Development of health risk-based metrics for defining a heatwave : a time series study in Brisbane, Australia

Background: This study attempted to develop health risk-based metrics for defining a heatwave in Brisbane, Australia. Methods: Poisson generalised additive model was performed to assess the impact of heatwaves on mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) in Brisbane. Results: In general, the higher the intensity and the longer the duration of a heatwave, the greater the health impacts. There was no apparent difference in EHAs risk during different periods of a warm season. However, there was a greater risk of mortality in the second half of a warm season than that in the first half. While elderly (>75 years)were particularly vulnerable to both the EHA and mortality effects of a heatwave, the risk for EHAs also significantly increased for two other age groups (0-64 years and 65-74 years) during severe heatwaves. Different patterns between cardiorespiratory mortality and EHAs were observed. Based on these findings, we propose the use of a teiered heat warning system based on the health risk of heatwave. Conclusions: Health risk-based metrics are a useful tool for the development of local heatwave definitions. thsi tool may have significant implications for the assessment of heatwave-related health consequences and development of heatwave response plans and implementation strategies.

Optical Characterization of the Hole Polaron in a Series of Diketopyrrolopyrrole Polymers Used for Organic Photovoltaics

Abstract: A strategy that is often used for designing low band gap polymers involves the incorporation of electron-rich (donor) and electron-deficient (acceptor) conjugated segments within the polymer backbone. In this paper we investigate such a series of Diketopyrrolopyrrole (DPP)-based co-polymers. The co-polymers consisted of a DPP unit attached to a phenylene, naphthalene, or anthracene unit. Additionally, polymers utilizing either the thiophene-flanked DPP or the furan-flanked DPP units paired with the naphthalene comonomer were compared. As these polymers have been used as donor materials and subsequent hole transporting materials in organic solar cells, we are specifically interested in characterizing the optical absorption of the hole polaron of these DPP based copolymers. We employ chemical doping, electrochemical doping, and photoinduced absorption (PIA) studies to probe the hole polaron absorption spectra. While some donor-acceptor polymers have shown an appreciable capacity to generate free charge carriers upon photoexcitation, no polaron signal was observed in the PIA spectrum of the polymers in this study. The relations between molecular structure and optical properties are discussed. Keywords: organic solar cell; organic photovoltaic; diketopyrrolopyrrole; chemical doping; spectroelectrochemistry; photoinduced absorption; hole polaron

Lead the change series: Q & A with Allan Luke

An overview of current issues in school and system reform.

Secrets and lies

Secrets & Lies is an Australian drama television series that first screened on Network Ten on 3 March 2014. The series has aired in the Republic of Ireland on RTÉ TWO HD from 30 March, 2014 at 9.30pm. The series also debuted in Canada on the CBC in July 2014. It premiered in The Netherlands on RTL on 24 August 2014. Started in the UK on 23 September 2014 on Channel 5 and in France from January the 26 to February the 2 on France2. On 4 February 2014, the production company behind this version announced that a US version with the same title was in the works for ABC and would be co-produced with ABC Studios with a series penalty if the project is held back or not greenlighted by the network. The series premiered in the U.S. on 1 March 2015. Ryan Phillippe and Juliette Lewis stars in this adaptation. The series follows the story of a family man who finds the body of a young boy and quickly becomes the prime murder suspect. He has no choice but to try to find the real killer as his marriage, his kids, his reputation and his sanity are all at stake.

Fresh Cuttings: A Celebration of Fiction and Poetry from UQP's Black Writing Series

As the first anthology of UQP's indigenous-authored books, Fresh Cuttings represents the very best of fiction and poetry publishing from UQP's Black Australian Writing series. An introduction by the editors and a biography of each author is included.

U v U [2002] HCA 36: Commentary

This commentary offers a feminist analysis of relocation cases through the lens of U v U [2002] HCA 36, and with reference to the re-written judgment for the Australian Feminist Judgments project. First, the commentary considers the gendered nature of relocation cases, and analyses aspects of the reasoning and outcome of U v U that are of concern from a feminist perspective. Second, the commentary discusses how the re-written judgment addresses these concerns, thereby offering a feminist judgment on the issue of relocation in family law.

