Development and validation of a multilevel model for predicting workload under routine and nonroutine conditions in an air traffic management center

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a model capable of predicting variability in the mental workload experienced by frontline operators under routine and nonroutine conditions. Background: Excess workload is a risk that needs to be managed in safety-critical industries. Predictive models are needed to manage this risk effectively yet are difficult to develop. Much of the difficulty stems from the fact that workload prediction is a multilevel problem. Method: A multilevel workload model was developed in Study 1 with data collected from an en route air traffic management center. Dynamic density metrics were used to predict variability in workload within and between work units while controlling for variability among raters. The model was cross-validated in Studies 2 and 3 with the use of a high-fidelity simulator. Results: Reported workload generally remained within the bounds of the 90% prediction interval in Studies 2 and 3. Workload crossed the upper bound of the prediction interval only under nonroutine conditions. Qualitative analyses suggest that nonroutine events caused workload to cross the upper bound of the prediction interval because the controllers could not manage their workload strategically. Conclusion: The model performed well under both routine and nonroutine conditions and over different patterns of workload variation. Application: Workload prediction models can be used to support both strategic and tactical workload management. Strategic uses include the analysis of historical and projected workflows and the assessment of staffing needs. Tactical uses include the dynamic reallocation of resources to meet changes in demand.

A quantitative metric to identify critical elements within seafood supply networks

A theoretical basis is required for comparing key features and critical elements in wild fisheries and aquaculture supply chains under a changing climate. Here we develop a new quantitative metric that is analogous to indices used to analyse food-webs and identify key species. The Supply Chain Index (SCI) identifies critical elements as those elements with large throughput rates, as well as greater connectivity. The sum of the scores for a supply chain provides a single metric that roughly captures both the resilience and connectedness of a supply chain. Standardised scores can facilitate cross-comparisons both under current conditions as well as under a changing climate. Identification of key elements along the supply chain may assist in informing adaptation strategies to reduce anticipated future risks posed by climate change. The SCI also provides information on the relative stability of different supply chains based on whether there is a fairly even spread in the individual scores of the top few key elements, compared with a more critical dependence on a few key individual supply chain elements. We use as a case study the Australian southern rock lobster Jasus edwardsii fishery, which is challenged by a number of climate change drivers such as impacts on recruitment and growth due to changes in large-scale and local oceanographic features. The SCI identifies airports, processors and Chinese consumers as the key elements in the lobster supply chain that merit attention to enhance stability and potentially enable growth. We also apply the index to an additional four real-world Australian commercial fishery and two aquaculture industry supply chains to highlight the utility of a systematic method for describing supply chains. Overall, our simple methodological approach to empirically-based supply chain research provides an objective method for comparing the resilience of supply chains and highlighting components that may be critical.

Estimating the potential impact of entry fees for marine parks on dive tourism in South East Asia

Marine reserves are increasingly being established as a mechanism to protect marine biodiversity and sensitive habitats. As well as providing conservation benefits, marine reserves provide benefits to recreational scuba divers who dive within the reserve, as well as to recreational and commercial fishers outside the reserve through spill-over effects. To ensure benefits are being realised, management of marine reserves requires ongoing monitoring and surveillance. These are not costless, and many marine reserve managers impose an entry fee. In some countries, dive tourism is major income source to coastal industries, and a concern is that high entry fees may dissuade divers. In this paper, the price elasticity of demand for dive tourism in three countries in South East Asia – Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia – is estimated using a travel-cost model. From the model, the total non-market use value associated with diving in the area is estimated to be in the order of US$4.5 billion a year. The price elasticity of demand in the region is highly inelastic, such that increasing the cost of diving through a management levy would have little impact on total diver numbers.

Identification of a novel fusion transcript between human relaxin-1 (RLN1) and human relaxin-2 (RLN2) in prostate cancer

Simultaneous expression of highly homologous RLN1 and RLN2 genes in prostate impairs their accurate delineation. We used PacBio SMRT sequencing and RNA-Seq in LNCaP cells in order to dissect the expression of RLN1 and RLN2 variants. We identified a novel fusion transcript comprising the RLN1 and RLN2 genes and found evidence of its expression in the normal and prostate cancer tissues. The RLN1-RLN2 fusion putatively encodes RLN2 isoform with the deleted secretory signal peptide. The identification of the fusion transcript provided information to determine unique RLN1-RLN2 fusion and RLN1 regions. The RLN1-RLN2 fusion was co-expressed with RLN1 in LNCaP cells, but the two gene products were inversely regulated by androgens. We showed that RLN1 is underrepresented in common PCa cell lines in comparison to normal and PCa tissue. The current study brings a highly relevant update to the relaxin field, and will encourage further studies of RLN1 and RLN2 in PCa and broader.

