Some empirical evidence on offender time discount rates

The conventional wisdom is that offenders have very high discount rates not only with respect to income and fines but also with respect to time incarcerated. These rates are difficult to measure objectively and the usual approach is to ask subjects hypothetical questions and infer time preference from their answers. In this article, we propose estimating rates at which offenders discount time incarcerated by specifying their equilibrium plea, defined as the discount rate, which equates the time and expected time spent in jail following a guilty plea and a trial. Offenders are assumed to exhibit positive time preference and discount time spent in jail at a constant rate. Our choice of sample is interesting because the offenders are not on bail, punishment is not delayed and the offences are planned therefore conforming to Becker’s model of the decision to commit a crime. Contrary to the discussion in the literature, we do not find evidence of consistently high time discount rates, and therefore cannot unequivocally infer that the prison experience always results in low levels of specific deterrence.

Reduced withdrawal and failure rates of accelerated nursing students enrolled in pharmacology is associated with a supportive intervention

Background To reduce nursing shortages, accelerated nursing programs are available for domestic and international students. However, the withdrawal and failure rates from these programs may be different than for the traditional programs. The main aim of our study was to improve the retention and experience of accelerated nursing students. Methods The academic background, age, withdrawal and failure rates of the accelerated and traditional students were determined. Data from 2009 and 2010 were collected prior to intervention. In an attempt to reduce the withdrawal of accelerated students, we set up an intervention, which was available to all students. The assessment of the intervention was a pre-post-test design with non-equivalent groups (the traditional and the accelerated students). The elements of the intervention were a) a formative website activity of some basic concepts in anatomy, physiology and pharmacology, b) a workshop addressing study skills and online resources, and c) resource lectures in anatomy/physiology and microbiology. The formative website and workshop was evaluated using questionnaires. Results The accelerated nursing students were five years older than the traditional students (p < 0.0001). The withdrawal rates from a pharmacology course are higher for accelerated nursing students, than for traditional students who have undertaken first year courses in anatomy and physiology (p = 0.04 in 2010). The withdrawing students were predominantly the domestic students with non-university qualifications or equivalent experience. The failure rates were also higher for this group, compared to the traditional students (p = 0.05 in 2009 and 0.03 in 2010). In contrast, the withdrawal rates for the international and domestic graduate accelerated students were very low. After the intervention, the withdrawal and failure rates in pharmacology for domestic accelerated students with non-university qualifications were not significantly different than those of traditional students. Conclusions The accelerated international and domestic graduate nursing students have low withdrawal rates and high success rates in a pharmacology course. However, domestic students with non-university qualifications have higher withdrawal and failure rates than other nursing students and may be underprepared for university study in pharmacology in nursing programs. The introduction of an intervention was associated with reduced withdrawal and failure rates for these students in the pharmacology course.

Investigating variation in bus ridership rates within localised areas of a sub-tropical city

This thesis makes a significant contribution to knowledge and understanding of 'Human Travel Behaviour' in relation to transportation research. It holds some important merits that have not been proposed before. It develops a new, comprehensive and meaningful relationship that includes bus transit ridership change due to weather variables, seasonality and transit quality of service within a single daily ridership rate estimation model. The research incorporated both temporal and spatial influences on ridership within a modelling structure, named as the Nested Model Structure. It provides a complete picture of ridership variation across the sub-tropical city of Brisbane, Australia.

Short and long term mortality rates after a lower limb amputation

Objective To determine mortality rates after a first lower limb amputation and explore the rates for different subpopulations. Methods Retrospective cohort study of all people who underwent a first amputation at or proximal to transtibial level, in an area of 1.7 million people. Analysis with Kaplan-Meier curves and Log Rank tests for univariate associations of psycho-social and health variables. Logistic regression for odds of death at 30-days, 1-year and 5-years. Results 299 people were included. Median time to death was 20.3 months (95%CI: 13.1; 27.5). 30-day mortality = 22%; odds of death 2.3 times higher in people with history of cerebrovascular disease (95%CI: 1.2; 4.7, P = 0.016). 1 year mortality = 44%; odds of death 3.5 times higher for people with renal disease (95%CI: 1.8; 7.0, P < 0.001). 5-years mortality = 77%; odds of death 5.4 times higher for people with renal disease (95%CI: 1.8; 16.0,P = 0.003). Variation in mortality rates was most apparent in different age groups; people 75–84 years having better short term outcomes than those younger and older. Conclusions Mortality rates demonstrated the frailty of this population, with almost one quarter of people dying within 30-days, and almost half at 1 year. People with cerebrovascular had higher odds of death at 30 days, and those with renal disease and 1 and 5 years, respectively.

