Years lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990–2010 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

Background Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). Methods Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. Findings Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350 000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient −0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. Interpretation Rates of YLDs per 100 000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Socioeconomic inequalities in cardiovascular mortality and the role of childhood socioeconomic conditions and adulthood risk factors : a prospective cohort study with 17-years of follow up

Background The mechanisms underlying socioeconomic inequalities in mortality from cardiovascular diseases (CVD) are largely unknown. We studied the contribution of childhood socioeconomic conditions and adulthood risk factors to inequalities in CVD mortality in adulthood. Methods The prospective GLOBE study was carried out in the Netherlands, with baseline data from 1991, and linked with the cause of death register in 2007. At baseline, participants reported on adulthood socioeconomic position (SEP) (own educational level), childhood socioeconomic conditions (occupational level of respondent’s father), and a broad range of adulthood risk factors (health behaviours, material circumstances, psychosocial factors). This present study is based on 5,395 men and 6,306 women, and the data were analysed using Cox regression models and hazard ratios (HR). Results A low adulthood SEP was associated with increased CVD mortality for men (HR 1.84; 95% CI: 1.41-2.39) and women (HR 1.80; 95%CI: 1.04-3.10). Those with poorer childhood socioeconomic conditions were more likely to die from CVD in adulthood, but this reached statistical significance only among men with the poorest childhood socioeconomic circumstances. About half of the investigated adulthood risk factors showed significant associations with CVD mortality among both men and women, namely renting a house, experiencing financial problems, smoking, physical activity and marital status. Alcohol consumption and BMI showed a U-shaped relationship with CVD mortality among women, with the risk being significantly greater for both abstainers and heavy drinkers, and among women who were underweight or obese. Among men, being single or divorced and using sleep/anxiety drugs increased the risk of CVD mortality. In explanatory models, the largest contributor to adulthood CVD inequalities were material conditions for men (42%; 95% CI: −73 to −20) and behavioural factors for women (55%; 95% CI: -191 to −28). Simultaneous adjustment for adulthood risk factors and childhood socioeconomic conditions attenuated the HR for the lowest adulthood SEP to 1.34 (95% CI: 0.99-1.82) for men and 1.19 (95% CI: 0.65-2.15) for women. Conclusions Adulthood material, behavioural and psychosocial factors played a major role in the explanation of adulthood SEP inequalities in CVD mortality. Childhood socioeconomic circumstances made a modest contribution, mainly via their association with adulthood risk factors. Policies and interventions to reduce health inequalities are likely to be most effective when considering the influence of socioeconomic circumstances across the entire life course and in particular, poor material conditions and unhealthy behaviours in adulthood.

From simulation to emulation : an integrated approach for network security evaluation

We present a virtual test bed for network security evaluation in mid-scale telecommunication networks. Migration from simulation scenarios towards the test bed is supported and enables researchers to evaluate experiments in a more realistic environment. We provide a comprehensive interface to manage, run and evaluate experiments. On basis of a concrete example we show how the proposed test bed can be utilized.

A simulation framework for smart meter security evaluation

The evolution of classic power grids to smart grids creates chances for most participants in the energy sector. Customers can save money by reducing energy consumption, energy providers can better predict energy demand and environment benefits since lower energy consumption implies lower energy production including a decrease of emissions from plants. But information and communication systems supporting smart grids can also be subject to classical or new network attacks. Attacks can result in serious damage such as harming privacy of customers, creating economical loss and even disturb the power supply/demand balance of large regions and countries. In this paper, we give an overview about the German smart measuring architecture, protocols and security. Afterwards, we present a simulation framework which enables researchers to analyze security aspects of smart measuring scenarios.

Using ‘think aloud’ as a strategy for improving clinical reasoning in high fidelity case-based simulation for undergraduate nursing students.

