A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

A meta-analysis of 87,040 individuals identifies 23 new susceptibility loci for prostate cancer

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) have identified 76 variants associated with prostate cancer risk predominantly in populations of European ancestry. To identify additional susceptibility loci for this common cancer, we conducted a meta-analysis of > 10 million SNPs in 43,303 prostate cancer cases and 43,737 controls from studies in populations of European, African, Japanese and Latino ancestry. Twenty-three new susceptibility loci were identified at association P < 5 × 10(-8); 15 variants were identified among men of European ancestry, 7 were identified in multi-ancestry analyses and 1 was associated with early-onset prostate cancer. These 23 variants, in combination with known prostate cancer risk variants, explain 33% of the familial risk for this disease in European-ancestry populations. These findings provide new regions for investigation into the pathogenesis of prostate cancer and demonstrate the usefulness of combining ancestrally diverse populations to discover risk loci for disease.

BRCA1 deficiency exacerbates estrogen-induced DNA damage and genomic instability

Germline mutations in BRCA1 predispose carriers to a high incidence of breast and ovarian cancers. BRCA1 functions to maintain genomic stability through critical roles in DNA repair, cell cycle arrest and transcriptional control. A major question has been why BRCA1 loss or mutation leads to tumors mainly in estrogen-regulated tissues, given that BRCA1 has essential functions in all cell types. Here we report that estrogen and estrogen metabolites can cause DNA double strand breaks (DSB) in estrogen receptor-α negative breast cells and that BRCA1 is required to repair these DSBs to prevent metabolite-induced genomic instability. We found that BRCA1 also regulates estrogen metabolism and metabolite-mediated DNA damage by repressing the transcription of estrogen-metabolising enzymes, such as CYP1A1, in breast cells. Lastly, we used a knock-in human cell model with a heterozygous BRCA1 pathogenic mutation to show how BRCA1 haploinsufficiency affects these processes. Our findings provide pivotal new insights into why BRCA1 mutation drives the formation of tumours in estrogen-regulated tissues, despite the general role of BRCA1 in DNA repair in all cell types.

Russell D James and Peter J Wosh (eds)

Public Relations and Marketing for Archives: A How-to-do-it Manual, New York, Neal-Schuman Publishers with the Society of American Archivists, 2011. xiv + 273 pp. ISBN 978-1-5557-0733-0. US$80.00 Public Relations and Marketing for Archives – A How-To-Do-It Manual provides a brief, but broad overview of the key elements of marketing, public relations and stakeholder engagement for archives...

Orientations to Critical Literacy for English as an Additional Language or Dialect (EAL/D) learners: A case study of four teachers of senior English

Recently, the debate around critical literacy has dissipated as literacy education agendas and attendant policies shift to embrace more hybrid approaches to the teaching of senior English. This paper reports on orientations towards critical literacy as expressed by four teachers of senior English who teach culturally and linguistically diverse learners. Teachers’ understandings of critical literacy are important given the emphasis on Critical and Creative Thinking as well as Literacy as General Capabilities underpinning the Australian Curriculum. Using critical discourse analysis and Janks' (2010) Synthesis Model of Critical Literacy, interview and classroom data from four teachers of English as an Additional Language or Dialect (EAL/D) learners in two high schools were analysed for the ways these teachers constructed critical literacy in their talk and practice. While all four teachers indicated significant commitment to critical literacy as an approach to English language teaching, their understandings varied. These ranged from providing access to powerful genres, to rationalist approaches to interrogating text, with less emphasis on multimodal design and drawing on learner diversity. This has significant implications for what kind of learning is being offered to EAL/D learners in the name of English teaching, for syllabus design, and for teacher professional development.

