New variational Bayesian approaches for statistical data mining : with applications to profiling and differentiating habitual consumption behaviour of customers in the wireless telecommunication industry

This thesis investigates profiling and differentiating customers through the use of statistical data mining techniques. The business application of our work centres on examining individuals’ seldomly studied yet critical consumption behaviour over an extensive time period within the context of the wireless telecommunication industry; consumption behaviour (as oppose to purchasing behaviour) is behaviour that has been performed so frequently that it become habitual and involves minimal intentions or decision making. Key variables investigated are the activity initialised timestamp and cell tower location as well as the activity type and usage quantity (e.g., voice call with duration in seconds); and the research focuses are on customers’ spatial and temporal usage behaviour. The main methodological emphasis is on the development of clustering models based on Gaussian mixture models (GMMs) which are fitted with the use of the recently developed variational Bayesian (VB) method. VB is an efficient deterministic alternative to the popular but computationally demandingMarkov chainMonte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The standard VBGMMalgorithm is extended by allowing component splitting such that it is robust to initial parameter choices and can automatically and efficiently determine the number of components. The new algorithm we propose allows more effective modelling of individuals’ highly heterogeneous and spiky spatial usage behaviour, or more generally human mobility patterns; the term spiky describes data patterns with large areas of low probability mixed with small areas of high probability. Customers are then characterised and segmented based on the fitted GMM which corresponds to how each of them uses the products/services spatially in their daily lives; this is essentially their likely lifestyle and occupational traits. Other significant research contributions include fitting GMMs using VB to circular data i.e., the temporal usage behaviour, and developing clustering algorithms suitable for high dimensional data based on the use of VB-GMM.

Effective attacking strategies in rugby union

Evasive change-of-direction manoeuvres (agility skills) are a fundamental ability in rugby union. In this study, we explored the attributes of agility skill execution as they relate to effective attacking strategies in rugby union. Seven Super 14 games were coded using variables that assessed team patterns and individual movement characteristics during attacking ball carries. The results indicated that tackle-breaks are a key determinant of try-scoring ability and team success in rugby union. The ability of the attacking ball carrier to receive the ball at high speed with at least two body lengths from the defence line against an isolated defender promoted tackle-breaks. Furthermore, the execution of a side-step evasive manoeuvre at a change of direction angle of 20–60° and a distance of one to two body lengths from the defence, and then straightening the running line following the initial direction change at an angle of 20–60°, was associated with tackle-breaks. This study provides critical insight regarding the attributes of agility skill execution that are associated with effective ball carries in rugby union.

Coupling hybrid-game strategies with particle swarm optimisation for multi-objective high lift systems design optimisation

This paper investigates the High Lift System (HLS) application of complex aerodynamic design problem using Particle Swarm Optimisation (PSO) coupled to Game strategies. Two types of optimization methods are used; the first method is a standard PSO based on Pareto dominance and the second method hybridises PSO with a well-known Nash Game strategies named Hybrid-PSO. These optimization techniques are coupled to a pre/post processor GiD providing unstructured meshes during the optimisation procedure and a transonic analysis software PUMI. The computational efficiency and quality design obtained by PSO and Hybrid-PSO are compared. The numerical results for the multi-objective HLS design optimisation clearly shows the benefits of hybridising a PSO with the Nash game and makes promising the above methodology for solving other more complex multi-physics optimisation problems in Aeronautics.

Screening, isolation, and decolonisation strategies in the control of meticillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus in intensive care units : cost effectiveness evaluation

Objective: To assess the cost-effectiveness of screening, isolation and decolonisation strategies in the control of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in intensive care units (ICUs). Design: Economic evaluation. Setting: England and Wales. Population: ICU patients. Main outcome measures: Infections, deaths, costs, quality adjusted life years (QALYs), incremental cost-effectiveness ratios for alternative strategies, net monetary benefits (NMBs). Results: All strategies using isolation but not decolonisation improved health outcomes but increased costs. When MRSA prevalence on admission to the ICU was 5% and the willingness to pay per QALY gained was between £20,000 and £30,000, the best such strategy was to isolate only those patients at high risk of carrying MRSA (either pre-emptively or following identification by admission and weekly MRSA screening using chromogenic agar). Universal admission and weekly screening using polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based MRSA detection coupled with isolation was unlikely to be cost-effective unless prevalence was high (10% colonised with MRSA on admission to the ICU). All decolonisation strategies improved health outcomes and reduced costs. While universal decolonisation (regardless of MRSA status) was the most cost-effective in the short-term, strategies using screening to target MRSA carriers may be preferred due to reduced risk of selecting for resistance. Amongst such targeted strategies, universal admission and weekly PCR screening coupled with decolonisation with nasal mupirocin was the most cost-effective. This finding was robust to ICU size, MRSA admission prevalence, the proportion of patients classified as high-risk, and the precise value of willingness to pay for health benefits. Conclusions: MRSA control strategies that use decolonisation are likely to be cost-saving in an ICU setting provided resistance is lacking, and combining universal PCR-based screening with decolonisation is likely to represent good value for money if untargeted decolonisation is considered unacceptable. In ICUs where decolonisation is not implemented there is insufficient evidence to support universal MRSA screening outside high prevalence settings.