Human error risk management methodology for rail crack incidents

The paper presents an innovative approach to modelling the causal relationships of human errors in rail crack incidents (RCI) from a managerial perspective. A Bayesian belief network is developed to model RCI by considering the human errors of designers, manufactures, operators and maintainers (DMOM) and the causal relationships involved. A set of dependent variables whose combinations express the relevant functions performed by each DMOM participant is used to model the causal relationships. A total of 14 RCI on Hong Kong’s mass transit railway (MTR) from 2008 to 2011 are used to illustrate the application of the model. Bayesian inference is used to conduct an importance analysis to assess the impact of the participants’ errors. Sensitivity analysis is then employed to gauge the effect the increased probability of occurrence of human errors on RCI. Finally, strategies for human error identification and mitigation of RCI are proposed. The identification of ability of maintainer in the case study as the most important factor influencing the probability of RCI implies the priority need to strengthen the maintenance management of the MTR system and that improving the inspection ability of the maintainer is likely to be an effective strategy for RCI risk mitigation.

Annual nitrogen dynamics and urea fertilizer recoveries from a dairy pasture using 15N; effect of nitrification inhibitor DMPP and reduced application rates

Direct nitrogen (N) losses from pastures contribute to the poor nitrogen use efficiency of the dairy industry, though the exact fate of applied N and the processes involved are largely unknown. Nitrification inhibitors such as DMPP can potentially increase fertilizer N use efficiency (NUE), though few studies globally have examined the effectiveness of DMPP coated urea in pastures. This study quantified the NUE of DMPP combined with reduced application rates, and the effect on N dynamics and plant–soil interactions over an annual ryegrass/kikuyu rotation in Queensland, Australia. Labeled 15N urea and DMPP was applied over 7 winter applications at standard farmer (45 kg N ha−1) and half (23 kg N ha−1) rates. Fertilizer recoveries and NUE were calculated over 13 harvests, and the contribution of fertilizer and soil N estimated. Up to 85% of the annual N harvested was from soil organic matter. DMPP at the lower rate increased annual yields by 31% compared to the equivalent urea treatment with no difference to the high N rates. Almost 40% of the N added at the conventional fertilizer application rate as urea was lost to the environment; 80 kg N ha−1 higher than the low DMPP. Combining the nitrification inhibitor DMPP with reduced fertilizer application rates shows substantial potential to reduce N losses to the environment while sustaining productivity in subtropical dairy pastures.

Attrition and success rates of accelerated students in nursing courses: A systematic review

Background There is a comprehensive literature on the academic outcomes (attrition and success) of students in traditional/baccalaureate nursing programs, but much less is known about the academic outcomes of students in accelerated nursing programs. The aim of this systematic review is to report on the attrition and success rates (either internal examination or NCLEX-RN) of accelerated students, compared to traditional students. Methods For the systematic review, the databases (Pubmed, Cinahl and PsychINFO) and Google Scholar were searched using the search terms ‘accelerated’ or ‘accreditation for prior learning’, ‘fast-track’ or ‘top up’ and ‘nursing’ with ‘attrition’ or ‘retention’ or ‘withdrawal’ or ‘success’ from 1994 to January 2016. All relevant articles were included, regardless of quality. Results The findings of 19 studies of attrition rates and/or success rates for accelerated students are reported. For international accelerated students, there were only three studies, which are heterogeneous, and have major limitations. One of three studies has lower attrition rates, and one has shown higher success rates, than traditional students. In contrast, another study has shown high attrition and low success for international accelerated students. For graduate accelerated students, most of the studies are high quality, and showed that they have rates similar or better than traditional students. Thus, five of six studies have shown similar or lower attrition rates. Four of these studies with graduate accelerated students and an additional seven studies of success rates only, have shown similar or better success rates, than traditional students. There are only three studies of non-university graduate accelerated students, and these had weaknesses, but were consistent in reporting higher attrition rates than traditional students. Conclusions The paucity and weakness of information available makes it unclear as to the attrition and/or success of international accelerated students in nursing programs. The good information available suggests that accelerated programs may be working reasonably well for the graduate students. However, the limited information available for non-university graduate students is weak, but consistent, in suggesting they may struggle in accelerated courses. Further studies are needed to determine the attrition and success rates of accelerated students, particularly for international and non-university graduate students.

