Examining the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in the Asia-Pacific region

Dengue fever (DF) is a serious public health concern in many parts of the world. An increase in DF incidence has been observed globally over the past decades. Multiple factors including urbanisation, increased international travels and global climate change are thought to be responsible for increased DF. However, little research has been conducted in the Asia-Pacific region about the impact of these changes on dengue transmission. The overarching aim of this thesis is to explore the spatiotemporal pattern of DF transmission in the Asia-Pacific region and project the future risk of DF attributable to climate change. Annual data of DF outbreaks for sixteen countries in the Asia-Pacific region over the last fifty years were used in this study. The results show that the geographic range of DF in this region increased significantly over the study period. Thailand, Vietnam and Laos were identified as the highest risk areas and there was a southward expansion observed in the transmission pattern of DF which might have originated from Philippines or Thailand. Additionally, the detailed DF data were obtained and the space-time clustering of DF transmission was examined in Bangladesh. Monthly DF data were used for the entire country at the district level during 2000-2009. Dhaka district was identified as the most likely DF cluster in Bangladesh and several districts of the southern part of Bangladesh were identified as secondary clusters in the years 2000-2002. In order to examine the association between meteorological factors and DF transmission and to project the future risk of DF using different climate change scenarios, the climate-DF relationship was examined in Dhaka, Bangladesh. The results show that climate variability (particularly maximum temperature and relative humidity) was positively associated with DF transmission in Dhaka. The effects of climate variability were observed at a lag of four months which might help to potentially control and prevent DF outbreaks through effective vector management and community education. Based on the quantitative assessment of the climate-DF relationship, projected climate change will likely increase mosquito abundance and activity and DF in this area. Assuming a temperature increase of 3.3oC without any adaptation measures and significant changes in socio-economic conditions, the consequence will be devastating, with a projected annual increase of 16,030 cases in Dhaka, Bangladesh by the end of this century. Therefore, public health authorities need to be prepared for likely increase of DF transmission in this region. This study adds to the literature on the recent trends of DF and impacts of climate change on DF transmission. These findings may have significant public health implications for the control and prevention of DF, particularly in the Asia- Pacific region.

How approach and avoidance constructs of personality and trait emotional intelligence predict core human values

In this paper we focus specifically on explaining variation in core human values, and suggest that individual differences in values can be partially explained by personality traits and the perceived ability to manage emotions in the self and others (i.e. trait emotional intelligence). A sample of 209 university students was used to test hypotheses regarding several proposed direct and indirect relationships between personality traits, trait emotional intelligence and values. Consistent with the hypotheses, Harm Avoidance and Novelty Seeking were found to directly predict Hedonism, Conformity, and Stimulation. Harm Avoidance was also found to indirectly predict these values through the mediating effects of key subscales of trait emotional intelligence. Novelty Seeking was not found to be an indirect predictor of values. Results have implications for our understanding of the relationship between personality, trait emotional intelligence and values, and suggest a common basis in terms of approach and avoidance pathways.

Projecting the impact of climate change on dengue transmission in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Weather variables, mainly temperature and humidity influence vectors, viruses, human biology, ecology and consequently the intensity and distribution of the vector-borne diseases. There is evidence that warmer temperature due to climate change will influence the dengue transmission. However, long term scenario-based projections are yet to be developed. Here, we assessed the impact of weather variability on dengue transmission in a megacity of Dhaka, Bangladesh and projected the future dengue risk attributable to climate change. Our results show that weather variables particularly temperature and humidity were positively associated with dengue transmission. The effects of weather variables were observed at a lag of four months. We projected that assuming a temperature increase of 3.3 °C without any adaptation measure and changes in socio-economic condition, there will be a projected increase of 16,030 dengue cases in Dhaka by the end of this century. This information might be helpful for the public health authorities to prepare for the likely increase of dengue due to climate change. The modelling framework used in this study may be applicable to dengue projection in other cities.

