Effects of temperature on mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand : a time series study

Background The association between temperature and mortality has been examined mainly in North America and Europe. However, less evidence is available in developing countries, especially in Thailand. In this study, we examined the relationship between temperature and mortality in Chiang Mai city, Thailand, during 1999–2008. Method A time series model was used to examine the effects of temperature on cause-specific mortality (non-external, cardiopulmonary, cardiovascular, and respiratory) and age-specific non-external mortality (<=64, 65–74, 75–84, and > =85 years), while controlling for relative humidity, air pollution, day of the week, season and long-term trend. We used a distributed lag non-linear model to examine the delayed effects of temperature on mortality up to 21 days. Results We found non-linear effects of temperature on all mortality types and age groups. Both hot and cold temperatures resulted in immediate increase in all mortality types and age groups. Generally, the hot effects on all mortality types and age groups were short-term, while the cold effects lasted longer. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with cold temperature (19.35°C, 1st percentile of temperature) relative to 24.7°C (25th percentile of temperature) was 1.29 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.16, 1.44) for lags 0–21. The relative risk of non-external mortality associated with high temperature (31.7°C, 99th percentile of temperature) relative to 28°C (75th percentile of temperature) was 1.11 (95% CI: 1.00, 1.24) for lags 0–21. Conclusion This study indicates that exposure to both hot and cold temperatures were related to increased mortality. Both cold and hot effects occurred immediately but cold effects lasted longer than hot effects. This study provides useful data for policy makers to better prepare local responses to manage the impact of hot and cold temperatures on population health.

The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Source apportionment of airborne particulate matter : an overview of Australian and New Zealand studies

Despite the existence of air quality guidelines in Australia and New Zealand, the concentrations of particulate matter have exceeded these guidelines on several occasions. To identify the sources of particulate matter, examine the contributions of the sources to the air quality at specific areas and estimate the most likely locations of the sources, a growing number of source apportionment studies have been conducted. This paper provides an overview of the locations of the studies, salient features of the results obtained and offers some perspectives for the improvement of future receptor modelling of air quality in these countries. The review revealed that because of its advantages over alternative models, Positive Matrix Factorisation (PMF) was the most commonly applied model in the studies. Although there were differences in the sources identified in the studies, some general trends were observed. While biomass burning was a common problem in both countries, the characteristics of this source varied from one location to another. In New Zealand, domestic heating was the highest contributor to particle levels on days when the guidelines were exceeded. On the other hand, forest back-burning was a concern in Brisbane while marine aerosol was a major source in most studies. Secondary sulphate, traffic emissions, industrial emissions and re-suspended soil were also identified as important sources. Some unique species, for example, volatile organic compounds and particle size distribution were incorporated into some of the studies with results that have significant ramifications for the improvement of air quality. Overall, the application of source apportionment models provided useful information that can assist the design of epidemiological studies and refine air pollution reduction strategies in Australia and New Zealand.

The impact of heatwaves on mortality and emergency hospital admissions from non-external causes in Brisbane, Australia

Objectives Heatwaves can have significant health consequences resulting in increased mortality and morbidity. However, their impact on people living in tropical/subtropical regions remains largely unknown. This study assessed the impact of heatwaves on mortality and emergency hospital admissions (EHAs) from non-external causes (NEC) in Brisbane, a subtropical city in Australia. Methods We acquired daily data on weather, air pollution and EHAs for patients aged 15 years and over in Brisbane between January 1996 and December 2005, and on mortality between January 1996 and November 2004. A locally derived definition of heatwave (daily maximum ≥37°C for 2 or more consecutive days) was adopted. Case–crossover analyses were used to assess the impact of heatwaves on cause-specific mortality and EHAs. Results During heatwaves, there was a statistically significant increase in NEC mortality (OR 1.46; 95% CI 1.21 to 1.77), cardiovascular mortality (OR 1.89; 95% CI 1.44 to 2.48), diabetes mortality in those aged 75+ (OR 9.96; 95% CI 1.02 to 96.85), NEC EHAs (OR 1.15; 95% CI 1.07 to 1.23) and EHAs from renal diseases (OR 1.41; 95% CI 1.09 to 1.83). The elderly were found to be particularly vulnerable to heatwaves (eg, for NEC EHAs, OR 1.24 for 65–74-year-olds and 1.39 for those aged 75+). Conclusions Significant increases in NEC mortality and EHAs were observed during heatwaves in Brisbane where people are well accustomed to hot summer weather. The most vulnerable were the elderly and people with cardiovascular, renal or diabetic disease.

