Working correlation structure misspecification, estimation and covariate design: Implications for generalised estimating equations performance

The method of generalised estimating equations for regression modelling of clustered outcomes allows for specification of a working matrix that is intended to approximate the true correlation matrix of the observations. We investigate the asymptotic relative efficiency of the generalised estimating equation for the mean parameters when the correlation parameters are estimated by various methods. The asymptotic relative efficiency depends on three-features of the analysis, namely (i) the discrepancy between the working correlation structure and the unobservable true correlation structure, (ii) the method by which the correlation parameters are estimated and (iii) the 'design', by which we refer to both the structures of the predictor matrices within clusters and distribution of cluster sizes. Analytical and numerical studies of realistic data-analysis scenarios show that choice of working covariance model has a substantial impact on regression estimator efficiency. Protection against avoidable loss of efficiency associated with covariance misspecification is obtained when a 'Gaussian estimation' pseudolikelihood procedure is used with an AR(1) structure.

A generalized estimating equations approach for analysis of the impact of new technology on a trawl fishery

The article describes a generalized estimating equations approach that was used to investigate the impact of technology on vessel performance in a trawl fishery during 1988-96, while accounting for spatial and temporal correlations in the catch-effort data. Robust estimation of parameters in the presence of several levels of clustering depended more on the choice of cluster definition than on the choice of correlation structure within the cluster. Models with smaller cluster sizes produced stable results, while models with larger cluster sizes, that may have had complex within-cluster correlation structures and that had within-cluster covariates, produced estimates sensitive to the correlation structure. The preferred model arising from this dataset assumed that catches from a vessel were correlated in the same years and the same areas, but independent in different years and areas. The model that assumed catches from a vessel were correlated in all years and areas, equivalent to a random effects term for vessel, produced spurious results. This was an unexpected finding that highlighted the need to adopt a systematic strategy for modelling. The article proposes a modelling strategy of selecting the best cluster definition first, and the working correlation structure (within clusters) second. The article discusses the selection and interpretation of the model in the light of background knowledge of the data and utility of the model, and the potential for this modelling approach to apply in similar statistical situations.

Estimating equations with nonignorably missing response data

Troxel, Lipsitz, and Brennan (1997, Biometrics 53, 857-869) considered parameter estimation from survey data with nonignorable nonresponse and proposed weighted estimating equations to remove the biases in the complete-case analysis that ignores missing observations. This paper suggests two alternative modifications for unbiased estimation of regression parameters when a binary outcome is potentially observed at successive time points. The weighting approach of Robins, Rotnitzky, and Zhao (1995, Journal of the American Statistical Association 90, 106-121) is also modified to obtain unbiased estimating functions. The suggested estimating functions are unbiased only when the missingness probability is correctly specified, and misspecification of the missingness model will result in biases in the estimates. Simulation studies are carried out to assess the performance of different methods when the covariate is binary or normal. For the simulation models used, the relative efficiency of the two new methods to the weighting methods is about 3.0 for the slope parameter and about 2.0 for the intercept parameter when the covariate is continuous and the missingness probability is correctly specified. All methods produce substantial biases in the estimates when the missingness model is misspecified or underspecified. Analysis of data from a medical survey illustrates the use and possible differences of these estimating functions.

Sequential allocation in clinical trials

Suppose two treatments with binary responses are available for patients with some disease and that each patient will receive one of the two treatments. In this paper we consider the interests of patients both within and outside a trial using a Bayesian bandit approach and conclude that equal allocation is not appropriate for either group of patients. It is suggested that Gittins indices should be used (using an approach called dynamic discounting by choosing the discount rate based on the number of future patients in the trial) if the disease is rare, and the least failures rule if the disease is common. Some analytical and simulation results are provided.

