Bayesian algorithms with applications

Advances in algorithms for approximate sampling from a multivariable target function have led to solutions to challenging statistical inference problems that would otherwise not be considered by the applied scientist. Such sampling algorithms are particularly relevant to Bayesian statistics, since the target function is the posterior distribution of the unobservables given the observables. In this thesis we develop, adapt and apply Bayesian algorithms, whilst addressing substantive applied problems in biology and medicine as well as other applications. For an increasing number of high-impact research problems, the primary models of interest are often sufficiently complex that the likelihood function is computationally intractable. Rather than discard these models in favour of inferior alternatives, a class of Bayesian "likelihoodfree" techniques (often termed approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)) has emerged in the last few years, which avoids direct likelihood computation through repeated sampling of data from the model and comparing observed and simulated summary statistics. In Part I of this thesis we utilise sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methodology to develop new algorithms for ABC that are more efficient in terms of the number of model simulations required and are almost black-box since very little algorithmic tuning is required. In addition, we address the issue of deriving appropriate summary statistics to use within ABC via a goodness-of-fit statistic and indirect inference. Another important problem in statistics is the design of experiments. That is, how one should select the values of the controllable variables in order to achieve some design goal. The presences of parameter and/or model uncertainty are computational obstacles when designing experiments but can lead to inefficient designs if not accounted for correctly. The Bayesian framework accommodates such uncertainties in a coherent way. If the amount of uncertainty is substantial, it can be of interest to perform adaptive designs in order to accrue information to make better decisions about future design points. This is of particular interest if the data can be collected sequentially. In a sense, the current posterior distribution becomes the new prior distribution for the next design decision. Part II of this thesis creates new algorithms for Bayesian sequential design to accommodate parameter and model uncertainty using SMC. The algorithms are substantially faster than previous approaches allowing the simulation properties of various design utilities to be investigated in a more timely manner. Furthermore the approach offers convenient estimation of Bayesian utilities and other quantities that are particularly relevant in the presence of model uncertainty. Finally, Part III of this thesis tackles a substantive medical problem. A neurological disorder known as motor neuron disease (MND) progressively causes motor neurons to no longer have the ability to innervate the muscle fibres, causing the muscles to eventually waste away. When this occurs the motor unit effectively ‘dies’. There is no cure for MND, and fatality often results from a lack of muscle strength to breathe. The prognosis for many forms of MND (particularly amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS)) is particularly poor, with patients usually only surviving a small number of years after the initial onset of disease. Measuring the progress of diseases of the motor units, such as ALS, is a challenge for clinical neurologists. Motor unit number estimation (MUNE) is an attempt to directly assess underlying motor unit loss rather than indirect techniques such as muscle strength assessment, which generally is unable to detect progressions due to the body’s natural attempts at compensation. Part III of this thesis builds upon a previous Bayesian technique, which develops a sophisticated statistical model that takes into account physiological information about motor unit activation and various sources of uncertainties. More specifically, we develop a more reliable MUNE method by applying marginalisation over latent variables in order to improve the performance of a previously developed reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. We make other subtle changes to the model and algorithm to improve the robustness of the approach.

Magnetic flux analysis in superconducting Fault Current Limiters under short-circuit conditions

In order to obtain a more compact Superconducting Fault Current limiter (SFCL), a special geometry of core and AC coil is required. This results in a unique magnetic flux pattern which differs from those associated with conventional round core arrangements. In this paper the magnetic flux density within a Fault Current Limiter (FCL) is described. Both experimental and analytical approaches are considered. A small scale prototype of an FCL was constructed in order to conduct the experiments. This prototype comprises a single phase. The analysis covers both the steady state and the short-circuit condition. Simulation results were obtained using commercial software based on the Finite Element Method (FEM). The magnetic flux saturating the cores, leakage magnetic flux giving rise to electromagnetic forces and leakage magnetic flux flowing in the enclosing tank are computed.

