Methods for constructing uncertainty intervals for queries of Bayesian nets

In this paper the issue of finding uncertainty intervals for queries in a Bayesian Network is reconsidered. The investigation focuses on Bayesian Nets with discrete nodes and finite populations. An earlier asymptotic approach is compared with a simulation-based approach, together with further alternatives, one based on a single sample of the Bayesian Net of a particular finite population size, and another which uses expected population sizes together with exact probabilities. We conclude that a query of a Bayesian Net should be expressed as a probability embedded in an uncertainty interval. Based on an investigation of two Bayesian Net structures, the preferred method is the simulation method. However, both the single sample method and the expected sample size methods may be useful and are simpler to compute. Any method at all is more useful than none, when assessing a Bayesian Net under development, or when drawing conclusions from an ‘expert’ system.

Path algebra for mobile robots

In this paper, we introduce a path algebra well suited for navigation in environments that can be abstracted as topological graphs. From this path algebra, we derive algorithms to reduce routes in such environments. The routes are reduced in the sense that they are shorter (contain fewer edges), but still connect the endpoints of the initial routes. Contrary to planning methods descended from Disjktra’s Shortest Path Algorithm like D , the navigation methods derived from our path algebra do not require any graph representation. We prove that the reduced routes are optimal when the graphs are without cycles. In the case of graphs with cycles, we prove that whatever the length of the initial route, the length of the reduced route is bounded by a constant that only depends on the structure of the environment.

An automated emergency landing system for fixed-wing aircraft: Planning and control

A number of hurdles must be overcome in order to integrate unmanned aircraft into civilian airspace for routine operations. The ability of the aircraft to land safely in an emergency is essential to reduce the risk to people, infrastructure and aircraft. To date, few field-demonstrated systems have been presented that show online re-planning and repeatability from failure to touchdown. This paper presents the development of the Guidance, Navigation and Control (GNC) component of an Automated Emergency Landing System (AELS) intended to address this gap, suited to a variety of fixed-wing aircraft. Field-tested on both a fixed-wing UAV and Cessna 172R during repeated emergency landing experiments, a trochoid-based path planner computes feasible trajectories and a simplified control system executes the required manoeuvres to guide the aircraft towards touchdown on a predefined landing site. This is achieved in zero-thrust conditions with engine forced to idle to simulate failure. During an autonomous landing, the controller uses airspeed, inertial and GPS data to track motion and maintains essential flight parameters to guarantee flyability, while the planner monitors glide ratio and re-plans to ensure approach at correct altitude. Simulations show reliability of the system in a variety of wind conditions and its repeated ability to land within the boundary of a predefined landing site. Results from field-tests for the two aircraft demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed GNC system in live operation. Results show that the system is capable of guiding the aircraft to close proximity of a predefined keyhole in nearly 100% of cases.

Governance and regional planning outcomes: Using governance indicators to support a policy implementation approach

Regional planning faces numerous decision making uncertainties related to the complex interdependencies between urban and regional centres. Questions about how to achieve sustainable planning solutions across regions are a key uncertainty and relate to a lack of information about the actual achievement of outcomes as proposed by the objectives of a plan. Regional plan implementation and its impact on environmental, social and economic outcomes have been little explored within Australian urban and regional planning research. Despite a desire to improve the conditions across Australian regions, ambiguity persists regarding the results of regional planning efforts. Of the variables affecting regional planning, scholars argue that governance has a significant impact on achieving outcomes (see Pahl-Wostl 2009). In order to better analyse the impact of governance, we propose a set of governance indicators to examine decisions across regional planning institutions and apply this to governance models across Queensland’s regions. We contend that these governance indicators can support a more rigorous assessment of the impacts of governance models on plan implementation and outcomes. We propose that this is a way to better understand the relationship between planning and outcomes across urban and regional areas.

Acute myocardial infarction: The spouse's experience

Given the marked changes in length of hospital stay and the number of CAB procedures being performed, it is essential that health professionals are aware of the potential impact these changes could have on the spouses of patients who have undergone CAB surgery. Results from numerous quantitative studies suggest that spouses of patients undergoing CAB surgery experience both physical and emotional stress before and after their partners surgery. While such studies have contributed to our understanding, they fail to capture the qualitative experience of what it is like to be a spouse of a partner who has undergone CAB surgery, specifically in the context of changes in the length of hospital stay. The objective of this study was to describe the experience of spouses of patients who had recently undergone CAB surgery. This study utilised a qualitative methodology and was guided by Husserl's phenomenological approach. Data was obtained from four participants by in depth open ended interviews. This study has implications for all health professionals involved in the care of patients and their families undergoing CAB surgery. If health professionals are to provide holistic care, they need to understand more fully the qualitative experience of spouses of critically ill patients. The purpose of this study was to describe the experience of spouses whose partner's had suffered an acute myocardial infarction (MI). The study was guided by a phenomenological approach. This qualitative type of study is new to nursing inquiry, therefore this investigation creates links with understanding the notion of psychosocial nursing processes with the leading cause of death in Australia. Literature concerning the spouses of myocardial infarction patients has predominantly employed quantitative methods, as such results have centred on structured data collection, and categorised outcomes. Such methods have failed to capture the insight of what it is like to be a spouse of a patient who has had an MI. In-depth interviews were conducted with three participants (2 females and 1 male) about their experiences. The major findings of the study were categorised under the headings of uncertainty, emotional turmoil, support information and lifestyle change. Conclusions suggest that spouses are neglected by health professionals and they require as much psychosocial support as their partner in terms of cardiac discharge planning. Spouses need to be granted special consideration, as they progress through a grieving and readjustment process in coming to terms with: (1) the need to support and care for their partner, (2) changes in their roles and (3) adjustments to their current lifestyles.

