The dynamics and performance of the building and construction product system

During 1999 the Department of Industry, Science and Resources (ISR) published 4 research reports it had commissioned from the Australian Expert Group in Industry Studies (AEGIS), a research centre of the University of Western Sydney, Macarthur. ISR will shortly publish the fifth and final report in this series. The five reports were commissioned by the Department, as part of the Building and Construction Action Agenda process, to investigate the dynamics and performance of the sector, particularly in relation its innovative capacity. Professor Jane Marceau, PVCR at the University of Western Sydney and Director of AEGIS, led the research team. Dr Karen Manley was the researcher and joint author on three of the five reports. This paper outlines the approach and key findings of each of the five reports. The reports examined 5 key elements of the ‘building and construction product system’. The term ‘product system’ reflects the very broad range of industries and players we consider to contribute to the performance of the building and construction industries. The term ‘product system’ also highlights our focus on the systemic qualities of the building and construction industries. We were most interested in the inter-relationships between key segments and players and how these impacted on the innovation potential of the product system. The ‘building and construction product system’ is hereafter referred to as ‘the industry’ for ease of presentation. All the reports are based, at least in part, on an interviewing or survey research phase which involved gathering data from public and private sector players nationally. The first report ‘maps’ the industry to identify and describe its key elements and the inter-relationships between them. The second report focuses specifically on the linkages between public-sector research organisations and firms in the industry. The third report examines the conditions surrounding the emergence of new businesses in the industry. The fourth report examines how manufacturing businesses are responding to customer demands for ‘total solutions’ to their building and construction needs, by providing various services to clients. The fifth report investigates the capacity of the industry to encourage and undertake energy efficient building design and construction.

Improving accuracy and intelligibility of decisions

Intelligible and accurate risk-based decision-making requires a complex balance of information from different sources, appropriate statistical analysis of this information and consequent intelligent inference and decisions made on the basis of these analyses. Importantly, this requires an explicit acknowledgement of uncertainty in the inputs and outputs of the statistical model. The aim of this paper is to progress a discussion of these issues in the context of several motivating problems related to the wider scope of agricultural production. These problems include biosecurity surveillance design, pest incursion, environmental monitoring and import risk assessment. The information to be integrated includes observational and experimental data, remotely sensed data and expert information. We describe our efforts in addressing these problems using Bayesian models and Bayesian networks. These approaches provide a coherent and transparent framework for modelling complex systems, combining the different information sources, and allowing for uncertainty in inputs and outputs. While the theory underlying Bayesian modelling has a long and well established history, its application is only now becoming more possible for complex problems, due to increased availability of methodological and computational tools. Of course, there are still hurdles and constraints, which we also address through sharing our endeavours and experiences.

GameFlow : a model for evaluating player enjoyment in games

Although player enjoyment is central to computer games, there is currently no accepted model of player enjoyment in games. There are many heuristics in the literature, based on elements such as the game interface, mechanics, gameplay, and narrative. However, there is a need to integrate these heuristics into a validated model that can be used to design, evaluate, and understand enjoyment in games. We have drawn together the various heuristics into a concise model of enjoyment in games that is structured by flow. Flow, a widely accepted model of enjoyment, includes eight elements that, we found, encompass the various heuristics from the literature. Our new model, GameFlow, consists of eight elements -- concentration, challenge, skills, control, clear goals, feedback, immersion, and social interaction. Each element includes a set of criteria for achieving enjoyment in games. An initial investigation and validation of the GameFlow model was carried out by conducting expert reviews of two real-time strategy games, one high-rating and one low-rating, using the GameFlow criteria. The result was a deeper understanding of enjoyment in real-time strategy games and the identification of the strengths and weaknesses of the GameFlow model as an evaluation tool. The GameFlow criteria were able to successfully distinguish between the high-rated and low-rated games and identify why one succeeded and the other failed. We concluded that the GameFlow model can be used in its current form to review games; further work will provide tools for designing and evaluating enjoyment in games.