Alive SMC^2: Bayesian model selection for low-count time series models with intractable likelihoods

In this paper we present a new method for performing Bayesian parameter inference and model choice for low count time series models with intractable likelihoods. The method involves incorporating an alive particle filter within a sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) algorithm to create a novel pseudo-marginal algorithm, which we refer to as alive SMC^2. The advantages of this approach over competing approaches is that it is naturally adaptive, it does not involve between-model proposals required in reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo and does not rely on potentially rough approximations. The algorithm is demonstrated on Markov process and integer autoregressive moving average models applied to real biological datasets of hospital-acquired pathogen incidence, animal health time series and the cumulative number of poison disease cases in mule deer.

New insights into the molecular structure of kaolinite–methanol intercalation complexes

A series of kaolinite–methanol complexes with different basal spacings were synthesized using guest displacement reactions of the intercalation precursors kaolinite–N-methyformamide (Kaol–NMF), kaolinite–urea (Kaol–U), or kaolinite–dimethylsulfoxide (Kaol–DMSO), with methanol (Me). The interaction of methanol with kaolinite was examined using X-ray diffraction (XRD), infrared spectroscopy (IR), and nuclear magnetic resonance (NMR). Kaolinite (Kaol) initially intercalated with N-methyformamide (NMF), urea (U), or dimethylsulfoxide (DMSO) before subsequent reaction with Me formed final kaolinite–methanol (Kaol–Me) complexes characterized by basal spacing ranging between 8.6 Å and 9.6 Å, depending on the pre-intercalated reagent. Based on a comparative analysis of the three Kaol–Me displacement intercalation complexes, three types of Me intercalation products were suggested to have been present in the interlayer space of Kaol: (1) molecules grafted onto a kaolinite octahedral sheet in the form of a methoxy group (Al-O-C bond); (2) mobile Me and/or water molecules kept in the interlayer space via hydrogen bonds that could be partially removed during drying; and (3) a mixture of types 1 and 2, with the methoxy group (Al-O-C bond) grafted onto the Kaol sheet and mobile Me and/or water molecules coexisted in the system after the displacement reaction by Me. Various structural models that reflected four possible complexes of Kaol–Me were constructed for use in a complimentary computational study. Results from the calculation of the methanol kaolinite interaction indicate that the hydroxyl oxygen atom of methanol plays the dominant role in the stabilization and localization of the molecule intercalated in the interlayer space, and that water existing in the intercalated Kaol layer is inevitable.

The structures of the isomorphous potassium and rubidium salts of 4-nitrobenzoic acid and an overview of the metal complex stereochemistries of the alkali metal salt series with this ligand

The structures of the isomorphous potassium and rubidium polymeric coordination complexes with 4-nitrobenzoic acid, poly[mu2-aqua-aqua-mu3-(4-nitrobenzoato)-potassium], [K(C7H4N2O2)(H2O)2]n, (I) and poly[mu3-aqua-aqua-mu5-(4-nitrobenzoato)-rubidium], [Rb(C7H4N2O2)(H2O)2]n, (II) have been determined. In (I) the very distorted KO6 coordination sphere about the K+ centres in the repeat unit comprise two bridging nitro O-atom donors, a single bridging carboxyl O-atom donor and two water molecules, one of which is bridging. In the the Rb complex (II), the same basic MO6 coordination is found in the repeat unit but is expanded to RbO9 through a slight increase in the accepted Rb-O bond length range and includes an additional Rb-O(carboxyl) bond, completing a bidentate O,O'-chelate interaction, and additional bridging Rb-Onitro) and Rb-O(water) bonds. The comparative K-O and Rb-O bond length ranges are 2.738(3)-3.002(3)Ang. (I) and 2.884(2)-3.182(2)Ang. (II). The structure of (II) is also isomorphous as well as isostructural with the known structure of the nine-coordinate caesium 4-nitrobenzoate analogue, [Cs(C7H4N2O~2~)(H~2~O)2]n, (III) in which the Cs---O range is 3.047(4)-3.338(4)Ang. In all three complexes, common basic polymeric extensions are found, including two different centrosymmetric bridging interactions through both water and nitro groups as well as extensions along c through the p-related carboxyl group, giving a two-dimensional structure in (I). In (II) and (III), three-dimensional structures are generated through additional bridges through the nitro and water O-atoms. In all structures, both water molecules are involved in similar intra-polymer O-H...O hydrogen-bonding interactions to both carboxyl as well as water O-atom acceptors. A comparison of the varied coordination behaviour of the full set of Li-Cs salts with 4-nitrobenzoic acid is also made.

