Incorporating process variability into stormwater quality modelling

Process variability in pollutant build-up and wash-off generates inherent uncertainty that affects the outcomes of stormwater quality models. Poor characterisation of process variability constrains the accurate accounting of the uncertainty associated with pollutant processes. This acts as a significant limitation to effective decision making in relation to stormwater pollution mitigation. The study undertaken developed three theoretical scenarios based on research findings that variations in particle size fractions <150µm and >150µm during pollutant build-up and wash-off primarily determine the variability associated with these processes. These scenarios, which combine pollutant build-up and wash-off processes that takes place on a continuous timeline, are able to explain process variability under different field conditions. Given the variability characteristics of a specific build-up or wash-off event, the theoretical scenarios help to infer the variability characteristics of the associated pollutant process that follows. Mathematical formulation of the theoretical scenarios enables the incorporation of variability characteristics of pollutant build-up and wash-off processes in stormwater quality models. The research study outcomes will contribute to the quantitative assessment of uncertainty as an integral part of the interpretation of stormwater quality modelling outcomes.

Effect of nitrification inhibitors (DMPP and 3MP+ TZ) on soil nitrous oxide emissions from a sub-tropical vegetable production system in Queensland, Australia

The use of nitrification inhibitors, in combination with ammonium based fertilisers, has been promoted recently as an effective method to reduce nitrous oxide (N2O) emissions from fertilised agricultural fields, whilst increasing yield and nitrogen use efficiency. Vegetable cropping systems are often characterised by high inputs of nitrogen fertiliser and consequently elevated emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) can be expected. However, to date only limited data is available on the use of nitrification inhibitors in sub-tropical vegetable systems. A field experiment investigated the effect of the nitrification inhibitors (DMPP & 3MP+TZ) on N2O emissions and yield from a typical vegetable production system in sub-tropical Australia. Soil N2O fluxes were monitored continuously over an entire year with a fully automated system. Measurements were taken from three subplots for each treatment within a randomized complete blocks design. There was a significant inhibition effect of DMPP and 3MP+TZ on N2O emissions and soil mineral N content directly following the application of the fertiliser over the vegetable cropping phase. However this mitigation was offset by elevated N2O emissions from the inhibitor treatments over the post-harvest fallow period. Cumulative annual N2O emissions amounted to 1.22 kg-N/ha, 1.16 kg-N/ha, 1.50 kg-N/ha and 0.86 kg-N/ha in the conventional fertiliser (CONV), the DMPP treatment, the 3MP+TZ treatment and the zero fertiliser (0N) respectively. Corresponding fertiliser induced emission factors (EFs) were low with only 0.09 - 0.20% of the total applied fertiliser lost as N2O. There was no significant effect of the nitrification inhibitors on yield compared to the CONV treatment for the three vegetable crops (green beans, broccoli, lettuce) grown over the experimental period. This study highlights that N2O emissions from such vegetable cropping system are primarily controlled by post-harvest emissions following the incorporation of vegetable crop residues into the soil. It also shows that the use of nitrification inhibitors can lead to elevated N2O emissions by storing N in the soil profile that is available to soil microbes during the decomposition of the vegetable residues over the post-harvest phase. Hence the use of nitrification inhibitors in vegetable systems has to be treated carefully and fertiliser rates need to be adjusted to avoid excess soil nitrogen during the postharvest phase.

Projecting excess emergency department visits and associated costs in Brisbane, Australia, under population growth and climate change scenarios

The direct and indirect health effects of increasingly warmer temperatures are likely to further burden the already overcrowded hospital emergency departments (EDs). Using current trends and estimates in conjunction with future population growth and climate change scenarios, we show that the increased number of hot days in the future can have a considerable impact on EDs, adding to their workload and costs. The excess number of visits in 2030 is projected to range between 98–336 and 42–127 for younger and older groups, respectively. The excess costs in 2012–13 prices are estimated to range between AU$51,000–184,000 (0–64) and AU$27,000–84,000 (65+). By 2060, these estimates will increase to 229–2300 and 145–1188 at a cost of between AU$120,000–1,200,000 and AU$96,000–786,000 for the respective age groups. Improvements in climate change mitigation and adaptation measures are likely to generate synergistic health co-benefits and reduce the impact on frontline health services.

