A Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network Framework for passenger facilitation modelling

This paper presents a novel framework for the modelling of passenger facilitation in a complex environment. The research is motivated by the challenges in the airport complex system, where there are multiple stakeholders, differing operational objectives and complex interactions and interdependencies between different parts of the airport system. Traditional methods for airport terminal modelling do not explicitly address the need for understanding causal relationships in a dynamic environment. Additionally, existing Bayesian Network (BN) models, which provide a means for capturing causal relationships, only present a static snapshot of a system. A method to integrate a BN complex systems model with stochastic queuing theory is developed based on the properties of the Poisson and Exponential distributions. The resultant Hybrid Queue-based Bayesian Network (HQBN) framework enables the simulation of arbitrary factors, their relationships, and their effects on passenger flow and vice versa. A case study implementation of the framework is demonstrated on the inbound passenger facilitation process at Brisbane International Airport. The predicted outputs of the model, in terms of cumulative passenger flow at intermediary and end points in the inbound process, are found to have an $R^2$ goodness of fit of 0.9994 and 0.9982 respectively over a 10 hour test period. The utility of the framework is demonstrated on a number of usage scenarios including real time monitoring and `what-if' analysis. This framework provides the ability to analyse and simulate a dynamic complex system, and can be applied to other socio-technical systems such as hospitals.

Fully Bayesian experimental design for pharmacokinetic studies

Utility functions in Bayesian experimental design are usually based on the posterior distribution. When the posterior is found by simulation, it must be sampled from for each future data set drawn from the prior predictive distribution. Many thousands of posterior distributions are often required. A popular technique in the Bayesian experimental design literature to rapidly obtain samples from the posterior is importance sampling, using the prior as the importance distribution. However, importance sampling will tend to break down if there is a reasonable number of experimental observations and/or the model parameter is high dimensional. In this paper we explore the use of Laplace approximations in the design setting to overcome this drawback. Furthermore, we consider using the Laplace approximation to form the importance distribution to obtain a more efficient importance distribution than the prior. The methodology is motivated by a pharmacokinetic study which investigates the effect of extracorporeal membrane oxygenation on the pharmacokinetics of antibiotics in sheep. The design problem is to find 10 near optimal plasma sampling times which produce precise estimates of pharmacokinetic model parameters/measures of interest. We consider several different utility functions of interest in these studies, which involve the posterior distribution of parameter functions.

Gifted students with a reading disability : the impact of lived experience

Gifted students who have a reading disability have learning characteristics that set them apart from their peers. The ability to read impacts upon all areas of the formal curriculum in which print-based texts are common. Therefore, the full intellectual development of gifted students with a reading disability can be repressed because their access to learning opportunities is reduced. When the different learning needs caused by concomitant giftedness and reading disability are not met, it can have serious implications for both academic achievement and the social-emotional wellbeing of these students. In order to develop a deeper understanding of this vulnerable group of students, this study investigated the learning characteristics of gifted students with a reading disability. Furthermore, it investigated how the learning characteristics of these students impact upon their lived experiences. Since achievement and motivation have been shown to be closely linked to self-efficacy, self-efficacy theory underpinned the conceptual framework of the study. The study used a descriptive case study approach to document the lived experiences of gifted students with a reading disability. Nine participants aged between 11 and 18, who were formally identified as gifted with a reading disability, took part in the study. Data sources in the case study database included: cognitive assessments, such as WISC assessments, Stanford Binet 5, or the Raven's Standard Progressive Matrices; the WIAT II reading assessment; the Reader Self-Perception Scale; document reviews; parent and teacher checklists designed to gain information about the students' learning characteristics; and semi-structured interviews with students. The study showed that gifted students with a reading disability display a complex profile of learning strengths and weaknesses. As a result, they face a daily struggle of trying to reconcile the confusion of being able to complete some tasks to a high level, while struggling to read. The study sheds light on the myriad of issues faced by the students at school. It revealed that when the particular learning characteristics and needs of gifted students with a reading disability are recognised and met, these students can experience academic success, and avoid the serious social-emotional complications cited in previous studies. Indeed, rather than suffering from depression, disengagement from learning, and demotivation, these students were described as resilient, independent, determined, goal oriented and motivated to learn and persevere. Notably, the students in the study had developed effective coping strategies for dealing with the daily challenges they faced. These strategies are outlined in the thesis together with the advice students offered for helping other gifted students with a reading disability to succeed. Their advice is significant for all teachers who wish to nurture the potential of those students who face the challenge of being gifted with a reading disability, and for the parents of these students. This research advances knowledge pertaining to the theory of self-efficacy, and self-efficacy in reading specifically, by showing that although gifted students with a reading disability have low self-efficacy, the level is not the same for all aspects of reading. Furthermore, despite low self-efficacy in reading these students remained motivated. The study also enhances existing knowledge in the areas of gifted education and special education because it documents the lived experience of gifted students with a specific learning disability in reading from the students' perspectives. Based on a synthesis of the literature and research findings, an Inclusive Pathway Model is proposed that describes a framework to support gifted students with a reading disability so that they might achieve, and remain socially and emotionally well-adjusted. The study highlights the importance of clear identification protocols (such as the use of a range of assessment sources, discussions with students and parents, and an awareness of the characteristics of gifted students with a reading disability) and support mechanisms for assisting students (for example, differentiated reading instruction and the use of assistive technology).