Low δ18O zircons from the Bruneau-­Jarbidge eruptive center: A key to crustal anatexis along the track of the Yellowstone hotspot

The Bruneau-Jarbidge eruptive center (BJEC) in the central Snake River Plain, Idaho, USA consists of the Cougar Point Tuff (CPT), a series of ten, high-temperature (900-1000°C) voluminous ignimbrites produced over the explosive phase of volcanism (12.8-10.5 Ma) and more than a dozen equally high-temperature rhyolite lava flows produced during the effusive phase (10.5-8 Ma). Spot analyses by ion microprobe of oxygen isotope ratios in 210 zircons demonstrate that all of the eruptive units of the BJEC are characterized by zircon δ¹⁸O values ≤ 2.5‰, thus documenting the largest low δ¹⁸O silicic volcanic province known on Earth (>10⁴ km³). There is no evidence for voluminous normal δ¹⁸O magmatism at the BJEC that precedes generation of low δ¹⁸O magmas as there is at other volcanic centers that generate low δ¹⁸O magmas such as Heise and Yellowstone. At these younger volcanic centers of the hotspot track, such low δ¹⁸O magmas represent ~45 % and ~20% respectively of total eruptive volumes. Zircons in all BJEC tuffs and lavas studied (23 units) document strong δ¹⁸O depletion (median CPT δ¹⁸OZrc = 1.0‰, post-CPT lavas = 1.5‰) with the third member of the CPT recording an excursion to minimum δ¹⁸O values (δ¹⁸OZrc= -1.8‰) in a supereruption > 2‰ lower than other voluminous low δ¹⁸O rhyolites known worldwide (δ¹⁸OWR ≤0.9 vs. 3.4‰). Subsequent units of the CPT and lavas record a progressive recovery in δ¹⁸OZrc to ~2.5‰ over a ~ 4 m.y. interval (12 to 8 Ma). We present detailed evidence of unit-to-unit systematic patterns in O isotopic zoning in zircons (i.e. direction and magnitude of Δcore-rim), spectrum of δ¹⁸O in individual units, and zircon inheritance patterns established by re-analysis of spots for U-Th-Pb isotopes by LA-ICPMS and SHRIMP. In conjunction with mineral thermometry and magma compositions, these patterns are difficult to reconcile with the well-established model for "cannibalistic" low δ¹⁸O magma genesis at Heise and Yellowstone. We present an alternative model for the central Snake River Plain using the modeling results of Leeman et al. (2008) for ¹⁸O depletion as a function of depth in a mid-upper crustal protolith that was hydrothermally altered by infiltrating meteoric waters prior to the onset of silicic magmatism. The model proposes that BJEC silicic magmas were generated in response to the propagation of a melting front, driven by the incremental growth of a vast underlying mafic sill complex, over a ~5 m.y. interval through a crustal volume in which a vertically asymmetric δ¹⁸OWR gradient had previously developed that was sharply inflected from ~ -1 to 10‰ at mid-upper crustal depths. Within the context of the model, data from BJEC zircons are consistent with incremental melting and mixing events in roof zones of magma reservoirs that accompany surfaceward advance of the coupled mafic-silicic magmatic system.

Health and prevention among East African women in the U.S.

African-born individuals in the U.S. face significant health challenges, including low utilization of preventive screening services. Using a community-based participatory research framework, we describe preliminary efforts at establishing a collaborative relationship with the East African communities of San Diego, identifying salient community health needs, and developing a framework for disseminating information and addressing identified health gaps. To this end, 40 East African-born women participated in focus groups with the purpose of eliciting community perspectives on U.S. health care services, beliefs about preventive screening, and to garner recommendations for future outreach. Qualitative analyses identified participants’ desire to engage in primary prevention techniques that incorporated best practices from their home countries and the U.S., and the need for health education programs to provide information on increasingly prevalent chronic diseases. The findings are discussed in connection with continued community-engaged efforts and the implications for health and resettlement policies to reduce inequities disfavoring resettled refugees.

Multifractal analyses of daily rainfall time series in Pearl River basin of China

The multifractal properties of daily rainfall time series at the stations in Pearl River basin of China over periods of up to 45 years are examined using the universal multifractal approach based on the multiplicative cascade model and the multifractal detrended fluctuation analysis (MF-DFA). The results from these two kinds of multifractal analyses show that the daily rainfall time series in this basin have multifractal behavior in two different time scale ranges. It is found that the empirical multifractal moment function K(q)K(q) of the daily rainfall time series can be fitted very well by the universal multifractal model (UMM). The estimated values of the conservation parameter HH from UMM for these daily rainfall data are close to zero indicating that they correspond to conserved fields. After removing the seasonal trend in the rainfall data, the estimated values of the exponent h(2)h(2) from MF-DFA indicate that the daily rainfall time series in Pearl River basin exhibit no long-term correlations. It is also found that K(2)K(2) and elevation series are negatively correlated. It shows a relationship between topography and rainfall variability.