Automated risk mitigation in business processes

This paper proposes a concrete approach for the automatic mitigation of risks that are detected during process enactment. Given a process model exposed to risks, e.g. a financial process exposed to the risk of approval fraud, we enact this process and as soon as the likelihood of the associated risk(s) is no longer tolerable, we generate a set of possible mitigation actions to reduce the risks' likelihood, ideally annulling the risks altogether. A mitigation action is a sequence of controlled changes applied to the running process instance, taking into account a snapshot of the process resources and data, and the current status of the system in which the process is executed. These actions are proposed as recommendations to help process administrators mitigate process-related risks as soon as they arise. The approach has been implemented in the YAWL environment and its performance evaluated. The results show that it is possible to mitigate process-related risks within a few minutes.

Calling for help : a responsive evaluation of Child Health Line

The project examined the responsiveness of the telenursing service provided by the Child Health Line (hereinafter referred to as CHL). It aimed to provide an account of population usage of the service, the call request types and the response of the service to the calls. In so doing, the project extends the current body of knowledge pertaining to the provision of parenting support through telenursing. Approximately 900 calls to the CHL were audio-recorded over the December 2005-2006 Christmas-New Year period. A protocol was developed to code characteristics of the call, the interactional features between the caller and nurse call-taker, and the extent to which there was (a) agreement on problem definition and the plan of action and (b) interactional alignment between nurse and caller. A quantitative analysis examined the frequencies of the main topics covered in calls to the CHL and any statistical associations between types of calls, length of calls and nurse-caller alignment. In addition, a detailed qualitative analysis was conducted on a subset of calls dealing with the nurse management of calls seeking medical advice and information. Key findings include: • Overall, 74% of the calls discussed parenting and child development issues, 48% discussed health/medical issues, and 16% were information-seeking calls. • More specifically: o 21% discussed health/medical and parenting and child development issues. o 3% discussed parenting and information-seeking issues. o 5% discussed health/medical, parenting/development and information issues. o 18% exclusively focussed on health and medical issues and therefore were outside the remit of the intended scope of the CHL. These calls caused interactional dilemmas for the nurse call-takers as they simultaneously dealt with parental expectations for help and the CHL guidelines indicating that offering medical advice was outside the remit of the service. • Most frequent reasons for calling were to discuss sleep, feeding, normative infant physical functions and parenting advice. • The average length of calls to the CHL was 7 minutes. • Longer calls were more likely to involve nurse call-takers giving advice on more than one topic, the caller displaying strong emotions, the caller not specifically providing the reason for the call, and the caller discussing parenting and developmental issues. • Shorter calls were characterised by the nurse suggesting that the child receive immediate medical attention, the nurse emphasising the importance or urgency of the plan of action, the caller referring to or requesting confirmation of a diagnosis, and caller and nurse call-taker discussion of health and medical issues. • The majority of calls, 92%, achieved parent-nurse alignment by the conclusion of the call. However, 8% did not. • The 8% of calls that were not aligned require further quantitative and qualitative investigation of the interactional features. The findings are pertinent in the current context where Child Health Line now resides within 13HEALTH. These findings indicate: 1. A high demand for parenting advice. 2. Nurse call-takers have a high level of competency in dealing with calls about parenting and normal child development, which is the remit of the CHL. 3. Nurse call-takers and callers achieve a high degree of alignment when both parties agree on a course of action. 4. There is scope for developing professional practice in calls that present difficulties in terms of call content, interactional behaviour and call closure. Recommendations of the project: 1. There are numerous opportunities for further research on interactional aspects of calls to the CHL, such as further investigations of the interactional features and the association of the features to alignment and nonalignment. The rich and detailed insights into the patterns of nurse-parent interactions were afforded by the audio-recording and analysis of calls to the CHL. 2. The regular recording of calls would serve as a way of increasing understanding of the type and nature of calls received, and provide a valuable training resource. Recording and analysing calls to CHL provides insight into the operation of the service, including evidence about the effectiveness of triaging calls. 3. Training in both recognising and dealing with problem calls may be beneficial. For example, calls where the caller showed strong emotion, appeared stressed, frustrated or troubled were less likely to be rated as aligned calls. In calls where the callers described being ‘at their wits end’, or responded to each proposed suggestion with ‘I’ve tried that’, the callers were fairly resistant to advice-giving. 4. Training could focus on strategies for managing calls relating to parenting support and advice, and parental well-being. The project found that these calls were more likely to be rated as being nonaligned. 5. With the implementation of 13HEALTH, future research could compare nurse-parent interaction following the implementation of triaging. Of the calls, 21% had both medical and parenting topics discussed and 5.3% discussed medical, parenting and information topics. Added to this, in 12% of calls, there was ambiguity between the caller and nurse call-taker as to whether the problem was medical or behavioural.