Group interactions in science practical work

This study explored the interactions of a highly motivated group of students doing traditional practical work in science. Interest focussed on the social construction of understanding and how this could be described. Despite considerable collaboration in constructing an understanding of the task the students rarely focussed on the concepts the practical work was intended to illustrate. Collaboration was described in terms of social behaviours and discourse moves which supported the use of cognitive strategies.

Key influences on motivations for utility cycling (cycling for transport to and from places)

Issue addressed: Although increases in cycling in Brisbane are encouraging, bicycle mode share to work in the state of Queensland remains low. The aim of this qualitative study was to draw upon the lived experiences of Queensland cyclists to understand the main motivators for utility cycling (cycling as a means to get to and from places) and compare motivators between utility cyclists (those who cycle for utility as well as for recreation) and non-utility cyclists (those who cycle only for recreation). Methods: For an online survey, members of a bicycle group (831 utility cyclists and 931 non-utility cyclists, aged 18-90 years) were asked to describe, unprompted, what would motivate them to engage in utility cycling (more often). Responses were coded into themes within four levels of an ecological model. Results: Within an ecological model, built environment influences on motivation were grouped according to whether they related to appeal (safety), convenience (accessibility) or attractiveness (more amenities) and included adequate infrastructure for short trips, bikeway connectivity, end-of-trip facilities at public locations and easy and safe bicycle access to destinations outside of cities. A key social-cultural influence related to improved interactions among different road users. Conclusions: The built and social-cultural environments need to be more supportive of utility cycling before even current utility and non-utility cyclists will be motivated to engage (more often) in utility cycling. So what?: Additional government strategies and more and better infrastructure that support utility cycling beyond commuter cycling may encourage a utility cycling culture.

Police-referred restorative justice for juveniles in Australia

This preliminary paper provides an overview of the legislative and policy context of restorative justice measures for juveniles in each Australian state and territory, highlighting the diverse characteristics of current restorative practices. Further, it provides an indication of the numbers and characteristics of juveniles who are referred by police to restorative justice measures and the offence types for which they are most commonly referred. A number of key points about the application of restorative justice measures to juveniles in Australia’s jurisdictions are highlighted, including that juveniles were referred to conferences primarily for property crimes and that Indigenous juveniles comprised higher proportions of those sent to court than to conferencing. This paper argues that more detailed data on the offending histories, offence types and offence seriousness of juveniles referred by police to restorative justice processes would enable a more finely-grained analysis of restorative justice for juveniles in Australia.

