Asset life prediction and maintenance decision-making using a non-linear non-Gaussian state space model

Estimating and predicting degradation processes of engineering assets is crucial for reducing the cost and insuring the productivity of enterprises. Assisted by modern condition monitoring (CM) technologies, most asset degradation processes can be revealed by various degradation indicators extracted from CM data. Maintenance strategies developed using these degradation indicators (i.e. condition-based maintenance) are more cost-effective, because unnecessary maintenance activities are avoided when an asset is still in a decent health state. A practical difficulty in condition-based maintenance (CBM) is that degradation indicators extracted from CM data can only partially reveal asset health states in most situations. Underestimating this uncertainty in relationships between degradation indicators and health states can cause excessive false alarms or failures without pre-alarms. The state space model provides an efficient approach to describe a degradation process using these indicators that can only partially reveal health states. However, existing state space models that describe asset degradation processes largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires that failures and inspections only happen at fixed intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which requires expert knowledge and often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This research proposes a Gamma-based state space model that does not have discrete time, discrete state, linear and Gaussian assumptions to model partially observable degradation processes. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate model parameters and asset remaining useful lives. In addition, this research also develops a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP) to model a degradation process that follows the Gamma-based state space model and is under various maintenance strategies. Optimal maintenance strategies are obtained by solving the POSMDP. Simulation studies through the MATLAB are performed; case studies using the data from an accelerated life test of a gearbox and a liquefied natural gas industry are also conducted. The results show that the proposed Monte Carlo-based EM algorithm can estimate model parameters accurately. The results also show that the proposed Gamma-based state space model have better fitness result than linear and Gaussian state space models when used to process monotonically increasing degradation data in the accelerated life test of a gear box. Furthermore, both simulation studies and case studies show that the prediction algorithm based on the Gamma-based state space model can identify the mean value and confidence interval of asset remaining useful lives accurately. In addition, the simulation study shows that the proposed maintenance strategy optimisation method based on the POSMDP is more flexible than that assumes a predetermined strategy structure and uses the renewal theory. Moreover, the simulation study also shows that the proposed maintenance optimisation method can obtain more cost-effective strategies than a recently published maintenance strategy optimisation method by optimising the next maintenance activity and the waiting time till the next maintenance activity simultaneously.

Industry school partnerships : real world learning through the Gateway Schools Projects

In the last decade, a gradual but significant shift in education has taken place. Schools have transformed from hermetically sealed, impermeable bureaucracies to dynamic and flexible organisations characterised by openness to local communities and connectedness to global issues and cultures. They are also more responsive to the aspirations of students and parents. A central feature of what Christian Maroy (2009) has described as the post bureaucratic era of education has been the relationships formed between schools and other organisations through formalised partnerships. Partnerships have been a significant feature of schooling in Queensland since the 1980s when schools developed Vocational Education Programs (VET) providing alternative pathways from schooling to post school training or employment. However, partnerships that have emerged in recent times have been more structured in their organisation and more targeted in terms of the outcomes they aim to achieve. Examples here have included Queensland’s District Youth Achievement plans that linked schools, business, industry bodies, training organisations and community groups to improve transition outcomes, particularly for young people at risk in their transitions from school to post-school life.

Evolutionary biology of Gondwanan non-biting midges (Diptera: Chironomidae)

