Estimation of the time of a linear trend in monitoring survival time

Change point estimation is recognized as an essential tool of root cause analyses within quality control programs as it enables clinical experts to search for potential causes of change in hospital outcomes more effectively. In this paper, we consider estimation of the time when a linear trend disturbance has occurred in survival time following an in-control clinical intervention in the presence of variable patient mix. To model the process and change point, a linear trend in the survival time of patients who underwent cardiac surgery is formulated using hierarchical models in a Bayesian framework. The data are right censored since the monitoring is conducted over a limited follow-up period. We capture the effect of risk factors prior to the surgery using a Weibull accelerated failure time regression model. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo to obtain posterior distributions of the change point parameters including the location and the slope size of the trend and also corresponding probabilistic intervals and inferences. The performance of the Bayesian estimator is investigated through simulations and the result shows that precise estimates can be obtained when they are used in conjunction with the risk-adjusted survival time cumulative sum control chart (CUSUM) control charts for different trend scenarios. In comparison with the alternatives, step change point model and built-in CUSUM estimator, more accurate and precise estimates are obtained by the proposed Bayesian estimator over linear trends. These superiorities are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the Bayesian change point detection model are also considered.

Palissya: A global review and reassessment of Eastern Gondwanan material

The conifer genus Palissya is reviewed giving special attention to assessing the reliability of Gondwanan material referred to this genus. The collection localities of Australasian specimens are mapped on palaeogeographic reconstructions of Eastern Gondwana at relevant times between 179 Ma and 119 Ma. Australasian and other Gondwanan material previously referred to Palissya is considered to differ substantially from the generic diagnosis. Specimens from the Toarcian of Australasia are shown to be allied to Knezourocarpon; this genus is only known from the Toarcian of eastern Australia. Middle Jurassic–Lower Cretaceous Australasian specimens previously referred to Palissya are likely allied to the Knezourocarponaceae fam. nov. The higher taxonomic affinity of this family is unknown but broadly, its structure is suggestive of ginkgoalean or pteridospermous affiliation. Southern hemisphere specimens were probably catkin-like and megascopically very different from the northern hemisphere Palissya and the two groups are unlikely to be closely related. Consequently, genuine Palissya cones and foliage appear to be restricted to the Rhaetian–Lower Jurassic of the northern hemisphere.

Image-based midsole insert design and the material effects on heel plantar pressure distribution during simulated walking loads

The primary objective of this paper is to study the use of medical image-based finite element (FE) modelling in subjectspecific midsole design and optimisation for heel pressure reduction using a midsole plug under the calcaneus area (UCA). Plugs with different relative dimensions to the size of the calcaneus of the subject have been incorporated in the heel region of the midsole. The FE foot model was validated by comparing the numerically predicted plantar pressure with biomechanical tests conducted on the same subject. For each UCA midsole plug design, the effect of material properties and plug thicknesses on the plantar pressure distribution and peak pressure level during the heel strike phase of normal walking was systematically studied. The results showed that the UCA midsole insert could effectively modify the pressure distribution, and its effect is directly associated with the ratio of the plug dimension to the size of the calcaneus bone of the subject. A medium hardness plug with a size of 95% of the calcaneus has achieved the best performance for relieving the peak pressure in comparison with the pressure level for a solid midsole without a plug, whereas a smaller plug with a size of 65% of the calcaneus insert with a very soft material showed minimum beneficial effect for the pressure relief.

#auspol: The hashtag as community, event, and material object for engaging with Australian politics

Critical, loud, highly discursive and polarised; the #auspol hashtag represents a space, an event and a network for politically involved individuals to engage in and with Australian politics and speak to, at and about a variety of involved stakeholders. Contributors declare, debate and often berate each other’s opinions about current Australian politics. The hashtag itself is an important material object and engagement event involved within this performance of political participation. As a long-standing institution in the Twittersphere, and one studied by the authors and their colleagues since its early beginnings (Bruns and Burgess, 2011; Bruns and Stieglitz, 2012; 2013), the #auspol hashtag provides a potent case study through which to explore the discursive and affective dimensions of a hashtag public. This chapter that engages both empirically and theoretically with the use of this particular hashtag on Twitter to provide a qualitatively illustrated case in point for thinking about the long-term use of political hashtags as engagement events.