Assessing uncertainty in pollutant build-up and wash-off processes

Assessing build-up and wash-off process uncertainty is important for accurate interpretation of model outcomes to facilitate informed decision making for developing effective stormwater pollution mitigation strategies. Uncertainty inherent to pollutant build-up and wash-off processes influences the variations in pollutant loads entrained in stormwater runoff from urban catchments. However, build-up and wash-off predictions from stormwater quality models do not adequately represent such variations due to poor characterisation of the variability of these processes in mathematical models. The changes to the mathematical form of current models with the incorporation of process variability, facilitates accounting for process uncertainty without significantly affecting the model prediction performance. Moreover, the investigation of uncertainty propagation from build-up to wash-off confirmed that uncertainty in build-up process significantly influences wash-off process uncertainty. Specifically, the behaviour of particles <150µm during build-up primarily influences uncertainty propagation, resulting in appreciable variations in the pollutant load and composition during a wash-off event.

Influence of uncertainty inherent to heavy metal build-up and wash-off on stormwater quality

Uncertainty inherent to heavy metal build-up and wash-off stems from process variability. This results in inaccurate interpretation of stormwater quality model predictions. The research study has characterised the variability in heavy metal build-up and wash-off processes based on the temporal variations in particle-bound heavy metals commonly found on urban roads. The study outcomes found that the distribution of Al, Cr, Mn, Fe, Ni, Cu, Zn, Cd and Pb were consistent over particle size fractions <150µm and >150µm, with most metals concentrated in the particle size fraction <150µm. When build-up and wash-off are considered as independent processes, the temporal variations in these processes in relation to the heavy metals load are consistent with variations in the particulate load. However, the temporal variations in the load in build-up and wash-off of heavy metals and particulates are not consistent for consecutive build-up and wash-off events that occur on a continuous timeline. These inconsistencies are attributed to interactions between heavy metals and particulates <150µm and >150µm, which are influenced by particle characteristics such as organic matter content. The behavioural variability of particles determines the variations in the heavy metals load entrained in stormwater runoff. Accordingly, the variability in build-up and wash-off of particle-bound pollutants needs to be characterised in the description of pollutant attachment to particulates in stormwater quality modelling. This will ensure the accounting of process uncertainty, and thereby enhancing the interpretation of the outcomes derived from modelling studies.

Predictive technology and natural hazards: Risk for Australian planning authorities?

Purpose The object of this paper is to examine whether the improvements in technology that enhance community understanding of the frequency and severity of natural hazards also increased the risk of potential liability of planning authorities in negligence. In Australia, the National Strategy imposes a resilience based approach to disaster management and stresses that responsible land use planning can reduce or prevent the impact of natural hazards upon communities. Design/methodology/approach This paper analyses how the principles of negligence allocate responsibility for loss suffered by a landowner in a hazard prone area between the landowner and local government. Findings The analysis in this paper concludes that despite being able to establish a causal link between the loss suffered by a landowner and the approval of a local authority to build in a hazard prone area, it would be in the rarest of circumstances a negligence action may be proven. Research limitations/implications The focus of this paper is on planning policies and land development, not on the negligent provision of advice or information by the local authority. Practical implications This paper identifies the issues a landowner may face when seeking compensation from a local authority for loss suffered due to the occurrence of a natural hazard known or predicted to be possible in the area. Originality/value The paper establishes that as risk managers, local authorities must place reliance upon scientific modelling and predictive technology when determining planning processes in order to fulfil their responsibilities under the National Strategy and to limit any possible liability in negligence.

Looking out of the void : Scaffolds to assist drama higher research degree students on the path to artist–scholar

In recent years, a number of Australian and international universities have offered the ability to complete postgraduate qualifications using the research frame known as creative practice as research. This has been particularly prevalent in the Drama discipline in the Creative Industries Faculty at Queensland University of Technology (QUT). There has been a noticeable shift away from students undertaking a traditional research Master of Arts (Research) or Doctor of Philosophy to a higher proportion of research higher degree students undertaking research through their creative work. The somewhat ephemeral nature of the theatre and performance practice can generate anxieties for students about how to best represent, analyse and discuss the creative practice within a theoretical frame. The argument in this paper is situated in the experience of two artist-scholars who undertook their studies at QUT while under principal supervision of the author and explores the research scaffolds that supervisors in Drama at QUT have developed to assist research higher degree students to navigate the tricky persona of artist–scholar.

Planning for climate change adaptation in a neoliberal context: Influences and responses

This thesis explores how planning policy and practice is responding to the challenge of climate change, particularly in contexts where neoliberal rationales and practices frame decision making. It documents patterns of devolving government responsibilities and experiences of market based mechanisms before reporting on institutional and professional responses to these conditions. The research centred on a qualitative case study and involved thematic content analysis of policy documents and informant interviews. The contribution of the research and thesis is to establish the outlook for climate change adaptation under neoliberal conditions, and to introduce strategies for planners operating within these conditions.

Water resources: Embed stormwater use in city planning [Correspondence]

Potable water resources are being depleted at an alarming rate worldwide. Storm water is a hugely under-utilized resource that could help as extreme weather events become more frequent...