The effects of lane-changing on the immediate follower : anticipation, relaxation, and change in driver characteristics

This paper investigates the effects of lane-changing in driver behavior by measuring (i) the induced transient behavior and (ii) the change in driver characteristics, i.e., changes in driver response time and minimum spacing. We find that the transition largely consists of a pre-insertion transition and a relaxation process. These two processes are different but can be reasonably captured with a single model. The findings also suggest that lane-changing induces a regressive effect on driver characteristics: a timid driver (characterized by larger response time and minimum spacing) tends to become less timid and an aggressive driver less aggressive. We offer an extension to Newell’s car-following model to describe this regressive effect and verify it using vehicle trajectory data.

Performance evaluation of onsite sewage treatment : results of soil investigations

Background The onsite treatment of sewage and effluent disposal is widely prevalent in rural and urban fringe areas due to the general unavailability of reticulated wastewater collection systems. Despite the low technology of the systems, failure is common and in many cases leading to adverse public health and environmental consequences. It is important therefore that careful consideration is given to the design and location of onsite sewage treatment systems. This requires an understanding of the factors that influence treatment performance. The use of subsurface absorption systems is the most common form of effluent disposal for onsite sewage treatment, particularly for septic tanks. Also, in the case of septic tanks, a subsurface disposal system is generally an integral component of the sewage treatment process. Site specific factors play a key role in the onsite treatment of sewage. The project The primary aims of the research project were: • to relate treatment performance of onsite sewage treatment systems to soil conditions at site; • to evaluate current research relating to onsite sewage treatment; and, • to identify key issues where currently there is a lack of relevant research. These tasks were undertaken with the objective of facilitating the development of performance based planning and management strategies for onsite sewage treatment. The primary focus of this research project has been on septic tanks. By implication, the investigation has been confined to subsurface soil absorption systems. The design and treatment processes taking place within the septic tank chamber itself did not form a part of the investigation. Five broad categories of soil types prevalent in the Brisbane region have been considered in this project. The number of systems investigated was based on the proportionate area of urban development within the Brisbane region located on each of the different soil types. In the initial phase of the investigation, the majority of the systems evaluated were septic tanks. However, a small number of aerobic wastewater treatment systems (AWTS) were also included. The primary aim was to compare the effluent quality of systems employing different generic treatment processes. It is important to note that the number of each different type of system investigated was relatively small. Consequently, this does not permit a statistical analysis to be undertaken of the results obtained for comparing different systems. This is an important issue considering the large number of soil physico-chemical parameters and landscape factors that can influence treatment performance and their wide variability. The report This report is the last in a series of three reports focussing on the performance evaluation of onsite treatment of sewage. The research project was initiated at the request of the Brisbane City Council. The project component discussed in the current report outlines the detailed soil investigations undertaken at a selected number of sites. In the initial field sampling, a number of soil chemical properties were assessed as indicators to investigate the extent of effluent flow and to help understand what soil factors renovate the applied effluent. The soil profile attributes, especially texture, structure and moisture regime were examined more in an engineering sense to determine the effect of movement of water into and through the soil. It is important to note that it is not only the physical characteristics, but also the chemical characteristics of the soil as well as landscape factors play a key role in the effluent renovation process. In order to understand the complex processes taking place in a subsurface effluent disposal area, influential parameters were identified using soil chemical concepts. Accordingly, the primary focus of this final phase of the research project was to identify linkages between various soil chemical parameters and landscape patterns and their contribution to the effluent renovation process. The research outcomes will contribute to the development of robust criteria for evaluating the performance of subsurface effluent disposal systems. The outcomes The key findings from the soil investigations undertaken are: • Effluent renovation is primarily undertaken by a combination of various soil physico-chemical parameters and landscape factors, thereby making the effluent renovation processes strongly site dependent. • Decisions regarding site suitability for effluent disposal should not be based purely in terms of the soil type. A number of other factors such as the site location in the catena, the drainage characteristics and other physical and chemical characteristics, also exert a strong influence on site suitability. • Sites, which are difficult to characterise in terms of suitability for effluent disposal, will require a detailed soil physical and chemical analysis to be undertaken to a minimum depth of at least 1.2 m. • The Ca:Mg ratio and Exchangeable Sodium Percentage are important parameters in soil suitability assessment. A Ca:Mg ratio of less than 0.5 would generally indicate a high ESP. This in turn would mean that Na and possibly Mg are the dominant exchangeable cations, leading to probable clay dispersion. • A Ca:Mg ratio greater than 0.5 would generally indicate a low ESP in the profile, which in turn indicates increased soil stability. • In higher clay percentage soils, low ESP can have a significant effect. • The presence of high exchangeable Na can be counteracted by the presence of swelling clays, and an exchange complex co-dominated by exchangeable Ca and exchangeable Mg. This aids absorption of cations at depth, thereby reducing the likelihood of dispersion. • Salt is continually added to the soil by the effluent and problems may arise if the added salts accumulate to a concentration that is harmful to the soil structure. Under such conditions, good drainage is essential in order to allow continuous movement of water and salt through the profile. Therefore, for a site to be sustainable, it would have a maximum application rate of effluent. This would be dependent on subsurface characteristics and the surface area available for effluent disposal. • The dosing regime for effluent disposal can play a significant role in the prevention of salt accumulation in the case of poorly draining sites. Though intermittent dosing was not considered satisfactory for the removal of the clogging mat layer, it has positive attributes in the context of removal of accumulated salts in the soil.