Avian diversification patterns across the K-Pg boundary: Influence of calibrations, datasets, and model misspecification

Birds represent the most diverse extant tetrapod clade, with ca. 10,000 extant species, and the timing of the crown avian radiation remains hotly debated. The fossil record supports a primarily Cenozoic radiation of crown birds, whereas molecular divergence dating analyses generally imply that this radiation was well underway during the Cretaceous. Furthermore, substantial differences have been noted between published divergence estimates. These have been variously attributed to clock model, calibration regime, and gene type. One underappreciated phenomenon is that disparity between fossil ages and molecular dates tends to be proportionally greater for shallower nodes in the avian Tree of Life. Here, we explore potential drivers of disparity in avian divergence dates through a set of analyses applying various calibration strategies and coding methods to a mitochondrial genome dataset and an 18-gene nuclear dataset, both sampled across 72 taxa. Our analyses support the occurrence of two deep divergences (i.e., the Palaeognathae/Neognathae split and the Galloanserae/Neoaves split) well within the Cretaceous, followed by a rapid radiation of Neoaves near the K-Pg boundary. However, 95% highest posterior density intervals for most basal divergences in Neoaves cross the boundary, and we emphasize that, barring unreasonably strict prior distributions, distinguishing between a rapid Early Paleocene radiation and a Late Cretaceous radiation may be beyond the resolving power of currently favored divergence dating methods. In contrast to recent observations for placental mammals, constraining all divergences within Neoaves to occur in the Cenozoic does not result in unreasonably high inferred substitution rates. Comparisons of nuclear DNA (nDNA) versus mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) datasets and NT- versus RY-coded mitochondrial data reveal patterns of disparity that are consistent with substitution model misspecifications that result in tree compression/tree extension artifacts, which may explain some discordance between previous divergence estimates based on different sequence types. Comparisons of fully calibrated and nominally calibrated trees support a correlation between body mass and apparent dating error. Overall, our results are consistent with (but do not require) a Paleogene radiation for most major clades of crown birds.

Predicting crashes using traffic offences. A meta-analysis that examines potential bias between self-report and archival data

Background Traffic offences have been considered an important predictor of crash involvement, and have often been used as a proxy safety variable for crashes. However the association between crashes and offences has never been meta-analysed and the population effect size never established. Research is yet to determine the extent to which this relationship may be spuriously inflated through systematic measurement error, with obvious implications for researchers endeavouring to accurately identify salient factors predictive of crashes. Methodology and Principal Findings Studies yielding a correlation between crashes and traffic offences were collated and a meta-analysis of 144 effects drawn from 99 road safety studies conducted. Potential impact of factors such as age, time period, crash and offence rates, crash severity and data type, sourced from either self-report surveys or archival records, were considered and discussed. After weighting for sample size, an average correlation of r = .18 was observed over the mean time period of 3.2 years. Evidence emerged suggesting the strength of this correlation is decreasing over time. Stronger correlations between crashes and offences were generally found in studies involving younger drivers. Consistent with common method variance effects, a within country analysis found stronger effect sizes in self-reported data even controlling for crash mean. Significance The effectiveness of traffic offences as a proxy for crashes may be limited. Inclusion of elements such as independently validated crash and offence histories or accurate measures of exposure to the road would facilitate a better understanding of the factors that influence crash involvement.