An approximate Bayesian computation approach for estimating parameters of complex environmental processes in a cellular automata

Modelling an environmental process involves creating a model structure and parameterising the model with appropriate values to accurately represent the process. Determining accurate parameter values for environmental systems can be challenging. Existing methods for parameter estimation typically make assumptions regarding the form of the Likelihood, and will often ignore any uncertainty around estimated values. This can be problematic, however, particularly in complex problems where Likelihoods may be intractable. In this paper we demonstrate an Approximate Bayesian Computational method for the estimation of parameters of a stochastic CA. We use as an example a CA constructed to simulate a range expansion such as might occur after a biological invasion, making parameter estimates using only count data such as could be gathered from field observations. We demonstrate ABC is a highly useful method for parameter estimation, with accurate estimates of parameters that are important for the management of invasive species such as the intrinsic rate of increase and the point in a landscape where a species has invaded. We also show that the method is capable of estimating the probability of long distance dispersal, a characteristic of biological invasions that is very influential in determining spread rates but has until now proved difficult to estimate accurately.

Support for energy-oriented design in the Australian context

There is a need for decision support tools that integrate energy simulation into early design in the context of Australian practice. Despite the proliferation of simulation programs in the last decade, there are no ready-to-use applications that cater specifically for the Australian climate and regulations. Furthermore, the majority of existing tools focus on achieving interaction with the design domain through model-based interoperability, and largely overlook the issue of process integration. This paper proposes an energy-oriented design environment that both accommodates the Australian context and provides interactive and iterative information exchanges that facilitate feedback between domains. It then presents the structure for DEEPA, an openly customisable system that couples parametric modelling and energy simulation software as a means of developing a decision support tool to allow designers to rapidly and flexibly assess the performance of early design alternatives. Finally, it discusses the benefits of developing a dynamic and concurrent performance evaluation process that parallels the characteristics and relationships of the design process.

Closing the loop of design and analysis : Parametric modelling tools for early decision support

There is a growing need for parametric design software that communicates building performance feedback in early architectural exploration to support decision-making. This paper examines how the circuit of design and analysis process can be closed to provide active and concurrent feedback between architecture and services engineering domains. It presents the structure for an openly customisable design system that couples parametric modelling and energy analysis software to allow designers to assess the performance of early design iterations quickly. Finally, it discusses how user interactions with the system foster information exchanges that facilitate the sharing of design intelligence across disciplines.

Energy-oriented design tools for collaboration in the cloud

Emerging from the challenge to reduce energy consumption in buildings is the need for energy simulation to be used more effectively to support integrated decision making in early design. As a critical response to a Green Star case study, we present DEEPA, a parametric modeling framework that enables architects and engineers to work at the same semantic level to generate shared models for energy simulation. A cloud-based toolkit provides web and data services for parametric design software that automate the process of simulating and tracking design alternatives, by linking building geometry more directly to analysis inputs. Data, semantics, models and simulation results can be shared on the fly. This allows the complex relationships between architecture, building services and energy consumption to be explored in an integrated manner, and decisions to be made collaboratively.

Reliability of ultrasonographic measurement of the architecture of the vastus lateralis and gastrocnemius medialis muscles in older adults

Objective To determine the test-retest reliability of measurements of thickness, fascicle length (Lf) and pennation angle (θ) of the vastus lateralis (VL) and gastrocnemius medialis (GM) muscles in older adults. Participants Twenty-one healthy older adults (11 men and ten women; average age 68·1 ± 5·2 years) participated in this study. Methods Ultrasound images (probe frequency 10 MHz) of the VL at two sites (VL site 1 and 2) were obtained with participants seated with knee at 90º flexion. For GM measures, participants lay prone with ankle fixed at 15º dorsiflexion. Measures were taken on two separate occasions, 7 days apart (T1 and T2). Results The ICCs (95% CI) were: VL site 1 thickness = 0·96(0·90–0·98); VL site 2 thickness = 0·96(0·90–0·98), VL θ = 0·87(0·68–0·95), VL Lf = 0·80(0·50–0·92), GM thickness = 0·97(0·92–0·99), GM θ = 0·85(0·62–0·94) and GM Lf =0·90(0·75–0·96). The 95% ratio limits of agreement (LOAs) for all measures, calculated by multiplying the standard deviation of the ratio of the results between T1 and T2 by 1·96, ranged from 10·59 to 38·01%. Conclusion The ability of these tests to determine a real change in VL and GM muscle architecture is good on a group level but problematic on an individual level as the relatively large 95% ratio LOAs in the current study may encompass the changes in architecture observed in other training studies. Therefore, the current findings suggest that B-mode ultrasonography can be used with confidence by researchers when investigating changes in muscle architecture in groups of older adults, but its use is limited in showing changes in individuals over time.