Enabling access to research data in developing countries : designing a policy and practice framework for Malaysia’s Public Research Universities

Members of the World Trade Organisation (WTO) are obliged to implement the Agreement on Trade-related Intellectual Property Rights 1994 (TRIPS) which establishes minimum standards for the protection and enforcement of intellectual property rights. Almost two decades after TRIPS was adopted at the conclusion of the Uruguay Round of trade negotiations, it is widely accepted that intellectual property systems in developing and least-developed countries must be consistent with, and serve, their development needs and objectives. In adopting the Development Agenda in 2007, the World Intellectual Property Organisation (WIPO) emphasised the importance to developing and least-developed countries of being able to obtain access to knowledge and technology and to participate in collaborations and exchanges with research and scientific institutions in other countries. Access to knowledge, information and technology is crucial if creativity and innovation is to be fostered in developing and least-developed countries. It is particularly important that developing and least-developed countries give effect to their TRIPS obligations by implementing intellectual property systems and adopting intellectual property management practices that enable them to benefit from knowledge flows and support their engagement in international research and science collaborations. However, developing and least-developed countries did not participate in the deliberations leading to the adoption in 2004 by Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) member countries of the Ministerial Declaration on Access to Research Data from Public Funding, nor have they formulated policies on access to publicly funded research outputs such as those developed by the National Institutes of Health in the United States, the United Kingdom Research Councils or the Australian National Health and Medical Research Council. These issues are considered from the viewpoint of Malaysia, a developing country whose economy has grown strongly in recent years. Lacking an established policy covering access to the outputs of publicly funded research, data sharing and licensing practices continue to be fragmented. Obtaining access to research data requires arrangements to be negotiated with individual data owners and custodians. Given the potential for restrictions on access to impact negatively on scientific progress and development in Malaysia, measures are required to ensure that access to knowledge and research results is facilitated. This paper proposes a policy framework for Malaysia‘s public research universities that recognises intellectual property rights while enabling the open access to research data that is essential for innovation and development. It also considers how intellectual property rights in research data can be managed in order to give effect to the policy‘s open access objectives.

The mystery of the U-shaped relationship between happiness and age

In this paper, we address the puzzle of the relationship between age and happiness. Whilst the majority of psychologists have concluded there is not much of a relationship at all, the economic literature has unearthed a possible U-shape relationship with the minimum level of satisfaction occurring in middle age (35–50). In this paper, we look for a U-shape in three panel data sets, the German Socioeconomic Panel (GSOEP), the British Household Panel Survey (BHPS) and the Household Income Labour Dynamics Australia (HILDA). We find that the raw data mainly supports a wave-like shape that only weakly looks U-shaped for the 20–60 age range. That weak U-shape in middle age becomes more pronounced when allowing for socio-economic variables. When we then take account of selection effects via fixed-effects, however, the dominant age-effect in all three panels is a strong happiness increase around the age of 60 followed by a major decline after 75, with the U-shape in middle age disappearing such that there is almost no change in happiness between the age of 20 and 50.