A high frequency current source converter with adjustable magnitude to drive high power piezoelectric transducers

A general electrical model of a piezoelectric transducer for ultrasound applications consists of a capacitor in parallel with RLC legs. A high power voltage source converter can however generate significant voltage stress across the transducer that creates high leakage currents. One solution is to reduce the voltage stress across the piezoelectric transducer by using an LC filter, however a main drawback is changing the piezoelectric resonant frequency and its characteristics. Thereby it reduces the efficiency of energy conversion through the transducer. This paper proposes that a high frequency current source converter is a suitable topology to drive high power piezoelectric transducers efficiently.

Saturated core high-temperature superconducting fault current limiters as an alternative to conventional series reactors in a distribution grid

Series reactors are used in distribution grids to reduce the short-circuit fault level. Some of the disadvantages of the application of these devices are the voltage drop produced across the reactor and the steep front rise of the transient recovery voltage (TRV), which generally exceeds the rating of the associated circuit breaker. Simulations were performed to compare the characteristics of a saturated core High-Temperature Superconducting Fault Current Limiter (HTS FCL) and a series reactor. The design of the HTS FCL was optimized using the evolutionary algorithm. The resulting Pareto frontier curve of optimum solution is presented in this paper. The results show that the steady-state impedance of an HTS FCL is significantly lower than that of a series reactor for the same level of fault current limiting. Tests performed on a prototype 11 kV HTS FCL confirm the theoretical results. The respective transient recovery voltages (TRV) of the HTS FCL and an air core reactor of comparable fault current limiting capability are also determined. The results show that the saturated core HTS FCL has a significantly lower effect on the rate of rise of the circuit breaker TRV as compared to the air core reactor. The simulations results are validated with shortcircuit test results.

Eyes on 3D-Current 3D biomimetic disease concept models and potential applications in age-related macular degeneration

Three dimensional cellular models that mimic disease are being increasingly investigated and have opened an exciting new research area into understanding pathomechanisms. The advantage of 3D in vitro disease models is that they allow systematic and in-depth studies of physiological and pathophysiological processes with less costs and ethical concerns that have arisen with animal models. The purpose of the 3D approach is to allow crosstalk between cells and microenvironment, and with cues from the microenvironment, cells can assemble their niche similar to in vivo conditions. The use of 3D models for mimicking disease processes such as cancer, osteoarthritis etc., is only emerging and allows multidisciplinary teams consisting of tissue engineers, biologist biomaterial scientists and clinicians to work closely together. While in vitro systems require rigorous testing before they can be considered as replicates of the in vivo model, major steps have been made, suggesting that they will become powerful tools for studying physiological and pathophysiological processes. This paper aims to summarize some of the existing 3D models and proposes a novel 3D model of the eye structures that are involved in the most common cause of blindness in the Western World, namely age-related macular degeneration (AMD).

Commercial vehicle pre-clearance programs : current issues and recommendations for potential implementation

The regulation of overweight trucks is of increasing importance. Quickly growing heavy vehicle volumes over-proportionally contribute to roadway damage. Raising maintenance costs and compromised road safety are also becoming a major concern to managing agencies. Minimizing pavement wear is done by regulating overloaded trucks on major highways at weigh stations. However, due to lengthy inspections and insufficient capacities, weigh stations tend to be inefficient. New practices, using Radio Frequency Identification (RFID) transponders and weigh-in-motion technologies, called preclearance programs, have been set up in a number of countries. The primary aim of this study is to investigate the current issues with regard to the implementation and operation of the preclearance program. The State of Queensland, Australia, is used as a case study. The investigation focuses on three aspects; the first emphasizes on identifying the need for improvement of the current regulation programs in Queensland. Second, the operators of existing preclearance programs are interviewed for their lessons-learned and the marketing strategies used for promoting their programs. The trucking companies in Queensland are interviewed for their experiences with the current weighing practices and attitudes toward the potential preclearance system. Finally, the estimated benefit of the preclearance program deployment in Queensland is analyzed. The penultimate part brings the former four parts together and provides the study findings and recommendations. The framework and study findings could be valuable inputs for other roadway agencies considering a similar preclearance program or looking to promote their existing ones.