Addressing sustainable living using a collaborative approach and multi-disciplinary techniques

In order to achieve meaningful reductions in individual ecological footprints, individuals must dramatically alter their day to day behaviours. Effective interventions will need to be evidence based and there is a necessity for the rapid transfer or communication of information from the point of research, into policy and practice. A number of health disciplines, including psychology and public health, share a common mission to promote health and well-being and it is becoming clear that the most practical pathway to achieving this mission is through interdisciplinary collaboration. This paper argues that an interdisciplinary collaborative approach will facilitate research that results in the rapid transfer of findings into policy and practice. The application of this approach is described in relation to the Green Living project which explored the psycho-social predictors of environmentally friendly behaviour. Following a qualitative pilot study, and in consultation with an expert panel comprising academics, industry professionals and government representatives, a self-administered mail survey was distributed to a random sample of 3000 residents of Brisbane and Moreton Bay (Queensland, Australia). The Green Living survey explored specific beliefs which included attitudes, norms, perceived control, intention and behaviour, as well as a number of other constructs such as environmental concern and altruism. This research has two beneficial outcomes. First, it will inform a practical model for predicting sustainable living behaviours and a number of local councils have already expressed an interest in making use of the results as part of their ongoing community engagement programs. Second, it provides an example of how a collaborative interdisciplinary project can provide a more comprehensive approach to research than can be accomplished by a single disciplinary project.

A new and efficient intelligent collaboration scheme for fashion design

Technology-mediated collaboration process has been extensively studied for over a decade. Most applications with collaboration concepts reported in the literature focus on enhancing efficiency and effectiveness of the decision-making processes in objective and well-structured workflows. However, relatively few previous studies have investigated the applications of collaboration schemes to problems with subjective and unstructured nature. In this paper, we explore a new intelligent collaboration scheme for fashion design which, by nature, relies heavily on human judgment and creativity. Techniques such as multicriteria decision making, fuzzy logic, and artificial neural network (ANN) models are employed. Industrial data sets are used for the analysis. Our experimental results suggest that the proposed scheme exhibits significant improvement over the traditional method in terms of the time–cost effectiveness, and a company interview with design professionals has confirmed its effectiveness and significance.

Development and validation of a pregnancy symptoms inventory

BACKGROUND. Physical symptoms are common in pregnancy and are predominantly associated with normal physiological changes. These symptoms have a social and economic cost, leading to absenteeism from work and additional medical interventions. There is currently no simple method for identifying common pregnancy related problems in the antenatal period. A validated tool, for use by pregnancy care providers would be useful. AIM: The aim of the project was to develop and validate a Pregnancy Symptoms Inventory for use by healthcare professionals (HCPs). METHODS: A list of symptoms was generated via expert consultation with midwives and obstetrician gynaecologists. Focus groups were conducted with pregnant women in their first, second or third trimester. The inventory was then tested for face validity and piloted for readability and comprehension. For test-re-test reliability, it was administered to the same women 2 to 3 days apart. Finally, outpatient midwives trialled the inventory for 1 month and rated its usefulness on a 10cm visual analogue scale (VAS). The number of referrals to other health care professionals was recorded during this month. RESULTS: Expert consultation and focus group discussions led to the generation of a 41-item inventory. Following face validity and readability testing, several items were modified. Individual item test re-test reliability was between .51 to 1 with the majority (34 items) scoring .0.70. During the testing phase, 211 surveys were collected in the 1 month trial. Tiredness (45.5%), poor sleep (27.5%) back pain (19.5%) and nausea (12.6%) were experienced often. Among the women surveyed, 16.2% claimed to sometimes or often be incontinent. Referrals to the incontinence nurse increased > 8 fold during the study period. The median rating by midwives of the ‘usefulness’ of the inventory was 8.4 (range 0.9 to 10). CONCLUSIONS: The Pregnancy Symptoms Inventory (PSI) was well accepted by women in the 1 month trial and may be a useful tool for pregnancy care providers and aids clinicians in early detection and subsequent treatment of symptoms. It shows promise for use in the research community for assessing the impact of lifestyle intervention in pregnancy.