The CLIMATE schools combined study : a cluster randomised controlled trial of a universal Internet-based prevention program for youth substance misuse, depression and anxiety

Background Anxiety, depressive and substance use disorders account for three quarters of the disability attributed to mental disorders and frequently co-occur. While programs for the prevention and reduction of symptoms associated with (i) substance use and (ii) mental health disorders exist, research is yet to determine if a combined approach is more effective. This paper describes the study protocol of a cluster randomised controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of the CLIMATE Schools Combined intervention, a universal approach to preventing substance use and mental health problems among adolescents. Methods/design Participants will consist of approximately 8400 students aged 13 to 14-years-old from 84 secondary schools in New South Wales, Western Australia and Queensland, Australia. The schools will be cluster randomised to one of four groups; (i) CLIMATE Schools Combined intervention; (ii) CLIMATE Schools - Substance Use; (iii) CLIMATE Schools - Mental Health, or (iv) Control (Health and Physical Education as usual). The primary outcomes of the trial will be the uptake and harmful use of alcohol and other drugs, mental health symptomatology and anxiety, depression and substance use knowledge. Secondary outcomes include substance use related harms, self-efficacy to resist peer pressure, general disability, and truancy. The link between personality and substance use will also be examined. Discussion Compared to students who receive the universal CLIMATE Schools - Substance Use, or CLIMATE Schools - Mental Health or the Control condition (who received usual Health and Physical Education), we expect students who receive the CLIMATE Schools Combined intervention to show greater delays to the initiation of substance use, reductions in substance use and mental health symptoms, and increased substance use and mental health knowledge

Perceptions of climate change and trust in information providers in rural Australia

Disagreement within the global science community about the certainty and causes of climate change has led the general public to question what to believe and who to trust on matters related to this issue. This paper reports on qualitative research undertaken with Australian residents from two rural areas to explore their perceptions of climate change and trust in information providers. While overall, residents tended to agree that climate change is a reality, perceptions varied in terms of its causes and how best to address it. Politicians, government, and the media were described as untrustworthy sources of information about climate change, with independent scientists being the most trusted. The vested interests of information providers appeared to be a key reason for their distrust. The findings highlight the importance of improved transparency and consultation with the public when communicating information about climate change and related policies.

Impact of climate variability on Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum malaria in Yunnan Province, China

BACKGROUND Malaria remains a public health problem in the remote and poor area of Yunnan Province, China. Yunnan faces an increasing risk of imported malaria infections from Mekong river neighboring countries. This study aimed to identify the high risk area of malaria transmission in Yunnan Province, and to estimate the effects of climatic variability on the transmission of Plasmodium vivax and Plasmodium falciparum in the identified area. METHODS We identified spatial clusters of malaria cases using spatial cluster analysis at a county level in Yunnan Province, 2005-2010, and estimated the weekly effects of climatic factors on P. vivax and P. falciparum based on a dataset of daily malaria cases and climatic variables. A distributed lag nonlinear model was used to estimate the impact of temperature, relative humidity and rainfall up to 10-week lags on both types of malaria parasite after adjusting for seasonal and long-term effects. RESULTS The primary cluster area was identified along the China-Myanmar border in western Yunnan. A 1°C increase in minimum temperature was associated with a lag 4 to 9 weeks relative risk (RR), with the highest effect at lag 7 weeks for P. vivax (RR = 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.05) and 6 weeks for P. falciparum (RR = 1.07; 95% CI, 1.04, 1.11); a 10-mm increment in rainfall was associated with RRs of lags 2-4 weeks and 9-10 weeks, with the highest effect at 3 weeks for both P. vivax (RR = 1.03; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.04) and P. falciparum (RR = 1.04; 95% CI, 1.01, 1.06); and the RRs with a 10% rise in relative humidity were significant from lag 3 to 8 weeks with the highest RR of 1.24 (95% CI, 1.10, 1.41) for P. vivax at 5-week lag. CONCLUSIONS Our findings suggest that the China-Myanmar border is a high risk area for malaria transmission. Climatic factors appeared to be among major determinants of malaria transmission in this area. The estimated lag effects for the association between temperature and malaria are consistent with the life cycles of both mosquito vector and malaria parasite. These findings will be useful for malaria surveillance-response systems in the Mekong river region.

Forecasting the future risk of Barmah Forest Virus disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia

BACKGROUND Mosquito-borne diseases are climate sensitive and there has been increasing concern over the impact of climate change on future disease risk. This paper projected the potential future risk of Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. METHODS/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS We obtained data on notified BFV cases, climate (maximum and minimum temperature and rainfall), socio-economic and tidal conditions for current period 2000-2008 for coastal regions in Queensland. Grid-data on future climate projections for 2025, 2050 and 2100 were also obtained. Logistic regression models were built to forecast the otential risk of BFV disease distribution under existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions. The model was applied to estimate the potential geographic distribution of BFV outbreaks under climate change scenarios. The predictive model had good model accuracy, sensitivity and specificity. Maps on potential risk of future BFV disease indicated that disease would vary significantly across coastal regions in Queensland by 2100 due to marked differences in future rainfall and temperature projections. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE We conclude that the results of this study demonstrate that the future risk of BFV disease would vary across coastal regions in Queensland. These results may be helpful for public health decision making towards developing effective risk management strategies for BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

