An experimental analysis of information acquisition in prediction markets

We study which factors in terms of trading environment and trader characteristics determine individual information acquisition in experimental asset markets. Traders with larger endowments, existing inconclusive information, lower risk aversion, and less experience in financial markets tend to acquire more information. Overall, we find that traders overacquire information, so that informed traders on average obtain negative profits net of information costs. Information acquisition and the associated losses do not diminish over time. This overacquisition phenomenon is inconsistent with predictions of rational expectations equilibrium, and we argue it resembles the overdissipation results from the contest literature. We find that more acquired information in the market leads to smaller differences between fundamental asset values and prices. Thus, the overacquisition phenomenon is a novel explanation for the high forecasting accuracy of prediction markets.

Lost in space: The place of the architectural milieu in the aetiology and treatment of schizophrenia

Purpose – Psychological and epidemiological literature suggests that the built environment plays both causal and therapeutic roles in schizophrenia, but what are the implications for designers? The purpose of this paper is to focus on the role the built environment plays in psycho‐environmental dynamics, in order that negative effects can be avoided and beneficial effects emphasised in architectural design. Design/methodology/approach – The approach taken is a translational exploration of the dynamics between the built environment and psychotic illness, using primary research from disciplines as diverse as epidemiology, neurology and psychology. Findings – The built environment is conceived as being both an agonist and as an antagonist for the underlying processes that present as psychosis. The built environment is implicated through several means, through the opportunities it provides. These may be physical, narrative, emotional, hedonic or personal. Some opportunities may be negative, and others positive. The built environment is also an important source of unexpected aesthetic stimulation, yet in psychotic illnesses, aesthetic sensibilities characteristically suffer from deterioration. Research limitations/implications – The findings presented are based on research that is largely translated from very different fields of enquiry. Whilst findings are cogent and logical, much of the support is correlational rather than empirical. Social implications – The WHO claims that schizophrenia destroys 24 million lives worldwide, with an exponential effect on human and financial capital. Because evidence implicates the built environment, architectural and urban designers may have a role to play in reducing the human costs wrought by the illness. Originality/value – Never before has architecture been so explicitly implicated as a cause of mental illness. This paper was presented to the Symposium of Mental Health Facility Design, and is essential reading for anyone involved in designing for improved mental health.

Demand for, and impediments to, the disclosure of information about climate change-related corporate governance practices

Based on a survey of climate change experts in different stakeholder groups and interviews with corporate climate change managers, this study provides insights into the gap between what information stakeholders expect, and what Australian corporations disclose. This paper focuses on annual reports and sustainability reports with specific reference to the disclosure of climate change-related corporate governance practices. The findings culminate in the governance practises. Interview results indicate that the low levels of disclosures made by Australian companies may be due to a number of factors. A lack of proactive stakeholder engagement and an apparent preoccupation with financial performance and advancing shareholders interest, coupled with a failure by managers to accept accountability, seems to go a long way to explaining low levels of disclosure.

Strategies for the management and treatment of coal seam gas associated water

Coal seam gas (CSG) is a growing industry in Queensland and represents a potential major employer and deliverer of financial prosperity for years to come. CSG is a natural gas composed primarily of methane and is found trapped underground in coal beds. During the gas extraction process, significant volumes of associated water are also produced. This associated water could be a valuable resource, however, the associated water comprises of various salt constituents that make it problematic for beneficial use. Consequently, there is a need to implement various water treatment strategies to purify the associated water to comply with Queensland’s strict guidelines and to mitigate environmental risks. The resultant brine is also of importance as ultimately it also has to be dealt with in an economical manner. In some ways it can be considered that the CSG industry does not face a water problem, as this has inherent value to society, but rather has a “salt issue” to solve. This study analyzes the options involved in both the water treatment and salt recovery processes. A brief overview of the constituents present in Queensland CS water is made to illustrate the challenges involved and a range of treatment technologies discussed. Water treatment technologies examined include clarification (ballasted flocculation, dissolved air flotation, electrocoagulation), membrane filtration (ultrafiltration), ion exchange softening and desalination (ion exchange, reverse osmosis desalination and capacitance deionization). In terms of brine management we highlighted reinjection, brine concentration ponds, membrane techniques (membrane distillation, forward osmosis), thermal methods, electrodialysis, electrodialysis reversal, bipolar membrane electrodialysis, wind assisted intensive evaporation, membrane crystallization, eutectic freeze crystallization and vapor compression. As an entirety this investigation is designed to be an important tool in developing CS water treatment management strategies for effective management in Queensland and worldwide.

