Change Point Estimation in Monitoring Survival Time

Precise identification of the time when a change in a hospital outcome has occurred enables clinical experts to search for a potential special cause more effectively. In this paper, we develop change point estimation methods for survival time of a clinical procedure in the presence of patient mix in a Bayesian framework. We apply Bayesian hierarchical models to formulate the change point where there exists a step change in the mean survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. Markov Chain Monte Carlo is used to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including location and magnitude of changes and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time CUSUM control charts for different magnitude scenarios. The proposed estimator shows a better performance where a longer follow-up period, censoring time, is applied. In comparison with the alternative built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the Bayesian estimator. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

The effect of exercise intensity on fat oxidation and non-exercise activity thermogenesis in overweight/obese men

It is frequently reported that the actual weight loss achieved through exercise interventions is less than theoretically expected. Amongst other compensatory adjustments that accompany exercise training (e.g., increases in resting metabolic rate and energy intake), a possible cause of the less than expected weight loss is a failure to produce a marked increase in total daily energy expenditure due to a compensatory reduction in non-exercise activity thermogenesis (NEAT). Therefore, there is a need to understand how behaviour is modified in response to exercise interventions. The proposed benefits of exercise training are numerous, including changes to fat oxidation. Given that a diminished capacity to oxidise fat could be a factor in the aetiology of obesity, an exercise training intensity that optimises fat oxidation in overweight/obese individuals would improve impaired fat oxidation, and potentially reduce health risks that are associated with obesity. To improve our understanding of the effectiveness of exercise for weight management, it is important to ensure exercise intensity is appropriately prescribed, and to identify and monitor potential compensatory behavioural changes consequent to exercise training. In line with the gaps in the literature, three studies were performed. The aim of Study 1 was to determine the effect of acute bouts of moderate- and high-intensity walking exercise on NEAT in overweight and obese men. Sixteen participants performed a single bout of either moderate-intensity walking exercise (MIE) or high-intensity walking exercise (HIE) on two separate occasions. The MIE consisted of walking for 60-min on a motorised treadmill at 6 km.h-1. The 60-min HIE session consisted of walking in 5-min intervals at 6 km.h-1 and 10% grade followed by 5-min at 0% grade. NEAT was assessed by accelerometer three days before, on the day of, and three days after the exercise sessions. There was no significant difference in NEAT vector magnitude (counts.min-1) between the pre-exercise period (days 1-3) and the exercise day (day 4) for either protocol. In addition, there was no change in NEAT during the three days following the MIE session, however NEAT increased by 16% on day 7 (post-exercise) compared with the exercise day (P = 0.32). During the post-exercise period following the HIE session, NEAT was increased by 25% on day 7 compared with the exercise day (P = 0.08), and by 30-33% compared with the pre-exercise period (day 1, day 2 and day 3); P = 0.03, 0.03, 0.02, respectively. To conclude, a single bout of either MIE or HIE did not alter NEAT on the exercise day or on the first two days following the exercise session. However, extending the monitoring of NEAT allowed the detection of a 48 hour delay in increased NEAT after performing HIE. A longer-term intervention is needed to determine the effect of accumulated exercise sessions over a week on NEAT. In Study 2, there were two primary aims. The first aim was to test the reliability of a discontinuous incremental exercise protocol (DISCON-FATmax) to identify the workload at which fat oxidation is maximised (FATmax). Ten overweight and obese sedentary male men (mean BMI of 29.5 ¡Ó 4.5 kg/m2 and mean age of 28.0 ¡Ó 5.3 y) participated in this study and performed two identical DISCON-FATmax tests one week apart. Each test consisted of alternate 4-min exercise and 2-min rest intervals on a cycle ergometer. The starting work load of 28 W was increased every 4-min using 14 W increments followed by 2-min rest intervals. When the respiratory exchange ratio was consistently >1.0, the workload was increased by 14 W every 2-min until volitional exhaustion. Fat oxidation was measured by indirect calorimetry. The mean FATmax, ƒtV O2peak, %ƒtV O2peak and %Wmax at which FATmax occurred during the two tests were 0.23 ¡Ó 0.09 and 0.18 ¡Ó 0.08 (g.min-1); 29.7 ¡Ó 7.8 and 28.3 ¡Ó 7.5 (ml.kg-1.min-1); 42.3 ¡Ó 7.2 and 42.6 ¡Ó 10.2 (%ƒtV O2max) and 36.4 ¡Ó 8.5 and 35.4 ¡Ó 10.9 (%), respectively. A paired-samples T-test revealed a significant difference in FATmax (g.min-1) between the tests (t = 2.65, P = 0.03). The mean difference in FATmax was 0.05 (g.min-1) with