Prediction of CO concentrations based on a hybrid Partial Least Square and Support Vector Machine model

Due to the health impacts caused by exposures to air pollutants in urban areas, monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters have become popular as an important topic in atmospheric and environmental research today. The knowledge on the dynamics and complexity of air pollutants behavior has made artificial intelligence models as a useful tool for a more accurate pollutant concentration prediction. This paper focuses on an innovative method of daily air pollution prediction using combination of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as predictor and Partial Least Square (PLS) as a data selection tool based on the measured values of CO concentrations. The CO concentrations of Rey monitoring station in the south of Tehran, from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2011, have been used to test the effectiveness of this method. The hourly CO concentrations have been predicted using the SVM and the hybrid PLS–SVM models. Similarly, daily CO concentrations have been predicted based on the aforementioned four years measured data. Results demonstrated that both models have good prediction ability; however the hybrid PLS–SVM has better accuracy. In the analysis presented in this paper, statistic estimators including relative mean errors, root mean squared errors and the mean absolute relative error have been employed to compare performances of the models. It has been concluded that the errors decrease after size reduction and coefficients of determination increase from 56 to 81% for SVM model to 65–85% for hybrid PLS–SVM model respectively. Also it was found that the hybrid PLS–SVM model required lower computational time than SVM model as expected, hence supporting the more accurate and faster prediction ability of hybrid PLS–SVM model.

Extreme temperatures and paediatric emergency department admissions

Background Children are particularly vulnerable to the effects of extreme temperatures. Objective To examine the relationship between extreme temperatures and paediatric emergency department admissions (EDAs) in Brisbane, Australia, during 2003–2009. Methods A quasi-Poisson generalised linear model combined with a distributed lag non-linear model was used to examine the relationships between extreme temperatures and age-, gender- and cause-specific paediatric EDAs, while controlling for air pollution, relative humidity, day of the week, influenza epidemics, public holiday, season and long-term trends. The model residuals were checked to identify whether there was an added effect due to heat waves or cold spells. Results There were 131 249 EDAs among children during the study period. Both high (RR=1.27; 95% CI 1.12 to 1.44) and low (RR=1.81; 95% CI 1.66 to 1.97) temperatures were significantly associated with an increase in paediatric EDAs in Brisbane. Male children were more vulnerable to temperature effects. Children aged 0–4 years were more vulnerable to heat effects and children aged 10–14 years were more sensitive to both hot and cold effects. High temperatures had a significant impact on several paediatric diseases, including intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory diseases, endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases, nervous system diseases and chronic lower respiratory diseases. Low temperatures were significantly associated with intestinal infectious diseases, respiratory diseases and endocrine, nutritional and metabolic diseases. An added effect of heat waves on childhood chronic lower respiratory diseases was seen, but no added effect of cold spells was found. Conclusions As climate change continues, children are at particular risk of a variety of diseases which might be triggered by extremely high temperatures. This study suggests that preventing the effects of extreme temperature on children with respiratory diseases might reduce the number of EDAs.

Experimental evaluation of an autonomous surface vehicle for water quality and greenhouse gas emission monitoring

This paper describes the experimental evaluation of a novel Autonomous Surface Vehicle capable of navigating complex inland water reservoirs and measuring a range of water quality properties and greenhouse gas emissions. The 16 ft long solar powered catamaran is capable of collecting water column profiles whilst in motion. It is also directly integrated with a reservoir scale floating sensor network to allow remote mission uploads, data download and adaptive sampling strategies. This paper describes the onboard vehicle navigation and control algorithms as well as obstacle avoidance strategies. Experimental results are shown demonstrating its ability to maintain track and avoid obstacles on a variety of large-scale missions and under differing weather conditions, as well as its ability to continuously collect various water quality parameters complimenting traditional manual monitoring campaigns.