Mathematical modeling for improved greenhouse gas balances, agro-ecosystems, and policy development: Lessons from the Australian experience

If the land sector is to make significant contributions to mitigating anthropogenic greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in coming decades, it must do so while concurrently expanding production of food and fiber. In our view, mathematical modeling will be required to provide scientific guidance to meet this challenge. In order to be useful in GHG mitigation policy measures, models must simultaneously meet scientific, software engineering, and human capacity requirements. They can be used to understand GHG fluxes, to evaluate proposed GHG mitigation actions, and to predict and monitor the effects of specific actions; the latter applications require a change in mindset that has parallels with the shift from research modeling to decision support. We compare and contrast 6 agro-ecosystem models (FullCAM, DayCent, DNDC, APSIM, WNMM, and AgMod), chosen because they are used in Australian agriculture and forestry. Underlying structural similarities in the representations of carbon flows though plants and soils in these models are complemented by a diverse range of emphases and approaches to the subprocesses within the agro-ecosystem. None of these agro-ecosystem models handles all land sector GHG fluxes, and considerable model-based uncertainty exists for soil C fluxes and enteric methane emissions. The models also show diverse approaches to the initialisation of model simulations, software implementation, distribution, licensing, and software quality assurance; each of these will differentially affect their usefulness for policy-driven GHG mitigation prediction and monitoring. Specific requirements imposed on the use of models by Australian mitigation policy settings are discussed, and areas for further scientific development of agro-ecosystem models for use in GHG mitigation policy are proposed.

Temperature variation between neighboring days and mortality: a distributed lag non-linear analysis

Objectives To investigate whether a sudden temperature change between neighboring days has significant impact on mortality. Methods A Poisson generalized linear regression model combined with a distributed lag non-linear models was used to estimate the association of temperature change between neighboring days with mortality in a subtropical Chinese city during 2008–2012. Temperature change was calculated as the current day’s temperature minus the previous day’s temperature. Results A significant effect of temperature change between neighboring days on mortality was observed. Temperature increase was significantly associated with elevated mortality from non-accidental and cardiovascular diseases, while temperature decrease had a protective effect on non-accidental mortality and cardiovascular mortality. Males and people aged 65 years or older appeared to be more vulnerable to the impact of temperature change. Conclusions Temperature increase between neighboring days has a significant adverse impact on mortality. Further health mitigation strategies as a response to climate change should take into account temperature variation between neighboring days.

Mortality reduction following the air pollution control measures during the 2010 Asian Games

Though increased particulate air pollution has been consistently associated with elevated mortality, evidence regarding whether diminished particulate air pollution would lead to mortality reduction is limited. Citywide air pollution mitigation program during the 2010 Asian Games in Guangzhou, China, provided such an opportunity. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases was compared for 51 intervention days (November 1–December 21) in 2010 with the same calendar date of baseline years (2006–2009 and 2011). Relative risk (RR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) were estimated using a time series Poisson model, adjusting for day of week, public holidays, daily mean temperature and relative humidity. Daily PM10 (particle with aerodynamic diameter less than 10 μm) decreased from 88.64 μg/m3 during the baseline period to 80.61 μg/m3 during the Asian Games period. Other measured air pollutants and weather variables did not differ substantially. Daily mortality from non-accidental, cardiovascular and respiratory diseases decreased from 32, 11 and 6 during the baseline period to 25, 8 and 5 during the Games period, the corresponding RR for the Games period compared with the baseline period was 0.79 (95% CI: 0.73–0.86), 0.77 (95% CI: 0.66–0.89) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.57–0.80), respectively. No significant decreases were observed in other months of 2010 in Guangzhou and intervention period in two control cities. This finding supports the efforts to reduce air pollution and improve public health through transportation restriction and industrial emission control.

Pesticide exposure assessment in rice paddy areas: A Japanese perspective

This chapter provides an overview of the Japanese regulatory issues regarding pesticide use in rice paddies and an introduction of the new pesticide registration program. In addition, the experience of the environmental monitoring of pesticides and the modeling approaches used for the calculation of predicted environmental concentrations (PECs) in surface water and ground water systems adjacent to rice paddies in Japan are also discussed. Japan has been one of the major pesticide users in the world. Although having a long history in rice cultivation, the pesticide exposure assessment for paddy rice production received less attention compared with EU and US. Applications of up-to-date techniques and the development of realistic assessment procedures under specific climatic conditions as well as mitigation management practices for controlling pesticide contamination are important for an environmental-friendly rice production. Through the international cooperation and research exchanges, advances in pesticide risk assessment for rice paddies in Asian region and other rice-growing areas in the world would contribute to sustainable rice production. Transplanting of rice seedlings grows almost all rice paddies in Japan. The land preparation starts around April and June, and the harvest season lasts from August to October depending on the region and the rice varieties. Most of the rice paddies are treated with herbicides and other crop protection products, such as fungicides and insecticides that are applied during the crop season accordingly. Newly developed insecticides and fungicides are also applied during seedbed preparation.