Consumer product-related injuries in Queensland children : A snapshot of current problem areas for potential action

This report presents a snapshot from work which was funded by the Queensland Injury Prevention Council in 2010-11 titled “Feasibility of Using Health Data Sources to Inform Product Safety Surveillance in Queensland children”. The project provided an evaluation of the current available evidence-base for identification and surveillance of product-related injuries in children in Queensland and Australia. A comprehensive 300 page report was produced (available at: http://eprints.qut.edu.au/46518/) and a series of recommendations were made which proposed: improvements in the product safety data system, increased utilisation of health data for proactive and reactive surveillance, enhanced collaboration between the health sector and the product safety sector, and improved ability of health data to meet the needs of product safety surveillance. At the conclusion of the project, a Consumer Product Injury Research Advisory group (CPIRAG) was established as a working party to the Queensland Injury Prevention Council (QIPC), to prioritise and advance these recommendations and to work collaboratively with key stakeholders to promote the role of injury data to support product safety policy decisions at the Queensland and national level. This group continues to meet monthly and is comprised of the organisations represented on the second page of this report. One of the key priorities of the CPIRAG group for 2012 was to produce a snapshot report to highlight problem areas for potential action arising out of the larger report. Subsequent funding to write this snapshot report was provided by the Institute for Health and Biomedical Innovation, Injury Prevention and Rehabilitation Domain at QUT in 2012. This work was undertaken by Dr Kirsten McKenzie and researchers from QUT's Centre for Accident Research and Road Safety - Queensland. This snapshot report provides an evidence base for potential further action on a range of children’s products that are significantly represented in injury data. Further information regarding injury hazards, safety advice and regulatory responses are available on the Office of Fair Trading (OFT) Queensland website and the Product Safety Australia websites. Links to these resources are provided for each product reviewed.

Archival analysis of enterprise resource planning systems : the current state and future directions

Research on Enterprise Resource Planning (ERP) Systems is becoming a well-established research theme in Information Systems (IS) research. Enterprise Resource Planning Systems, given its unique differentiations with other IS applications, have provided an interesting backdrop to test and re-test some of the key and fundamental concepts in IS. While some researchers have tested well-established concepts of technology acceptance, system usage and system success in the context of ERP Systems, others have researched how new paradigms like cloud computing and social media integrate with ERP Systems. Moreover, ERP Systems provided the context for cross disciplinary research such as knowledge management, project management and business process management research. Almost after two-decades since its inception in IS research, this paper provides a critique of 198 papers published on ERP Systems since 2006-2012. We observe patterns on ES research, provide comparisons to past studies and provide future research directions.

Public service versus private interest : a comparative analysis of the Australian and British debates

This paper will compare and evaluate the effectiveness of commercial media lobbying and advocacy against public service media in two countries, the United Kingdom and Australia. The paper will focus empirically on the commercial media coverage of public service media issues in these countries (relating to the BBC and ABC respectively) over the period since the election of the Conservative-led Coalition in Britain in June 2010, and the election of the Gillard government in Australia in August 2010. Reference will be made to preceding periods as relevant to an understanding of the current environment. In both countries the main commercial media rival to public service media is News Corp and its associated organisations – News Ltd and Sky News in Australia, and News International and BSkyB in the UK. The paper will examine with analysis of print and online news and commentary content how News Corp outlets have reported and commented on the activities and plans of public service media as the latter have developed and extended their presence on digital TV and online platforms. It will also consider the responses of the ABC and BBC to these interventions. It will consider, thirdly, the responses of Australian and British governments to these debates, and the policy outcomes. This section of the paper will seek to evaluate the trajectory of the policy-public-private dynamic in recent years, and to draw conclusions as to the future direction of policy. Particular attention will be devoted to recent key moments in this unfolding dialogue. In Britain, debates around the efforts of News Corp to take over 100% of BSkyB, both before and after the breaking of the phone-hacking scandal in July 2011; in Australia, the debate around the National Broadband Network and the competitive tender process for ABC World, that country’s public service transnational broadcaster; and other key moments where rivalry between News Corp companies and public service media became mainstream news stories provoking wider public debate. The paper will conclude with recommendations as to how public service media organisations might engage constructively with commercial organisations in the future, including News Corp, and taking into account emerging technological and financial challenges to traditional rationales for public service provision.