Dasatinib, nilotinib and standard-dose imatinib for the first line treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia: Systematic reviews and economic analyses

- Background Nilotinib and dasatinib are now being considered as alternative treatments to imatinib as a first-line treatment of chronic myeloid leukaemia (CML). - Objective This technology assessment reviews the available evidence for the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of dasatinib, nilotinib and standard-dose imatinib for the first-line treatment of Philadelphia chromosome-positive CML. - Data sources Databases [including MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE, Current Controlled Trials, ClinicalTrials.gov, the US Food and Drug Administration website and the European Medicines Agency website] were searched from search end date of the last technology appraisal report on this topic in October 2002 to September 2011. - Review methods A systematic review of clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness studies; a review of surrogate relationships with survival; a review and critique of manufacturer submissions; and a model-based economic analysis. - Results Two clinical trials (dasatinib vs imatinib and nilotinib vs imatinib) were included in the effectiveness review. Survival was not significantly different for dasatinib or nilotinib compared with imatinib with the 24-month follow-up data available. The rates of complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and major molecular response (MMR) were higher for patients receiving dasatinib than for those with imatinib for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR 83% vs 72%, p < 0.001; MMR 46% vs 28%, p < 0.0001). The rates of CCyR and MMR were higher for patients receiving nilotinib than for those receiving imatinib for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR 80% vs 65%, p < 0.001; MMR 44% vs 22%, p < 0.0001). An indirect comparison analysis showed no difference between dasatinib and nilotinib for CCyR or MMR rates for 12 months' follow-up (CCyR, odds ratio 1.09, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.92; MMR, odds ratio 1.28, 95% CI 0.77 to 2.16). There is observational association evidence from imatinib studies supporting the use of CCyR and MMR at 12 months as surrogates for overall all-cause survival and progression-free survival in patients with CML in chronic phase. In the cost-effectiveness modelling scenario, analyses were provided to reflect the extensive structural uncertainty and different approaches to estimating OS. First-line dasatinib is predicted to provide very poor value for money compared with first-line imatinib, with deterministic incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) of between £256,000 and £450,000 per quality-adjusted life-year (QALY). Conversely, first-line nilotinib provided favourable ICERs at the willingness-to-pay threshold of £20,000-30,000 per QALY. - Limitations Immaturity of empirical trial data relative to life expectancy, forcing either reliance on surrogate relationships or cumulative survival/treatment duration assumptions. - Conclusions From the two trials available, dasatinib and nilotinib have a statistically significant advantage compared with imatinib as measured by MMR or CCyR. Taking into account the treatment pathways for patients with CML, i.e. assuming the use of second-line nilotinib, first-line nilotinib appears to be more cost-effective than first-line imatinib. Dasatinib was not cost-effective if decision thresholds of £20,000 per QALY or £30,000 per QALY were used, compared with imatinib and nilotinib. Uncertainty in the cost-effectiveness analysis would be substantially reduced with better and more UK-specific data on the incidence and cost of stem cell transplantation in patients with chronic CML. - Funding The Health Technology Assessment Programme of the National Institute for Health Research.