The potential restriction to effective dispersal and gene flow caused by habitat fragmentation can apply to multiple levels of evolutionary scale; from the fragmentation of ancient supercontinents driving diversification and speciation on disjunct landmasses, to the isolation of proximate populations as a result of their inability to cross intervening unsuitable habitat. Investigating the role of habitat fragmentation in driving diversity within and among taxa can thus include inferences of phylogenetic relationships among taxa, assessments of intraspecific phylogeographic structure and analyses of gene flow among neighbouring populations. The proposed Gondwanan clade within the chironomid (non-biting midge) subfamily Orthocladiinae (Diptera: Chironomidae) represents a model system for investigating the role that population fragmentation and isolation has played at different evolutionary scales. A pilot study by Krosch et al (2009) indentified several highly divergent lineages restricted to ancient rainforest refugia and limited gene flow among proximate sites within a refuge for one member of this clade, Echinocladius martini Cranston. This study provided a framework for investigating the evolutionary history of this taxon and its relatives more thoroughly. Populations of E. martini were sampled in the Paluma bioregion of northeast Queensland to investigate patterns of fine-scale within- and among-stream dispersal and gene flow within a refuge more rigorously. Data was incorporated from Krosch et al (2009) and additional sites were sampled up- and downstream of the original sites. Analyses of genetic structure revealed strong natal site fidelity and high genetic structure among geographically proximate streams. Little evidence was found for regular headwater exchange among upstream sites, but there was distinct evidence for rare adult flight among sites on separate stream reaches. Overall, however, the distribution of shared haplotypes implied that both larval and adult dispersal was largely limited to the natal stream channel. Patterns of regional phylogeographic structure were examined in two related austral orthoclad taxa – Naonella forsythi Boothroyd from New Zealand and Ferringtonia patagonica Sæther and Andersen from southern South America – to provide a comparison with patterns revealed in their close relative E. martini. Both taxa inhabit tectonically active areas of the southern hemisphere that have also experienced several glaciation events throughout the Plio-Pleistocene that are thought to have affected population structure dramatically in many taxa. Four highly divergent lineages estimated to have diverged since the late Miocene were revealed in each taxon, mirroring patterns in E. martini; however, there was no evidence for local geographical endemism, implying substantial range expansion post-diversification. The differences in pattern evident among the three related taxa were suggested to have been influenced by variation in the responses of closed forest habitat to climatic fluctuations during interglacial periods across the three landmasses. Phylogeographic structure in E. martini was resolved at a continental scale by expanding upon the sampling design of Krosch et al (2009) to encompass populations in southeast Queensland, New South Wales and Victoria. Patterns of phylogeographic structure were consistent with expectations and several previously unrecognised lineages were revealed from central- and southern Australia that were geographically endemic to closed forest refugia. Estimated divergence times were congruent with the timing of Plio-Pleistocene rainforest contractions across the east coast of Australia. This suggested that dispersal and gene flow of E. martini among isolated refugia was highly restricted and that this taxon was susceptible to the impacts of habitat change. Broader phylogenetic relationships among taxa considered to be members of this Gondwanan orthoclad group were resolved in order to test expected patterns of evolutionary affinities across the austral continents. The inferred phylogeny and estimated divergence times did not accord with expected patterns based on the geological sequence of break-up of the Gondwanan supercontinent and implied instead several transoceanic dispersal events post-vicariance. Difficulties in appropriate taxonomic sampling and accurate calibration of molecular phylogenies notwithstanding, the sampling regime implemented in the current study has been the most intensive yet performed for austral members of the Orthocladiinae and unsurprisingly has revealed both novel taxa and phylogenetic relationships within and among described genera. Several novel associations between life stages are made here for both described and previously unknown taxa. Investigating evolutionary relationships within and among members of this clade of proposed Gondwanan orthoclad taxa has demonstrated that a complex interaction between historical population fragmentation and dispersal at several levels of evolutionary scale has been important in driving diversification in this group. While interruptions to migration, colonisation and gene flow driven by population fragmentation have clearly contributed to the development and maintenance of much of the diversity present in this group, long-distance dispersal has also played a role in influencing diversification of continental biotas and facilitating gene flow among disjunct populations.

The life-history and relationships of ‘Orthocladius’ pictipennis Freeman (Diptera: Chironomidae)

The previously unknown larva and pupa of ‘Orthocladius’ pictipennis Freeman have been found, and associated by molecular means. Pharate pupae (males within pupae) allow the link to the described adult. We describe the larva and pupa, and provide short notes on the adult. The taxon is unrelated to Orthocladius – no members of this Holarctic genus are present in New Zealand – and therefore we provide a new generic name, Paulfreemania Cranston and Krosch gen. n. as well as a short discussion of relationships amongst austral Orthocladiinae.

