In search of good probability assessors: An experimental comparison of elicitation rules for confidence judgments

In this paper, we use an experimental design to compare the performance of elicitation rules for subjective beliefs. Contrary to previous works in which elicited beliefs are compared to an objective benchmark, we consider a purely subjective belief framework (confidence in one’s own performance in a cognitive task and a perceptual task). The performance of different elicitation rules is assessed according to the accuracy of stated beliefs in predicting success. We measure this accuracy using two main factors: calibration and discrimination. For each of them, we propose two statistical indexes and we compare the rules’ performances for each measurement. The matching probability method provides more accurate beliefs in terms of discrimination, while the quadratic scoring rule reduces overconfidence and the free rule, a simple rule with no incentives, which succeeds in eliciting accurate beliefs. Nevertheless, the matching probability appears to be the best mechanism for eliciting beliefs due to its performances in terms of calibration and discrimination, but also its ability to elicit consistent beliefs across measures and across tasks, as well as its empirical and theoretical properties.

Intravascular device administration sets: Replacement after standard versus prolonged use in hospitalised patients--a study protocol for a randomised controlled trial (The RSVP Trial)

Introduction Vascular access devices (VADs), such as peripheral or central venous catheters, are vital across all medical and surgical specialties. To allow therapy or haemodynamic monitoring, VADs frequently require administration sets (AS) composed of infusion tubing, fluid containers, pressure-monitoring transducers and/or burettes. While VADs are replaced only when necessary, AS are routinely replaced every 3–4 days in the belief that this reduces infectious complications. Strong evidence supports AS use up to 4 days, but there is less evidence for AS use beyond 4 days. AS replacement twice weekly increases hospital costs and workload. Methods and analysis This is a pragmatic, multicentre, randomised controlled trial (RCT) of equivalence design comparing AS replacement at 4 (control) versus 7 (experimental) days. Randomisation is stratified by site and device, centrally allocated and concealed until enrolment. 6554 adult/paediatric patients with a central venous catheter, peripherally inserted central catheter or peripheral arterial catheter will be enrolled over 4 years. The primary outcome is VAD-related bloodstream infection (BSI) and secondary outcomes are VAD colonisation, AS colonisation, all-cause BSI, all-cause mortality, number of AS per patient, VAD time in situ and costs. Relative incidence rates of VAD-BSI per 100 devices and hazard rates per 1000 device days (95% CIs) will summarise the impact of 7-day relative to 4-day AS use and test equivalence. Kaplan-Meier survival curves (with log rank Mantel-Cox test) will compare VAD-BSI over time. Appropriate parametric or non-parametric techniques will be used to compare secondary end points. p Values of <0.05 will be considered significant.

Trainee-therapists are not all equal: Examination of therapeutic efficiency, effectiveness and early client dropout after 12 months of clinical training

Objective Contemporary research demonstrates the feasibility of assessing therapeutic performance of trainee-therapists through the use of objective measures of client treatment outcome. Further, significant variation between individual therapists based on their client treatment outcomes has been demonstrated. This study sets out to determine whether a reliable composite measure of therapeutic efficiency, effectiveness and early dropout can be developed and used to objectively compare trainee-therapists against each other. Design and methods Treatment outcomes of 611 clients receiving treatment from 58 trainee-therapists enrolled in a professional training programme were tracked with the OQ-45.2 over a 6-year period to assess therapeutic efficiency, therapeutic effectiveness and early client dropout. Results Significant variation between trainee-therapists was observed for each index. Findings of a moderately strong correlation between therapeutic efficiency and effectiveness enabled the ranking of trainee-therapists based upon a composite measure of these indexes. A non-significant correlation was found between early client dropout and measures of therapeutic effectiveness and efficiency. Conclusions The findings stress the importance of utilizing objective measures to track the treatment outcomes. Despite all trainee-therapists being enrolled in the same training programme, significant variation between trainee-therapists' therapeutic efficiency and effectiveness was found to exist. Practitioner points Developing of potential benchmarking tools that enable trainee-therapists, supervisors and educational institutions to quickly assess therapeutic performance can become part of a holistic assessment of a trainee-therapist's clinical development. Despite an inherent optimistic belief that therapists do not cause harm, there appears to be a small and significant proportion of trainee-therapists who consistently evidence little therapeutic change. Considerable variability in trainee-therapists' therapeutic efficiency and effectiveness can exist in the one training programme. Early client dropout may not be associated with therapists' therapeutic effectiveness and efficiency.