A multilevel investigation into the effects of the philosophical community of inquiry on 6th grade students' reading comprehension, interest in maths, self-esteem, pro-social behaviours and emotional well-being

This investigation measured the effects of a one year participation in an Australian Philosophical Community of Inquiry program on 280 sixth grade students' reading comprehension, interest in maths, self-esteem, social behaviours, and emotional well-being. A multilevel model for change was used to detect differences in the response variables, between a quasi-experimental group and comparison group. Results showed that, for participants, reading comprehension significantly increased while interest in maths decreased. No differences between the groups were found for pro-social behaviour and emotional well-being. Self esteem, however, declined for participants while nonparticipants' self esteem increased.

Dimensions and reliability of a hospital safety climate questionnaire in Chinese health-care practice

The aim of the current study was to examine the dimensions and reliability of a hospital safety climate questionnaire in Chinese health-care practice. To achieve this, a cross-sectional survey of health-care professionals was undertaken at a university teaching hospital in Shandong province, China. Our survey instrument demonstrated very high internal consistency, comparing well with previous research in this field conducted in other countries. Factor analysis highlighted four key dimensions of safety climate, which centred on employee personal protection, employee interactions, safetyrelated housekeeping and time pressures. Overall, this study suggests that hospital safety climate represents an important aspect of health-care practice in contemporary China.

The role of common but differentiated responsibility in the 2020 climate regime

The principle of common but differentiated responsibility (CBDR) will play a role in the 2020 Climate Regime. This Article starts by examining differential treatment within the international legal order, finding that it is ethically and practically difficult to implement an international climate instrument based on formal equality. There is evidence of state parties accepting differential responsibilities in a number of areas within the international legal order and the embedding of CBDR in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), means that that differential commitments will lie at the heart of the 2020 climate regime. The UNFCCC applies the implementation method of differentiation, while the Kyoto Protocol applies both the obligation and implementation method of differentiation. It is suggested that the implementation model will be the differentiation model retained in the 2020 climate agreement. The Parties’ submissions under the Durban Platform are considered in order to gain an understanding of their positions on CBDR. While there are areas of contention including the role of principles in shaping obligations and the ongoing legal status of Annex I and Non-Annex I distinction, there is broad consensus among the parties in favour of differentiation by implementation with developed and major economies undertaking Quantified Emission Limitation and Reduction Objectives (economy wide targets) and developing countries that are not major economies undertaking sectoral targets.

Hebbian reverberations in emotional memory micro circuits

The study of memory in most behavioral paradigms, including emotional memory paradigms, has focused on the feed forward components that underlie Hebb’s first postulate, associative synaptic plasticity. Hebb’s second postulate argues that activated ensembles of neurons reverberate in order to provide temporal coordination of different neural signals, and thereby facilitate coincidence detection. Recent evidence from our groups has suggested that the lateral amygdala (LA) contains recurrent microcircuits and that these may reverberate. Additionally this reverberant activity is precisely timed with latencies that would facilitate coincidence detection between cortical and sub cortical afferents to the LA.Thus, recent data at the microcircuit level in the amygdala provide some physiological evidence in support of the second Hebbian postulate.

E-motion diaries : blogging emotional responses to online learning in higher education