The atmospheric extinction of light

An experiment is described that enables students to understand the properties of atmospheric extinction due to Rayleigh scattering. The experiment requires the use of red, green and blue lasers attached to a traveling microscope or similar device. The laser beams are passed through an artificial atmosphere, made from milky water, at varying depths, before impinging on either a light meter or a photodiode integral to a Picotech Dr. DAQ ADC. A plot of measured spectral intensity verses depth reveals the contribution Rayleigh scattering has to the extinction coefficient. For the experiment with the light meter, the extinction coefficient for red, green and blue light in the milky sample of water were 0.27, 0.36 and 0.47 cm-1 respectively and 0.032, 0.037 and 0.092 cm-1 for the Picotech Dr. DAQ ADC.

Mitigating undesirable impacts in the marine environment: A review of market-based management measures

Internationally, marine biodiversity conservation objectives are having an increasing influence on the management of commercial fisheries. While this is largely being implemented through Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) other management measures, such as market based instruments (MBIs), have proved to be effective at managing target species catch in fisheries and reducing environmental impacts in industries such as mining and tourism. Market-based management measures aim to mitigate the impacts of activities by better aligning the incentives their participants face with the objectives of management, changing their behavior as a consequence. In this paper, we review the potential of MBIs as management tools to mitigate undesirable environmental impacts associated with commercial fishing. Where they exist, examples of previous applications are described and the factors that influence their applicability and effectiveness are discussed. Several fishing methods and impacts are considered and suggest that whilst no single approach is most appropriate in all circumstances either replacing or complementing existing management arrangements with MBIs has the potential to improve environmental performance. This has a number of implications. From the environmental perspective they should enable levels of undesirable impacts such as damage to sensitive habitat or the bycatch of protected species of turtles, marine mammals, and seabirds to be reduced. The increased flexibility MBIs allow industry when developing solutions also has the potential to reduce costs to both the industry and managers, improving the cost-effectiveness of regulation as a result. Further, in the increasingly relevant case of MPAs the need for publicly funded compensation, often paid to industry when vessels are excluded from grounds, may also be significantly reduced if improved environmental performance makes it possible for some industry members to continue operating.

Indigenous legal education at UNSW: A work in progress

Since the 1970s Australian law schools have provided alternative entry routes and, since the 1980s, pre-law programs and bridging programs. On-going support, once Indigenous students reach university law schools, has been an issue that has not been formally or appropriately addressed in most university law schools. In this way Indigenous students’ chances of entry are disguised as chances of success. Thus once Indigenous students start their law school studies, they are often expected to perform on a level playing field – their success or failure then depends on ‘gifts, merits or skills’ which are culturally appropriate for law school. This attitude fails to recognise the privilege which allows the development of such gifts, merits or skills...

Economic analyses and policy implications for microalgae biofuels in Australia

The benefits of microalgae biofuels over first and second generation counterparts suggest it has potential as a major biofuel feedstock in Australia. However, the high costs of cultivation and processing has been a major drawback for investors and policymakers. This presentation outlines the economic potential for microalgae biofuels: firstly, through production of microalgae co-products (e.g feed and fertiliser); and secondly, deriving what consumers are willing to pay for microalgae biofuels based on external benefits. These findings will assist decision-makers in both private and public sectors and inform policy development with respect to microalgae as a feedstock for biofuels and other products. This study adds an economics perspective to the current technical literature which has been dominated by biochemical, engineering and financial valuation studies.