Children’s strategies for making friends when starting school

Starting school is a critical and potentially stressful time for many young children, and having supportive relationships with parents, teachers and peers and friends offer better outcomes for school adjustment and social relationships. This paper explores matters of friendship when young children are starting school, and how they initiate friendships. In audio-recorded conversations with a researcher and their peers, the children proposed a number of strategies, including making requests, initiating clubs and teams, and peer intervention to support a friend. Their accounts drew on social knowledge and relational understandings, and showed that having someone, a friend, to play with was important for starting school. Children gave serious attention to developing strategies to initiate friendships.

What the hare can teach the tortoise about make-buy strategies for radical innovations

Purpose of this paper – The purpose of this investigation is to help establish: whether or not strong relationships between suppliers and customers improve performance; and if prescriptive frameworks on outsourcing radical innovations are dependent on industry clockspeed. Design/methodology/approach – A survey of UK-based manufacturers, followed by a statistical analysis. Findings – Long-term supplier links seem not to play a role in the development of radical innovations. Moreover, industry clockspeed has no significant bearing on the success or failure of any outsourcing strategy for radically new technologies. Research limitations/implications – Literature about outsourcing in the face of radical innovation can be more confidently applied to industries of all clockspeeds. Practical implications – Prescriptions for fast clockspeed industries should be applied more broadly: all industries should maintain a high degree of vertical integration in the early days of a radical innovation. Originality/value – Prior papers had explored whether or not a company should outsource radical innovations, but none had determined if this is equally true for slow industries and fast ones. Therein lies the original contribution of this paper.

Outsourcing strategies for radical innovations: does industry clockspeed make a difference?

Purpose – To determine whether or not clockspeed is an important variable in outsourcing strategies throughout the development of radical innovations. Design/methodology/approach – An internet-based survey of manufacturing firms from all over the world. Findings – An industry's clockspeed does not play a significant role in the success or failure of a particular outsourcing strategy for a radical innovation. Research limitations/implications – Conclusions from earlier research in this area are not necessarily industry-specific. Practical implications – Lessons learned via previous investigations about the computer industry need not be confined to that sector. Vertical integration may be a more robust outsourcing strategy when developing a radical innovation in industries of all clockspeeds. Originality/value – Previous research efforts in this field focused on a single technology jump, but this approach may have overlooked a potentially important variable: industry clockspeed. Thus, this investigation explores whether clockspeed is an important factor.

Efficient hybrid-game strategies coupled to evolutionary algorithms for robust multidisciplinary design optimization in aerospace engineering

A number of game strategies have been developed in past decades and used in the fields of economics, engineering, computer science, and biology due to their efficiency in solving design optimization problems. In addition, research in multiobjective and multidisciplinary design optimization has focused on developing a robust and efficient optimization method so it can produce a set of high quality solutions with less computational time. In this paper, two optimization techniques are considered; the first optimization method uses multifidelity hierarchical Pareto-optimality. The second optimization method uses the combination of game strategies Nash-equilibrium and Pareto-optimality. This paper shows how game strategies can be coupled to multiobjective evolutionary algorithms and robust design techniques to produce a set of high quality solutions. Numerical results obtained from both optimization methods are compared in terms of computational expense and model quality. The benefits of using Hybrid and non-Hybrid-Game strategies are demonstrated.

Hunters & gatherers : strategies for curriculum mapping and data collection for assurance of learning

Assurance of learning is a predominant feature in both quality enhancement and assurance in higher education. Assurance of learning is a process that articulates explicit program outcomes and standards, and systematically gathers evidence to determine the extent to which performance matches expectations. Benefits accrue to the institution through the systematic assessment of whole of program goals. Data may be used for continuous improvement, program development, and to inform external accreditation and evaluation bodies. Recent developments, including the introduction of the Tertiary Education and Quality Standards Agency (TEQSA) will require universities to review the methods they use to assure learning outcomes. This project investigates two critical elements of assurance of learning: 1. the mapping of graduate attributes throughout a program; and 2. the collection of assurance of learning data. An audit was conducted with 25 of the 39 Business Schools in Australian universities to identify current methods of mapping graduate attributes and for collecting assurance of learning data across degree programs, as well as a review of the key challenges faced in these areas. Our findings indicate that external drivers like professional body accreditation (for example: Association to Advance Collegiate Schools of Business (AACSB)) and TEQSA are important motivators for assuring learning, and those who were undertaking AACSB accreditation had more robust assurance of learning systems in place. It was reassuring to see that the majority of institutions (96%) had adopted an embedding approach to assuring learning rather than opting for independent standardised testing. The main challenges that were evident were the development of sustainable processes that were not considered a burden to academic staff, and obtainment of academic buy in to the benefits of assuring learning per se rather than assurance of learning being seen as a tick box exercise. This cultural change is the real challenge in assurance of learning practice.