Synthesis and luminescent properties of star-burst D-Pi-A compounds based on 1,3,5-triazine core and carbazole end-capped phenylene ethynylene arms

Two new star-burst compounds based on 1,3,5-triazine core and carbazole end-capped phenylene ethynylene arms (1a and 1b) were synthesized and characterized. Their photophysical properties were investigated systematically via spectroscopic and theoretical methods. Both compounds exhibit strong 1π–π⁎ transitions in the UV region and intense 1π–π⁎/intramolecular charge transfer (1ICT) absorption bands in the UV–vis region. Introducing the carbazole end-capped phenylene ethynylene arm on the 1,3,5-triazine core causes a slight bathochromic shift and enhanced molar extinction coefficient of the 1π–π⁎/1ICT transition band. Both compounds are emissive in solution at room temperature and 77 K, which exhibit pronounced positive solvatochromic effect. The emitting state could be ascribed to 1ICT state in more polar solvent, and 1π–π⁎ state in low-polarity solvent. The high emission quantum yields (Φem=0.90~1.0) of 1a and 1b (in hexane and toluene) make them potential candidates as efficient light-emitting materials. The spectroscopic studies and theoretical calculations indicate that the photophysical properties of these compounds can be tuned by the carbazole end-capped phenylene ethynylene arm, which would also be useful for rational design of photofunctional materials.

Inhibition by poly(acrylic acid) and morphological changes in calcium carbonate and calcium carbonate/calcium sulfate crystallization on silica fibers

An intrinsic exposed core optical fiber sensor (IECOFS) made from fused silica was used to monitor the crystallization of calcium carbonate (CaCO3) and CaCO3/calcium sulfate (CaSO4) composite at 100 and 120 °C in the absence and presence of low-molar-mass (Mn ≤ 2000) poly(acrylic acid) (PAA) with different end groups. The IECOFS responded only to deposition and growth processes on the fiber surface rather than changes occurring in the bulk of the solution. Hexyl isobutyrate-terminated PAA (Mn = 1400) and hexadecyl isobutyrate-terminated PAA (Mn = 1700) were the most effective species in preventing CaCO3 deposition. Phase transformation from vaterite to aragonite/calcite decreased with increasing hydrophobicity of the PAA end group. Low-molar-mass PAA at 10 ppm showed very significant inhibition of CaCO3/CaSO4 composite formation for all end groups investigated.

Vitamin D deficiency in patients with malignancy in Brisbane

PURPOSE: This study aims to investigate the prevalence and factors predictive of vitamin D deficiency in patients with malignancy in Brisbane, Australia (latitude 27° S). METHODS: This is a prospective cross-sectional study measuring serum levels of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25-OHD) in 100 subjects with non-haematological cancer at least 18 years of age not taking vitamin D supplements attending a day oncology unit and oncology/palliative care inpatient ward in Brisbane, Australia. RESULTS: Thirty-seven per cent of outpatient and 49 % of inpatient subjects respectively were vitamin D deficient. Functional status was predictive of low vitamin D levels. CONCLUSION: There was a high prevalence of vitamin D deficiency in patients with cancer in Brisbane, Australia.

An N-ethyl-n-nitrosourea induced corticotropin-releasing hormone promoter mutation provides a mouse model for endogenous glucocorticoid excess

Cushing's syndrome, which is characterized by excessive circulating glucocorticoid concentrations, maybe due to ACTH-dependent or -independent causes that include anterior pituitary and adrenal cortical tumors, respectively. ACTH secretion is stimulated by CRH, and we report a mouse model for Cushing's syndrome due to an N-ethyl-N-nitrosourea (ENU) induced Crh mutation at -120 bp of the promoter region, which significantly increased luciferase reporter activity and was thus a gain-of-function mutation. Crh -120/+ mice, when compared with wild-type littermates, had obesity, muscle wasting, thin skin, hair loss, and elevated plasma and urinary concentrations of corticosterone. In addition, Crh-120/+ mice had hyperglycemia, hyperfructosaminemia, hyperinsulinemia, hypercholesterolemia, hypertriglyceridemia, and hyperleptinemia but normal adiponectin. Crh -120/+ mice also had low bone mineral density, hypercalcemia, hypercalciuria, and decreased concentrations of plasma PTH and osteocalcin. Bone histomorphometry revealed Crh-120/+ mice to have significant reductions in mineralizing surface area, mineral apposition, bone formation rates, osteoblast number, and the percentage of corticoendosteal bone covered by osteoblasts, which was accompanied by an increase in adipocytes in the bone marrow. Thus, a mouse model for Cushing's syndrome has been established, and this will help in further elucidating the pathophysiological effects of glucocorticoid excess and in evaluating treatments for corticosteroid-induced osteoporosis.