Estimating cell diffusivity and cell proliferation rate by interpreting IncuCyte ZOOM™ assay data using the Fisher-Kolmogorov model

Background: Standard methods for quantifying IncuCyte ZOOM™ assays involve measurements that quantify how rapidly the initially-vacant area becomes re-colonised with cells as a function of time. Unfortunately, these measurements give no insight into the details of the cellular-level mechanisms acting to close the initially-vacant area. We provide an alternative method enabling us to quantify the role of cell motility and cell proliferation separately. To achieve this we calibrate standard data available from IncuCyte ZOOM™ images to the solution of the Fisher-Kolmogorov model. Results: The Fisher-Kolmogorov model is a reaction-diffusion equation that has been used to describe collective cell spreading driven by cell migration, characterised by a cell diffusivity, D, and carrying capacity limited proliferation with proliferation rate, λ, and carrying capacity density, K. By analysing temporal changes in cell density in several subregions located well-behind the initial position of the leading edge we estimate λ and K. Given these estimates, we then apply automatic leading edge detection algorithms to the images produced by the IncuCyte ZOOM™ assay and match this data with a numerical solution of the Fisher-Kolmogorov equation to provide an estimate of D. We demonstrate this method by applying it to interpret a suite of IncuCyte ZOOM™ assays using PC-3 prostate cancer cells and obtain estimates of D, λ and K. Comparing estimates of D, λ and K for a control assay with estimates of D, λ and K for assays where epidermal growth factor (EGF) is applied in varying concentrations confirms that EGF enhances the rate of scratch closure and that this stimulation is driven by an increase in D and λ, whereas K is relatively unaffected by EGF. Conclusions: Our approach for estimating D, λ and K from an IncuCyte ZOOM™ assay provides more detail about cellular-level behaviour than standard methods for analysing these assays. In particular, our approach can be used to quantify the balance of cell migration and cell proliferation and, as we demonstrate, allow us to quantify how the addition of growth factors affects these processes individually.

Autonomous UAVs wildlife detection using thermal imaging, predictive navigation and computer vision

There is an increased interest on the use of Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for wildlife and feral animal monitoring around the world. This paper describes a novel system which uses a predictive dynamic application that places the UAV ahead of a user, with a low cost thermal camera, a small onboard computer that identifies heat signatures of a target animal from a predetermined altitude and transmits that target’s GPS coordinates. A map is generated and various data sets and graphs are displayed using a GUI designed for easy use. The paper describes the hardware and software architecture and the probabilistic model for downward facing camera for the detection of an animal. Behavioral dynamics of target movement for the design of a Kalman filter and Markov model based prediction algorithm are used to place the UAV ahead of the user. Geometrical concepts and Haversine formula are applied to the maximum likelihood case in order to make a prediction regarding a future state of the user, thus delivering a new way point for autonomous navigation. Results show that the system is capable of autonomously locating animals from a predetermined height and generate a map showing the location of the animals ahead of the user.

Information preferences for the evaluation of coastal development impacts on ecosystem services: A multi-criteria assessment in the Australian context

Ecosystem based management requires the integration of various types of assessment indicators. Understanding stakeholders' information preferences is important, in selecting those indicators that best support management and policy. Both the preferences of decision-makers and the general public may matter, in democratic participatory management institutions. This paper presents a multi-criteria analysis aimed at quantifying the relative importance to these groups of economic, ecological and socio-economic indicators usually considered when managing ecosystem services in a coastal development context. The Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is applied within two nationwide surveys in Australia, and preferences of both the general public and decision-makers for these indicators are elicited and compared. Results show that, on average across both groups, the priority in assessing a generic coastal development project is for the ecological assessment of its impacts on marine biodiversity. Ecological assessment indicators are globally preferred to both economic and socio-economic indicators regardless of the nature of the impacts studied. These results are observed for a significantly larger proportion of decision-maker than general public respondents, questioning the extent to which the general public's preferences are well reflected in decision-making processes.

Australian feature films and distribution: Industry or cottage industry?

Feature films remain critical flagships to any national film industry. Australian feature films can be highly commercial endeavours that also perform symbolic functions by embodying the national imaginary in big screen based sound and imagery. They conduct a dialogue with domestic audiences as well as showcase key aspects of Australia in the global film festival circuit. As the pre-eminent filmmaking form, feature films also serve as important launchpads for the careers of many Australian writers, directors, actors and technical crew. In the wake of over a decade of diminished share of local box office obtained by Australian feature films, Australian Feature Films and Distribution: Industry or cottage industry, examines issues in the production sector affecting the performance of Australian feature films and some responses by the central funding and support screen agency, Screen Australia.