Complete cytogenetic response and major molecular response as surrogate outcomes for overall survival in first-line treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia: A case study for technology appraisal on the basis of surrogate outcomes evidence

Objectives In 2012, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence assessed dasatinib, nilotinib, and standard-dose imatinib as first-line treatment of chronic phase chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML). Licensing of these alternative treatments was based on randomized controlled trials assessing complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and major molecular response (MMR) at 12 months as primary end points. We use this case study to illustrate the validation of CCyR and MMR as surrogate outcomes for overall survival in CML and how this evidence was used to inform National Institute for Health and Care Excellence’s recommendation on the public funding of these first-line treatments for CML. Methods We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify the association between CCyR and MMR at 12 months and overall survival in patients with chronic phase CML. We estimated life expectancy by extrapolating long-term survival from the weighted overall survival stratified according to the achievement of CCyR and MMR. Results Five studies provided data on the observational association between CCyR or MMR and overall survival. Based on the pooled association between CCyR and MMR and overall survival, our modeling showed comparable predicted mean duration of survival (21–23 years) following first-line treatment with imatinib, dasatinib, or nilotinib. Conclusions This case study illustrates the consideration of surrogate outcome evidence in health technology assessment. Although it is often recommended that the acceptance of surrogate outcomes be based on randomized controlled trial data demonstrating an association between the treatment effect on both the surrogate outcome and the final outcome, this case study shows that policymakers may be willing to accept a lower level of evidence (i.e., observational association).

The long-run impact of Information and Communication Technology on economic output: The case of Australia

This paper investigates the cointegration and causal relationships between Information and Communication Technology (ICT) and economic output in Australia using data for about five decades. The framework used in this paper is the single-sector aggregate production function, which is the first comprehensive approach of this kind to include ICT and non-ICT capital and other factors to examine long-run Granger causality. The empirical evidence points to a cointegration relationship between ICT capital and output, and implies that ICT capital Granger causes economic output and multifactor productivity, as does non-ICT capital.

On the contribution of information and communication technology to productivity growth in Australia

This paper revisits the so-called ‘ICT-productivity paradox’ from a long-run perspective by using annual Australian data for 1965–2013. It provides estimates of long-run and short-run elasticities of labour productivity with respect to ICT capital deepening, and explores the nature of long-run causality among productivity growth and ICT and non-ICT capital deepening. The estimates of long-run elasticities are derived by employing both time-series and panel data econometric techniques. The empirical results provide strong confirmatory evidence of the long-run impact of ICT capital deepening on labour productivity in Australia.

Applicability of pebble matrix filtration for the pre-treatment of surface waters containing high turbidity and NOM

Purification of drinking water is routinely achieved by use of conventional coagulants and disinfection procedures. However, there are instances such as flood events when the level of turbidity reaches extreme levels while NOM may be an issue throughout the year. Consequently, there is a need to develop technologies which can effectively treat water of high turbidity during flood events and natural organic matter (NOM) content year round. It was our hypothesis that pebble matrix filtration potentially offered a relatively cheap, simple and reliable means to clarify such challenging water samples. Therefore, a laboratory scale pebble matrix filter (PMF) column was used to evaluate the turbidity and natural organic matter (NOM) pre-treatment performance in relation to 2013 Brisbane River flood water. Since the high turbidity was only a seasonal and short term problem, the general applicability of pebble matrix filters for NOM removal was also investigated. A 1.0 m deep bed of pebbles (the matrix) partly in-filled with either sand or crushed glass was tested, upon which was situated a layer of granular activated carbon (GAC). Turbidity was measured as a surrogate for suspended solids (SS), whereas, total organic carbon (TOC) and UV Absorbance at 254 nm were measured as surrogate parameters for NOM. Experiments using natural flood water showed that without the addition of any chemical coagulants, PMF columns achieved at least 50% turbidity reduction when the source water contained moderate hardness levels. For harder water samples, above 85% turbidity reduction was obtained. The ability to remove 50% turbidity without chemical coagulants may represent significant cost savings to water treatment plants and added environmental benefits accrue due to less sludge formation. A TOC reduction of 35-47% and UV-254 nm reduction of 24-38% was also observed. In addition to turbidity removal during flood periods, the ability to remove NOM using the pebble matrix filter throughout the year may have the benefit of reducing disinfection by-products (DBP) formation potential and coagulant demand at water treatment plants. Final head losses were remarkably low, reaching only 11 cm at a filtration velocity of 0.70 m/h.