Theme Paper for Curriculum innovation and enhancement theme AIM: This paper reports on a research project that trialled an educational strategy implemented in an undergraduate nursing curriculum. The project aimed to explore the effectiveness of ‘think aloud’ as a strategy for improving clinical reasoning for students in simulated clinical settings. BACKGROUND: Nurses are required to apply and utilise critical thinking skills to enable clinical reasoning and problem solving in the clinical setting (Lasater, 2007). Nursing students are expected to develop and display clinical reasoning skills in practice, but may struggle articulating reasons behind decisions about patient care. The ‘think aloud’ approach is an innovative learning/teaching method which can create an environment suitable for developing clinical reasoning skills in students (Banning, 2008, Lee and Ryan-Wenger, 1997). This project used the ‘think aloud’ strategy within a simulation context to provide a safe learning environment in which third year students were assisted to uncover cognitive approaches to assist in making effective patient care decisions, and improve their confidence, clinical reasoning and active critical reflection about their practice. MEHODS: In semester 2 2011 at QUT, third year nursing students undertook high fidelity simulation (some for the first time), commencing in September of 2011. There were two cohorts for strategy implementation (group 1= used think aloud as a strategy within the simulation, group 2= no specific strategy outside of nursing assessment frameworks used by all students) in relation to problem solving patient needs. The think aloud strategy was described to students in their pre-simulation briefing and allowed time for clarification of this strategy. All other aspects of the simulations remained the same, (resources, suggested nursing assessment frameworks, simulation session duration, size of simulation teams, preparatory materials). Ethics approval has been obtained for this project. RESULTS: Results of a qualitative analysis (in progress- will be completed by March 2012) of student and facilitator reports on students’ ability to meet the learning objectives of solving patient problems using clinical reasoning and experience with the ‘think aloud’ method will be presented. A comparison of clinical reasoning learning outcomes between the two groups will determine the effect on clinical reasoning for students responding to patient problems. CONCLUSIONS: In an environment of increasingly constrained clinical placement opportunities, exploration of alternate strategies to improve critical thinking skills and develop clinical reasoning and problem solving for nursing students is imperative in preparing nurses to respond to changing patient needs.

Visualization of thermal characteristics around the absorber tube of a standard parabolic trough thermal collector by 3D simulation

Three dimensional conjugate heat transfer simulation of a standard parabolic trough thermal collector receiver is performed numerically in order to visualize and analyze the surface thermal characteristics. The computational model is developed in Ansys Fluent environment based on some simplified assumptions. Three test conditions are selected from the existing literature to verify the numerical model directly, and reasonably good agreement between the model and the test results confirms the reliability of the simulation. Solar radiation flux profile around the tube is also approximated from the literature. An in house macro is written to read the input solar flux as a heat flux wall boundary condition for the tube wall. The numerical results show that there is an abrupt variation in the resultant heat flux along the circumference of the receiver. Consequently, the temperature varies throughout the tube surface. The lower half of the horizontal receiver enjoys the maximum solar flux, and therefore, experiences the maximum temperature rise compared to the upper part with almost leveled temperature. Reasonable attributions and suggestions are made on this particular type of conjugate thermal system. The knowledge that gained so far from this study will be used to further the analysis and to design an efficient concentrator photovoltaic collector in near future.

Three dimensional simulation of a parabolic trough concentrator thermal collector

Parabolic Trough Concentrators (PTC) are the most proven solar collectors for solar thermal power plants, and are suitable for concentrating photovoltaic (CPV) applications. PV cells are sensitive to spatial uniformity of incident light and the cell operating temperature. This requires the design of CPV-PTCs to be optimised both optically and thermally. Optical modelling can be performed using Monte Carlo Ray Tracing (MCRT), with conjugate heat transfer (CHT) modelling using the computational fluid dynamics (CFD) to analyse the overall designs. This paper develops and evaluates a CHT simulation for a concentrating solar thermal PTC collector. It uses the ray tracing work by Cheng et al. (2010) and thermal performance data for LS-2 parabolic trough used in the SEGS III-VII plants from Dudley et al. (1994). This is a preliminary step to developing models to compare heat transfer performances of faceted absorbers for concentrating photovoltaic (CPV) applications. Reasonable agreement between the simulation results and the experimental data confirms the reliability of the numerical model. The model explores different physical issues as well as computational issues for this particular kind of system modeling. The physical issues include the resultant non-uniformity of the boundary heat flux profile and the temperature profile around the tube, and uneven heating of the HTF. The numerical issues include, most importantly, the design of the computational domain/s, and the solution techniques of the turbulence quantities and the near-wall physics. This simulation confirmed that optical simulation and the computational CHT simulation of the collector can be accomplished independently.

