A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm to incorporate model uncertainty in Bayesian sequential design

Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm that can be used for any one-at-a-time Bayesian sequential design problem in the presence of model uncertainty where discrete data are encountered. Our focus is on adaptive design for model discrimination but the methodology is applicable if one has a different design objective such as parameter estimation or prediction. An SMC algorithm is run in parallel for each model and the algorithm relies on a convenient estimator of the evidence of each model which is essentially a function of importance sampling weights. Other methods for this task such as quadrature, often used in design, suffer from the curse of dimensionality. Approximating posterior model probabilities in this way allows us to use model discrimination utility functions derived from information theory that were previously difficult to compute except for conjugate models. A major benefit of the algorithm is that it requires very little problem specific tuning. We demonstrate the methodology on three applications, including discriminating between models for decline in motor neuron numbers in patients suffering from neurological diseases such as Motor Neuron disease.

In search of the Korean digital wave

This article sets the context for this special themed issue on the 'Korean digital wave' by considering the symbiotic relationship between digital technologies, their techniques and practices, their uses and the affordances they provide, and Korea's 'compressed modernity' and swift industrialisation. It underscores the importance of interrogating a range of groundbreaking developments and innovations within Korea's digital mediascapes, and its creative and cultural industries, in order to gain a complex understanding of one of Australia's most significant export markets and trading partners. Given the financial and political commitment in Australia to a high-speed broadband network that aims to stimulate economic and cultural activity, recent technological developments in Korea, and the double-edged role played by government policy in shaping the 'Korean digital wave', merit close attention from media and communications scholars.

Towards semantic search and inference in electronic medical records : an approach using concept-based information retrieval

Background This paper presents a novel approach to searching electronic medical records that is based on concept matching rather than keyword matching. Aim The concept-based approach is intended to overcome specific challenges we identified in searching medical records. Method Queries and documents were transformed from their term-based originals into medical concepts as defined by the SNOMED-CT ontology. Results Evaluation on a real-world collection of medical records showed our concept-based approach outperformed a keyword baseline by 25% in Mean Average Precision. Conclusion The concept-based approach provides a framework for further development of inference based search systems for dealing with medical data.

A boundary preserving numerical algorithm for the Wright-Fisher model with mutation

The Wright-Fisher model is an Itô stochastic differential equation that was originally introduced to model genetic drift within finite populations and has recently been used as an approximation to ion channel dynamics within cardiac and neuronal cells. While analytic solutions to this equation remain within the interval [0,1], current numerical methods are unable to preserve such boundaries in the approximation. We present a new numerical method that guarantees approximations to a form of Wright-Fisher model, which includes mutation, remain within [0,1] for all time with probability one. Strong convergence of the method is proved and numerical experiments suggest that this new scheme converges with strong order 1/2. Extending this method to a multidimensional case, numerical tests suggest that the algorithm still converges strongly with order 1/2. Finally, numerical solutions obtained using this new method are compared to those obtained using the Euler-Maruyama method where the Wiener increment is resampled to ensure solutions remain within [0,1].

Clustering composite SaaS components in cloud computing using a grouping genetic algorithm

Recently, Software as a Service (SaaS) in Cloud computing, has become more and more significant among software users and providers. To offer a SaaS with flexible functions at a low cost, SaaS providers have focused on the decomposition of the SaaS functionalities, or known as composite SaaS. This approach has introduced new challenges in SaaS resource management in data centres. One of the challenges is managing the resources allocated to the composite SaaS. Due to the dynamic environment of a Cloud data centre, resources that have been initially allocated to SaaS components may be overloaded or wasted. As such, reconfiguration for the components’ placement is triggered to maintain the performance of the composite SaaS. However, existing approaches often ignore the communication or dependencies between SaaS components in their implementation. In a composite SaaS, it is important to include these elements, as they will directly affect the performance of the SaaS. This paper will propose a Grouping Genetic Algorithm (GGA) for multiple composite SaaS application component clustering in Cloud computing that will address this gap. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first attempt to handle multiple composite SaaS reconfiguration placement in a dynamic Cloud environment. The experimental results demonstrate the feasibility and the scalability of the GGA.