Serum vitamin D levels are lower in Australian children and adolescents with type 1 diabetes than in children without diabetes

Vitamin D is synthesised in the skin through the action of UVB radiation (sunlight), and 25-hydroxy vitamin D (25OHD) measured in serum as a marker of vitamin D status. Several studies, mostly conducted in high latitudes, have shown an association between type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM) and low serum 25OHD. We conducted a case-control study to determine whether, in a sub-tropical environment with abundant sunlight (latitude 27.5°S), children with T1DM have lower serum vitamin D than children without diabetes. Fifty-six children with T1DM (14 newly diagnosed) and 46 unrelated control children participated in the study. Serum 25OHD, 1,25-dihydroxy vitamin D (1,25(OH)2D) and selected biochemical indices were measured. Vitamin D receptor (VDR) polymorphisms Taq1, Fok1, and Apa1 were genotyped. Fitzpatrick skin classification, self-reported daily hours of outdoor exposure, and mean UV index over the 35d prior to blood collection were recorded. Serum 25OHD was lower in children with T1DM (n=56) than in controls (n=46) [mean (95%CI)=78.7 (71.8-85.6) nmol/L vs. 91.4 (83.5-98.7) nmol/L, p=0.02]. T1DM children had lower self-reported outdoor exposure and mean UV exposure, but no significant difference in distribution of VDR polymorphisms. 25OHD remained lower in children with T1DM after covariate adjustment. Children newly diagnosed with T1DM had lower 1,25(OH)2D [median (IQR)=89 (68-122) pmol/L] than controls [121 (108-159) pmol/L, p=0.03], or children with established diabetes [137 (113-153) pmol/L, p=0.01]. Children with T1DM have lower 25OHD than controls, even in an environment of abundant sunlight. Whether low vitamin D is a risk factor or consequence of T1DM is unknown. © 2012 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability for 301 acute and chronic diseases and injuries in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background Up-to-date evidence about levels and trends in disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and years lived with disability (YLDs) is an essential input into global, regional, and national health policies. In the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 (GBD 2013), we estimated these quantities for acute and chronic diseases and injuries for 188 countries between 1990 and 2013. Methods Estimates were calculated for disease and injury incidence, prevalence, and YLDs using GBD 2010 methods with some important refi nements. Results for incidence of acute disorders and prevalence of chronic disorders are new additions to the analysis. Key improvements include expansion to the cause and sequelae list, updated systematic reviews, use of detailed injury codes, improvements to the Bayesian meta-regression method (DisMod-MR), and use of severity splits for various causes. An index of data representativeness, showing data availability, was calculated for each cause and impairment during three periods globally and at the country level for 2013. In total, 35 620 distinct sources of data were used and documented to calculated estimates for 301 diseases and injuries and 2337 sequelae. The comorbidity simulation provides estimates for the number of sequelae, concurrently, by individuals by country, year, age, and sex. Disability weights were updated with the addition of new population-based survey data from four countries. Findings Disease and injury were highly prevalent; only a small fraction of individuals had no sequelae. Comorbidity rose substantially with age and in absolute terms from 1990 to 2013. Incidence of acute sequelae were predominantly infectious diseases and short-term injuries, with over 2 billion cases of upper respiratory infections and diarrhoeal disease episodes in 2013, with the notable exception of tooth pain due to permanent caries with more than 200 million incident cases in 2013. Conversely, leading chronic sequelae were largely attributable to non-communicable diseases, with prevalence estimates for asymptomatic permanent caries and tension-type headache of 2∙4 billion and 1∙6 billion, respectively. The distribution of the number of sequelae in populations varied widely across regions, with an expected relation between age and disease prevalence. YLDs for both sexes increased from 537∙6 million in 1990 to 764∙8 million in 2013 due to population growth and ageing, whereas the age-standardised rate decreased little from 114∙87 per 1000 people to 110∙31 per 1000 people between 1990 and 2013. Leading causes of YLDs included low back pain and major depressive disorder among the top ten causes of YLDs in every country. YLD rates per person, by major cause groups, indicated the main drivers of increases were due to musculoskeletal, mental, and substance use disorders, neurological disorders, and chronic respiratory diseases; however HIV/AIDS was a notable driver of increasing YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Also, the proportion of disability-adjusted life years due to YLDs increased globally from 21·1% in 1990 to 31·2% in 2013. Interpretation Ageing of the world���s population is leading to a substantial increase in the numbers of individuals with sequelae of diseases and injuries. Rates of YLDs are declining much more slowly than mortality rates. The non-fatal dimensions of disease and injury will require more and more attention from health systems. The transition to nonfatal outcomes as the dominant source of burden of disease is occurring rapidly outside of sub-Saharan Africa. Our results can guide future health initiatives through examination of epidemiological trends and a better understanding of variation across countries.