An extensible simulation framework for critical infrastructure security

We introduce the Network Security Simulator (NeSSi2), an open source discrete event-based network simulator. It incorporates a variety of features relevant to network security distinguishing it from general-purpose network simulators. Compared to the predecessor NeSSi, it was extended with a three-tier plugin architecture and a generic network model to shift its focus towards simulation framework for critical infrastructures. We demonstrate the gained adaptability by different use cases

Cohort normalization based sparse representation for undersampled face recognition

Abstract. In recent years, sparse representation based classification(SRC) has received much attention in face recognition with multipletraining samples of each subject. However, it cannot be easily applied toa recognition task with insufficient training samples under uncontrolledenvironments. On the other hand, cohort normalization, as a way of mea-suring the degradation effect under challenging environments in relationto a pool of cohort samples, has been widely used in the area of biometricauthentication. In this paper, for the first time, we introduce cohort nor-malization to SRC-based face recognition with insufficient training sam-ples. Specifically, a user-specific cohort set is selected to normalize theraw residual, which is obtained from comparing the test sample with itssparse representations corresponding to the gallery subject, using poly-nomial regression. Experimental results on AR and FERET databases show that cohort normalization can bring SRC much robustness against various forms of degradation factors for undersampled face recognition.

Daylighting design and simulation : ease of use analysis of digital tools for architects

Good daylighting design in buildings not only provides a comfortable luminous environment, but also delivers energy savings and comfortable and healthy environments for building occupants. Yet, there is still no consensus on how to assess what constitutes good daylighting design. Currently amongst building performance guidelines, Daylighting factors (DF) or minimum illuminance values are the standard; however, previous research has shown the shortcomings of these metrics. New computer software for daylighting analysis contains new more advanced metrics for daylighting (Climate Base Daylight Metrics-CBDM). Yet, these tools (new metrics or simulation tools) are not currently understood by architects and are not used within architectural firms in Australia. A survey of architectural firms in Brisbane showed the most relevant tools used by industry. The purpose of this paper is to assess and compare these computer simulation tools and new tools available architects and designers for daylighting. The tools are assessed in terms of their ease of use (e.g. previous knowledge required, complexity of geometry input, etc.), efficiency (e.g. speed, render capabilities, etc.) and outcomes (e.g. presentation of results, etc. The study shows tools that are most accessible for architects, are those that import a wide variety of files, or can be integrated into the current 3d modelling software or package. These software’s need to be able to calculate for point in times simulations, and annual analysis. There is a current need in these software solutions for an open source program able to read raw data (in the form of spreadsheets) and show that graphically within a 3D medium. Currently, development into plug-in based software’s are trying to solve this need through third party analysis, however some of these packages are heavily reliant and their host program. These programs however which allow dynamic daylighting simulation, which will make it easier to calculate accurate daylighting no matter which modelling platform the designer uses, while producing more tangible analysis today, without the need to process raw data.