Emotions are inherently social, and are central to learning, online interaction and literacy practices (Shen, Wang, & Shen, 2009). Demonstrating the dynamic sociality of literacy practice, we used e-motion diaries or web logs to explore the emotional states of pre-service high school teachers’ experiences of online learning activities. This is because the methods of communication used by university educators in online learning and writing environments play an important role in fulfilling students’ need for social interaction and inclusion (McInnerney & Roberts, 2004). Feelings of isolation and frustration are common emotions experienced by students in many online learning environments, and are associated with the success or failure of online interactions and learning (Su, et al., 2005). The purpose of the study was to answer the research question: What are the trajectories of pre-service teachers’ emotional states during online learning experiences? This is important because emotions are central to learning, and the current trend toward Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) needs research about students’ emotional connections in online learning environments (Kop, 2011). The project was conducted with a graduate class of 64 high school science pre-service teachers in Science Education Curriculum Studies in a large Australian university, including males and females from a variety of cultural backgrounds, aged 22-55 years. Online activities involved the students watching a series of streamed live lectures for the first 5 weeks providing a varied set of learning experiences, such as viewing science demonstrations (e.g., modeling the use of discrepant events). Each week, students provided feedback on learning by writing and posting an e-motion diary or web log about their emotional response. Students answered the question: What emotions did you experience during this learning experience? The descriptive data set included 284 online posts, with students contributing multiple entries. Linguistic appraisal theory, following Martin and White (2005), was used to regroup the 22 different discrete emotions reported by students into the six main affect groups – three positive and three negative: unhappiness/happiness, insecurity/security, and dissatisfaction/satisfaction. The findings demonstrated that the pre-service teachers’ emotional responses to the streamed lectures tended towards happiness, security, and satisfaction within the typology of affect groups – un/happiness, in/security, and dis/satisfaction. Fewer students reported that the streamed lectures triggered negative feelings of frustration, powerlessness, and inadequacy, and when this occurred, it often pertained to expectations of themselves in the forthcoming field experience in classrooms. Exceptions to this pattern of responses occurred in relation to the fifth streamed lecture presented in a non-interactive slideshow format that compressed a large amount of content. Many students responded to the content of the lecture rather than providing their emotional responses to this lecture, and one student felt “completely disengaged”. The social practice of online writing as blogs enabled the students to articulate their emotions. The findings primarily contribute new understanding about students' wide range of differing emotional states, both positive and negative, experienced in response to streamed live lectures and other learning activities in higher education external coursework. The is important because the majority of previous studies have focused on particular negative emotions, such as anxiety in test taking. The research also highlights the potentials of appraisal theory for studying human emotions in online learning and writing.

Urban Food Security, Urban Resilience and Climate Change

The growing importance of logistics in increasingly globalised production and consumption systems strengthens the case for explicit consideration of the climate risks that may impact on the operation of ports in the future, as well as the formulation of adaptation responses that act to enhance their resilience. Within a logistics chain, seaports are functional nodes of significant strategic importance, and are considered as critical gateways linking local and national supply chains to global markets. However, they are more likely to be exposed to vagaries of climate-related extreme events due to their coastal locations. As such, they need to be adaptive and respond to the projected impacts of climate change, in particular extreme weather events. These impacts are especially important in the logistics context as they could result in varying degrees of business interruption; including business closure in the worst case scenario. Since trans-shipment of freight for both the import and export of goods and raw materials has a significant impact on Australia’s sustained economic growth it was considered important to undertake a study of port functional assets, to assess their vulnerability to climate change, to model the potential impacts of climate-related extreme events, and to highlight possible adaptation responses.

The Impacts of Climate Change on Australia’s Food Production and Export

The global food system is undergoing unprecedented change. With population increases, demands for food globally will continue to rise at the same time that agricultural environments are compromised through urban encroachment, climate change and environmental degradation. Australia has long identified itself as an agricultural exporting nation—but what will its capacity be in feeding an increasing global population as it also comes to terms with extreme climatic events such as the floods, fires and droughts, and reduced water availability, experienced in recent decades? This chapter traces the history of Australian agricultural exports and evaluates its food production and export capacity against scientific predictions of climate change impacts. With the federal government forecasting declines in the production of wheat, beef, dairy and sugar, Australia’s key export commodities may well be compromised. Calls to produce more food using new technologies are likely to generate significant environmental problems. Yet, a radical reconfiguration of Australian agriculture which incorporates alternative approaches, such as agro-ecology, is rarely considered by government and industry.

Climate Change and the Resilience of Commodity Food Production in Australia

The current view of Australian state and national governments about the effects of climate change on agriculture is that farmers – through the adoption of mitigation and adaptation strategies – will remain resilient, and agricultural production will continue to expand. The assumption is that neoliberalism will provide the best ‘free market’ options for climate change mitigation and adaptation in farming. In contrast, we argue that neoliberalism will increase the move towards productivis (‘high-tech’) agriculture – the very system that has caused major environmental damage to the Australian continent. High-tech farming is highly dependent upon access to water and fossil fuels, both of which would appear to be the main limits to production in future decades. Productivist agriculture is a system highly reliant upon fertilizers and fuels that are derived from the petrochemical industry, and are currently increasing in cost as the price of oil increases.