Localization of type 1 diabetes susceptibility to the MHC class I genes HLA-B and HLA-A

The major histocompatibility complex (MHC) on chromosome 6 is associated with susceptibility to more common diseases than any other region of the human genome, including almost all disorders classified as autoimmune. In type 1 diabetes the major genetic susceptibility determinants have been mapped to the MHC class II genes HLA-DQB1 and HLA-DRB1 (refs 1–3), but these genes cannot completely explain the association between type 1 diabetes and the MHC region4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11. Owing to the region's extreme gene density, the multiplicity of disease-associated alleles, strong associations between alleles, limited genotyping capability, and inadequate statistical approaches and sample sizes, which, and how many, loci within the MHC determine susceptibility remains unclear. Here, in several large type 1 diabetes data sets, we analyse a combined total of 1,729 polymorphisms, and apply statistical methods—recursive partitioning and regression...

Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 79 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks in 188 countries, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013

Background The Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factor study 2013 (GBD 2013) is the first of a series of annual updates of the GBD. Risk factor quantification, particularly of modifiable risk factors, can help to identify emerging threats to population health and opportunities for prevention. The GBD 2013 provides a timely opportunity to update the comparative risk assessment with new data for exposure, relative risks, and evidence on the appropriate counterfactual risk distribution. Methods Attributable deaths, years of life lost, years lived with disability, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) have been estimated for 79 risks or clusters of risks using the GBD 2010 methods. Risk–outcome pairs meeting explicit evidence criteria were assessed for 188 countries for the period 1990–2013 by age and sex using three inputs: risk exposure, relative risks, and the theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL). Risks are organised into a hierarchy with blocks of behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks at the first level of the hierarchy. The next level in the hierarchy includes nine clusters of related risks and two individual risks, with more detail provided at levels 3 and 4 of the hierarchy. Compared with GBD 2010, six new risk factors have been added: handwashing practices, occupational exposure to trichloroethylene, childhood wasting, childhood stunting, unsafe sex, and low glomerular filtration rate. For most risks, data for exposure were synthesised with a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR 2.0, or spatial-temporal Gaussian process regression. Relative risks were based on meta-regressions of published cohort and intervention studies. Attributable burden for clusters of risks and all risks combined took into account evidence on the mediation of some risks such as high body-mass index (BMI) through other risks such as high systolic blood pressure and high cholesterol. Findings All risks combined account for 57·2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 55·8–58·5) of deaths and 41·6% (40·1–43·0) of DALYs. Risks quantified account for 87·9% (86·5–89·3) of cardiovascular disease DALYs, ranging to a low of 0% for neonatal disorders and neglected tropical diseases and malaria. In terms of global DALYs in 2013, six risks or clusters of risks each caused more than 5% of DALYs: dietary risks accounting for 11·3 million deaths and 241·4 million DALYs, high systolic blood pressure for 10·4 million deaths and 208·1 million DALYs, child and maternal malnutrition for 1·7 million deaths and 176·9 million DALYs, tobacco smoke for 6·1 million deaths and 143·5 million DALYs, air pollution for 5·5 million deaths and 141·5 million DALYs, and high BMI for 4·4 million deaths and 134·0 million DALYs. Risk factor patterns vary across regions and countries and with time. In sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risk factors are child and maternal malnutrition, unsafe sex, and unsafe water, sanitation, and handwashing. In women, in nearly all countries in the Americas, north Africa, and the Middle East, and in many other high-income countries, high BMI is the leading risk factor, with high systolic blood pressure as the leading risk in most of Central and Eastern Europe and south and east Asia. For men, high systolic blood pressure or tobacco use are the leading risks in nearly all high-income countries, in north Africa and the Middle East, Europe, and Asia. For men and women, unsafe sex is the leading risk in a corridor from Kenya to South Africa. Interpretation Behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks can explain half of global mortality and more than one-third of global DALYs providing many opportunities for prevention. Of the larger risks, the attributable burden of high BMI has increased in the past 23 years. In view of the prominence of behavioural risk factors, behavioural and social science research on interventions for these risks should be strengthened. Many prevention and primary care policy options are available now to act on key risks.