the 95% confidence interval ranging from 0.01 to 0.18. Paired-samples T-test, however, revealed no significant difference in the workloads (i.e. W) between the tests, t (9) = 0.70, P = 0.4. The intra-class correlation coefficient for FATmax (g.min-1) between the tests was 0.84 (95% confidence interval: 0.36-0.96, P < 0.01). However, Bland-Altman analysis revealed a large disagreement in FATmax (g.min-1) related to W between the two tests; 11 ¡Ó 14 (W) (4.1 ¡Ó 5.3 ƒtV O2peak (%)).These data demonstrate two important phenomena associated with exercise-induced substrate oxidation; firstly, that maximal fat oxidation derived from a discontinuous FATmax protocol differed statistically between repeated tests, and secondly, there was large variability in the workload corresponding with FATmax. The second aim of Study 2 was to test the validity of a DISCON-FATmax protocol by comparing maximal fat oxidation (g.min-1) determined by DISCON-FATmax with fat oxidation (g.min-1) during a continuous exercise protocol using a constant load (CONEX). Ten overweight and obese sedentary males (BMI = 29.5 ¡Ó 4.5 kg/m2; age = 28.0 ¡Ó 4.5 y) with a ƒtV O2max of 29.1 ¡Ó 7.5 ml.kg-1.min-1 performed a DISCON-FATmax test consisting of alternate 4-min exercise and 2-min rest intervals on a cycle ergometer. The 1-h CONEX protocol used the workload from the DISCON-FATmax to determine FATmax. The mean FATmax, ƒtV O2max, %ƒtV O2max and workload at which FATmax occurred during the DISCON-FATmax were 0.23 ¡Ó 0.09 (g.min-1); 29.1 ¡Ó 7.5 (ml.kg-1.min-1); 43.8 ¡Ó 7.3 (%ƒtV O2max) and 58.8 ¡Ó 19.6 (W), respectively. The mean fat oxidation during the 1-h CONEX protocol was 0.19 ¡Ó 0.07 (g.min-1). A paired-samples T-test revealed no significant difference in fat oxidation (g.min-1) between DISCON-FATmax and CONEX, t (9) = 1.85, P = 0.097 (two-tailed). There was also no significant correlation in fat oxidation between the DISCON-FATmax and CONEX (R=0.51, P = 0.14). Bland- Altman analysis revealed a large disagreement in fat oxidation between the DISCONFATmax and CONEX; the upper limit of agreement was 0.13 (g.min-1) and the lower limit of agreement was ¡V0.03 (g.min-1). These data suggest that the CONEX and DISCONFATmax protocols did not elicit different rates of fat oxidation (g.min-1). However, the individual variability in fat oxidation was large, particularly in the DISCON-FATmax test. Further research is needed to ascertain the validity of graded exercise tests for predicting fat oxidation during constant load exercise sessions. The aim of Study 3 was to compare the impact of two different intensities of four weeks of exercise training on fat oxidation, NEAT, and appetite in overweight and obese men. Using a cross-over design 11 participants (BMI = 29 ¡Ó 4 kg/m2; age = 27 ¡Ó 4 y) participated in a training study and were randomly assigned initially to: [1] a lowintensity (45%ƒtV O2max) exercise (LIT) or [2] a high-intensity interval (alternate 30 s at 90%ƒtV O2max followed by 30 s rest) exercise (HIIT) 40-min duration, three times a week. Participants completed four weeks of supervised training and between cross-over had a two week washout period. At baseline and the end of each exercise intervention,ƒtV O2max, fat oxidation, and NEAT were measured. Fat oxidation was determined during a standard 30-min continuous exercise bout at 45%ƒtV O2max. During the steady state exercise expired gases were measured intermittently for 5-min periods and HR was monitored continuously. In each training period, NEAT was measured for seven consecutive days using an accelerometer (RT3) the week before, at week 3 and the week after training. Subjective appetite sensations and food preferences were measured immediately before and after the first exercise session every week for four weeks during both LIT and HIIT. The mean fat oxidation rate during the standard continuous exercise bout at baseline for both LIT and HIIT was 0.14 ¡Ó 0.08 (g.min-1). After four weeks of exercise training, the mean fat oxidation was 0.178 ¡Ó 0.04 and 0.183 ¡Ó 0.04 g.min-1 for LIT and HIIT, respectively. The mean NEAT (counts.min-1) was 45 ¡Ó 18 at baseline, 55 ¡Ó 22 and 44 ¡Ó 16 during training, and 51 ¡Ó 14 and 50 ¡Ó 21 after training for LIT and HIIT, respectively. There was no significant difference in fat oxidation between LIT and HIIT. Moreover, although not statistically significant, there was some evidence to suggest that LIT and HIIT tend to increase fat oxidation during exercise at 45% ƒtV O2max (P = 0.14 and 0.08, respectively). The order of training treatment did not significantly influence changes in fat oxidation, NEAT, and appetite. NEAT (counts.min-1) was not significantly different in the week following training for either LIT or HIIT. Although not statistically significant (P = 0.08), NEAT was 20% lower during week 3 of exercise training in HIIT compared with LIT. Examination of appetite sensations revealed differences in the intensity of hunger, with higher ratings after LIT compared with HIIT. No differences were found in preferences for high-fat sweet foods between LIT and HIIT. In conclusion, the results of this thesis suggest that while fat oxidation during steady state exercise was not affected by the level of exercise intensity, there is strong evidence to suggest that intense exercise could have a debilitative effect on NEAT.