Association between the interleukin 23 receptor and ankylosing spondylitis is confirmed by a new UK case-control study and meta-analysis of published series

Objectives. It has been shown previously that IL-23R variants are associated with AS. We conducted an extended analysis in the UK population and a meta-analysis with the previously published studies, in order to refine these IL-23R associations with AS. Methods. The UK case-control study included 730 new cases and 1331 healthy controls. In the extended study, the 730 cases were combined with 1088 published cases. Allelic associations were analysed using contingency tables. In the meta-analysis, 3482 cases and 3150 controls from four different published studies and the new UK cases were combined. DerSimonian-Laird test was used to calculate random effects pooled odds ratios (ORs). Results. In the UK case-control study with new cases, four of the eight SNPs showed significant associations, whereas in the extended UK study, seven of the eight IL-23R SNPs showed significant associations (P < 0.05) with AS, maximal with rs11209032 (P < 10-5, OR 1.3), when cases with IBD and/or psoriasis were excluded. The meta-analysis showed significant associations with all eight SNPs; the strongest associations were again seen not only with rs11209032 (P = 4.06 × 10-9, OR ∼1.2) but also with rs11209026 (P < 10-10, OR ∼0.6). Conclusions. IL-23R polymorphisms are clearly associated with AS, but the primary causal association(s) is(are) still not established. These polymorphisms could contribute either increased or decreased susceptibility to AS; functional studies will be required for their full evaluation. Additionally, observed stronger associations with SNPs rs11209026 and rs11465804 upon exclusion of IBD and/or psoriasis cases may represent an independent association with AS. © The Author 2009. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Rheumatology. All rights reserved.

Investigating the genetic association between ERAP1 and ankylosing spondylitis

A strong association between ERAP1 and ankylosing spondylitis (AS) was recently identified by the Wellcome Trust Case Control Consortium and the Australo-Anglo-American Spondylitis Consortium (WTCCC-TASC) study. ERAP1 is highly polymorphic with strong linkage disequilibrium evident across the gene. We therefore conducted a series of experiments to try to identify the primary genetic association(s) with ERAP1. We replicated the original associations in an independent set of 730 patients and 1021 controls, resequenced ERAP1 to define the full extent of coding polymorphisms and tested all variants in additional association studies. The genetic association with ERAP1 was independently confirmed; the strongest association was with rs30187 in the replication set (P = 3.4 × 103). When the data were combined with the original WTCCC-TASC study the strongest association was with rs27044 (P = 1.1 × 10-9). We identified 33 sequence polymorphisms in ERAP1, including three novel and eight known non-synonymous polymorphisms. We report several new associations between AS and polymorphisms distributed across ERAP1 from the extended case-control study, the most significant of which was with rs27434 (P = 4.7 × 10-7). Regression analysis failed to identify a primary association clearly; we therefore used data from HapMap to impute genotypes for an additional 205 non-coding SNPs located within and adjacent to ERAP1. A number of highly significant associations (P < 5 × 10-9) were identified in regulatory sequences which are good candidates for causing susceptibility to AS, possibly by regulating ERAP1 expression. © 2009 The Author(s).

On the efficacy of Fourier series approximations for pricing European options

This paper investigates several competing procedures for computing the prices of vanilla European options, such as puts, calls and binaries, in which the underlying model has a characteristic function that is known in semi-closed form. The algorithms investigated here are the half-range Fourier cosine series, the half-range Fourier sine series and the full-range Fourier series. Their performance is assessed in simulation experiments in which an analytical solution is available and also for a simple affine model of stochastic volatility in which there is no closed-form solution. The results suggest that the half-range sine series approximation is the least effective of the three proposed algorithms. It is rather more difficult to distinguish between the performance of the halfrange cosine series and the full-range Fourier series. However there are two clear differences. First, when the interval over which the density is approximated is relatively large, the full-range Fourier series is at least as good as the half-range Fourier cosine series, and outperforms the latter in pricing out-of-the-money call options, in particular with maturities of three months or less. Second, the computational time required by the half-range Fourier cosine series is uniformly longer than that required by the full-range Fourier series for an interval of fixed length. Taken together,these two conclusions make a case for pricing options using a full-range range Fourier series as opposed to a half-range Fourier cosine series if a large number of options are to be priced in as short a time as possible.