Using a social networking site such as Facebook, to enhance the feeling of belonging, within a first year nursing cohort of a large university

Recently I asked a first year student how he was coping with the transition from high school to university. The young fellow looked at me and said, “Man, everything is so different!” I smiled and said “like what?” with which he seriously replied, “Well for one thing, no one tells you that you have to wear a hat at lunch time.” I have to admit I was a little amused and surprised by this student’s response, as so often the focus, is placed on getting first year students to engage academically, when it is obvious at times, that even the mere transition in to university life and the culture itself, can be a hurdle. While teaching, within a large first year unit for over 10 years, it has become apparent that students want more connection with not only the peers that they study with, but also with the University as a whole. Dr Krause pointed out in her keynote paper, On Being Strategic about the First Year (2006), that this “sense of belonging is conducive to enhancing engagement, satisfaction with learning and commitment to study”. It has also become evident, that the way in which students want to be able to communicate has changed, with the advent of capabilities such as Instant Messaging via a network and Short Message Service SMS texting via their hand held mobile phones. To be able to chat and feel connected on social networking sites such as Bebo, Facebook and Twitter is not only a way of the future, it is here now and it is here to stay.

The lived experience of being a sole mother in Taiwan

Aim: To explore the lived experience of being a sole mother in Taiwan Background: The number of sole mothers in Taiwan has increased by 55 % in the last decade due to changes in the social and economic status of women (e.g. earlier divorce, the development of national policies for the protection of women, the rise of feminism, and changing work practices which have seen an increase in the number of women in the workforce) (Taiwan Department of Statistics, 2010). Issues confronting sole mothers as part of daily living involve inability to cope with daily life stressors, little social support, experiencing feelings of helplessness and hopelessness, and lack of self-confidence to assume responsibility for the physical and mental health needs of themselves and their children (Cairney, 2007; Loxton, Mooney & Young, 2006; Samuels-Dennis, 2006; Waldron et al., 1996). Although there have been a number of studies conducted concerning what it means to be a sole mother, few Taiwanese studies have been undertaken. In light of the absence of research on this topic from a Taiwanese perspective, this study was undertaken. Design:A descriptive phenomenological approach was used for this study. Methods: In-depth audio-taped interviews were conducted with 15 sole Taiwanese mothers. The audiotapes were later transcribed, translated into English, and then back translated into Chinese to ensure accuracy of participants‘ information. Colaizzi‘s phenomenological approach to analysis with one additional step (eight steps in all) informed the analytical process. Findings: The process of analysis identified six central themes: 1. Enduring the burdensome, 2. Survival means living day-by-day, 3. Living in the shadows of insomnia, depression and suicidal thoughts, 4. Living with rejection and social isolation, 5. Living with uncertainty, and 6. Transcending difficult times through being resilient. Conclusion: For the participants of this study, the lived world of Taiwanese sole mothers was replete with daily difficulties marked by isolation, loneliness, social disapproval and rejection. Feelings of sadness and dejection were their daily companions. However, amid their myriad hardships, the participants found strength and solace in their children and close friends. Rather than succumb to the pressures of being a sole mother, the participants forged new paths spurred on by their own hopes and dreams for a better future. The findings of this study have the potential to make significant contributions to extant knowledge concerning the lived experiences of sole mothers in Taiwan.

The legal role of medical professionals in decisions to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining treatment : part 3 (Victoria)

This is the final article in a series of three that examines the legal role of medical professionals in decisions to withhold or withdraw life-sustaining treatment from adults who lack capacity. This article considers the position in Victoria. A review of the law in this State reveals that medical professionals play significant legal roles in these decisions. However, the law is problematic in a number of respects and this is likely to impede medical professionals’ legal knowledge in this area. The article examines the level of training that medical professionals receive on issues such as refusal of treatment certificates and substitute decision-making, and the available empirical evidence as to the state of medical professionals’ knowledge of the law at the end of life. It concludes that there are gaps in legal knowledge and that law reform is needed in Victoria. The article also draws together themes from the series as a whole, including conclusions about the need for more and better medical education and about law reform generally.