Risk factors for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection among children in Greenland

Objective To examine the risk factors for Mycobacterium tuberculosis infection (MTI) among Greenlandic children for the purpose of identifying those at highest risk of infection. Methods Between 2005 and 2007, 1797 Greenlandic schoolchildren in five different areas were tested for MTI with an interferon gamma release assay (IGRA) and a tuberculin skin test (TST). Parents or guardians were surveyed using a standardized self-administered questionnaire to obtain data on crowding in the household, parents’ educational level and the child’s health status. Demographic data for each child – i.e. parents’ place of birth, number of siblings, distance between siblings (next younger and next older), birth order and mother’s age when the child was born – were also extracted from a public registry. Logistic regression was used to check for associations between these variables and MTI, and all results were expressed as odds ratios (ORs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Children were considered to have MTI if they tested positive on both the IGRA assay and the TST. Findings The overall prevalence of MTI was 8.5% (152/1797). MTI was diagnosed in 26.7% of the children with a known TB contact, as opposed to 6.4% of the children without such contact. Overall, the MTI rate was higher among Inuit children (OR: 4.22; 95% CI: 1.55–11.5) and among children born less than one year after the birth of the next older sibling (OR: 2.48; 95% CI: 1.33–4.63). Self-reported TB contact modified the profile to include household crowding and low mother’s education. Children who had an older MTI-positive sibling were much more likely to test positive for MTI themselves (OR: 14.2; 95% CI: 5.75–35.0) than children without an infected older sibling. Conclusion Ethnicity, sibling relations, number of household residents and maternal level of education are factors associated with the risk of TB infection among children in Greenland. The strong household clustering of MTI suggests that family sources of exposure are important.

