Surrogate indicators for assessing community resilience

The importance of community resilience to natural disasters is being increasingly recognised. This paper presents an approach for the development of surrogate indicators for comprehensive assessment of community resilience, which is crucial in the context of predicted increase in natural disasters resulting from extreme weather events due to climate change. The use of surrogate indicators is advocated because a comprehensive assessment of community resilience across various thematic areas and associated key areas requires the measurement of a large number of resilience indicators which is not always feasible due to time and resource constraints, To overcome this, researchers tend to use secondary data sources, which are easily available but not always reliable. This highlights the need for surrogate indicators that are easy to measure from reliable primary data sources and are adequate to capture the resilience of a community. Firstly, the paper discusses the two approaches for defining and conceptualising community resilience and the need to account for the complex interrelationships between thematic areas, key areas and resilience indicators and their implications for research. Secondly, a comprehensive framework for the assessment of community resilience is proposed and the difficulties associated with the measurement of overall resilience of the community are discussed. Thirdly, the paper explains a two-step approach to develop surrogate indicators highlighting the necessity and challenges associated with it. Finally, the proposed approach is elaborated with a simple example for better understanding.

Clinical outcomes of vitamin D deficiency and supplementation in cancer patients

Results of recent studies suggest that circulating levels of vitamin D may play an important role in cancer-specific outcomes. The present systematic review was undertaken to determine the prevalence of vitamin D deficiency (<25 nmol/L) and insufficiency (25-50 nmol/L) in cancer patients and to evaluate the association between circulating calcidiol (the indicator of vitamin D status) and clinical outcomes. A systematic search of original, peer-reviewed studies on calcidiol at cancer diagnosis, and throughout treatment and survival, was conducted yielding 4,706 studies. A total of 37 studies met the inclusion criteria for this review. Reported mean blood calcidiol levels ranged from 24.7 to 87.4 nmol/L, with up to 31% of patients identified as deficient and 67% as insufficient. The efficacy of cholecalciferol supplementation for raising the concentration of circulating calcidiol is unclear; standard supplement regimens of <1,000 IU D3 /day may not be sufficient to maintain adequate concentrations or prevent decreasing calcidiol. Dose-response studies linking vitamin D status to musculoskeletal and survival outcomes in cancer patients are lacking.

A single dose of azithromycin does not improve clinical outcomes of children hospitalised with bronchiolitis : a randomised, placebo-controlled trial

Objective Bronchiolitis, one of the most common reasons for hospitalisation in young children, is particularly problematic in Indigenous children. Macrolides may be beneficial in settings where children have high rates of nasopharyngeal bacterial carriage and frequent prolonged illness. The aim of our double-blind placebo-controlled randomised trial was to determine if a large single dose of azithromycin (compared to placebo) reduced length of stay (LOS), duration of oxygen (O2) and respiratory readmissions within 6 months of children hospitalised with bronchiolitis. We also determined the effect of azithromycin on nasopharyngeal microbiology. Methods Children aged ≤18 months were randomised to receive a single large dose (30 mg/kg) of either azithromycin or placebo within 24 hrs of hospitalisation. Nasopharyngeal swabs were collected at baseline and 48hrs later. Primary endpoints (LOS, O2) were monitored every 12 hrs. Hospitalised respiratory readmissions 6-months post discharge was collected. Results 97 children were randomised (n = 50 azithromycin, n = 47 placebo). Median LOS was similar in both groups; azithromycin = 54 hours, placebo = 58 hours (difference between groups of 4 hours 95%CI -8, 13, p = 0.6). O2 requirement was not significantly different between groups; Azithromycin = 35 hrs; placebo = 42 hrs (difference 7 hours, 95%CI -9, 13, p = 0.7). Number of children re-hospitalised was similar 10 per group (OR = 0.9, 95%CI 0.3, 2, p = 0.8). At least one virus was detected in 74% of children. The azithromycin group had reduced nasopharyngeal bacterial carriage (p = 0.01) but no difference in viral detection at 48 hours. Conclusion Although a single dose of azithromycin reduces carriage of bacteria, it is unlikely to be beneficial in reducing LOS, duration of O2 requirement or readmissions in children hospitalised with bronchiolitis. It remains uncertain if an earlier and/or longer duration of azithromycin improves clinical and microbiological outcomes for children.