Corneal changes following near work in myopic anisometropia

PURPOSE: To examine the symmetry of corneal changes following near work in the fellow eyes of non-amblyopic myopic anisometropes. METHODS: Thirty-four non-amblyopic myopic anisometropes (minimum 1 D spherical equivalent anisometropia) were recruited. Corneal topography was measured with the Medmont E300 Videokeratoscope before and after a controlled near task. Subjects were positioned to minimise head movements and read continuous text on a computer monitor for 10 minutes at an angle of 25 degrees downward gaze and an accommodation demand of 2.5 D. Measures of palpebral aperture morphology during primary and downward gaze were also obtained using digital photography and analysed with customised software. RESULTS: Significant changes in corneal topography were observed after ten minutes of reading. Localised superior regions of corneal topographical change (a hyperopic shift in corneal power) were typically exhibited in both eyes following the near task. The mean change in the corneal sphero-cylinder was +0.02/-0.11 x 113 and +0.02/-0.06 x 68 for the more and less myopic eyes respectively for a 6 mm corneal diameter. A significantly greater change in corneal astigmatism power vector J0 (a larger increase in against the rule astigmatism) was observed in the more myopic eyes (p < 0.01 for a 6 mm diameter). The more and less myopic eyes exhibited a high degree of interocular symmetry for measures of palpebral aperture morphology during both primary and downward gaze. Changes in corneal power vectors following reading were associated with eyelid position during downward gaze. CONCLUSIONS: Changes in corneal topography observed following a controlled reading task were highly symmetrical between the fellow eyes of myopic anisometropes due to the interocular symmetry of the palpebral aperture. However, the more myopic eye did exhibit a small but significantly greater magnitude of change in corneal astigmatism compared to the less myopic eye following reading. These findings may have implications for understanding the mechanism of development of non-amblyopic myopic anisometropia.

Australian Diabetes Foot Network : management of diabetes-related foot ulceration — a clinical update

Summary Appropriate assessment and management of diabetes-related foot ulcers (DRFUs) is essential to reduce amputation risk. Management requires debridement, wound dressing, pressure off-loading, good glycaemic control and potentially antibiotic therapy and vascular intervention. As a minimum, all DRFUs should be managed by a doctor and a podiatrist and/or wound care nurse. Health professionals unable to provide appropriate care for people with DRFUs should promptly refer individuals to professionals with the requisite knowledge and skills. Indicators for immediate referral to an emergency department or multidisciplinary foot care team (MFCT) include gangrene, limb-threatening ischaemia, deep ulcers (bone, joint or tendon in the wound base), ascending cellulitis, systemic symptoms of infection and abscesses. Referral to an MFCT should occur if there is lack of wound progress after 4 weeks of appropriate treatment.

What are the key conditions associated with lower limb amputations in a major Australian teaching hospital?

Background Lower extremity amputation results in significant global morbidity and mortality. Australia appears to have a paucity of studies investigating lower extremity amputation. The primary aim of this retrospective study was to investigate key conditions associated with lower extremity amputations in an Australian population. Secondary objectives were to determine the influence of age and sex on lower extremity amputations, and the reliability of hospital coded amputations. Methods: Lower extremity amputation cases performed at the Princess Alexandra Hospital (Brisbane, Australia) between July 2006 and June 2007 were identified through the relevant hospital discharge dataset (n = 197). All eligible clinical records were interrogated for age, sex, key condition associated with amputation, amputation site, first ever amputation status and the accuracy of the original hospital coding. Exclusion criteria included records unavailable for audit and cases where the key condition was unable to be determined. Chi-squared, t-tests, ANOVA and post hoc tests were used to determine differences between groups. Kappa statistics were used to measure reliability between coded and audited amputations. A minimum significance level of p < 0.05 was used throughout. Results: One hundred and eighty-six cases were eligible and audited. Overall 69% were male, 56% were first amputations, 54% were major amputations, and mean age was 62 ± 16 years. Key conditions associated included type 2 diabetes (53%), peripheral arterial disease (non-diabetes) (18%), trauma (8%), type 1 diabetes (7%) and malignant tumours (5%). Differences in ages at amputation were associated with trauma 36 ± 10 years, type 1 diabetes 52 ± 12 years and type 2 diabetes 67 ± 10 years (p < 0.01). Reliability of original hospital coding was high with Kappa values over 0.8 for all variables. Conclusions: This study, the first in over 20 years to report on all levels of lower extremity amputations in Australia, found that people undergoing amputation are more likely to be older, male and have diabetes. It is recommended that large prospective studies are implemented and national lower extremity amputation rates are established to address the large preventable burden of lower extremity amputation in Australia.

Is simulation training effective in increasing podiatrists' confidence in foot ulcer management?