Asset life prediction and maintenance decision-making using a non-linear non-Gaussian state space model

Estimating and predicting degradation processes of engineering assets is crucial for reducing the cost and insuring the productivity of enterprises. Assisted by modern condition monitoring (CM) technologies, most asset degradation processes can be revealed by various degradation indicators extracted from CM data. Maintenance strategies developed using these degradation indicators (i.e. condition-based maintenance) are more cost-effective, because unnecessary maintenance activities are avoided when an asset is still in a decent health state. A practical difficulty in condition-based maintenance (CBM) is that degradation indicators extracted from CM data can only partially reveal asset health states in most situations. Underestimating this uncertainty in relationships between degradation indicators and health states can cause excessive false alarms or failures without pre-alarms. The state space model provides an efficient approach to describe a degradation process using these indicators that can only partially reveal health states. However, existing state space models that describe asset degradation processes largely depend on assumptions such as, discrete time, discrete state, linearity, and Gaussianity. The discrete time assumption requires that failures and inspections only happen at fixed intervals. The discrete state assumption entails discretising continuous degradation indicators, which requires expert knowledge and often introduces additional errors. The linear and Gaussian assumptions are not consistent with nonlinear and irreversible degradation processes in most engineering assets. This research proposes a Gamma-based state space model that does not have discrete time, discrete state, linear and Gaussian assumptions to model partially observable degradation processes. Monte Carlo-based algorithms are developed to estimate model parameters and asset remaining useful lives. In addition, this research also develops a continuous state partially observable semi-Markov decision process (POSMDP) to model a degradation process that follows the Gamma-based state space model and is under various maintenance strategies. Optimal maintenance strategies are obtained by solving the POSMDP. Simulation studies through the MATLAB are performed; case studies using the data from an accelerated life test of a gearbox and a liquefied natural gas industry are also conducted. The results show that the proposed Monte Carlo-based EM algorithm can estimate model parameters accurately. The results also show that the proposed Gamma-based state space model have better fitness result than linear and Gaussian state space models when used to process monotonically increasing degradation data in the accelerated life test of a gear box. Furthermore, both simulation studies and case studies show that the prediction algorithm based on the Gamma-based state space model can identify the mean value and confidence interval of asset remaining useful lives accurately. In addition, the simulation study shows that the proposed maintenance strategy optimisation method based on the POSMDP is more flexible than that assumes a predetermined strategy structure and uses the renewal theory. Moreover, the simulation study also shows that the proposed maintenance optimisation method can obtain more cost-effective strategies than a recently published maintenance strategy optimisation method by optimising the next maintenance activity and the waiting time till the next maintenance activity simultaneously.

Train schedule coordination at an interchange station through Agent negotiation

In open railway markets, coordinating train schedules at an interchange station requires negotiation between two independent train operating companies to resolve their operational conflicts. This paper models the stakeholders as software agents and proposes an agent negotiation model to study their interaction. Three negotiation strategies have been devised to represent the possible objectives of the stakeholders, and they determine the behavior in proposing offers to the proponent. Empirical simulation results confirm that the use of the proposed negotiation strategies lead to outcomes that are consistent with the objectives of the stakeholders.

User profiling based on folksonomy information in Web 2.0 for personalized recommender systems

Information overload has become a serious issue for web users. Personalisation can provide effective solutions to overcome this problem. Recommender systems are one popular personalisation tool to help users deal with this issue. As the base of personalisation, the accuracy and efficiency of web user profiling affects the performances of recommender systems and other personalisation systems greatly. In Web 2.0, the emerging user information provides new possible solutions to profile users. Folksonomy or tag information is a kind of typical Web 2.0 information. Folksonomy implies the users‘ topic interests and opinion information. It becomes another source of important user information to profile users and to make recommendations. However, since tags are arbitrary words given by users, folksonomy contains a lot of noise such as tag synonyms, semantic ambiguities and personal tags. Such noise makes it difficult to profile users accurately or to make quality recommendations. This thesis investigates the distinctive features and multiple relationships of folksonomy and explores novel approaches to solve the tag quality problem and profile users accurately. Harvesting the wisdom of crowds and experts, three new user profiling approaches are proposed: folksonomy based user profiling approach, taxonomy based user profiling approach, hybrid user profiling approach based on folksonomy and taxonomy. The proposed user profiling approaches are applied to recommender systems to improve their performances. Based on the generated user profiles, the user and item based collaborative filtering approaches, combined with the content filtering methods, are proposed to make recommendations. The proposed new user profiling and recommendation approaches have been evaluated through extensive experiments. The effectiveness evaluation experiments were conducted on two real world datasets collected from Amazon.com and CiteULike websites. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed user profiling and recommendation approaches outperform those related state-of-the-art approaches. In addition, this thesis proposes a parallel, scalable user profiling implementation approach based on advanced cloud computing techniques such as Hadoop, MapReduce and Cascading. The scalability evaluation experiments were conducted on a large scaled dataset collected from Del.icio.us website. This thesis contributes to effectively use the wisdom of crowds and expert to help users solve information overload issues through providing more accurate, effective and efficient user profiling and recommendation approaches. It also contributes to better usages of taxonomy information given by experts and folksonomy information contributed by users in Web 2.0.