Induced smoothing for rank regression with censored survival times

Adaptions of weighted rank regression to the accelerated failure time model for censored survival data have been successful in yielding asymptotically normal estimates and flexible weighting schemes to increase statistical efficiencies. However, for only one simple weighting scheme, Gehan or Wilcoxon weights, are estimating equations guaranteed to be monotone in parameter components, and even in this case are step functions, requiring the equivalent of linear programming for computation. The lack of smoothness makes standard error or covariance matrix estimation even more difficult. An induced smoothing technique overcame these difficulties in various problems involving monotone but pure jump estimating equations, including conventional rank regression. The present paper applies induced smoothing to the Gehan-Wilcoxon weighted rank regression for the accelerated failure time model, for the more difficult case of survival time data subject to censoring, where the inapplicability of permutation arguments necessitates a new method of estimating null variance of estimating functions. Smooth monotone parameter estimation and rapid, reliable standard error or covariance matrix estimation is obtained.

Survival, growth and quality of life in children after orthotopic liver transplantation: A 5 year experience

The aims of this study were to investigate outcome and to evaluate areas of potential ongoing concern after orthotopic liver transplantation (OLT) in children. Actuarial survival in relation to age and degree of undernutrition at the time of OLT was evaluated in 53 children (age 0.58-14.2 years) undergoing OLT for endstage liver disease. Follow-up studies of growth and quality of life were undertaken in those with a minimum follow-up period of 12 months (n = 26). The overall 3 year actuarial survival was 70%. Survival rates did not differ between age groups (actuarial 2 year survival for ages <1, 1-5 and >5 years were 70, 70 and 69% respectively) but did differ according to nutritional status at OLT (actuarial 2 year survival for children with Z scores for weight <-1 was 57%, >-1 was 95%; P = 0.004). Significant catch-up weight gain was observed by 18 months post-transplant, while height improved less rapidly. Quality of life (assessed by Vineland Adaptive Behaviour Scales incorporating socialization, daily living skills, communication and motor skills) was good (mean composite score 91 ± 19). All school-aged children except one were attending normal school. Two children had mild to moderate intellectual handicap related to post-operative intracerebral complications. Satisfactory long-term survival can be achieved after OLT in children regardless of age but the importance of pre-operative nutrition is emphasized. Survivors have an excellent chance of a good quality of life and of satisfactory catch-up weight gain and growth.

Laboratory investigation on the effects of overburden pressure, water, and time on slaking induced material property degradation of coal mine spoil

In open-cut strip mining, waste material is placed in-pit to minimise operational mine costs. Slope failures in these spoil piles pose a significant safety risk to personnel, along with a financial risk from loss of equipment and scheduling delays. It has been observed that most spoil pile failures occur when the pit has been previously filled with water and then subsequently dewatered. The failures are often initiated at the base of spoil piles where the material can undergo significant slaking (disintegration) over time due to overburden pressure and water saturation. It is important to understand how the mechanical properties of base spoil material are affected by slaking when designing safe spoil pile slope angles, heights, and dewatering rates. In this study, fresh spoil material collected from a coal mine in Brown Basin Coalfield of Queensland, Australia was subjected to high overburden pressure (0 – 900 kPa) under saturated condition and maintained over a period of time (0 – 6 months) allowing the material to slake. To create the above conditions, laboratory designed pressure chambers were used. Once a spoil sample was slaked under certain overburden pressure over a period of time, it was tested for classification, permeability, and strength properties. Results of this testing program suggested that the slaking of saturated coal mine spoil increase with overburden pressure and the time duration over which the overburden pressure was maintained. Further, it was observed that shear strength and permeability of spoil decreased with increase in spoil slaking.