Sporadic childhood Burkitt lymphoma incidence in the United States during 1992-2005

Background The risk factors and co-factors for sporadic childhood BL are unknown. We investigated demographic and age-specific characteristics of childhood BL (0–14 years) in the U.S. Procedure BL age-standardized incidence rates (2000 U.S. standard population), were calculated using data obtained from 12 registries in the NCI’s Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results program for cases diagnosed from 1992 through 2005. Incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals (95% CI) were calculated by gender, age-group, race, ethnicity, calendar-year period, and registry. Results Of 296 cases identified, 56% were diagnosed in lymph nodes, 21% in abdominal organs, not including retroperitoneal lymph nodes, 14% were Burkitt cell leukemia, and 9% on face/head structures. The male-to-female case ratio was highest for facial/head tumors (25:1) and lowest for Burkitt cell leukemia (1.6:1). BL incidence rate was 2.5 (95% CI 2.3–2.8) cases per million person-years and was higher among boys than girls (3.9 vs. 1.1, p<0.001) and higher among Whites and Asians/Pacific Islanders than among Blacks (2.8 and 2.9 vs.1.2, respectively, p<0.001). By ethnicity, BL incidence was higher among non-Hispanic Whites than Hispanic Whites (3.2 vs. 2.0, p=0.002). Age-specific incidence rate for BL peaked by age 3–5 years (3.4 cases per million), then stabilized or declined with increasing age, but it did not vary with calendar-year or registry area. Conclusions Our results indicate that early childhood exposures, male-sex, and White race may be risk factors for sporadic childhood BL in the United States. Keywords: epidemiology, pediatric cancer, non-Hodgkin lymphoma, HIV/AIDS

Risk of Human Papillomavirus-Associated Cancers Among Persons With AIDS

Background Although risk of human papillomavirus (HPV)–associated cancers of the anus, cervix, oropharynx, penis, vagina, and vulva is increased among persons with AIDS, the etiologic role of immunosuppression is unclear and incidence trends for these cancers over time, particularly after the introduction of highly active antiretroviral therapy in 1996, are not well described. Methods Data on 499 230 individuals diagnosed with AIDS from January 1, 1980, through December 31, 2004, were linked with cancer registries in 15 US regions. Risk of in situ and invasive HPV-associated cancers, compared with that in the general population, was measured by use of standardized incidence ratios (SIRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). We evaluated the relationship of immunosuppression with incidence during the period of 4–60 months after AIDS onset by use of CD4 T-cell counts measured at AIDS onset. Incidence during the 4–60 months after AIDS onset was compared across three periods (1980–1989, 1990–1995, and 1996–2004). All statistical tests were two-sided. Results Among persons with AIDS, we observed statistically significantly elevated risk of all HPV-associated in situ (SIRs ranged from 8.9, 95% CI = 8.0 to 9.9, for cervical cancer to 68.6, 95% CI = 59.7 to 78.4, for anal cancer among men) and invasive (SIRs ranged from 1.6, 95% CI = 1.2 to 2.1, for oropharyngeal cancer to 34.6, 95% CI = 30.8 to 38.8, for anal cancer among men) cancers. During 1996–2004, low CD4 T-cell count was associated with statistically significantly increased risk of invasive anal cancer among men (relative risk [RR] per decline of 100 CD4 T cells per cubic millimeter = 1.34, 95% CI = 1.08 to 1.66, P = .006) and non–statistically significantly increased risk of in situ vagina or vulva cancer (RR = 1.52, 95% CI = 0.99 to 2.35, P = .055) and of invasive cervical cancer (RR = 1.32, 95% CI = 0.96 to 1.80, P = .077). Among men, incidence (per 100 000 person-years) of in situ and invasive anal cancer was statistically significantly higher during 1996–2004 than during 1990–1995 (61% increase for in situ cancers, 18.3 cases vs 29.5 cases, respectively; RR = 1.71, 95% CI = 1.24 to 2.35, P < .001; and 104% increase for invasive cancers, 20.7 cases vs 42.3 cases, respectively; RR = 2.03, 95% CI = 1.54 to 2.68, P < .001). Incidence of other cancers was stable over time. Conclusions Risk of HPV-associated cancers was elevated among persons with AIDS and increased with increasing immunosuppression. The increasing incidence for anal cancer during 1996–2004 indicates that prolonged survival may be associated with increased risk of certain HPV-associated cancers.