Design, simulation and analysis of a parallel hybrid electric propulsion system for unmanned aerial vehicles

Aerial Vehicles (UAV) has become a significant growing segment of the global aviation industry. These vehicles are developed with the intention of operating in regions where the presence of onboard human pilots is either too risky or unnecessary. Their popularity with both the military and civilian sectors have seen the use of UAVs in a diverse range of applications, from reconnaissance and surveillance tasks for the military, to civilian uses such as aid relief and monitoring tasks. Efficient energy utilisation on an UAV is essential to its functioning, often to achieve the operational goals of range, endurance and other specific mission requirements. Due to the limitations of the space available and the mass budget on the UAV, it is often a delicate balance between the onboard energy available (i.e. fuel) and achieving the operational goals. This paper presents the development of a parallel Hybrid Electric Propulsion System (HEPS) on a small fixed-wing UAV incorporating an Ideal Operating Line (IOL) control strategy. A simulation model of an UAV was developed in the MATLAB Simulink environment, utilising the AeroSim Blockset and the in-built Aerosonde UAV block and its parameters. An IOL analysis of an Aerosonde engine was performed, and the most efficient (i.e. provides greatest torque output at the least fuel consumption) points of operation for this engine were determined. Simulation models of the components in a HEPS were designed and constructed in the MATLAB Simulink environment. It was demonstrated through simulation that an UAV with the current HEPS configuration was capable of achieving a fuel saving of 6.5%, compared to the ICE-only configuration. These components form the basis for the development of a complete simulation model of a Hybrid-Electric UAV (HEUAV).

Experimental and computer simulation validation of ultrasound phase interference created by lateral inhomogeneity of transit time in replica bone marrow composite models

Purpose: The measurement of broadband ultrasonic attenuation (BUA) in cancellous bone for the assessment of osteoporosis follows a parabolic-type dependence with bone volume fraction; having minima values corresponding to both entire bone and entire marrow. Langton has recently proposed that the primary BUA mechanism may be significant phase interference due to variations in propagation transit time through the test sample as detected over the phase-sensitive surface of the receive ultrasound transducer. This fundamentally simple concept assumes that the propagation of ultrasound through a complex solid : liquid composite sample such as cancellous bone may be considered by an array of parallel ‘sonic rays’. The transit time of each ray is defined by the proportion of bone and marrow propagated, being a minimum (tmin) solely through bone and a maximum (tmax) solely through marrow. A Transit Time Spectrum (TTS), ranging from tmin to tmax, may be defined describing the proportion of sonic rays having a particular transit time, effectively describing lateral inhomogeneity of transit time over the surface of the receive ultrasound transducer. Phase interference may result from interaction of ‘sonic rays’ of differing transit times. The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that there is a dependence of phase interference upon the lateral inhomogenity of transit time by comparing experimental measurements and computer simulation predictions of ultrasound propagation through a range of relatively simplistic solid:liquid models exhibiting a range of lateral inhomogeneities. Methods: A range of test models was manufactured using acrylic and water as surrogates for bone and marrow respectively. The models varied in thickness in one dimension normal to the direction of propagation, hence exhibiting a range of transit time lateral inhomogeneities, ranging from minimal (single transit time) to maximal (wedge; ultimately the limiting case where each sonic ray has a unique transit time). For the experimental component of the study, two unfocused 1 MHz ¾” broadband diameter transducers were utilized in transmission mode; ultrasound signals were recorded for each of the models. The computer simulation was performed with Matlab, where the transit time and relative amplitude of each sonic ray was calculated. The transit time for each sonic ray was defined as the sum of transit times through acrylic and water components. The relative amplitude considered the reception area for each sonic ray along with absorption in the acrylic. To replicate phase-sensitive detection, all sonic rays were summed and the output signal plotted in comparison with the experimentally derived output signal. Results: From qualtitative and quantitative comparison of the experimental and computer simulation results, there is an extremely high degree of agreement of 94.2% to 99.0% between the two approaches, supporting the concept that propagation of an ultrasound wave, for the models considered, may be approximated by a parallel sonic ray model where the transit time of each ray is defined by the proportion of ‘bone’ and ‘marrow’. Conclusions: This combined experimental and computer simulation study has successfully demonstrated that lateral inhomogeneity of transit time has significant potential for phase interference to occur if a phase-sensitive ultrasound receive transducer is implemented as in most commercial ultrasound bone analysis devices.