Background: Foot ulcers are a frequent reason for diabetes-related hospitalisation. Clinical training is known to have a beneficial impact on foot ulcer outcomes. Clinical training using simulation techniques has rarely been used in the management of diabetes-related foot complications or chronic wounds. Simulation can be defined as a device or environment that attempts to replicate the real world. The few non-web-based foot-related simulation courses have focused solely on training for a single skill or “part task” (for example, practicing ingrown toenail procedures on models). This pilot study aimed to primarily investigate the effect of a training program using multiple methods of simulation on participants’ clinical confidence in the management of foot ulcers. Methods: Sixteen podiatrists participated in a two-day Foot Ulcer Simulation Training (FUST) course. The course included pre-requisite web-based learning modules, practicing individual foot ulcer management part tasks (for example, debriding a model foot ulcer), and participating in replicated clinical consultation scenarios (for example, treating a standardised patient (actor) with a model foot ulcer). The primary outcome measure of the course was participants’ pre- and post completion of confidence surveys, using a five-point Likert scale (1 = Unacceptable-5 = Proficient). Participants’ knowledge, satisfaction and their perception of the relevance and fidelity (realism) of a range of course elements were also investigated. Parametric statistics were used to analyse the data. Pearson’s r was used for correlation, ANOVA for testing the differences between groups, and a paired-sample t-test to determine the significance between pre- and post-workshop scores. A minimum significance level of p < 0.05 was used. Results: An overall 42% improvement in clinical confidence was observed following completion of FUST (mean scores 3.10 compared to 4.40, p < 0.05). The lack of an overall significant change in knowledge scores reflected the participant populations’ high baseline knowledge and pre-requisite completion of web-based modules. Satisfaction, relevance and fidelity of all course elements were rated highly. Conclusions: This pilot study suggests simulation training programs can improve participants’ clinical confidence in the management of foot ulcers. The approach has the potential to enhance clinical training in diabetes-related foot complications and chronic wounds in general.

Visual motion perception predicts driving hazard perception ability

PURPOSE: To examine the basis of previous findings of an association between indices of driving safety and visual motion sensitivity and to examine whether this association could be explained by low-level changes in visual function. METHODS: 36 visually normal participants (aged 19 – 80 years), completed a battery of standard vision tests including visual acuity, contrast sensitivity and automated visual fields. and two tests of motion perception including sensitivity for movement of a drifting Gabor stimulus, and sensitivity for displacement in a random-dot kinematogram (Dmin). Participants also completed a hazard perception test (HPT) which measured participants’ response times to hazards embedded in video recordings of real world driving which has been shown to be linked to crash risk. RESULTS: Dmin for the random-dot stimulus ranged from -0.88 to -0.12 log minutes of arc, and the minimum drift rate for the Gabor stimulus ranged from 0.01 to 0.35 cycles per second. Both measures of motion sensitivity significantly predicted response times on the HPT. In addition, while the relationship involving the HPT and motion sensitivity for the random-dot kinematogram was partially explained by the other visual function measures, the relationship with sensitivity for detection of the drifting Gabor stimulus remained significant even after controlling for these variables. CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that motion perception plays an important role in the visual perception of driving-relevant hazards independent of other areas of visual function and should be further explored as a predictive test of driving safety. Future research should explore the causes of reduced motion perception in order to develop better interventions to improve road safety.

Quinolinium 8-hydroxy-7-iodoquinoline-5-sulfonate 0.8-hydrate

In the structure of the hydrated quinolinium salt of ferron (8-hydroxy-7-iodoquinoline-5-sulfonic acid), C9H7N+ C9H5INO4S- . 0.8H2O, the quinolinium cation is fully disordered over two sites (occupancy factors 0.63 and 0.37) lying essentially within a common plane and with the ferron anions form pi-pi-associated stacks down the b axis (minimum ring centroid separation = 3.462(6)Ang.]. The cations and anions are linked into chains extending along c through hydroxyl O-H...O and quinolinium N-H...O hydrogen bonds to sulfonate O-atom acceptors which are also involved in water O-H...O hydrogen-bonding interactions down b giving a two-dimensional network structure.

Refugees : the Millenium Development Goals' overlooked priority group

The Millennium Development Goals (MDGs) apply to the world’s 43 million refugees and forcibly displaced. While States have an obligation to meet minimum human rights levels for all persons including 'non-citizens', UNHCR must ensure countries adopting MDG targets report on the progress of their refugee populations. If we are to make significant change within the MDG time-frame, the health and human rights needs of refugees and the displaced must be urgently integrated into the development policy agendas of sovereign States, and be at the fore of the international community’s attention.