Rating for sustainable subdivision neighbourhood design (RSSND) : case of Bangkok metropolitan region (BMR), Thailand an eco-efficiency modelling approach

Bangkok Metropolitan Region (BMR) is the centre for various major activities in Thailand including political, industry, agriculture, and commerce. Consequently, the BMR is the highest and most densely populated area in Thailand. Thus, the demand for houses in the BMR is also the largest, especially in subdivision developments. For these reasons, the subdivision development in the BMR has increased substantially in the past 20 years and generated large numbers of subdivision developments (AREA, 2009; Kridakorn Na Ayutthaya & Tochaiwat, 2010). However, this dramatic growth of subdivision development has caused several problems including unsustainable development, especially for subdivision neighbourhoods, in the BMR. There have been rating tools that encourage the sustainability of neighbourhood design in subdivision development, but they still have practical problems. Such rating tools do not cover the scale of the development entirely; and they concentrate more on the social and environmental conservation aspects, which have not been totally accepted by the developers (Boonprakub, 2011; Tongcumpou & Harvey, 1994). These factors strongly confirm the need for an appropriate rating tool for sustainable subdivision neighbourhood design in the BMR. To improve level of acceptance from all stakeholders in subdivision developments industry, the new rating tool should be developed based on an approach that unites the social, environmental, and economic approaches, such as eco-efficiency principle. Eco-efficiency is the sustainability indicator introduced by the World Business Council for Sustainable Development (WBCSD) since 1992. The eco-efficiency is defined as the ratio of the product or service value according to its environmental impact (Lehni & Pepper, 2000; Sorvari et al., 2009). Eco-efficiency indicator is concerned to the business, while simultaneously, is concerned with to social and the environment impact. This study aims to develop a new rating tool named "Rating for sustainable subdivision neighbourhood design (RSSND)". The RSSND methodology is developed by a combination of literature reviews, field surveys, the eco-efficiency model development, trial-and-error technique, and the tool validation process. All required data has been collected by the field surveys from July to November 2010. The ecoefficiency model is a combination of three different mathematical models; the neighbourhood property price (NPP) model, the neighbourhood development cost (NDC) model, and the neighbourhood occupancy cost (NOC) model which are attributable to the neighbourhood subdivision design. The NPP model is formulated by hedonic price model approach, while the NDC model and NOC model are formulated by the multiple regression analysis approach. The trial-and-error technique is adopted for simplifying the complex mathematic eco-efficiency model to a user-friendly rating tool format. Credibility of the RSSND has been validated by using both rated and non-rated of eight subdivisions. It is expected to meet the requirements of all stakeholders which support the social activities of the residents, maintain the environmental condition of the development and surrounding areas, and meet the economic requirements of the developers.

Traffic safety risks trends and patterns analysis on motorways

Crashes that occur on motorways contribute to a significant proportion (40-50%) of non-recurrent motorway congestion. Hence, reducing the frequency of crashes assist in addressing congestion issues (Meyer, 2008). Analysing traffic conditions and discovering risky traffic trends and patterns are essential basics in crash likelihood estimations studies and still require more attention and investigation. In this paper we will show, through data mining techniques, that there is a relationship between pre-crash traffic flow patterns and crash occurrence on motorways, compare them with normal traffic trends, and that this knowledge has the potentiality to improve the accuracy of existing crash likelihood estimation models, and opens the path for new development approaches. The data for the analysis was extracted from records collected between 2007 and 2009 on the Shibuya and Shinjuku lines of the Tokyo Metropolitan Expressway in Japan. The dataset includes a total of 824 rear-end and sideswipe crashes that have been matched with crashes corresponding traffic flow data using an incident detection algorithm. Traffic trends (traffic speed time series) revealed that crashes can be clustered with regards to the dominant traffic patterns prior to the crash occurrence. K-Means clustering algorithm applied to determine dominant pre-crash traffic patterns. In the first phase of this research, traffic regimes identified by analysing crashes and normal traffic situations using half an hour speed in upstream locations of crashes. Then, the second phase investigated the different combination of speed risk indicators to distinguish crashes from normal traffic situations more precisely. Five major trends have been found in the first phase of this paper for both high risk and normal conditions. The study discovered traffic regimes had differences in the speed trends. Moreover, the second phase explains that spatiotemporal difference of speed is a better risk indicator among different combinations of speed related risk indicators. Based on these findings, crash likelihood estimation models can be fine-tuned to increase accuracy of estimations and minimize false alarms.

The development of chronic cough in children following presentation to a tertiary paediatric emergency department with acute respiratory illness : study protocol for a prospective cohort study

Background Acute respiratory illness, a leading cause of cough in children, accounts for a substantial proportion of childhood morbidity and mortality worldwide. In some children acute cough progresses to chronic cough (> 4 weeks duration), impacting on morbidity and decreasing quality of life. Despite the importance of chronic cough as a cause of substantial childhood morbidity and associated economic, family and social costs, data on the prevalence, predictors, aetiology and natural history of the symptom are scarce. This study aims to comprehensively describe the epidemiology, aetiology and outcomes of cough during and after acute respiratory illness in children presenting to a tertiary paediatric emergency department. Methods/design A prospective cohort study of children aged <15 years attending the Royal Children's Hospital Emergency Department, Brisbane, for a respiratory illness that includes parent reported cough (wet or dry) as a symptom. The primary objective is to determine the prevalence and predictors of chronic cough (>= 4 weeks duration) post presentation with acute respiratory illness. Demographic, epidemiological, risk factor, microbiological and clinical data are completed at enrolment. Subjects complete daily cough dairies and weekly follow-up contacts for 28(+/-3) days to ascertain cough persistence. Children who continue to cough for 28 days post enrolment are referred to a paediatric respiratory physician for review. Primary analysis will be the proportion of children with persistent cough at day 28(+/-3). Multivariate analyses will be performed to evaluate variables independently associated with chronic cough at day 28(+/-3). Discussion Our protocol will be the first to comprehensively describe the natural history, epidemiology, aetiology and outcomes of cough during and after acute respiratory illness in children. The results will contribute to studies leading to the development of evidence-based clinical guidelines to improve the early detection and management of chronic cough in children during and after acute respiratory illness.