Human herpesvirus 8 load and progression of AIDS-related Kaposi sarcoma lesions

Introduction—Human herpesvirus 8 (HHV8) is necessary for Kaposi sarcoma (KS) to develop, but whether peripheral blood viral load is a marker of KS burden (total number of KS lesions), KS progression (the rate of eruption of new KS lesions), or both is unclear. We investigated these relationships in persons with AIDS. Methods—Newly diagnosed patients with AIDS-related KS attending Mulago Hospital, in Kampala, Uganda, were assessed for KS burden and progression by questionnaire and medical examination. Venous blood samples were taken for HHV8 load measurements by PCR. Associations were examined with odds ratio (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) from logistic regression models and with t-tests. Results—Among 74 patients (59% men), median age was 34.5 years (interquartile range [IQR], 28.5-41). HHV8 DNA was detected in 93% and quantified in 77% patients. Median virus load was 3.8 logs10/106 peripheral blood cells (IQR 3.4-5.0) and was higher in men than women (4.4 vs. 3.8 logs; p=0.04), in patients with faster (>20 lesions per year) than slower rate of KS lesion eruption (4.5 vs. 3.6 logs; p<0.001), and higher, but not significantly, among patients with more (>median [20] KS lesions) than fewer KS lesions (4.4 vs. 4.0 logs; p=0.16). HHV8 load was unrelated to CD4 lymphocyte count (p=0.23). Conclusions—We show significant association of HHV8 load in peripheral blood with rate of eruption of KS lesions, but not with total lesion count. Our results suggest that viral load increases concurrently with development of new KS lesions.

H. pylori-infection and antibody immune response in a rural Tanzanian population

Abstract Background: Helicobacter pylori (H. pylori) infection is ubiquitous in sub-Saharan Africa, but paradoxically gastric cancer is rare. Methods: Sera collected during a household-based survey in rural Tanzania in 1985 were tested for anti-H. pylori IgG and IgG subclass antibodies by enzyme immunoassay. Odds ratios (OR) and confidence intervals (CI) of association of seropositivity with demographic variables were computed by logistic regression models. Results: Of 788 participants, 513 were aged ≤17 years. H. pylori seropositivity increased from 76% at 0–4 years to 99% by ≥18 years of age. Seropositivity was associated with age (OR 11.5, 95% CI 4.2–31.4 for 10–17 vs. 0–4 years), higher birth-order (11.1; 3.6–34.1 for ≥3rd vs. 1st born), and having a seropositive next-older sibling (2.7; 0.9–8.3). Median values of IgG subclass were 7.2 for IgG1 and 2.0 for IgG2. The median IgG1/IgG2 ratio was 3.1 (IQR: 1.7–5.6), consistent with a Th2- dominant immune profile. Th2-dominant response was more frequent in children than adults (OR 2.4, 95% CI 1.3–4.4). Conclusion: H. pylori seropositivity was highly prevalent in Tanzania and the immunological response was Th2-dominant. Th2-dominant immune response, possibly caused by concurrent bacterial or parasitic infections, could explain, in part, the lower risk of H. pylori-associated gastric cancer in Africa.