One-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission : a time-series analysis in the rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China

Background: Malaria is a major public health burden in the tropics with the potential to significantly increase in response to climate change. Analyses of data from the recent past can elucidate how short-term variations in weather factors affect malaria transmission. This study explored the impact of climate variability on the transmission of malaria in the tropical rain forest area of Mengla County, south-west China. Methods: Ecological time-series analysis was performed on data collected between 1971 and 1999. Auto-regressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were used to evaluate the relationship between weather factors and malaria incidence. Results: At the time scale of months, the predictors for malaria incidence included: minimum temperature, maximum temperature, and fog day frequency. The effect of minimum temperature on malaria incidence was greater in the cool months than in the hot months. The fog day frequency in October had a positive effect on malaria incidence in May of the following year. At the time scale of years, the annual fog day frequency was the only weather predictor of the annual incidence of malaria. Conclusion: Fog day frequency was for the first time found to be a predictor of malaria incidence in a rain forest area. The one-year delayed effect of fog on malaria transmission may involve providing water input and maintaining aquatic breeding sites for mosquitoes in vulnerable times when there is little rainfall in the 6-month dry seasons. These findings should be considered in the prediction of future patterns of malaria for similar tropical rain forest areas worldwide.

Identification of long intergenic region sequences involved in maize streak virus replication

The main cis-acting control regions for replication of the single-stranded DNA genome of maize streak virus (MSV) are believed to reside within an approximately 310 nt long intergenic region (LIR). However, neither the minimum LIR sequence required nor the sequence determinants of replication specificity have been determined experimentally. There are iterated sequences, or iterons, both within the conserved inverted-repeat sequences with the potential to form a stem-loop structure at the origin of virion-strand replication, and upstream of the rep gene TATA box (the rep-proximal iteron or RPI). Based on experimental analyses of similar iterons in viruses from other geminivirus genera and their proximity to known Rep-binding sites in the distantly related mastrevirus wheat dwarf virus, it has been hypothesized that the iterons may be Rep-binding and/or -recognition sequences. Here, a series of LIR deletion mutants was used to define the upper bounds of the LIR sequence required for replication. After identifying MSV strains and distinct mastreviruses with incompatible replication-specificity determinants (RSDs), LIR chimaeras were used to map the primary MSV RSD to a 67 nt sequence containing the RPI. Although the results generally support the prevailing hypothesis that MSV iterons are functional analogues of those found in other geminivirus genera, it is demonstrated that neither the inverted-repeat nor RPI sequences are absolute determinants of replication specificity. Moreover, widely divergent mastreviruses can trans-replicate one another. These results also suggest that sequences in the 67 nt region surrounding the RPI interact in a sequence-specific manner with those of the inverted repeat.

A rep-based hairpin inhibits replication of diverse maize streak virus isolates in a transient assay

Centre for High-Performance Computing, Rosebank, Cape Town, South Africa Maize streak disease, caused by the A strain of the African endemic geminivirus, maize streak mastrevirus (MSV-A), threatens the food security and livelihoods of subsistence farmers throughout sub-Saharan Africa. Using a well-established transient expression assay, this study investigated the potential of a spliceable-intron hairpin RNA (hpRNA) approach to interfere with MSV replication. Two strategies were explored: (i) an inverted repeat of a 662 bp region of the MSV replication-associated protein gene (rep), which is essential for virus replication and is therefore a good target for post-transcriptional gene silencing; and (ii) an inverted repeat of the viral long intergenic region (LIR), considered for its potential to trigger transcriptional silencing of the viral promoter region. After co-bombardment of cultured maize cells with each construct and an infectious partial dimer of the cognate virus genome (MSV-Kom), followed by viral replicativeform-specific PCR, it was clear that, whilst the hairpin rep construct (pHPrepDI662) completely inhibited MSV replication, the LIR hairpin construct was ineffective in this regard. In addition, pHPrepDI662 inhibited or reduced replication of six MSV-A genotypes representing the entire breadth of known MSV-A diversity. Further investigation by real-time PCR revealed that the pHPrepDI662 inverted repeat was 22-fold more effective at reducing virus replication than a construct containing the sense copy, whilst the antisense copy had no effect on replication when compared with the wild type. This is the first indication that an hpRNA strategy targeting MSV rep has the potential to protect transgenic. © 2011 SGM.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.