Reproducing successful rituals in bad times : exploring interactions of a new science teacher

Teaching is emotional work. This is especially the case in the first years of teaching when new teachers are particularly vulnerable. By understanding changes in teacher emotions in the early years of teaching we hope to identify strategies that might ultimately reduce teacher attrition. As part of a larger study of the transition of new teachers to the profession, this ethnographic case study explores how a new science teacher produced and reproduced positive emotional interaction rituals with her students in her first year of teaching. We show how dialogical interactions were positive and satisfying experiences for the teacher, and how they were reproduced successfully in different contexts. We also illustrate how both teacher and students used humor to create a structure for dialogical interactions. During these successful interactions the students used shared resources to satisfy their teacher that they were engaging in the relevant science content. The implications of what we have learned for the professional development of new teachers are discussed in relation to an expanded understanding of teacher emotions.

Prognostic modelling options for remaining useful life estimation by industry

Over recent years a significant amount of research has been undertaken to develop prognostic models that can be used to predict the remaining useful life of engineering assets. Implementations by industry have only had limited success. By design, models are subject to specific assumptions and approximations, some of which are mathematical, while others relate to practical implementation issues such as the amount of data required to validate and verify a proposed model. Therefore, appropriate model selection for successful practical implementation requires not only a mathematical understanding of each model type, but also an appreciation of how a particular business intends to utilise a model and its outputs. This paper discusses business issues that need to be considered when selecting an appropriate modelling approach for trial. It also presents classification tables and process flow diagrams to assist industry and research personnel select appropriate prognostic models for predicting the remaining useful life of engineering assets within their specific business environment. The paper then explores the strengths and weaknesses of the main prognostics model classes to establish what makes them better suited to certain applications than to others and summarises how each have been applied to engineering prognostics. Consequently, this paper should provide a starting point for young researchers first considering options for remaining useful life prediction. The models described in this paper are Knowledge-based (expert and fuzzy), Life expectancy (stochastic and statistical), Artificial Neural Networks, and Physical models.

Re-conceiving the good life : the key to sustainable globalisation

Resource-intensive, high-carbon, Western lifestyles are frequently criticised as unsustainable and deeply unsatisfying. However, these lifestyles are still attractive to the majority of Westerners and to a high proportion of the developing world’s middle classes. This paper argues that the imminent threat of catastrophic climate change constitutes an immediate political, economic and ethical challenge for citizens of the developed world that cannot be tackled by appeals to asceticism or restraint. There can be no solution to climate change until sustainable conceptions of the good life are developed that those in the west want to live and which others might want to live. While the ultimate solution to climate change is the development of low carbon lifestyles, it is important that government initiatives, governance arrangements and economic incentives support rather than undermine that search. Like the global financial crisis, the climate change crisis also demonstrates what happens when weaknesses in national, corporate and professional governance are exacerbated by weaknesses in global governance. In tackling the latter, it is critical the mistakes now evidenced in the former are avoided – including a rethinking of carbon market and carbon tax alternatives. It is also critical that individuals must take responsibility for their actions as consumers, voters and investors.

Ending the life of the act/omission dispute: Causation in withholding and withdrawing life-sustaining measures

My aim in this paper is to challenge the increasingly common view in the literature that the law on end of life decision making is in disarray and is in need of urgent reform. My argument is that this assessment of the law is based on assumptions about the relationship between the identity of the defendant and their conduct, and about the nature of causation, which, on examination, prove to be indefensible. I then provide a clarification of the relationship between causation and omissions which proves that the current legal position does not need modification, at least on the grounds that are commonly advanced for the converse view. This enables me, in conclusion, to clarify important conceptual and moral differences between withholding, refusing and withdrawing life-sustaining measures on the one hand, and assisted suicide and euthanasia, on the other.

Defending the sanctity of life principle : a reply to John Keown

This article is a response to Professor Keown’s criticism of my paper “Finding a Way Through the Ethical and Legal Maze: Withdrawal of Medical Treatment and Euthanasia” (2005) 13 (3) Medical Law Review 357. The article takes up and responds to a number of criticisms raised by Keown in an attempt to further the debate concerning the moral and legal status of withdrawing life-sustaining measures, its distinction from euthanasia, and the implications of the lawfulness of withdrawal for the principle of the sanctity of life.