Evaluation of k-epsilon and RNG turbulence models for confined swirling and non-swirling flow

In a very recent study [1] the Renormalisation Group (RNG) turbulence model was used to obtain flow predictions in a strongly swirling quarl burner, and was found to perform well in predicting certain features that are not well captured using less sophisticated models of turbulence. The implication is that the RNG approach should provide an economical and reliable tool for the prediction of swirling flows in combustor and furnace geometries commonly encountered in technological applications. To test this hypothesis the present work considers flow in a model furnace for which experimental data is available [2]. The essential features of the flow which differentiate it from the previous study [1] are that the annular air jet entry is relatively narrow and the base wall of the cylindrical furnace is at 90 degrees to the inlet pipe. For swirl numbers of order 1 the resulting flow is highly complex with significant inner and outer recirculation regions. The RNG and standard k-epsilon models are used to model the flow for both swirling and non-swirling entry jets and the results compared with experimental data [2]. Near wall viscous effects are accounted for in both models via the standard wall function formulation [3]. For the RNG model, additional computations with grid placement extending well inside the near wall viscous-affected sublayer are performed in order to assess the low Reynolds number capabilities of the model.

Computation of confined swirling flow using RNG and k-epsilon turbulence models

In this work we numerically model isothermal turbulent swirling flow in a cylindrical burner. Three versions of the RNG k-epsilon model are assessed against performance of the standard k-epsilon model. Sensitivity of numerical predictions to grid refinement, differing convective differencing schemes and choice of (unknown) inlet dissipation rate, were closely scrutinised to ensure accuracy. Particular attention is paid to modelling the inlet conditions to within the range of uncertainty of the experimental data, as model predictions proved to be significantly sensitive to relatively small changes in upstream flow conditions. We also examine the characteristics of the swirl--induced recirculation zone predicted by the models over an extended range of inlet conditions. Our main findings are: - (i) the standard k-epsilon model performed best compared with experiment; - (ii) no one inlet specification can simultaneously optimize the performance of the models considered; - (iii) the RNG models predict both single-cell and double-cell IRZ characteristics, the latter both with and without additional internal stagnation points. The first finding indicates that the examined RNG modifications to the standard k-e model do not result in an improved eddy viscosity based model for the prediction of swirl flows. The second finding suggests that tuning established models for optimal performance in swirl flows a priori is not straightforward. The third finding indicates that the RNG based models exhibit a greater variety of structural behaviour, despite being of the same level of complexity as the standard k-e model. The plausibility of the predicted IRZ features are discussed in terms of known vortex breakdown phenomena.

Computation of turbulent flow in an IFRF quarl burner

A computational model for isothermal axisymmetric turbulent flow in a quarl burner is set up using the CFD package FLUENT, and numerical solutions obtained from the model are compared with available experimental data. A standard k-e model and and two versions of the RNG k-e model are used to model the turbulence. One of the aims of the computational study is to investigate whether the RNG based k-e turbulence models are capable of yielding improved flow predictions compared with the standard k-e turbulence model. A difficulty is that the flow considered here features a confined vortex breakdown which can be highly sensitive to flow behaviour both upstream and downstream of the breakdown zone. Nevertheless, the relatively simple confining geometry allows us to undertake a systematic study so that both grid-independent and domain-independent results can be reported. The systematic study includes a detailed investigation of the effects of upstream and downstream conditions on the predictions, in addition to grid refinement and other tests to ensure that numerical error is not significant. Another important aim is to determine to what extent the turbulence model predictions can provide us with new insights into the physics of confined vortex breakdown flows. To this end, the computations are discussed in detail with reference to known vortex breakdown phenomena and existing theories. A major conclusion is that one of the RNG k-e models investigated here is able to correctly capture the complex forward flow region inside the recirculating breakdown zone. This apparently pathological result is in stark contrast to the findings of previous studies, most of which have concluded that either algebraic or differential Reynolds stress modelling is needed to correctly predict the observed flow features. Arguments are given as to why an isotropic eddy-viscosity turbulence model may well be able to capture the complex flow structure within the recirculating zone for this flow setup. With regard to the flow physics, a major finding is that the results obtained here are more consistent with the view that confined vortex breakdown is a type of axisymmetric boundary layer separation, rather than a manifestation of a subcritical flow state.