Consensus statement on the role of Accredited Exercise Physiologists within the treatment of mental disorders: A guide for mental health professionals

- Objective The aim is to identify the role and scope of Accredited Exercise Physiologist (AEP) services in the mental health sector and to provide insight as to how AEPs can contribute to the multidisciplinary mental health team. - Methods A modified Delphi approach was utilised. Thirteen AEPs with experience in mental health contributed to the iterative development of a national consensus statement. Six mental health professionals with expertise in psychiatry, mental health nursing, general practice and mental health research participated in the review process. Reviewers were provided with a template to systematically provide feedback on the language, content, structure and relevance to their professional group. - Results This consensus statement outlines how AEPs can contribute to the multidisciplinary mental health team, the aims and scope of AEP-led interventions in mental health services and examples of such interventions, the range of physical and mental health outcomes possible through AEP-led interventions and common referral pathways to community AEP services. - Outcome AEPs can play a key role in the treatment of individuals experiencing mental illness. The diversity of AEP interventions allows for a holistic approach to care, enhancing both physical and mental health outcomes.

Complexity of collaborative work in residential aged care facilities: An analysis of information exchange for medication management

Information exchange (IE) is a critical component of the complex collaborative medication process in residential aged care facilities (RACFs). Designing information and communication technology (ICT) to support complex processes requires a profound understanding of the IE that underpins their execution. There is little existing research that investigates the complexity of IE in RACFs and its impact on ICT design. The aim of this study was thus to undertake an in-depth exploration of the IE process involved in medication management to identify its implications for the design of ICT. The study was undertaken at a large metropolitan facility in NSW, Australia. A total of three focus groups, eleven interviews and two observation sessions were conducted between July to August 2010. Process modelling was undertaken by translating the qualitative data via in-depth iterative inductive analysis. The findings highlight the complexity and collaborative nature of IE in RACF medication management. These models emphasize the need to: a) deal with temporal complexity; b) rely on an interdependent set of coordinative artefacts; and c) use synchronous communication channels for coordination. Taken together these are crucial aspects of the IE process in RACF medication management that need to be catered for when designing ICT in this critical area. This study provides important new evidence of the advantages of viewing process as a part of a system rather than as segregated tasks as a means of identifying the latent requirements for ICT design and that is able to support complex collaborative processes like medication management in RACFs. © 2012 IEEE.

Behaviour of natural zeolites used for the treatment of simulated and actual coal seam gas water

Coal seam gas operations produce significant quantities of associated water which often require demineralization. Ion exchange with natural zeolites has been proposed as a possible approach. The interaction of natural zeolites with solutions of sodium chloride and sodium bicarbonate in addition to coal seam gas water is not clear. Hence, we investigated ion exchange kinetics, equilibrium, and column behaviour of an Australian natural zeolite. Kinetic tests suggested that the pseudo first order equation best simulated the data. Intraparticle diffusion was part of the rate limiting step and more than one diffusion process controlled the overall rate of sodium ion uptake. Using a constant mass of zeolite and variable concentration of either sodium chloride or sodium bicarbonate resulted in a convex isotherm which was fitted by a Langmuir model. However, using a variable mass of zeolite and constant concentration of sodium ions revealed that the exchange of sodium ions with the zeolite surface sites was in fact unfavourable. Sodium ion exchange from bicarbonate solutions (10.3 g Na/kg zeolite) was preferred relative to exchange from sodium chloride solutions (6.4 g Na/kg zeolite). The formation of calcium carbonate species was proposed to explain the observed behaviour. Column studies of coal seam gas water showed that natural zeolite had limited ability to reduce the concentration of sodium ions (loading 2.1 g Na/kg zeolite) with rapid breakthrough observed. It was concluded that natural zeolites may not be suitable for the removal of cations from coal seam gas water without improvement of their physical properties.