Studies in power hardware in the loop (PHIL) simulation using real-time digital simulator (RTDS)

In power hardware in the loop (PHIL) simulations, a real-time simulated power system is interfaced to a piece of hardware, usually called hardware under test (HuT). A PHIL test can be realized using several simulation tools. Among them Real Time Digital Simulator (RTDS) is an ideal tool to perform complex power system simulations in near real-time. Stable operation of the entire system, along with the accuracy of simulation results are the main concerns regarding a PHIL simulation. In this paper, a simulated power network on RTDS will be interfaced to HuT through a voltage source converter (VSC). Issues around stability and other interface problems are studied and a new method to stabilize some unstable PHIL cases is proposed. PHIL simulation results in PSCAD and RSCAD are presented.

A cross-sectional analysis of patterns of obesity in a cohort of working nurses and midwives in Australia, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom

Objective The aim of this study was to examine the prevalence of overweight and obesity and the association with demographic, reproductive work variables in a representative cohort of working nurses and midwives. Design A cross sectional study of self reported survey data. Settings Australia, New Zealand and the United Kingdom. Methods Measurement outcomes included BMI categories, demographic (age, gender, marital status, ethnicity), reproductive (parity, number of births, mother's age at first birth, birth type and menopausal status) and workforce (registration council, employment type and principal specialty) variables. Participants 4996 respondents to the Nurses and Midwives e-Cohort study who were currently registered and working in nursing or midwifery in Australia (n=3144), New Zealand (n=778) or the United Kingdom (n=1074). Results Amongst the sample 61.87% were outside the healthy weight range and across all three jurisdictions the prevalence of obesity in nurses and midwives exceeded rates in the source populations by 1.73% up to 3.74%. Being overweight or obese was significantly associated with increasing age (35–44 yrs aOR 1.71, 95% CI 1.41–2.08; 45–55 yrs aOR 1.90, 95%CI 1.56–2.31; 55–64 aOR 2.22, 95% CI 1.71–2.88), and male gender (aOR 1.46, 95% CI 1.15–1.87). Primiparous nurses and midwives were more likely to be overweight or obese (aOR 1.37, 95% CI 1.06–1.76) as were those who had reached menopause (aOR 1.37, 95% CI 1.11–1.69). Nurses and midwives in part-time or casual employment had significantly reduced risk of being overweight or obese, (aOR 0.81, 95% CI 0.70–0.94 and aOR 0.75, 95% CI 0.59–0.96 respectively), whilst working in aged carried increased risk (aOR 1.37, 95% CI 1.04–1.80). Conclusion Nurses and midwives in this study have higher prevalence of obesity and overweight than the general population and those who are older, male, or female primiparous and menopausal have significantly higher risk of overweight or obesity as do those working fulltime, or in aged care. The consequences of overweight and obesity in this occupational group may impact on their workforce participation, their management of overweight and obese patients in their care as well as influencing their individual health behaviours and risks of occupational injury and chronic disease.

Molecular dynamics simulation of fracture strength and morphology of defective graphene

Different types of defects can be introduced into graphene during material synthesis, and significantly influence the properties of graphene. In this work, we investigated the effects of structural defects, edge functionalisation and reconstruction on the fracture strength and morphology of graphene by molecular dynamics simulations. The minimum energy path analysis was conducted to investigate the formation of Stone-Wales defects. We also employed out-of-plane perturbation and energy minimization principle to study the possi-ble morphology of graphene nanoribbons with edge-termination. Our numerical results show that the fracture strength of graphene is dependent on defects and environmental temperature. However, pre-existing defects may be healed, resulting in strength recovery. Edge functionalization can induce compressive stress and ripples in the edge areas of gra-phene nanoribbons. On the other hand, edge reconstruction contributed to the tensile stress and curved shape in the graphene nanoribbons.