Characteristics of on-road driving performance of persons with central vision loss who use bioptic telescopes

Purpose. To compare the on-road driving performance of visually impaired drivers using bioptic telescopes with age-matched controls. Methods. Participants included 23 persons (mean age = 33 ± 12 years) with visual acuity of 20/63 to 20/200 who were legally licensed to drive through a state bioptic driving program, and 23 visually normal age-matched controls (mean age = 33 ± 12 years). On-road driving was assessed in an instrumented dual-brake vehicle along 14.6 miles of city, suburban, and controlled-access highways. Two backseat evaluators independently rated driving performance using a standardized scoring system. Vehicle control was assessed through vehicle instrumentation and video recordings used to evaluate head movements, lane-keeping, pedestrian detection, and frequency of bioptic telescope use. Results. Ninety-six percent (22/23) of bioptic drivers and 100% (23/23) of controls were rated as safe to drive by the evaluators. There were no group differences for pedestrian detection, or ratings for scanning, speed, gap judgments, braking, indicator use, or obeying signs/signals. Bioptic drivers received worse ratings than controls for lane position and steering steadiness and had lower rates of correct sign and traffic signal recognition. Bioptic drivers made significantly more right head movements, drove more often over the right-hand lane marking, and exhibited more sudden braking than controls. Conclusions. Drivers with central vision loss who are licensed to drive through a bioptic driving program can display proficient on-road driving skills. This raises questions regarding the validity of denying such drivers a license without the opportunity to train with a bioptic telescope and undergo on-road evaluation.

Molecular biomarkers in non-small-cell lung cancer : a retrospective analysis of data from the phase 3 FLEX study

Background: Findings from the phase 3 FLEX study showed that the addition of cetuximab to cisplatin and vinorelbine significantly improved overall survival, compared with cisplatin and vinorelbine alone, in the first-line treatment of EGFR-expressing, advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We investigated whether candidate biomarkers were predictive for the efficacy of chemotherapy plus cetuximab in this setting. Methods: Genomic DNA extracted from formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded (FFPE) tumour tissue of patients enrolled in the FLEX study was screened for KRAS codon 12 and 13 and EGFR kinase domain mutations with PCR-based assays. In FFPE tissue sections, EGFR copy number was assessed by dual-colour fluorescence in-situ hybridisation and PTEN expression by immunohistochemistry. Treatment outcome was investigated according to biomarker status in all available samples from patients in the intention-to-treat population. The primary endpoint in the FLEX study was overall survival. The FLEX study, which is ongoing but not recruiting participants, is registered with ClinicalTrials.gov, number NCT00148798. Findings: KRAS mutations were detected in 75 of 395 (19%) tumours and activating EGFR mutations in 64 of 436 (15%). EGFR copy number was scored as increased in 102 of 279 (37%) tumours and PTEN expression as negative in 107 of 303 (35%). Comparisons of treatment outcome between the two groups (chemotherapy plus cetuximab vs chemotherapy alone) according to biomarker status provided no indication that these biomarkers were of predictive value. Activating EGFR mutations were identified as indicators of good prognosis, with patients in both treatment groups whose tumours carried such mutations having improved survival compared with those whose tumours did not (chemotherapy plus cetuximab: median 17·5 months [95% CI 11·7-23·4] vs 8·5 months [7·1-10·8], hazard ratio [HR] 0·52 [0·32-0·84], p=0·0063; chemotherapy alone: 23·8 months [15·2-not reached] vs 10·0 months [8·7-11·0], HR 0·35 [0·21-0·59], p<0·0001). Expression of PTEN seemed to be a potential indicator of good prognosis, with patients whose tumours expressed PTEN having improved survival compared with those whose tumours did not, although this finding was not significant (chemotherapy plus cetuximab: median 11·4 months [8·6-13·6] vs 6·8 months [5·9-12·7], HR 0·80 [0·55-1·16], p=0·24; chemotherapy alone: 11·0 months [9·2-12·6] vs 9·3 months [7·6-11·9], HR 0·77 [0·54-1·10], p=0·16). Interpretation: The efficacy of chemotherapy plus cetuximab in the first-line treatment of advanced NSCLC seems to be independent of each of the biomarkers assessed. Funding: Merck KGaA. © 2011 Elsevier Ltd.