Automatic ICD-10 classification of cancers from free-text death certificates

Objective Death certificates provide an invaluable source for cancer mortality statistics; however, this value can only be realised if accurate, quantitative data can be extracted from certificates – an aim hampered by both the volume and variable nature of certificates written in natural language. This paper proposes an automatic classification system for identifying cancer related causes of death from death certificates. Methods Detailed features, including terms, n-grams and SNOMED CT concepts were extracted from a collection of 447,336 death certificates. These features were used to train Support Vector Machine classifiers (one classifier for each cancer type). The classifiers were deployed in a cascaded architecture: the first level identified the presence of cancer (i.e., binary cancer/nocancer) and the second level identified the type of cancer (according to the ICD-10 classification system). A held-out test set was used to evaluate the effectiveness of the classifiers according to precision, recall and F-measure. In addition, detailed feature analysis was performed to reveal the characteristics of a successful cancer classification model. Results The system was highly effective at identifying cancer as the underlying cause of death (F-measure 0.94). The system was also effective at determining the type of cancer for common cancers (F-measure 0.7). Rare cancers, for which there was little training data, were difficult to classify accurately (F-measure 0.12). Factors influencing performance were the amount of training data and certain ambiguous cancers (e.g., those in the stomach region). The feature analysis revealed a combination of features were important for cancer type classification, with SNOMED CT concept and oncology specific morphology features proving the most valuable. Conclusion The system proposed in this study provides automatic identification and characterisation of cancers from large collections of free-text death certificates. This allows organisations such as Cancer Registries to monitor and report on cancer mortality in a timely and accurate manner. In addition, the methods and findings are generally applicable beyond cancer classification and to other sources of medical text besides death certificates.

Learning with symmetric label noise: The importance of being unhinged

Convex potential minimisation is the de facto approach to binary classification. However, Long and Servedio [2008] proved that under symmetric label noise (SLN), minimisation of any convex potential over a linear function class can result in classification performance equivalent to random guessing. This ostensibly shows that convex losses are not SLN-robust. In this paper, we propose a convex, classification-calibrated loss and prove that it is SLN-robust. The loss avoids the Long and Servedio [2008] result by virtue of being negatively unbounded. The loss is a modification of the hinge loss, where one does not clamp at zero; hence, we call it the unhinged loss. We show that the optimal unhinged solution is equivalent to that of a strongly regularised SVM, and is the limiting solution for any convex potential; this implies that strong l2 regularisation makes most standard learners SLN-robust. Experiments confirm the unhinged loss’ SLN-robustness.

A flexible hierarchical approach for facial age estimation based on multiple features

Age estimation from facial images is increasingly receiving attention to solve age-based access control, age-adaptive targeted marketing, amongst other applications. Since even humans can be induced in error due to the complex biological processes involved, finding a robust method remains a research challenge today. In this paper, we propose a new framework for the integration of Active Appearance Models (AAM), Local Binary Patterns (LBP), Gabor wavelets (GW) and Local Phase Quantization (LPQ) in order to obtain a highly discriminative feature representation which is able to model shape, appearance, wrinkles and skin spots. In addition, this paper proposes a novel flexible hierarchical age estimation approach consisting of a multi-class Support Vector Machine (SVM) to classify a subject into an age group followed by a Support Vector Regression (SVR) to estimate a specific age. The errors that may happen in the classification step, caused by the hard boundaries between age classes, are compensated in the specific age estimation by a flexible overlapping of the age ranges. The performance of the proposed approach was evaluated on FG-NET Aging and MORPH Album 2 datasets and a mean absolute error (MAE) of 4.50 and 5.86 years was achieved respectively. The robustness of the proposed approach was also evaluated on a merge of both datasets and a MAE of 5.20 years was achieved. Furthermore, we have also compared the age estimation made by humans with the proposed approach and it has shown that the machine outperforms humans. The proposed approach is competitive with current state-of-the-art and it provides an additional robustness to blur, lighting and expression variance brought about by the local phase features.

