and health-related variables, were used to examine associations between five levels of LTPA (none, very low, low, intermediate and high) and GADS scores. For women who reported walking as their only LTPA, associations between walking and GADS scores were also examined. Women who reported depression or anxiety in 1999 were excluded, resulting in data from 6653 women being included in these analyses. Results Inverse dose–response associations were observed between both LTPA and walking with GADS scores in concurrent and prospective models (p<0.001). Even low levels of LTPA and walking were associated with lowered scores. The lowest scores were observed in women reporting high levels of LTPA or walking. Conclusion The results support an inverse dose–response association between both LTPA and walking with mental health, over 3 years in older women without depression or anxiety.

Soil Carbon Turnover Measurement by Physical Fractionation at a Forest-to-Pasture Chronosequence in the Brazilian Amazon

The effect of conversion from forest-to-pasture upon soil carbon stocks has been intensively discussed, but few studies focus on how this land-use change affects carbon (C) distribution across soil fractions in the Amazon basin. We investigated this in the 20 cm depth along a chronosequence of sites from native forest to three successively older pastures. We performed a physicochemical fractionation of bulk soil samples to better understand the mechanisms by which soil C is stabilized and evaluate the contribution of each C fraction to total soil C. Additionally, we used a two-pool model to estimate the mean residence time (MRT) for the slow and active pool C in each fraction. Soil C increased with conversion from forest-to-pasture in the particulate organic matter (> 250 mu m), microaggregate (53-250 mu m), and d-clay (< 2 mu m) fractions. The microaggregate comprised the highest soil C content after the conversion from forest-to-pasture. The C content of the d-silt fraction decreased with time since conversion to pasture. Forest-derived C remained in all fractions with the highest concentration in the finest fractions, with the largest proportion of forest-derived soil C associated with clay minerals. Results from this work indicate that microaggregate formation is sensitive to changes in management and might serve as an indicator for management-induced soil carbon changes, and the soil C changes in the fractions are dependent on soil texture.

Does physical protection of soil organic matter attenuate temperature sensitivity?

Global climate change may induce accelerated soil organic matter (SOM) decomposition through increased soil temperature, and thus impact the C balance in soils. We hypothesized that compartmentalization of substrates and decomposers in the soil matrix would decrease SOM sensitivity to temperature. We tested our hypothesis with three short-term laboratory incubations with differing physical protection treatments conducted at different temperatures. Overall, CO2 efflux increased with temperature, but responses among physical protection treatments were not consistently different. Similar respiration quotient (Q(10)) values across physical protection treatments did not support our original hypothesis that the largest Q(10) values would be observed in the treatment with the least physical protection. Compartmentalization of substrates and decomposers is known to reduce the decomposability of otherwise labile material, but the hypothesized attenuation of temperature sensitivity was not detected, and thus the sensitivity is probably driven by the thermodynamics of biochemical reactions as expressed by Arrhenius-type equations.

Impact of soil texture on the distribution of soil organic matter in physical and chemical fractions

Previous research on the protection of soil organic C from decomposition suggests that soil texture affects soil C stocks. However, different pools of soil organic matter (SOM) might be differently related to soil texture. Our objective was to examine how soil texture differentially alters the distribution of organic C within physically and chemically defined pools of unprotected and protected SOM. We collected samples from two soil texture gradients where other variables influencing soil organic C content were held constant. One texture gradient (16-60% clay) was located near Stewart Valley, Saskatchewan, Canada and the other (25-50% clay) near Cygnet, OH. Soils were physically fractionated into coarse- and fine-particulate organic matter (POM), silt- and clay-sized particles within microaggregates, and easily dispersed silt-and clay-sized particles outside of microaggregates. Whole-soil organic C concentration was positively related to silt plus clay content at both sites. We found no relationship between soil texture and unprotected C (coarse- and fine-POM C). Biochemically protected C (nonhydrolyzable C) increased with increasing clay content in whole-soil samples, but the proportion of nonhydrolyzable C within silt- and clay-sized fractions was unchanged. As the amount of silt or clay increased, the amount of C stabilized within easily dispersed and microaggregate-associated silt or clay fractions decreased. Our results suggest that for a given level of C inputs, the relationship between mineral surface area and soil organic matter varies with soil texture for physically and biochemically protected C fractions. Because soil texture acts directly and indirectly on various protection mechanisms, it may not be a universal predictor of whole-soil C content.

Quantum theory beyond the physical : information in context

Measures and theories of information abound, but there are few formalised methods for treating the contextuality that can manifest in different information systems. Quantum theory provides one possible formalism for treating information in context. This paper introduces a quantum-like model of the human mental lexicon, and shows one set of recent experimental data suggesting that concept combinations can indeed behave non-separably. There is some reason to believe that the human mental lexicon displays entanglement.