Base material characterisation of spoil piles at BMA coal mines

This project was an initiation to investigate slaking induced properties detrition of spoil pile materials with overburden pressure and time. The changes in the material properties over time are important parameters that control the behaviour and performance of the piles. The time dependent mechanical and hydraulic properties reported together with mineralogical changes. One chamber designed to apply slaking in the laboratory and geotechnical investigation conducted to fulfil the objective of this project.

Exact calculations of survival probability for diffusion on growing lines, disks, and spheres: The role of dimension

Unlike standard applications of transport theory, the transport of molecules and cells during embryonic development often takes place within growing multidimensional tissues. In this work, we consider a model of diffusion on uniformly growing lines, disks, and spheres. An exact solution of the partial differential equation governing the diffusion of a population of individuals on the growing domain is derived. Using this solution, we study the survival probability, S(t). For the standard nongrowing case with an absorbing boundary, we observe that S(t) decays to zero in the long time limit. In contrast, when the domain grows linearly or exponentially with time, we show that S(t) decays to a constant, positive value, indicating that a proportion of the diffusing substance remains on the growing domain indefinitely. Comparing S(t) for diffusion on lines, disks, and spheres indicates that there are minimal differences in S(t) in the limit of zero growth and minimal differences in S(t) in the limit of fast growth. In contrast, for intermediate growth rates, we observe modest differences in S(t) between different geometries. These differences can be quantified by evaluating the exact expressions derived and presented here.

Survival probability for a diffusive process on a growing domain

We consider the motion of a diffusive population on a growing domain, 0 < x < L(t ), which is motivated by various applications in developmental biology. Individuals in the diffusing population, which could represent molecules or cells in a developmental scenario, undergo two different kinds of motion: (i) undirected movement, characterized by a diffusion coefficient, D, and (ii) directed movement, associated with the underlying domain growth. For a general class of problems with a reflecting boundary at x = 0, and an absorbing boundary at x = L(t ), we provide an exact solution to the partial differential equation describing the evolution of the population density function, C(x,t ). Using this solution, we derive an exact expression for the survival probability, S(t ), and an accurate approximation for the long-time limit, S = limt→∞ S(t ). Unlike traditional analyses on a nongrowing domain, where S ≡ 0, we show that domain growth leads to a very different situation where S can be positive. The theoretical tools developed and validated in this study allow us to distinguish between situations where the diffusive population reaches the moving boundary at x = L(t ) from other situations where the diffusive population never reaches the moving boundary at x = L(t ). Making this distinction is relevant to certain applications in developmental biology, such as the development of the enteric nervous system (ENS). All theoretical predictions are verified by implementing a discrete stochastic model.

Effect of organic gate dielectric material properties on interfacial charging and discharging of pentacene MIM device

The effect of material properties of an environmentally friendly, optically transparent dielectric material, polyterpenol, on the carrier transients within the pentacene-based double-layer MTM device was investigated. Polyterpenol films were RF plasma polymerised under varied process conditions, with resultant films differing in surface chemistry and morphology. Independent of type of polyterpenol, time-resolved EFISHG study of IZO/polyterpenol/pentacene/Au structures showed similar transient behaviour with carriers injected into pentacene from Au electrode only, confirming polyterpenol to be a suitable blocking layer for visualisation of single-species carrier transportation during charging and discharging under different bias conditions. Polyterpenol fabricated under higher input power show better promise due to higher chemical and thermal stability, improved uniformity, and absence of defects.

Phylogenetic lineage and pilus protein Spb1/SAN1518 affect opsonin-independent phagocytosis and intracellular survival of Group B Streptococcus