Genetic control of bone density and turnover: Role of the collagen 1α1, estrogen receptor, and vitamin D receptor genes

Genetic factors are known to influence both the peak bone mass and probably the rate of change in bone density. A range of regulatory and structural genes has been proposed to be involved including collagen 1α1 (COL1A1), the estrogen receptor (ER), and the vitamin D receptor (VDR), but the actual genes involved are uncertain. We therefore studied the role of the COL1A1 and VDR loci in control of bone density by linkage in 45 dizygotic twin pairs and 29 nuclear families comprising 120 individuals. The influences on bone density of polymorphisms of COL1A1, VDR, and ER were studied by association both cross-sectionally and longitudinally in 193 elderly postmenopausal women (average age, 69 years) over a mean follow-up time of 6.3 years. Weak linkage of the COL1A1 locus with bone density was observed in both twins and families (p = 0.02 in both data sets), confirming previous observations of linkage of this locus with bone density. Association between the MscI polymorphism of COL1A1 and rate of lumbar spine bone loss was observed with significant gene-environment interaction related to dietary calcium intake (p = 0.0006). In the lowest tertile of dietary calcium intake, carriers of "s" alleles lost more bone than "SS" homozygotes (p = 0.01), whereas the opposite was observed in the highest dietary calcium intake (p = 0.003). Association also was observed between rate of bone loss at both the femoral neck and the lumbar spine and the TaqI VDR polymorphism (p = 0.03). This association was strongest in those in the lowest tertile of calcium intake, also suggesting the presence of gene-environment interaction involving dietary calcium and VDR, influencing bone turnover. No significant association was observed between the PvuII ER polymorphism alone or in combination with VDR or COL1A1 genotypes, with either bone density or its rate of change. These data support the involvement of COL1A1 in determination of bone density and the interaction of both COL1A1 and VDR with calcium intake in regulation of change of bone density over time.

Risk analysis of prostate cancer in PRACTICAL, a multinational consortium, using 25 known prostate cancer susceptibility loci

Background Genome-wide association studies have identified multiple genetic variants associated with prostate cancer risk which explain a substantial proportion of familial relative risk. These variants can be used to stratify individuals by their risk of prostate cancer. Methods We genotyped 25 prostate cancer susceptibility loci in 40,414 individuals and derived a polygenic risk score (PRS).We estimated empirical odds ratios (OR) for prostate cancer associated with different risk strata defined by PRS and derived agespecific absolute risks of developing prostate cancer by PRS stratum and family history. Results The prostate cancer risk for men in the top 1% of the PRS distribution was 30.6 (95% CI, 16.4-57.3) fold compared with men in the bottom 1%, and 4.2 (95% CI, 3.2-5.5) fold compared with the median risk. The absolute risk of prostate cancer by age of 85 years was 65.8% for a man with family history in the top 1% of the PRS distribution, compared with 3.7% for a man in the bottom 1%. The PRS was only weakly correlated with serum PSA level (correlation = 0.09). Conclusions Risk profiling can identify men at substantially increased or reduced risk of prostate cancer. The effect size, measured by OR per unit PRS, was higher in men at younger ages and in men with family history of prostate cancer. Incorporating additional newly identified loci into a PRS should improve the predictive value of risk profiles. Impact:We demonstrate that the risk profiling based on SNPs can identify men at substantially increased or reduced risk that could have useful implications for targeted prevention and screening programs.