Who benefits from marriage?

The phenomenon that married men earn higher average wages than unmarried men, the so-called marriage premium, is well known. However, the robustness of the marriage premium across the wage distribution and the underlying causes of the marriage premium deserve closer scrutiny. Focusing on the entire wage distribution and employing recently developed semi-nonparametric tests for quantile treatment effects, our findings cast doubt on the robustness of the premium. We find that the premium is explained by selection above the median, whereas a positive premium is obtained only at very low wages. We argue that the causal effect at low wages is probably attributable to employer discrimination.

Construction, application and validation of selection evaluation model (SEM) for intelligent HVAC control system

Design teams are confronted with the quandary of choosing apposite building control systems to suit the needs of particular intelligent building projects, due to the availability of innumerable ‘intelligent’ building products and a dearth of inclusive evaluation tools. This paper is organised to develop a model for facilitating the selection evaluation for intelligent HVAC control systems for commercial intelligent buildings. To achieve these objectives, systematic research activities have been conducted to first develop, test and refine the general conceptual model using consecutive surveys; then, to convert the developed conceptual framework into a practical model; and, finally, to evaluate the effectiveness of the model by means of expert validation. The results of the surveys are that ‘total energy use’ is perceived as the top selection criterion, followed by the‘system reliability and stability’, ‘operating and maintenance costs’, and ‘control of indoor humidity and temperature’. This research not only presents a systematic and structured approach to evaluate candidate intelligent HVAC control system against the critical selection criteria (CSC), but it also suggests a benchmark for the selection of one control system candidate against another.

New criteria for evaluating methods of identifying hot spots

Identification of hot spots, also known as the sites with promise, black spots, accident-prone locations, or priority investigation locations, is an important and routine activity for improving the overall safety of roadway networks. Extensive literature focuses on methods for hot spot identification (HSID). A subset of this considerable literature is dedicated to conducting performance assessments of various HSID methods. A central issue in comparing HSID methods is the development and selection of quantitative and qualitative performance measures or criteria. The authors contend that currently employed HSID assessment criteria—namely false positives and false negatives—are necessary but not sufficient, and additional criteria are needed to exploit the ordinal nature of site ranking data. With the intent to equip road safety professionals and researchers with more useful tools to compare the performances of various HSID methods and to improve the level of HSID assessments, this paper proposes four quantitative HSID evaluation tests that are, to the authors’ knowledge, new and unique. These tests evaluate different aspects of HSID method performance, including reliability of results, ranking consistency, and false identification consistency and reliability. It is intended that road safety professionals apply these different evaluation tests in addition to existing tests to compare the performances of various HSID methods, and then select the most appropriate HSID method to screen road networks to identify sites that require further analysis. This work demonstrates four new criteria using 3 years of Arizona road section accident data and four commonly applied HSID methods [accident frequency ranking, accident rate ranking, accident reduction potential, and empirical Bayes (EB)]. The EB HSID method reveals itself as the superior method in most of the evaluation tests. In contrast, identifying hot spots using accident rate rankings performs the least well among the tests. The accident frequency and accident reduction potential methods perform similarly, with slight differences explained. The authors believe that the four new evaluation tests offer insight into HSID performance heretofore unavailable to analysts and researchers.

A systematic review of the association between physical activity and colorectal cancer risk

This review evaluated the strength of the evidence for a causal relationship between physical activity (PA) and colorectal cancer (CRC). A systematic review of databases through February 2008 was conducted to identify studies that assessed the association between total or recreational PA and incidence or mortality of CRC (including CRC, rectal cancer, colon cancer, and proximal or distal colon cancer). Studies were evaluated for significant associations between PA and risk of CRC endpoints and for evidence of dose–response relationships in the highest quality studies. Twenty cohort studies were evaluated; 11 were high-quality. Fifty percent of all studies and 64%of highest quality studies reported at least one significant association between PA and risk of a CRC endpoint (Po0.05).However, only 28%of all analyses (31% of analyses of highest quality studies) were significant (Po0.05). Only 40% of analyses of highest quality studies resulted in a significant P for trend (Po0.05); however, a non-significant inverse linear association between PA and colon cancer riskwas apparent.Heterogeneity in the evidence from all studies and from the highest quality studies was evident. Evidence from cohort studies is not sufficient to claim a convincing relationship exists between PA and CRC risk.

Do walking and leisure-time physical activity protect against arthritis in older women?