Climate change and children’s health : a call for research on what works to protect children

Climate change is affecting and will increasingly influence human health and wellbeing. Children are particularly vulnerable to the impact of climate change. An extensive literature review regarding the impact of climate change on children’s health was conducted in April 2012 by searching electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, ProQuest, ScienceDirect, and Web of Science, as well as relevant websites, such as IPCC and WHO. Climate change affects children’s health through increased air pollution, more weather-related disasters, more frequent and intense heat waves, decreased water quality and quantity, food shortage and greater exposure to toxicants. As a result, children experience greater risk of mental disorders, malnutrition, infectious diseases, allergic diseases and respiratory diseases. Mitigation measures like reducing carbon pollution emissions, and adaptation measures such as early warning systems and post-disaster counseling are strongly needed. Future health research directions should focus on: (1) identifying whether climate change impacts on children will be modified by gender, age and socioeconomic status; (2) refining outcome measures of children’s vulnerability to climate change; (3) projecting children’s disease burden under climate change scenarios; (4) exploring children’s disease burden related to climate change in low-income countries, and ; (5) identifying the most cost-effective mitigation and adaptation actions from a children’s health perspective.

Cents and Sustainability : Securing Our Common Future by Decoupling Economic Growth from Environmental Pressures

The focus of Cents and Sustainability is to respond to the call by Dr Gro Brundtland in the seminal book Our Common Future to achieve, 'a new era of economic growth - growth that is forceful and at the same time socially and environmentally sustainable'. With the 20th anniversary of Our Common Future in 2007, it is clearly time to re-examine this important work in a modern global context. Using the framework of ‘Decoupling Economic Growth from Environmental Pressures’, Cents and Sustainability investigates a range of new evidence and research in order to develop a deeper understanding of how, and under what conditions, this 'forceful sustainable growth' is possible. With an introduction by Dr Jim MacNeill (former Secretary General to the Brundtland Commission, and former Director, OECD Environment Directorate 1978 -1984), the book will carry forewords from Dr Gro Brundtland (former Chair of the World Commission on Environment and Development), Dr Rajendra Pachauri (Chief, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), and joint recipient of the 2007 Nobel Peace Prize on behalf of the IPCC), and Dr Kenneth Ruffing (former Deputy Director and Chief Economist of the OECD Environment Directorate 2000 - 2005). Beginning with a detailed explanation of decoupling theory, along with investigation into a range of issues and barriers to its achievement, the book then focuses on informing national strategies for decoupling. Then putting this into action the book focuses on five key areas of decoupling, namely greenhouse gas emissions, biodiversity, freshwater extraction, waste production, and air pollution, and in each case showing compelling evidence for significant cost effective reductions in environmental pressures. The book concludes with a detailed case study of the groundbreaking application of public interest litigation to combat air pollution in Delhi, India.

The Performance Nexus - A framework for improving energy efficiency in existing commercial buildings by considering a whole-of-building approach

Efforts to reduce carbon emissions in the buildings sector have been focused on encouraging green design, construction and building operation; however, the business case is not very compelling if considering the energy cost savings alone. In recent years green building has been driven by a sense that it will improve the productivity of occupants,i something with much greater economic returns than energy savings. Reducing energy demand in green commercial buildings in a way that encourages greater productivity is not yet well understood as it involves a set of complex and interdependent factors. This paper outlines an investigation into these factors and focuses on better understanding the performance of and interaction between: design elements, internal environmental quality, occupant experience, tenant/leasing agreements, and building regulation and management. In doing so the paper presents a framework for improving energy efficiency in existing commercial buildings by considering a range of interconnected and synergistic elements.

Considering research enquiry into biophilic urbanism and office worker productivity

In cities, people spend a significant portion of their time indoors, much of which is in office buildings. The quality and nature of these spaces have the potential to be a strong determinant of people’s health and wellbeing. There is a body of evidence that suggests experiences of nature increase the rate of attention recovery, reduce stress, depression and anxiety, and increase cognitive abilities. Further, the presence of nature inside buildings (such as pot plants and internal green walls) can improve indoor air quality, potentially reducing illness and increasing cognitive function. Urban design that integrates nature into the built environment to provide these benefits, among others, is called ‘biophilic urbanism’ and is the subject of growing international interest and research. The potential for these benefits to increase worker productivity in office buildings is of particular interest, as this could significantly increase the financial performance of office building-based organisations. However, productivity is a complex concept that is difficult to define, and affected by a multitude of factors, which make it difficult to measure. This inability to quantify productivity increases from investments in nature- experiences in office buildings is currently a significant barrier to such investments. Within this context, this paper considers opportunities for research to explore the relationship between office-based nature experiences and productivity, by reviewing existing research in this field and reflecting on the authors’ own experiences. This review has a particular focus on the importance of quantifying this link in order to encourage private property owners to voluntarily integrate nature into buildings to provide city-wide ecosystem service benefits. The paper begins with a contextual overview of how biophilic urbanism can potentially increase worker productivity. Existing methods of measuring and evaluating the performance of biophilic urbanism within the context of office buildings are then explored, along with a discussion of issues with such methods that are currently limiting investment in biophilic urbanism to increase worker productivity and wellbeing. This includes a summary of a survey within a Perth office building to explore the impact of views of nature through a window. Drawing on these insights, the paper makes recommendations regarding opportunities for focusing future investigations to enhance understanding of how biophilic urbanism can contribute to increased wellbeing and productivity in office buildings. This paper builds on work conducted as part of the Sustainable Built Environment National Research Centre Project 1.5, Harnessing the Potential of Biophilic Urbanism in Australia, which considered the role of nature integrated into the built environment in responding to emerging challenges of climate change, resource shortages and population pressures, while providing a host of co- benefits to a range of stakeholders.