Synthetic rating system for railway bridge management

Railway bridges deteriorate with age. Factors such as environmental effects on different materials of a bridge, variation of loads, fatigue, etc will reduce the remaining life of bridges. Bridges are currently rated individually for maintenance and repair actions according to the structural conditions of their elements. Dealing with thousands of bridges and several factors that cause deterioration, makes the rating process extremely complicated. Current simplified but practical rating methods are not based on an accurate structural condition assessment system. On the other hand, the sophisticated but more accurate methods are only used for a single bridge or particular types of bridges. It is therefore necessary to develop a practical and accurate system which will be capable of rating a network of railway bridges. This paper introduces a new method for rating a network of bridges based on their current and future structural conditions. The method identifies typical bridges representing a group of railway bridges. The most crucial agents will be determined and categorized to criticality and vulnerability factors. Classification based on structural configuration, loading, and critical deterioration factors will be conducted. Finally a rating method for a network of railway bridges that takes into account the effects of damaged structural components due to variations in loading and environmental conditions on the integrity of the whole structure will be proposed. The outcome of this research is expected to significantly improve the rating methods for railway bridges by considering the unique characteristics of different factors and incorporating the correlation between them.

Making more sustainable urban environments by responding to neurodiversity in later life

The ageing population is increasing worldwide, as are a range of chronic diseases, conditions, and physical and cognitive disabilities associated with later life. The older population is also neurologically diverse, with unique and specific challenges around mobility and engagement with the urban environment. Older people tend to interact less with cities and neighbourhoods, putting them at risk of further illnesses and co-morbidities associated with being less physically and socially active. Empirical evidence has shown that reduced access to healthcare services, health-related resources and social interaction opportunities is associated with increases in morbidity and premature mortality. While it is crucial to respond to the needs of this ageing population, there is insufficient evidence for interventions regarding their experiences of public space from the vantage point of neurodiversity. This paper provides a conceptual and methodological framework to investigate relationships between the sensory and cognitive abilities of older people, and their use and negotiation of the urban environment. The paper will refer to a case example of the city of Logan, an urban area in Queensland, Australia, where current urban development provides opportunities for the design of spaces that take experiences of neurodiversity into account. The framework will inform the development of principles for urban design for increasingly neurologically diverse populations.

Synthetic rating system for railway bridge management

Railway bridges deteriorate with age. Factors such as environmental effects on different materials of a bridge, variation of loads, fatigue, etc. will reduce the remaining life of bridges. Dealing with thousands of bridges and several factors that cause deterioration, makes the rating process extremely complicated. Current simplified but practical methods of rating a network of bridges are not based on an accurate structural condition assessment system. On the other hand, the sophisticated but more accurate methods are only used for a single bridge or particular types of bridges. It is therefore necessary to develop a practical and accurate system, which will be capable of rating a network of railway bridges. This article introduces a new method to rate a network of bridges based on their current and future structural conditions. The method identifies typical bridges representing a group of railway bridges. The most crucial agents will be determined and categorized to criticality and vulnerability factors. Classification based on structural configuration, loading, and critical deterioration factors will be conducted. Finally a rating method for a network of railway bridges that takes into account the effects of damaged structural components due to variations in loading and environmental conditions on the integrity of the whole structure will be proposed. The outcome of this article is expected to significantly improve the rating methods for railway bridges by considering the unique characteristics of different factors and incorporating the correlation among them.