Modeling approaches for pesticide exposure assessment in rice paddies

Pesticide use in paddy rice production may contribute to adverse ecological effects in surface waters. Risk assessments conducted for regulatory purposes depend on the use of simulation models to determine predicted environment concentrations (PEC) of pesticides. Often tiered approaches are used, in which assessments at lower tiers are based on relatively simple models with conservative scenarios, while those at higher tiers have more realistic representations of physical and biochemical processes. This chapter reviews models commonly used for predicting the environmental fate of pesticides in rice paddies. Theoretical considerations, unique features, and applications are discussed. This review is expected to provide information to guide model selection for pesticide registration, regulation, and mitigation in rice production areas.

Design and flight testing of an integrated solar powered UAV and WSN for greenhouse gas monitoring emissions in agricultural farms

There is an increased interest in measuring the amount of greenhouse gases produced by farming practices . This paper describes an integrated solar powered Unmanned Air Vehicles (UAV) and Wireless Sensor Network (WSN) gas sensing system for greenhouse gas emissions in agricultural lands. The system uses a generic gas sensing system for CH4 and CO2 concentrations using metal oxide (MoX) and non-dispersive infrared sensors, and a new solar cell encapsulation method to power the unmanned aerial system (UAS)as well as a data management platform to store, analyze and share the information with operators and external users. The system was successfully field tested at ground and low altitudes, collecting, storing and transmitting data in real time to a central node for analysis and 3D mapping. The system can be used in a wide range of outdoor applications at a relatively low operational cost. In particular, agricultural environments are increasingly subject to emissions mitigation policies. Accurate measurements of CH4 and CO2 with its temporal and spatial variability can provide farm managers key information to plan agricultural practices. A video of the bench and flight test performed can be seen in the following link: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Bwas7stYIxQ

In-vehicle filming of driver fatigue on YouTube: Vlogs, crashes and bad advice

Background: Driver fatigue contributes to 15-30% of crashes, however it is difficult to objectively measure. Fatigue mitigation relies on driver self-moderation, placing great importance on the necessity for road safety campaigns to engage with their audience. Popular self-archiving website YouTube.com is a relatively unused source of public perceptions. Method: A systematic YouTube.com search (videos uploaded 2/12/09 - 2/12/14) was conducted using driver fatigue related search terms. 442 relevant videos were identified. In-vehicle footage was separated for further analysis. Video reception was quantified in terms of number of views, likes, comments, dislikes and times duplicated. Qualitative analysis of comments was undertaken to identify key themes. Results: 4.2% (n=107) of relevant uploaded videos contained in-vehicle footage. Three types of videos were identified: (1) dashcam footage (n=82); (2) speaking directly to the camera - vlogs (n=16); (3) passengers filming drivers (n=9). Two distinct types of comments emerged, those directly relating to driver fatigue and those more broadly about the video or its uploader. Driver fatigue comments included: attribution of behaviour cause, emotion experienced when watching the video and personal advice on staying awake while driving. Discussion: In-vehicle footage related to driver fatigue is prevalent on YouTube.com and is actively engaged with by viewers. Comments were mixed in terms of criticism and sympathy for drivers. Willingness to share advice on staying awake suggests driver fatigue may be seen as a common yet controllable occurrence. This project provides new insight into driver fatigue perception, which may be considered by safety authorities when designing education campaigns.

Worker views on safety at roadworks

Roadworks in live traffic environments are hazardous to workers and road users alike. In an increasing body of international research literature, roadwork risks and hazards have been comprehensively examined. As in the broader field of road safety research, much of the work rightly takes a quantitative approach to assessing risk and related issues and to addressing the identified risks appropriately. In Australia, however, limited official data constrains the ability of researchers to achieve an in-depth understanding of the situation at state/territory and national levels based on traditional quantitative analyses. One way to enhance and supplement the limited available data is to consult those who are directly involved in roadworks for qualitative information, although such an approach is rarely reported in the roadwork safety arena. As part of the major study focusing on safety at roadworks in Queensland, 66 workers were interviewed about their perceptions and experiences regarding roadwork safety. This paper thus outlines a qualitative examination of workers' perceptions of the causes of roadwork incidents and the effectiveness of hazard mitigation measures. Consistent with findings reported in the literature is the view among workers that speeding is a major hazard and that police enforcement is the most effective countermeasure. Other hazards commonly observed by workers but less frequently reported elsewhere include driver distraction and aggression toward workers, working in poor weather and working at night. Workers mostly suggested educational measures to address distraction and aggression issues, though such measures are only tentatively supported in the literature.