A parallel cooperative co-evolutionary genetic algorithm for the composite SaaS placement problem in Cloud computing

A composite SaaS (Software as a Service) is a software that is comprised of several software components and data components. The composite SaaS placement problem is to determine where each of the components should be deployed in a cloud computing environment such that the performance of the composite SaaS is optimal. From the computational point of view, the composite SaaS placement problem is a large-scale combinatorial optimization problem. Thus, an Iterative Cooperative Co-evolutionary Genetic Algorithm (ICCGA) was proposed. The ICCGA can find reasonable quality of solutions. However, its computation time is noticeably slow. Aiming at improving the computation time, we propose an unsynchronized Parallel Cooperative Co-evolutionary Genetic Algorithm (PCCGA) in this paper. Experimental results have shown that the PCCGA not only has quicker computation time, but also generates better quality of solutions than the ICCGA.

In search of a youth justice pedagogy? A commentary

Purpose – This paper seeks to look at youth justice (YJ) personnel training and education and the recommendations about it made in Time for a Fresh Start. Design/methodology/approach – The pedagogic tensions that currently shape YJ training are described – particularly those around the question of instructionalism vs education and what “specialist” means in the context of YJ. Findings – The paper suggests that the authors of Time for a Fresh Start missed the opportunity to better serve the public and young people's interests by neither acknowledging the pedagogic tensions nor articulating what a “specialist” “YJ” professional training can mean in twenty-first century England and Wales. Originality/value – The paper highlights an urgent need for an open debate between academics, practitioners and policy makers about YJ pedagogy.

Bayesian hierarchical models in statistical quality control methods to improve healthcare in hospitals

Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

Can you describe him for me? A technique for semantic person search in video

From a law enforcement standpoint, the ability to search for a person matching a semantic description (i.e. 1.8m tall, red shirt, jeans) is highly desirable. While a significant research effort has focused on person re-detection (the task of identifying a previously observed individual in surveillance video), these techniques require descriptors to be built from existing image or video observations. As such, person re-detection techniques are not suited to situations where footage of the person of interest is not readily available, such as a witness reporting a recent crime. In this paper, we present a novel framework that is able to search for a person based on a semantic description. The proposed approach uses size and colour cues, and does not require a person detection routine to locate people in the scene, improving utility in crowded conditions. The proposed approach is demonstrated with a new database that will be made available to the research community, and we show that the proposed technique is able to correctly localise a person in a video based on a simple semantic description.

Terra Preta : bioenergy, soil restoration, urban agriculture, art algorithm

The 2010 LAGI competition was held on three underutilized sites in the United Arab Emirates. By choosing Staten Island, New York in 2012 the competition organises have again brought into question new roles for public open space in the contemporary city. In the case of the UEA sites, the competition produced many entries which aimed to create a sculpture and by doing so, they attracted people to the selected empty spaces in an arid climate. In a way these proposals were the incubators and the new characters of these empty spaces. The competition was thus successful at advancing understandings of the expanded role of public open spaces in EAU and elsewhere. LAGI 2012 differs significantly to the UAE program because Fresh Kills Park has already been planned as a public open space for New Yorkers - with or without these clean energy sculptures. Furthermore, Fresh Kills Park is already an (gas) energy generating site in its own right. We believe Fresh Kills Park, as a site, presents a problem which somewhat transcends the aims of the competition brief. Advancing a sustainable urban design proposition for the site therefore requires a fundamental reconsideration of the established paradigms public open space. Hence our strategy is to not only create an energy generating, site specific art work, but to create synergy between the public and the site engagement while at the same time complement the idiosyncrasies of the pre-existing engineered landscape. Current PhD research about energy generation in public open spaces informs this work.

A penalty-based grouping genetic algorithm for multiple composite SaaS components clustering in Cloud

Software as a Service (SaaS) in Cloud is getting more and more significant among software users and providers recently. A SaaS that is delivered as composite application has many benefits including reduced delivery costs, flexible offers of the SaaS functions and decreased subscription cost for users. However, this approach has introduced a new problem in managing the resources allocated to the composite SaaS. The resource allocation that has been done at the initial stage may be overloaded or wasted due to the dynamic environment of a Cloud. A typical data center resource management usually triggers a placement reconfiguration for the SaaS in order to maintain its performance as well as to minimize the resource used. Existing approaches for this problem often ignore the underlying dependencies between SaaS components. In addition, the reconfiguration also has to comply with SaaS constraints in terms of its resource requirements, placement requirement as well as its SLA. To tackle the problem, this paper proposes a penalty-based Grouping Genetic Algorithm for multiple composite SaaS components clustering in Cloud. The main objective is to minimize the resource used by the SaaS by clustering its component without violating any constraint. Experimental results demonstrate the feasibility and the scalability of the proposed algorithm.