Improving team dynamics and innovation : the “Aspect Design” approach applied to interaction design

Interaction Design is a fast developing branch of Industrial Design. The availability of cheap microprocessors and sensor electronics allow interactions between people and products that were until recently impossible. This has added additional layers of complexity to the design process. Novice designers find it difficult to effectively juggle these complexities and typically tend to focus on one aspect at a time. They also tend to take a linear, step-by-step approach to the design process in contrast to expert designers who pursue “parallel lines of thought” whilst simultaneously co-evolving both problem and solution. (Lawson, 1993) This paper explores an approach that encourages designers (in this case novice designers) to take a parallel rather than linear approach to the design process. It also addresses the problem of social loafing that tends to occur in team activities.

Prognostic modelling options for remaining useful life estimation by industry

Over recent years a significant amount of research has been undertaken to develop prognostic models that can be used to predict the remaining useful life of engineering assets. Implementations by industry have only had limited success. By design, models are subject to specific assumptions and approximations, some of which are mathematical, while others relate to practical implementation issues such as the amount of data required to validate and verify a proposed model. Therefore, appropriate model selection for successful practical implementation requires not only a mathematical understanding of each model type, but also an appreciation of how a particular business intends to utilise a model and its outputs. This paper discusses business issues that need to be considered when selecting an appropriate modelling approach for trial. It also presents classification tables and process flow diagrams to assist industry and research personnel select appropriate prognostic models for predicting the remaining useful life of engineering assets within their specific business environment. The paper then explores the strengths and weaknesses of the main prognostics model classes to establish what makes them better suited to certain applications than to others and summarises how each have been applied to engineering prognostics. Consequently, this paper should provide a starting point for young researchers first considering options for remaining useful life prediction. The models described in this paper are Knowledge-based (expert and fuzzy), Life expectancy (stochastic and statistical), Artificial Neural Networks, and Physical models.

Clinical education for nephrology nurse practitioner candidates in Australia : a consensus statement

Objectives: To develop recommendations for the clinical education required to prepare Australian Nurse Practitioner candidates for advanced and extended practice in nephrology settings. Methods: Using the Delphi research technique a consensus statement was developed over a nine month period. All endorsed and candidate Nephrology Nurse Practitioners (NNP) were invited to participate as the expert panel. The Delphi research technique uses a systematic and iterative process. The expert panel were asked to generate a list of items which were then circulated to all NNPs. They were asked to determine their degree of agreement or disagreement with each statement using a 5-point Likert scale There was opportunity for free-text comments to be provided if desired. Results from each round were collated; the document was refined and circulated to the experts for a subsequent round. Consensus was demonstrated after three Delphi rounds. Results: The consensus statement comprises four components explaining the role and membership of the mentorship team, the setting and location of NNP clinical education, learning strategies to support the NNP, and outcomes of NNP clinical education. Demographic questions in the final survey revealed information about the qualifications, years of experience, and practice location of Australian NNPs. Conclusions: The consensus statement is not prescriptive but it will inform NNP candidates, university course providers and mentors about the expected extended nephrology specific clinical education that will enable the NNP to provide advanced nursing care for patients regardless of the stage of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and the practice setting.

Multi-step ahead direct prediction for the machine condition prognosis using regression trees and neuro-fuzzy systems

This paper presents an approach to predict the operating conditions of machine based on classification and regression trees (CART) and adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in association with direct prediction strategy for multi-step ahead prediction of time series techniques. In this study, the number of available observations and the number of predicted steps are initially determined by using false nearest neighbor method and auto mutual information technique, respectively. These values are subsequently utilized as inputs for prediction models to forecast the future values of the machines’ operating conditions. The performance of the proposed approach is then evaluated by using real trending data of low methane compressor. A comparative study of the predicted results obtained from CART and ANFIS models is also carried out to appraise the prediction capability of these models. The results show that the ANFIS prediction model can track the change in machine conditions and has the potential for using as a tool to machine fault prognosis.