Give some, get some: investigating the relationship between conspicuous donation behaviour on social media and customer value in a blood donation context

Previous research has questioned the role of altruism in charitable donation and suggests that such behaviour is also motivated by self-interest, such as public recognition or emotional satisfaction. Recognising this, not-for-profit organisations have developed strategies that allow individuals to donate conspicuously, and are at an embryonic stage of turning to social media to provide such recognition. Under investigation in this paper, is the relationship between conspicuous donation behaviour (CDB) on social media and customer value, in blood donation. Online survey results, from a sample of 186 Australian blood donors, support the proposed framework. Significant relationships between self-orientated CDB and emotional value, and other-orientated CDB and social value are demonstrated. The findings provide valuable insights into the use of conspicuous donation strategies on social media as a means to add value to the donation experience, and contribute to our understanding into the under-researched areas of CDB and customer value.

Taking victims seriously? : the role of victims' rights movements in the emergence of restorative justice

It is widely accepted in the literature on restorative justice that restorative practices emerged at least partly as a result of the recent shift towards recognising the rights of victims of crime, and increasing the involvement of victims in the criminal justice system. This article seeks to destabilise this claim. Although it accepts that there is a relationship between the emergence of a strong victims' rights movement and the emergence of restorative justice, it argues that this relationship is more nuanced, complex and contingent than advocates of restorative justice allow.

Misperceptions about child sex offenders

Sexual offending against children is a highly emotive issue. It is nonetheless important that public policy initiatives to prevent and/or respond to child sexual abuse are based on the available evidence about child sex offenders. This paper addresses five common misperceptions about the perpetrators of sexual offences against children. Specifically, the issues addressed include whether all child sex offenders are ‘paedophiles’, who sexually abuse children, whether most child sex offenders were victims of sexual abuse themselves, rates of recidivism among child sex offenders and the number of children sex offenders typically abuse before they are detected by police. The evidence outlined in this paper highlights that there are few black and white answers to these questions. Perpetrators of sexual crimes against children are not, contrary to widespread opinion, a homogenous group. Rather, there are a number of varied offending profiles that characterise child sex offenders. Gaining an understanding of the nuances of this offender population is critical if children are to be protected from sexual abuse.

Modeling predictors of risky drug use behavior among male street laborers in urban Vietnam

Background The application of theoretical frameworks for modeling predictors of drug risk among male street laborers remains limited. The objective of this study was to test a modified version of the IMB (Information-Motivation-Behavioral Skills Model), which includes psychosocial stress, and compare this modified version with the original IMB model in terms of goodness-of-fit to predict risky drug use behavior among this population. Methods In a cross-sectional study, social mapping technique was conducted to recruit 450 male street laborers from 135 street venues across 13 districts of Hanoi city, Vietnam, for face-to-face interviews. Structural equation modeling (SEM) was used to analyze data from interviews. Results Overall measures of fit via SEM indicated that the original IMB model provided a better fit to the data than the modified version. Although the former model was able to predict a lesser variance than the latter (55% vs. 62%), it was of better fit. The findings suggest that men who are better informed and motivated for HIV prevention are more likely to report higher behavioral skills, which, in turn, are less likely to be engaged in risky drug use behavior. Conclusions This was the first application of the modified IMB model for drug use in men who were unskilled, unregistered laborers in urban settings. An AIDS prevention program for these men should not only distribute information and enhance motivations for HIV prevention, but consider interventions that could improve self-efficacy for preventing HIV infection. Future public health research and action may also consider broader factors such as structural social capital and social policy to alter the conditions that drive risky drug use among these men.

Motivating domestic energy conservation through comparative feedback in mobile applications and social networking sites

The progress of technology has led to the increased adoption of energy monitors among household energy consumers. While the monitors available on the market deliver real-time energy usage feedback to the consumer, the form of this data is usually unengaging and mundane. Moreover, it fails to address consumers with different motivations and needs to save and compare energy. This master‟s thesis project presents a study that seeks to inform design guidelines for differently motivated energy consumers. The focus of the research is on comparative feedback supported by a community of energy consumers. In particular, the discussed comparative feedback types are explanatory comparison, temporal self-comparison, norm comparison, one-on-one comparison and ranking, whereby the last three support exploring the potential of socialising energy-related feedback in social networking sites, such as Facebook. These feedback types were integrated in EnergyWiz – a mobile application that enables users to compare with their past performance, neighbours, contacts from social networking sites and other EnergyWiz users. The application was developed through a theory-driven approach and evaluated in personal, semi-structured interviews which provided insights on how motivation-related comparative feedback should be designed. It was also employed in expert focus group discussions which resulted in defining opportunities and challenges before mobile, social energy monitors. The findings have unequivocally shown that users with different motivations to compare and to conserve energy have different preferences for comparative feedback types and design. It was established that one of the most influential factors determining design factors is the people users compare to. In addition, the research found that even simple communication strategies in Facebook, such as wall posts and groups can contribute to engagement with energy conservation practices. The concept of mobility of the application was evaluated as positive since it provides place and time-independent access to the energy consumption data.