Optimising container processes at multimodal seaport terminals : an integrated approach and application

A Multimodal Seaport Container Terminal (MSCT) is a complex system which requires careful planning and control in order to operate efficiently. It consists of a number of subsystems that require optimisation of the operations within them, as well as synchronisation of machines and containers between the various subsystems. Inefficiency in the terminal can delay ships from their scheduled timetables, as well as cause delays in delivering containers to their inland destinations, both of which can be very costly to their operators. The purpose of this PhD thesis is to use Operations Research methodologies to optimise and synchronise these subsystems as an integrated application. An initial model is developed for the overall MSCT; however, due to a large number of assumptions that had to be made, as well as other issues, it is found to be too inaccurate and infeasible for practical use. Instead, a method of developing models for each subsystem is proposed that then be integrated with each other. Mathematical models are developed for the Storage Area System (SAS) and Intra-terminal Transportation System (ITTS). The SAS deals with the movement and assignment of containers to stacks within the storage area, both when they arrive and when they are rehandled to retrieve containers below them. The ITTS deals with scheduling the movement of containers and machines between the storage areas and other sections of the terminal, such as the berth and road/rail terminals. Various constructive heuristics are explored and compared for these models to produce good initial solutions for large-sized problems, which are otherwise impractical to compute by exact methods. These initial solutions are further improved through the use of an innovative hyper-heuristic algorithm that integrates the SAS and ITTS solutions together and optimises them through meta-heuristic techniques. The method by which the two models can interact with each other as an integrated system will be discussed, as well as how this method can be extended to the other subsystems of the MSCT.

Limestone and speleothem trace element geochemistry as tools for palaeoclimatic reconstruction, Mount Etna region, central-coastal Queensland

This study investigated potential palaeoclimate proxies provided by rare earth element (REE) geochemistry in speleothems and in clay mineralogy of cave sediments. Speleothem and sediment samples were collected from a series of cave fill deposits that occurred with rich vertebrate fossil assemblages in and around Mount Etna National Park, Rockhampton (central coastal Queensland). The fossil deposits range from Plio- Pleistocene to Holocene in age (based on uranium/thorium dating) and appear to represent depositional environments ranging from enclosed rainforest to semi-arid grasslands. Therefore, the Mount Etna cave deposits offer the perfect opportunity to test new palaeoclimate tools as they include deposits that span a known significant climate shift on the basis of independent faunal data. The first section of this study investigates the REE distribution of the host limestone to provide baseline geochemistry for subsequent speleothem investigations. The Devonian Mount Etna Beds were found to be more complex than previous literature had documented. The studied limestone massif is overturned, highly recrystallised in parts and consists of numerous allochthonous blocks with different spatial orientations. Despite the complex geologic history of the Mount Etna Beds, Devonian seawater-like REE patterns were recovered in some parts of the limestone and baseline geochemistry was determined for the bulk limestone for comparison with speleothem REE patterns. The second part of the study focused on REE distribution in the karst system and the palaeoclimatic implications of such records. It was found that REEs have a high affinity for calcite surfaces and that REE distributions in speleothems vary between growth bands much more than along growth bands, thus providing a temporal record that may relate to environmental changes. The morphology of different speleothems (i.e., stalactites, stalagmites, and flowstones) has little bearing on REE distributions provided they are not contaminated with particulate fines. Thus, baseline knowledge developed in the study suggested that speleothems were basically comparable for assessing palaeoclimatically controlled variations in REE distributions. Speleothems from rainforest and semi-arid phases were compared and it was found that there are definable differences in REE distribution that can be attributed to climate. In particular during semiarid phases, total REE concentration decreased, LREE became more depleted, Y/Ho increased, La anomalies were more positive and Ce anomalies were more negative. This may reflect more soil development during rainforest phases and more organic particles and colloids, which are known to transport REEs, in karst waters. However, on a finer temporal scale (i.e. growth bands) within speleothems from the same climate regime, no difference was seen. It is suggested that this may be due to inadequate time for soil development changes on the time frames represented by differences in growth band density. The third part of the study was a reconnaissance investigation focused on mineralogy of clay cave sediments, illite/kaolinite ratios in particular, and the potential palaeoclimatic implications of such records. Although the sample distribution was not optimal, the preliminary results suggest that the illite/kaolinite ratio increased during cold and dry intervals, consistent with decreased chemical weathering during those times. The study provides a basic framework for future studies at differing latitudes to further constrain the parameters of the proxy. The identification of such a proxy recorded in cave sediment has broad implications as clay ratios could potentially provide a basic local climate proxy in the absence of fossil faunas and speleothem material. This study suggests that REEs distributed in speleothems may provide information about water throughput and soil formation, thus providing a potential palaeoclimate proxy. It highlights the importance of understanding the host limestone geochemistry and broadens the distribution and potential number of cave field sites as palaeoclimate information no longer relies solely on the presence of fossil faunas and or speleothems. However, additional research is required to better understand the temporal scales required for the proxies to be recognised.