Considering research enquiry into biophilic urbanism and office worker productivity

In cities, people spend a significant portion of their time indoors, much of which is in office buildings. The quality and nature of these spaces have the potential to be a strong determinant of people’s health and wellbeing. There is a body of evidence that suggests experiences of nature increase the rate of attention recovery, reduce stress, depression and anxiety, and increase cognitive abilities. Further, the presence of nature inside buildings (such as pot plants and internal green walls) can improve indoor air quality, potentially reducing illness and increasing cognitive function. Urban design that integrates nature into the built environment to provide these benefits, among others, is called ‘biophilic urbanism’ and is the subject of growing international interest and research. The potential for these benefits to increase worker productivity in office buildings is of particular interest, as this could significantly increase the financial performance of office building-based organisations. However, productivity is a complex concept that is difficult to define, and affected by a multitude of factors, which make it difficult to measure. This inability to quantify productivity increases from investments in nature- experiences in office buildings is currently a significant barrier to such investments. Within this context, this paper considers opportunities for research to explore the relationship between office-based nature experiences and productivity, by reviewing existing research in this field and reflecting on the authors’ own experiences. This review has a particular focus on the importance of quantifying this link in order to encourage private property owners to voluntarily integrate nature into buildings to provide city-wide ecosystem service benefits. The paper begins with a contextual overview of how biophilic urbanism can potentially increase worker productivity. Existing methods of measuring and evaluating the performance of biophilic urbanism within the context of office buildings are then explored, along with a discussion of issues with such methods that are currently limiting investment in biophilic urbanism to increase worker productivity and wellbeing. This includes a summary of a survey within a Perth office building to explore the impact of views of nature through a window. Drawing on these insights, the paper makes recommendations regarding opportunities for focusing future investigations to enhance understanding of how biophilic urbanism can contribute to increased wellbeing and productivity in office buildings. This paper builds on work conducted as part of the Sustainable Built Environment National Research Centre Project 1.5, Harnessing the Potential of Biophilic Urbanism in Australia, which considered the role of nature integrated into the built environment in responding to emerging challenges of climate change, resource shortages and population pressures, while providing a host of co- benefits to a range of stakeholders.

People’s perceptions about the importance of forests on Borneo

We ascertained villagers’ perceptions about the importance of forests for their livelihoods and health through 1,837 reliably answered interviews of mostly male respondents from 185 villages in Indonesian and Malaysian Borneo. Variation in these perceptions related to several environmental and social variables, as shown in classification and regression analyses. Overall patterns indicated that forest use and cultural values are highest among people on Borneo who live close to remaining forest, and especially among older Christian residents. Support for forest clearing depended strongly on the scale at which deforestation occurs. Deforestation for small-scale agriculture was generally considered to be positive because it directly benefits people’s welfare. Large-scale deforestation (e.g., for industrial oil palm or acacia plantations), on the other hand, appeared to be more context-dependent, with most respondents considering it to have overall negative impacts on them, but with people in some areas considering the benefits to outweigh the costs. The interviews indicated high awareness of negative environmental impacts of deforestation, with high levels of concern over higher temperatures, air pollution and loss of clean water sources. Our study is unique in its geographic and trans-national scale. Our findings enable the development of maps of forest use and perceptions that could inform land use planning at a range of scales. Incorporating perspectives such as these could significantly reduce conflict over forest resources and ultimately result in more equitable development processes.