Objective: To examine the prospective dose–response relationships between both leisure-time physical activity (LTPA) and walking with self-reported arthritis in older women. Design, setting and participants: Data came from women aged 73–78 years who completed mailed surveys in 1999, 2002 and 2005 for the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women’s Health. Women reported their weekly minutes of walking and moderate to vigorous physical activities. They also reported on whether they had been diagnosed with, or treated for, arthritis since the previous survey. General estimating equation analyses were performed to examine the longitudinal relationship between LTPA and arthritis and, for women who reported walking as their only physical activity, the longitudinal relationship between walking and arthritis. Women who reported arthritis or a limited ability to walk in 1999 were excluded, resulting in data from 3613 women eligible for inclusion in these analyses. Main results: ORs for self-reported arthritis were lowest for women who reported “moderate” levels of LTPA (OR 0.78; 95% CI 0.67 to 0.92), equivalent to 75 to <150 minutes of moderate-intensity LTPA per week. Slightly higher odds ratios were found for women who reported “high” (OR 0.81; 95% CI 0.69 to 0.95) or “very high” (OR 0.84; 95% CI 0.72 to 0.98) LTPA levels, indicating no further benefit from increased activity. For women whose only activity was walking, an inverse dose–response relationship between walking and arthritis was seen. Conclusions: The results support an inverse association between both LTPA and walking with self-reported arthritis over 6 years in older women who are able to walk.

Factors associated with physical activity in Australians with hip or knee osteoarthritis

Background: Physical activity (PA) is recommended for managing osteoarthritis (OA). However, few people with OA are physically active. Understanding the factors associated with PA is necessary to increase PA in this population. This cross-sectional study examined factors associated with leisure-time PA, stretching exercises, and strengthening exercises in people with OA. Methods: For a mail survey, 485 individuals, aged 68.0 y (SD=10.6) with hip or knee OA, were asked about factors that may influence PA participation, including use of non-PA OA management strategies and both psychological and physical health-related factors. Associations between factors and each PA outcome were examined in multivariable logistic regression models. Results: Non-PA management strategies were the main factors associated with the outcomes. Information/education courses, heat/cold treatments, and paracetamol were associated with stretching and strengthening exercises (P<0.05). Hydrotherapy and magnet therapy were associated with leisure-time PA; using orthotics and massage therapy, with stretching exercises; and occupational therapy, with strengthening exercises (P<0.05). Few psychological or health15 related factors were associated with the outcomes. Conclusions: Some management strategies may make it easier for people with OA to be physically active, and could be promoted to encourage PA. Providers of strategies are potential avenues for recruiting people with OA into PA programs.

Bottlenecks detection of track allocation schemes at rail stations by Petri nets

Robustness of the track allocation problem is rarely addressed in literatures and the obtained track allocation schemes (TAS) embody some bottlenecks. Therefore, an approach to detect bottlenecks is needed to support local optimization. First a TAS is transformed to an executable model by Petri nets. Then disturbances analysis is performed using the model and the indicators of the total trains' departure delays are collected to detect bottlenecks when each train suffers a disturbance. Finally, the results of the tests based on a rail hub linking six lines and a TAS about thirty minutes show that the minimum buffer time is 21 seconds and there are two bottlenecks where the buffer times are 57 and 44 seconds respectively, and it indicates that the bottlenecks do not certainly locate at the area where there is minimum buffer time. The proposed approach can further support selection of multi schemes and robustness optimization.

Socioeconomic inequality profiles in physical and developmental health from 0-7 years : Australian National Study

Background: Early and persistent exposure to socioeconomic disadvantage impairs children’s health and wellbeing. However, it is unclear at what age health inequalities emerge or whether these relationships vary across ages and outcomes. We address these issues using cross-sectional Australian population data on the physical and developmental health of children at ages 0-1, 2-3, 4-5 and 6-7 years. Methods: 10 physical and developmental health outcomes were assessed in 2004 and 2006 for two cohorts each comprising around 5000 children. Socioeconomic position was measured as a composite of parental education, occupation and household income. Results: Lower socioeconomic position was associated with increased odds for poor outcomes. For physical health outcomes and socio-emotional competence, associations were similar across age groups and were consistent with either threshold effects (for poor general health, special healthcare needs and socio-emotional competence) or gradient effects (for illness with wheeze, sleep problems and injury). For socio-emotional difficulties, communication, vocabulary and emergent literacy, stronger socioeconomic associations were observed. The patterns were linear or accelerated and varied across ages. Conclusions: From very early childhood, social disadvantage was associated with poorer outcomes across most measures of physical and developmental health and showed no evidence of either strengthening or attenuating at older compared to younger ages. Findings confirm the importance of early childhood as a key focus for health promotion and prevention efforts.