Effects of cold water immersion on knee joint position sense in healthy volunteers

The purpose of this study was to determine the effects of cryotherapy, in the form of cold water immersion, on knee joint position sense. Fourteen healthy volunteers, with no previous knee injury or pre-existing clinical condition, participated in this randomized cross-over trial. The intervention consisted of a 30-min immersion, to the level of the umbilicus, in either cold (14 ± 1°C) or tepid water(28 ± 1°C). Approximately one week later, in a randomized fashion, the volunteers completed the remaining immersion. Active ipsilateral limb repositioning sense of the right knee was measured, using weight-bearing and non-weight bearing assessments, employing video-recorded 3D motion analysis. These assessments were conducted immediately before and after a cold and tepid water immersion. No significant differences were found between treatments for the absolute (P = 0.29), relative (P = 0.21) or variable error (P = 0.86). The average effect size of the outcome measures was modest (range –0.49 to 0.9) and all the associated 95% confidence intervals for these effect sizes crossed zero. These results indicate that there is no evidence of an enhanced risk of injury, following a return to sporting activity, after cold water.

Cryotherapy and joint position sense in healthy participants: a systematic review

Objective: To (1) search the English-language literature for original research addressing the effect of cryotherapy on joint position sense (JPS) and (2) make recommendations regarding how soon healthy athletes can safely return to participation after cryotherapy. Data Sources: We performed an exhaustive search for original research using the AMED, CINAHL, MEDLINE, and SportDiscus databases from 1973 to 2009 to gather information on cryotherapy and JPS. Key words used were cryotherapy and proprioception, cryotherapy and joint position sense, cryotherapy, and proprioception. Study Selection: The inclusion criteria were (1) the literature was written in English, (2) participants were human, (3) an outcome measure included JPS, (4) participants were healthy, and (5) participants were tested immediately after a cryotherapy application to a joint. Data Extraction: The means and SDs of the JPS outcome measures were extracted and used to estimate the effect size (Cohen d) and associated 95% confidence intervals for comparisons of JPS before and after a cryotherapy treatment. The numbers, ages, and sexes of participants in all 7 selected studies were also extracted. Data Synthesis: The JPS was assessed in 3 joints: ankle (n 5 2), knee (n 5 3), and shoulder (n 5 2). The average effect size for the 7 included studies was modest, with effect sizes ranging from 20.08 to 1.17, with a positive number representing an increase in JPS error. The average methodologic score of the included studies was 5.4/10 (range, 5–6) on the Physiotherapy Evidence Database scale. Conclusions: Limited and equivocal evidence is available to address the effect of cryotherapy on proprioception in the form of JPS. Until further evidence is provided, clinicians should be cautious when returning individuals to tasks requiring components of proprioceptive input immediately after a cryotherapy treatment.