Understanding the coping strategies of international students : a qualitative approach

International students encounter a range of additional challenges as a part of their tertiary study experience. A qualitative approach was used to understand the challenges faced by international students, coping strategies that promoted their personal resilience and advice they have for future international students. Twenty-two international students from an Australian university participated in four focus groups. The challenges identified by students included adjustment, social isolation, English language skills, academic difficulties, unmet expectations, employment, culture shock and psychological distress. Participants shared their own personal experiences and strategies used by them to cope and identified strategies that future students could use prior to leaving their home country and whilst in Australia to improve their adjustment. Uses of international student stories in prevention interventions are discussed.

Implementable efficient time and energy consumption trajectories design for an autonomous underwater vehicle

In this paper we consider the implementation of time and energy efficient trajectories onto a test-bed autonomous underwater vehicle. The trajectories are losely connected to the results of the application of the maximum principle to the controlled mechanical system. We use a numerical algorithm to compute efficient trajectories designed using geometric control theory to optimize a given cost function. Experimental results are shown for the time minimization problem.

Comparing the cost-effectiveness of MRSA control strategies between ICU and non-ICU settings

Introduction / objectives Many strategies are used to control MRSA in hospitals. Only a few have been assessed in clinical trials and it is not obvious how findings should be generalised between settings. Uncertainty remains about which strategies represent the most appropriate use of scarce resources. We assess the cost-effectiveness of alternative MRSA screening and infection control strategies in England and Wales and discuss international relevance. Methods Models of MRSA transmission in ICUs and general medical (GM) wards were developed and used to evaluate different screening methods combined with decolonisation or isolation. Strategies were compared in terms of costs and health benefits (quality adjusted life years, QALYs). Different prevalences, proportions of high risk patients and ward sizes were investigated, and probabilistic sensitivity analyses (PSA) conducted. Results Decolonisation strategies were cost-saving in ICUs at a 5% admission prevalence, with admission and weekly PCR screening the most cost-effective (£3,929/QALY). In ICUs, screening and isolation reduced infection rates by ~10%. With admission prevalence ≤5%, targeting screening and isolation to high risk patients was optimal. In GM wards decolonisation and isolation strategies, though able to reduce MRSA infection rates up to ~50%, were not cost-effective. Conclusion The largest reductions in MRSA infection were achieved by screening and decolonisation strategies, and were cost-effective in ICU settings. In comparison, there is limited potential for screening and control strategies to be cost-effective in GM wards due to lower infection and mortality rates.

Sky high and back again : the evolution of simulation-based design from aerospace to construction

Emerging from the challenge to reduce energy consumption in buildings is a need for research and development into the more effective use of simulation as a decision-support tool. Despite significant research, persistent limitations in process and software inhibit the integration of energy simulation in early architectural design. This paper presents a green star case study to highlight the obstacles commonly encountered with current integration strategies. It then examines simulation-based design in the aerospace industry, which has overcome similar limitations. Finally, it proposes a design system based on this contrasting approach, coupling parametric modelling and energy simulation software for rapid and iterative performance assessment of early design options.

Converting theory to practice : university-school collaboration on devising strategies for mentoring pedagogical knowledge

There appears no shortage of theorists for preservice teacher education; however many ideas are abandoned without practical applications. Indeed, it can take years for theories to materialise into practice, if they materialise at all. The quality of preservice teacher education is central for enhancing an education system, and mentors’ roles can assist to shape preservice teachers’ development within the school context. Yet mentoring can be haphazard without being underpinned by a theoretical framework. A mentoring model (personal attributes, system requirements, pedagogical knowledge, modelling, and feedback) has emerged from research and the literature to guide mentors’ practices. This qualitative study investigates mentors’ pedagogical knowledge as one factor crucial to the mentoring process. More specifically, this study involves a questionnaire and audio-recorded focus group meetings with experienced mentors (n=14) who deliberated on devising practical applications for mentoring pedagogical knowledge. Findings revealed that these experienced mentors pinpointed practical applications around a mentor’s role for providing pedagogical knowledge to the mentee. These strategies were varied and demonstrated that any one mentoring practice may be approached from a number of different angles. Nevertheless, there were core mentoring practices in pedagogical knowledge such as showing the mentee how to plan for teaching, articulating classroom management approaches, and talking about how to connect learning to assessment. Mentors may require education on current mentoring practices with practical strategies that are linked to theoretical underpinnings.