Opsonin-independent phagocytosis of Group B Streptococcus (GBS) is important in defense against neonatal GBS infections. A recent study indicated a role for GBS pilus in macrophage phagocytosis (Maisey et al Faseb J 22 2008 1715-24). We studied 163 isolates from different phylogenetic backgrounds and those possessing or lacking the gene encoding the pilus backbone protein, Spb1 (SAN1518, PI-2b) and spb1-deficient mutants of wild-type (WT) serotype III-3 GBS 874391 in non-opsonic phagocytosis assays using J774A.1 macrophages. Numbers of GBS phagocytosed differed up to 23-fold depending on phylogenetic background; isolates possessing spb1 were phagocytosed more than isolates lacking spb1. Comparing WT GBS and isogenic spb1-deficient mutants showed WT was phagocytosed better compared to mutants; Spb1 also enhanced intracellular survival as mutants were killed more efficiently. Complementation of mutants restored phagocytosis and resistance to killing in J774A.1 macrophages. Spb1 antiserum revealed surface expression in WT GBS and spatial distribution relative to capsular polysaccharide. spb1 did not affect macrophage nitric oxide and TNF-alpha responses; differences in phagocytosis did not correlate with N-acetyl d-glucosamine (from GBS cell-wall) according to enzyme-linked lectin-sorbent assay. Together, these findings support a role for phylogenetic lineage and Spb1 in opsonin-independent phagocytosis and intracellular survival of GBS in J774A.1 macrophages.

Surgical fusion of early onset severe scoliosis increases survival in Rett syndrome: A cohort study

Aim Scoliosis is a common co-morbidity in Rett syndrome and spinal fusion may be recommended if severe. We investigated the impact of spinal fusion on survival and risk of severe lower respiratory tract infection in Rett syndrome. Method Data were ascertained from hospital medical records, the Australian Rett Syndrome Database, a longitudinal and population-based registry, and from the Australian Institute of Health and Welfare National Death Index database. Cox regression and generalized estimating equation models were used to estimate the effects of spinal surgery on survival and severe respiratory infection respectively in 140 females who developed severe scoliosis (Cobb angle ≥45°) before adulthood. Results After adjusting for mutation type and age of scoliosis onset, the rate of death was lower in the surgery group (hazard ratio [HR] 0.30, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.12–0.74; p=0.009) compared to those without surgery. Rate of death was particularly reduced for those with early onset scoliosis (HR 0.17, 95% CI 0.06–0.52; p=0.002). There was some evidence to suggest that spinal fusion was associated with a reduction in risk of severe respiratory infection among those with early onset scoliosis (risk ratio 0.41, 95% CI 0.16–1.03; p=0.06). Interpretation With appropriate cautions, spinal fusion confers an advantage to life expectancy in Rett syndrome.

Complete cytogenetic response and major molecular response as surrogate outcomes for overall survival in first-line treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia: A case study for technology appraisal on the basis of surrogate outcomes evidence

Objectives In 2012, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence assessed dasatinib, nilotinib, and standard-dose imatinib as first-line treatment of chronic phase chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML). Licensing of these alternative treatments was based on randomized controlled trials assessing complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and major molecular response (MMR) at 12 months as primary end points. We use this case study to illustrate the validation of CCyR and MMR as surrogate outcomes for overall survival in CML and how this evidence was used to inform National Institute for Health and Care Excellence’s recommendation on the public funding of these first-line treatments for CML. Methods We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify the association between CCyR and MMR at 12 months and overall survival in patients with chronic phase CML. We estimated life expectancy by extrapolating long-term survival from the weighted overall survival stratified according to the achievement of CCyR and MMR. Results Five studies provided data on the observational association between CCyR or MMR and overall survival. Based on the pooled association between CCyR and MMR and overall survival, our modeling showed comparable predicted mean duration of survival (21–23 years) following first-line treatment with imatinib, dasatinib, or nilotinib. Conclusions This case study illustrates the consideration of surrogate outcome evidence in health technology assessment. Although it is often recommended that the acceptance of surrogate outcomes be based on randomized controlled trial data demonstrating an association between the treatment effect on both the surrogate outcome and the final outcome, this case study shows that policymakers may be willing to accept a lower level of evidence (i.e., observational association).

Survival analysis of time-to-event data in respiratory health research studies

This article provides a review of techniques for the analysis of survival data arising from respiratory health studies. Popular techniques such as the Kaplan–Meier survival plot and the Cox proportional hazards model are presented and illustrated using data from a lung cancer study. Advanced issues are also discussed, including parametric proportional hazards models, accelerated failure time models, time-varying explanatory variables, simultaneous analysis of multiple types of outcome events and the restricted mean survival time, a novel measure of the effect of treatment.