Toward understanding social engineering

There is no doubt that social engineering plays a vital role in compromising most security defenses, and in attacks on people, organizations, companies, or even governments. It is the art of deceiving and tricking people to reveal critical information or to perform an action that benefits the attacker in some way. Fraudulent and deceptive people have been using social engineering traps and tactics using information technology such as e-mails, social networks, web sites, and applications to trick victims into obeying them, accepting threats, and falling victim to various crimes and attacks such as phishing, sexual abuse, financial abuse, identity theft, impersonation, physical crime, and many other forms of attack. Although organizations, researchers, practitioners, and lawyers recognize the severe risk of social engineering-based threats, there is a severe lack of understanding and controlling of such threats. One side of the problem is perhaps the unclear concept of social engineering as well as the complexity of understand human behaviors in behaving toward, approaching, accepting, and failing to recognize threats or the deception behind them. The aim of this paper is to explain the definition of social engineering based on the related theories of the many related disciplines such as psychology, sociology, information technology, marketing, and behaviourism. We hope, by this work, to help researchers, practitioners, lawyers, and other decision makers to get a fuller picture of social engineering and, therefore, to open new directions of collaboration toward detecting and controlling it.

The power of percent

Which statistic would you use if you were writing the newspaper headline for the following media release: "Tassie’s death rate of deaths arising from transport-related injuries was 13 per 100,000 people, or 50% higher than the national average”? (Martain, 2007). The rate “13 per 100,000” sounds very small whereas “50% higher” sounds quite large. Most people are aware of the tendency to choose between reporting data as actual numbers or using percents in order to gain attention. Looking at examples like this one can help students develop a critical quantitative literacy viewpoint when dealing with “authentic contexts” (Australian Curriculum, Assessment and Reporting Authority [ACARA], 2013a, p. 37, 67). The importance of the distinction between reporting information in raw numbers or percents is not explicitly mentioned in the Australian Curriculum: Mathematics (ACARA, 2013b, p. 42). Although the document specifically mentions making “connections between equivalent fractions, decimals and percentages” [ACMNA131] in Year 6, there is no mention of the fundamental relationship between percent and the raw numbers represented in a part-whole fashion. Such understanding, however, is fundamental to the problem solving that is the focus of the curriculum in Years 6 to 9. The purpose of this article is to raise awareness of the opportunities to distinguish between the use of raw numbers and percents when comparisons are being made in contexts other than the media. It begins with the authors’ experiences in the classroom, which motivated a search in the literature, followed by a suggestion for a follow-up activity.

A new approach to understanding readings for design students

In this paper I describe an innovative technique for helping design students to approach and understand reading tasks. There is ample literature on design students’ use of visual thinking for design tasks, but less on how they can use their visual skills to apply to their learning in other areas, particularly those that challenge them such as academic reading and writing. I set a cartooning task as a way to get students motivated and involved in doing set readings for a design history course. This has been successful in enhancing students’ involvement and understanding, and they have been able to apply their improved understanding to writing tasks based on the cartoons.

Consciousness, solidarity and hope as prevention and rehabilitation

This paper grapples with the question of how progressive criminologists might approach working with people who have committed violent or predatory crimes, or are ‘at risk’ of doing so. Progressives have often been uneasy about ‘intervention’ with people who offend: but in the face of the destructiveness of violence, especially in some parts of the world, a posture of simple non-intervention won’t suffice. I suggest three central principles – which I call consciousness, solidarity and hope – that may guide us in developing ways of working with offenders that are both progressive and effective.