“A problem of versions” : laying down the law in the school playground

Purpose This chapter investigates an episode where a supervising teacher on playground duty asks two boys to each give an account of their actions over an incident that had just occurred on some climbing equipment in the playground. Methodology This paper employs an ethnomethodological approach using conversation analysis. The data are taken from a corpus of video recorded interactions of children, aged 7-9 years, and the teacher, in school playgrounds during the lunch recess. Findings The findings show the ways that children work up accounts of their playground practices when asked by the teacher. The teacher initially provided interactional space for each child to give their version of the events. Ultimately, the teacher’s version of how to act in the playground became the sanctioned one. The children and the teacher formulated particular social orders of behavior in the playground through multi-modal devices, direct reported speech and scripts. Such public displays of talk work as socialization practices that frame teacher-sanctioned morally appropriate actions in the playground. Value of paper This chapter shows the pervasiveness of the teacher’s social order, as she presented an institutional social order of how to interact in the playground, showing clearly the disjunction of adult-child orders between the teacher and children.

Human activity-induced vibration in slender structural systems

Human activity-induced vibrations in slender structural sys tems become apparent in many different excitation modes and consequent action effects that cause discomfort to occupants, crowd panic and damage to public infrastructure. Resulting loss of public confidence in safety of structures, economic losses, cost of retrofit and repairs can be significant. Advanced computational and visualisation techniques enable engineers and architects to evolve bold and innovative structural forms, very often without precedence. New composite and hybrid materials that are making their presence in structural systems lack historical evidence of satisfactory performance over anticipated design life. These structural systems are susceptible to multi-modal and coupled excitation that are very complex and have inadequate design guidance in the present codes and good practice guides. Many incidents of amplified resonant response have been reported in buildings, footbridges, stadia a nd other crowded structures with adverse consequences. As a result, attenuation of human-induced vibration of innovative and slender structural systems very ofte n requires special studies during the design process. Dynamic activities possess variable characteristics and thereby induce complex responses in structures that are sensitive to parametric variations. Rigorous analytical techniques are available for investigation of such complex actions and responses to produce acceptable performance in structural systems. This paper presents an overview and a critique of existing code provisions for human-induced vibration followed by studies on the performance of three contrasting structural systems that exhibit complex vibration. The dynamic responses of these systems under human-induced vibrations have been carried out using experimentally validated computer simulation techniques. The outcomes of these studies will have engineering applications for safe and sustainable structures and a basis for developing design guidance.

Analytical solutions of the multi-term modified power law wave equations in a finite domain

Fractional partial differential equations with more than one fractional derivative term in time, such as the Szabo wave equation, or the power law wave equation, describe important physical phenomena. However, studies of these multi-term time-space or time fractional wave equations are still under development. In this paper, multi-term modified power law wave equations in a finite domain are considered. The multi-term time fractional derivatives are defined in the Caputo sense, whose orders belong to the intervals (1, 2], [2, 3), [2, 4) or (0, n) (n > 2), respectively. Analytical solutions of the multi-term modified power law wave equations are derived. These new techniques are based on Luchko’s Theorem, a spectral representation of the Laplacian operator, a method of separating variables and fractional derivative techniques. Then these general methods are applied to the special cases of the Szabo wave equation and the power law wave equation. These methods and techniques can also be extended to other kinds of the multi term time-space fractional models including fractional Laplacian.

Numerical methods for solving the multi-term time-fractional wave-diffusion equations

In this paper, the multi-term time-fractional wave diffusion equations are considered. The multiterm time fractional derivatives are defined in the Caputo sense, whose orders belong to the intervals [0,1], [1,2), [0,2), [0,3), [2,3) and [2,4), respectively. Some computationally effective numerical methods are proposed for simulating the multi-term time-fractional wave-diffusion equations. The numerical results demonstrate the effectiveness of theoretical analysis. These methods and techniques can also be extended to other kinds of the multi-term fractional time-space models with fractional Laplacian.