Toward a shared understanding of competency in programming : an invitation to the BABELnot Project

The ICT degrees in most Australian universities have a sequence of up to three programming subjects, or units. BABELnot is an ALTC-funded project that will document the academic standards associated with those three subjects in the six participating universities and, if possible, at other universities. This will necessitate the development of a rich framework for describing the learning goals associated with programming. It will also be necessary to benchmark exam questions that are mapped onto this framework. As part of the project, workshops are planned for ACE 2012, ICER 2012 and ACE 2013, to elicit feedback from the broader Australasian computing education community, and to disseminate the project’s findings. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the project to that broader Australasian computing education community and to invite their active participation.

Overview of the INEX 2009 Ad Hoc Track

This paper gives an overview of the INEX 2009 Ad Hoc Track. The main goals of the Ad Hoc Track were three-fold. The first goal was to investigate the impact of the collection scale and markup, by using a new collection that is again based on a the Wikipedia but is over 4 times larger, with longer articles and additional semantic annotations. For this reason the Ad Hoc track tasks stayed unchanged, and the Thorough Task of INEX 2002–2006 returns. The second goal was to study the impact of more verbose queries on retrieval effectiveness, by using the available markup as structural constraints—now using both the Wikipedia’s layout-based markup, as well as the enriched semantic markup—and by the use of phrases. The third goal was to compare different result granularities by allowing systems to retrieve XML elements, ranges of XML elements, or arbitrary passages of text. This investigates the value of the internal document structure (as provided by the XML mark-up) for retrieving relevant information. The INEX 2009 Ad Hoc Track featured four tasks: For the Thorough Task a ranked-list of results (elements or passages) by estimated relevance was needed. For the Focused Task a ranked-list of non-overlapping results (elements or passages) was needed. For the Relevant in Context Task non-overlapping results (elements or passages) were returned grouped by the article from which they came. For the Best in Context Task a single starting point (element start tag or passage start) for each article was needed. We discuss the setup of the track, and the results for the four tasks.

Enterprise architecture and the integration of service-oriented architecture

In recent years, enterprise architecture (EA) has captured a growing attention as a means to systematically consolidate and interrelate diverse business and IT artefacts in order to provide holistic decision support. The recent popularity of a service-orientation has added “service “and related constructs as a new element that requires consideration within an Enterprise Architecture. Since the emergence of the Service-Oriented Architecture (SOA), many attempts have been made to incorporate SOA artefacts in existing EA frameworks. Yet, the approaches taken to achieve this goal differ substantially for the most commonly used EA frameworks to date. SOA in the context of enterprise architecture is one of the future research challenges. Several authors argue that further research is needed in order to understand how SOA impacts prior enterprise architecture frameworks. This study explores SOA integration within EA, identifies SOA integration approaches within EA and identifies factors that impact SOA integration within Enterprise Architecture.

A natural model for architecture

In John Frazer's seminal book An Evolutionary Architecture (1995), from which this essay is extracted, a fundamental approach is established for have natural systems can unfold mechanisms for negotiating the complex design space inherent in architectural systems. In this essay, which forms a critical part of the book, Frazer draws both correlations and distinctions from natural processes as emulated in design processes and form as active manifestations within natural systems. Form is seen as an evolving agent generated via the rules of descriptive genetic coding, functioning as a part of a metabolic environment. Frazer's process-model establishes the realm in which computation must manoeuvre to produce a valid solution space, including the operations of self-organisation, complexity and emergent behaviour. Addressing design as an authored practice, he extends the transference of 'creativity' from the explicit impression into form, to the investment of though, organisation and strategy in the computational processes which produce form. Frazer's text concentrates astutely on the practising of the evolutionary paradigm, the output of which postulates an architecture born of the relationships to dynamic environmental and socio-economic contexts, and realised through morphogenetic materialisation.