Inventing the Future: Intellectual Property and 3D Printing

A new technology – 3D printing – has the potential to make radical changes to aspects of the way in which we live. Put simply, it allows people to download designs and turn them into physical objects by laying down successive layers of material. Replacements or parts for household objects such as toys, utensils and gadgets could become available at the press of a button. With this innovation, however, comes the need to consider impacts on a wide range of forms of intellectual property, as Dr Matthew Rimmer explains. 3D Printing is the latest in a long line of disruptive technologies – including photocopiers, cassette recorders, MP3 players, personal computers, peer to peer networks, and wikis – which have challenged intellectual property laws, policies, practices, and norms. As The Economist has observed, ‘Tinkerers with machines that turn binary digits into molecules are pioneering a whole new way of making things—one that could well rewrite the rules of manufacturing in much the same way as the PC trashed the traditional world of computing.’

Shifting centres: Pedagogical relations in the Era of Big Data

This paper presents a cautious argument for re-thinking both the nature and the centrality of the one-to-one teacher/student relationship in contemporary pedagogy. A case is made that learning in and for our times requires us to broaden our understanding of pedagogical relations beyond the singularity of the teacher/student binary and to promote the connected teacher as better placed to lead learning for these times. The argument proceeds in three parts: first, a characterization of our times as defined increasingly by the digital knowledge explosion of Big Data; second, a re-thinking of the nature of pedagogical relationships in the context of Big Data; and third, an account of the ways in which leaders can support their teachers to become more effective in leading learning by being more closely connected to their professional colleagues.

Appalling behaviour

'Appalling Behaviour' is a critically acclaimed contemporary Australian monologue, written by AWGIE Award winning playwright, Stephen House. This production, directed and creatively adapted by Shane Pike, was presented at the Brisbane Powerhouse in February 2016, as part of Queensland's LGBTIQ festival, Melt. This adaptation of the work experimented with notions of gender, taking the original script and manipulating character and scene to investigate expressions of identity beyond the traditional notions of binary gender-norms. To this end, the sole character (and actor) was (re)presented as a homeless bi-sexual queen with the aim of inferring that gender un/ab-normative characters can exist not only as disruptors/comments on/agitators of traditional expectations of performed gender (both onstage and off), but can also exist as accepted characters in and of themselves. Put simply: can a bi-sexual queen just be an actor/character in a play, or do all gender extra-normative characters inherently exist as political, social and cultural challengers? If so, why is this the case and should we be aiming for this kind of character to be an accepted part of the performative fabric, seamless and fitting within any onstage situation and play (why can't Willy Loman, King Lear or Nora be gender non-normative), or should such (re)presentations always exist as 'different'? Is it time for individual expressions of gender to just 'be' and be accepted as givens, or are we not quite there yet?

On the integration of self-tracking data amongst quantified self members

Self-tracking, the process of recording one's own behaviours, thoughts and feelings, is a popular approach to enhance one's self-knowledge. While dedicated self-tracking apps and devices support data collection, previous research highlights that the integration of data constitutes a barrier for users. In this study we investigated how members of the Quantified Self movement---early adopters of self-tracking tools---overcome these barriers. We conducted a qualitative analysis of 51 videos of Quantified Self presentations to explore intentions for collecting data, methods for integrating and representing data, and how intentions and methods shaped reflection. The findings highlight two different intentions---striving for self-improvement and curiosity in personal data---which shaped how these users integrated data, i.e. the effort required. Furthermore, we identified three methods for representing data---binary, structured and abstract---which influenced reflection. Binary representations supported reflection-in-action, whereas structured and abstract representations supported iterative processes of data collection, integration and reflection. For people tracking out of curiosity, this iterative engagement with personal data often became an end in itself, rather than a means to achieve a goal. We discuss how these findings contribute to our current understanding of self-tracking amongst Quantified Self members and beyond, and we conclude with directions for future work to support self-trackers with their aspirations.