Systematic review of interventions to improve the provision of information for adults with primary brain tumours and their caregivers

Background: Adults with primary brain tumors and their caregivers have significant information needs. This review assessed the effect of interventions to improve information provision for adult primary brain tumor patients and/or their caregivers. Methods: We included randomized or nonrandomized trials testing educational interventions that had outcomes of information provision, knowledge, understanding, recall, or satisfaction with the intervention, for adults diagnosed with primary brain tumors and/or their family or caregivers. PubMed, MEDLINE, EMBASE and Cochrane Reviews databases were searched for studies published between 1980 and June 2014. Results: Two randomized controlled, one non-randomized controlled, and 10 single group pre-post trials enrolled more than 411 participants. Five group, four practice/process change and four individual interventions assessed satisfaction (12 studies), knowledge (four studies) or information provision (2 studies). Nine studies reported high rates of satisfaction. Three studies showed statistically significant improvements over time in knowledge and two showed greater information was provided to intervention than control group participants, although statistical testing was not performed. Discussion: The trials assessed intermediate outcomes such as satisfaction, and only 4/13 reported on knowledge improvements. Few trials had a randomized controlled design and risk of bias was either evident or could not be assessed in most domains.

The Use of Mesenchymal Stromal Cells in the Treatment of Diseases of the Cornea

As a key component of the ocular surface required for vision, the cornea has been extensively studied as a site for cell and tissue-based therapies. Historically, these treatments have consisted of donor corneal tissue transplants, but cultivated epithelial autografts have become established over the last 15 years as a routine treatment for ocular surface disease. Ultimately, these treatments are performed with the intention of restoring corneal transparency and a smooth ocular surface. The degree of success, however, is often dependent upon the inherent level of corneal inflammation at time of treatment. In this regard, the anti-inflammatory and immuno-modulatory properties of mesenchymal stromal cells (MSC) have drawn attention to these cells as potential therapeutic agents for corneal repair. The origins for MSC-based therapies are founded in part on observations of the recruitment of endogenous bone marrow-derived cells to injured corneas, however, an increasing quantity of data is emerging for MSC administered following their isolation and ex vivo expansion from a variety of tissues including bone marrow, adipose tissue, umbilical cord and dental pulp. In brief, evidence has emerged of cultured MSC, or their secreted products, having a positive impact on corneal wound healing and retention of corneal allografts in animal models. Optimal dosage, route of administration and timing of treatment, however, all remain active areas of investigation. Intriguingly, amidst these studies, have emerged reports of MSC transdifferentiation into corneal cells. Clearest evidence has been obtained with respect to expression of markers associated with the phenotype of corneal stromal cells. In contrast, the evidence for MSC conversion to corneal epithelial cell types remains inconclusive. In any case, the conversion of MSC into corneal cells seems unlikely to be an essential requirement for their clinical use. This field of research has recently become more complicated by reports of MSC-like properties for cultures established from the peripheral corneal stroma (limbal stroma). The relationship and relative value of corneal-MSC compared to traditional sources of MSC such as bone marrow are at present unclear. This chapter is divided into four main parts. After providing a concise overview of corneal structure and function, we will highlight the types of corneal diseases that are likely to benefit from the anti-inflammatory and immuno-modulatory properties of MSC. We will subsequently summarize the evidence supporting the case for MSC-based therapies in the treatment of corneal diseases. In the third section we will review the literature concerning the keratogenic potential of MSC. Finally, we will review the more recent literature indicating the presence of MSC-like cells derived from corneal tissue.

Reasoning about discontinuance of information system use

While many studies have explored conditions and consequences of information systems adoption and use, few have focused on the final stages of the information system lifecycle. In this paper, I develop a theoretical and an initial empirical contribution to understanding individuals’ intentions to discontinue the use of an information system. This understanding is important because it yields implications about maintenance, retirement, and users’ switching decisions, which ultimately can affect work performance, system effectiveness, and return on technology investments. In this paper, I offer a new conceptualization of factors determining users’ intentions to discontinue the use of information systems. I then report on a preliminary empirical test of the model using data from a field study of information system users in a promotional planning routine in a large retail organization. Results from the empirical analysis provide first empirical support for the theoretical model. I discuss the work’s implications for theory on information systems continuance and dual-factor logic in information system use. I also provide suggestions for managers dealing with cessation of information systems and broader work routine change in organizations due to information system end-of-life decisions.