Process mining manifesto

Process mining techniques are able to extract knowledge from event logs commonly available in today’s information systems. These techniques provide new means to discover, monitor, and improve processes in a variety of application domains. There are two main drivers for the growing interest in process mining. On the one hand, more and more events are being recorded, thus, providing detailed information about the history of processes. On the other hand, there is a need to improve and support business processes in competitive and rapidly changing environments. This manifesto is created by the IEEE Task Force on Process Mining and aims to promote the topic of process mining. Moreover, by defining a set of guiding principles and listing important challenges, this manifesto hopes to serve as a guide for software developers, scientists, consultants, business managers, and end-users. The goal is to increase the maturity of process mining as a new tool to improve the (re)design, control, and support of operational business processes.

Building information modeling in the Australian architecture engineering and construction industry

Building Information Modeling (BIM) is a modern approach to the design, documentation, delivery, and life cycle management of buildings through the use of project information databases coupled with object-based parametric modeling. BIM has the potential to revolutionize the Architecture, Engineering and Construction (AEC) industry in terms of the positive impact it may have on information flows, working relationships between project participants from different disciplines and the resulting benefits it may achieve through improvements to conventional methods. This chapter reviews the development of BIM, the extent to which BIM has been implemented in Australia, and the factors which have affected the up-take of BIM. More specifically, the objectives of this chapter are to investigate the adoption of BIM in the Australian AEC industry and factors that contribute towards the uptake (or non uptake) of BIM. These objectives are met by a review of the related literature in the first instance, followed by the presentation of the results of a 2007 postal questionnaire survey and telephone interviews of a random sample of professionals in the Australian AEC industry. The responses suggest that less than 25 percent of the sample had been involved in BIM – rather less than might be expected from reading the literature. Also, of those who have been involved with BIM, there has been very little interdisciplinary collaboration. The main barriers impeding the implementation of BIM widely across the Australian AEC industry are also identified. These were found to be primarily a lack of BIM expertise, lack of awareness and resistance to change. The benefits experienced as a result of using BIM are also discussed. These include improved design consistency, better coordination, cost savings, higher quality work, greater productivity and increased speed of delivery. In terms of conclusion, some suggestions are made concerning the underlying practical reasons for the slow up-take of BIM and the successes for those early adopters. Prospects for future improvement are discussed and proposals are also made for a large scale worldwide comparative study covering industry-wide participants

Free software as a democratic principle

Software forms an important part of the interface between citizens and their government. An increasing amount of government functions are being performed, controlled, or delivered electronically. This software, like all language, is never value-neutral, but must, to some extent, reflect the values of the coder and proprietor. The move that many governments are making towards e-governance, and the increasing reliance that is being placed upon software in government, necessitates a rethinking of the relationships of power and control that are embodied in software.

Thresholds for error probability measures of business process models

The quality of conceptual business process models is highly relevant for the design of corresponding information systems. In particular, a precise measurement of model characteristics can be beneficial from a business perspective, helping to save costs thanks to early error detection. This is just as true from a software engineering point of view. In this latter case, models facilitate stakeholder communication and software system design. Research has investigated several proposals as regards measures for business process models, from a rather correlational perspective. This is helpful for understanding, for example size and complexity as general driving forces of error probability. Yet, design decisions usually have to build on thresholds, which can reliably indicate that a certain counter-action has to be taken. This cannot be achieved only by providing measures; it requires a systematic identification of effective and meaningful thresholds. In this paper, we derive thresholds for a set of structural measures for predicting errors in conceptual process models. To this end, we use a collection of 2,000 business process models from practice as a means of determining thresholds, applying an adaptation of the ROC curves method. Furthermore, an extensive validation of the derived thresholds was conducted by using 429 EPC models from an Australian financial institution. Finally, significant thresholds were adapted to refine existing modeling guidelines in a quantitative way.

Is anybody there? Bootstrapping attendance with engagement

The report card for the introductory programming unit at our university has historically been unremarkable in terms of attendance rates, student success rates and student retention in both the unit and the degree course. After a course restructure recently involving a fresh approach to introducing programming, we reported a high retention in the unit, with consistently high attendance and a very low failure rate. Following those encouraging results, we collected student attendance data for several semesters and compared attendance rates to student results. We have found that interesting workshop material which directly relates to course-relevant assessment items and therefore drives the learning, in an engaging collaborative learning environment has improved attendance to an extraordinary extent, with student failure rates plummeting to the lowest in recorded history at our university.