Human action recognition from video sequences

This PhD research has proposed new machine learning techniques to improve human action recognition based on local features. Several novel video representation and classification techniques have been proposed to increase the performance with lower computational complexity. The major contributions are the construction of new feature representation techniques, based on advanced machine learning techniques such as multiple instance dictionary learning, Latent Dirichlet Allocation (LDA) and Sparse coding. A Binary-tree based classification technique was also proposed to deal with large amounts of action categories. These techniques are not only improving the classification accuracy with constrained computational resources but are also robust to challenging environmental conditions. These developed techniques can be easily extended to a wide range of video applications to provide near real-time performance.

On the expressive power of behavioral profiles

Behavioral profiles have been proposed as a behavioral abstraction of dynamic systems, specifically in the context of business process modeling. A behavioral profile can be seen as a complete graph over a set of task labels, where each edge is annotated with one relation from a given set of binary behavioral relations. Since their introduction, behavioral profiles were argued to provide a convenient way for comparing pairs of process models with respect to their behavior or computing behavioral similarity between process models. Still, as of today, there is little understanding of the expressive power of behavioral profiles. Via counter-examples, several authors have shown that behavioral profiles over various sets of behavioral relations cannot distinguish certain systems up to trace equivalence, even for restricted classes of systems represented as safe workflow nets. This paper studies the expressive power of behavioral profiles from two angles. Firstly, the paper investigates the expressive power of behavioral profiles and systems captured as acyclic workflow nets. It is shown that for unlabeled acyclic workflow net systems, behavioral profiles over a simple set of behavioral relations are expressive up to configuration equivalence. When systems are labeled, this result does not hold for any of several previously proposed sets of behavioral relations. Secondly, the paper compares the expressive power of behavioral profiles and regular languages. It is shown that for any set of behavioral relations, behavioral profiles are strictly less expressive than regular languages, entailing that behavioral profiles cannot be used to decide trace equivalence of finite automata and thus Petri nets.

Can an Ecdysiast Fag speak the voice of transgender? Phoenix (un)rising and the assumptions in Re Kevin revisited

"Each night the men look so surprised I change my sex before their eyes Tell me if you can What makes a man a man" - Charles Aznavour, ‘What makes a man a man (Comme ils disent)’. In (the few) Western jurisdictions in which marriage remains a forensic artefact constructed on the basis of a man|woman binary, the anatomical and heteronormative assumptions which underlie the construction of marriage remain as artificial constructs which do not map well (if indeed at all) to current social, or even medical, approaches to gender. In Re Kevin (Validity of Marriage of Transsexual) [2001] FamCA 1074, Justice Chisolm sought to recast the forensic ascription of sex against a broader set of criteria, expanding the range of sexually dimorphic anatomy used to determine sex for the purposes of marriage in Australia and incorporating observations of psycho-social gender-differentiation as factors relevant to the ultimate question for the Court — ‘What makes a man a man?’ Yet neither expansion is unproblematic. This article explores this fundamental forensic question against the background of Aznavour’s ‘Comme ils dissent’, in which the persona of un(e) stripteaseuse travesti struggles to answer precisely the same question. It concludes that Re Kevin might offer no more sophisticated an analysis of the lived reality of trans than Aznavour’s ecdysiast fag — not trans, but un travesti: "I shop and cook and sew a bit Though mum does too, I must admit I do it better."

Visual detection of occluded crop: For automated harvesting

This paper presents a novel crop detection system applied to the challenging task of field sweet pepper (capsicum) detection. The field-grown sweet pepper crop presents several challenges for robotic systems such as the high degree of occlusion and the fact that the crop can have a similar colour to the background (green on green). To overcome these issues, we propose a two-stage system that performs per-pixel segmentation followed by region detection. The output of the segmentation is used to search for highly probable regions and declares these to be sweet pepper. We propose the novel use of the local binary pattern (LBP) to perform crop segmentation. This feature improves the accuracy of crop segmentation from an AUC of 0.10, for previously proposed features, to 0.56. Using the LBP feature as the basis for our two-stage algorithm, we are able to detect 69.2% of field grown sweet peppers in three sites. This is an impressive result given that the average detection accuracy of people viewing the same colour imagery is 66.8%.