Organisational driving safety systems analysis: Fleet safety situational issues and system gaps

The identification of safety hazards and risks and their associated control measures provides the foundation for any safety program and essentially determines the scope, content and complexity of an effective occupational health and safety management system. In the case of work-related road safety (WRRS), there is a gap within current knowledge, research and practice regarding the holistic assessment of WRRS safety systems and practice. In order to mitigate this gap, a multi-level process tool for assessing WRRS safety systems was developed from extensive consultation, practice and informed by theoretical models and frameworks. Data collection for the Organisational Driving Safety Systems Analysis (ODSSA) tool utilised a case study methodology and included multiple information sources: such as documents, archival records, interviews, direct observations, participant observations, and physical artefacts. Previous trials and application of the ODSSA has indicated that the tool is applicable to a wide range of organisational fleet environments and settings. This paper reports on the research results and effectiveness of the ODSSA tool to assess WRRS systems across a large organisation that recently underwent considerable organisational change, including amalgamation of multiple organisations. The outcomes of this project identified considerable differences in the degree by which the organisation addressed WRRS across their vehicle fleet operations and provided guidelines for improving organisations’ WRRS systems. The ODSSA tool was pivotal in determining WRRS system deficiencies and provided a platform to inform mitigation and improvement strategies.

Children’s personal exposure to air pollution in rural villages in Bhutan

Exposure assessment studies conducted in developing countries have been based on fixed-site monitoring to date. This is a major deficiency, leading to errors in estimating the actual exposures, which are a function of time spent and pollutant concentrations in different microenvironments. This study quantified school children’s daily personal exposure to ultrafine particles (UFP) using real-time monitoring, as well as volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and NO2 using passive sampling in rural Bhutan in order to determine the factors driving the exposures. An activity diary was used to track children’s time activity patterns, and difference in mean exposure levels across sex and indoor/outdoor were investigated with ANOVA. 82 children, attending three primary schools participated in this study; S1 and S2 during the wet season and S3 during the dry season. Mean daily UFP exposure (cm-3) was 1.08 × 104 for children attending S1, 9.81 × 103 for S2, and 4.19 × 104 for S3. The mean daily NO2 exposure (µg m-3) was 4.27 for S1, 3.33 for S2 and 5.38 for S3 children. Likewise, children attending S3 also experienced higher daily exposure to a majority of the VOCs than those attending S1 and S2. Time-series of UFP personal exposures provided detailed information on identifying sources of these particles and quantifying their contributions to the total daily exposures for each microenvironment. The highest UFP exposure resulted from cooking/eating, contributing to 64% of the daily exposure, due to firewood combustion in houses using traditional mud cookstoves. The lowest UFP exposures were during the hours that children spent outdoors at school. The outcomes of this study highlight the significant contributions of lifestyle and socio-economic factors in personal exposures and have applications in environmental risk assessment and household air pollution mitigation in Bhutan.

Anticipatory and reactive response to falls: Muscle synergy activation of forearm muscles

We investigated the surface electromyogram response of six forearm muscles to falls onto the outstretched hand. The extensor carpi radialis longus, extensor carpi radialis brevis, extensor carpi ulnaris, abductor pollicis longus, flexor carpi radialis and flexor carpi ulnaris muscles were sampled from eight volunteers who underwent ten self-initiated falls. All muscles initiated prior to impact. Co-contraction is the most obvious surface electromyogram feature. The predominant response is in the radial deviators. The surface electromyogram timing we recorded would appear to be a complex anticipatory response to falling modified by the ef- fect on the forearm muscles following impact. The mitigation of the force of impact is probably more importantly through shoulder abduction and extension and elbow flexion rather than action of the forearm muscles.

Influence of organic amendments on greenhouse gas emissions and N use efficiency in sub-tropical cropping systems

This thesis investigated the impact of organic sources of nutrients on greenhouse gas emissions (carbon dioxide, nitrous oxide and methane), nitrogen use efficiency and biomass production in subtropical cropping soils. The study was conducted in two main soil types in subtropical ecosystems, sandy loam soil and clay soil, with a variety of organic materials from agro-industrial residues and crop residues. It is important for recycling of agro-industrial residues and agricultural residues and the mitigation of greenhouse gas emissions and nitrogen use efficiency.