Inside the black box of food safety: A qualitative study of ‘non-compliance’ among food businesses

Issue addressed The paper examines the meanings of food safety among food businesses deemed non-compliant and considers the need for an ‘insider perspective’ to inform a more nuanced health promotion practice. Methods In-depth interviews were conducted with 29 food business operators who had been recently deemed ‘non-compliant’ through Council inspection. Result Paradoxically, these ‘non-compliers’ revealed a strong belief in the importance of food safety as well as a desire to comply with the regulations as communicated to them by Environmental Health Officers (EHOs). Conclusions The evidence base of food safety is largely informed by the science of food hazards, yet there is a very important need to illuminate the ‘insider’ experience of food businesses doing food safety on a daily basis. This requires a more socially nuanced appreciation of food businesses beyond the simple dichotomy of compliant/ non-compliant. So what? Armed with a deeper understanding of the social context surrounding food safety practice, it is anticipated that a more balanced, collaborative mode of food safety health promotion could develop which could add to the current signature model of regulation.

Improving deep convultional neural networks with unsupervised feature learning

The latest generation of Deep Convolutional Neural Networks (DCNN) have dramatically advanced challenging computer vision tasks, especially in object detection and object classification, achieving state-of-the-art performance in several computer vision tasks including text recognition, sign recognition, face recognition and scene understanding. The depth of these supervised networks has enabled learning deeper and hierarchical representation of features. In parallel, unsupervised deep learning such as Convolutional Deep Belief Network (CDBN) has also achieved state-of-the-art in many computer vision tasks. However, there is very limited research on jointly exploiting the strength of these two approaches. In this paper, we investigate the learning capability of both methods. We compare the output of individual layers and show that many learnt filters and outputs of the corresponding level layer are almost similar for both approaches. Stacking the DCNN on top of unsupervised layers or replacing layers in the DCNN with the corresponding learnt layers in the CDBN can improve the recognition/classification accuracy and training computational expense. We demonstrate the validity of the proposal on ImageNet dataset.

Exploring female university students' beliefs about binge eating

Binge eating (BE) among female university students is rising in prevalence and few studies have considered the role of social cognitive processes in decisions to engage in BE. This study adopted a theory of planned behavior (TPB) belief-based approach to examine the beliefs that underpin female university students' intentions to BE. Participants (N = 250) completed self-report questionnaires assessing BE intentions and the TPB behavioral (advantages and disadvantages of BE), normative (important others approving/disapproving of BE), and control (barriers toward and motivators for BE) belief measures. For analyses, participants were grouped based on a median split of the overall intention score into those with higher and lower intentions to binge eat. Differences in the TPB beliefs about BE between these two groups were then assessed. Female students with higher intentions to binge eat differed significantly in their endorsement of the likely beliefs related to BE, compared to female students with lower intentions to binge eat. The results suggest that interventions to decrease BE in the female student population should reduce the associated advantages (e.g., stress relief and feelings of comfort), enhance perceptions of disapproval for BE from important others (e.g., partner and friends), provide education about the health implications to strengthen the perceived barriers discouraging BE, and suggest healthy alternatives to overcome the factors (e.g., being alone and boredom) motivating BE

Potential uses of Bayesian networks as tools for synthesis of systematic reviews of complex interventions

Bayesian networks (BNs) are tools for representing expert knowledge or evidence. They are especially useful for synthesising evidence or belief concerning a complex intervention, assessing the sensitivity of outcomes to different situations or contextual frameworks and framing decision problems that involve alternative types of intervention. Bayesian networks are useful extensions to logic maps when initiating a review or to facilitate synthesis and bridge the gap between evidence acquisition and decision-making. Formal elicitation techniques allow development of BNs on the basis of expert opinion. Such applications are useful alternatives to ‘empty’ reviews, which identify knowledge gaps but fail to support decision-making. Where review evidence exists, it can inform the development of a BN. We illustrate the construction of a BN using a motivating example that demonstrates how BNs can ensure coherence, transparently structure the problem addressed by a complex intervention and assess sensitivity to context, all of which are critical components of robust reviews of complex interventions. We suggest that BNs should be utilised to routinely synthesise reviews of complex interventions or empty reviews where decisions must be made despite poor evidence.

Covitality constructs as predictors of psychological well-being and depression for secondary school students'

This study was an examination of the strength of relations among covitality, and its underlying constructs of belief in self, emotional competence, belief in others, and engaged living, and two outcome variables; subjective well-being and depression. Participants included 361 Australian secondary school students (75 males and 286 females) who completed a series of online questionnaires related to positive psychological well-being in adolescents. The results from the first standard multiple regression analysis indicated that higher levels of belief in self, belief in others, and engaged living were significant predictors of increased subjective well-being. The results from the second standard multiple regression showed that higher levels of belief in self, belief in others, and engaged living were significant predictors of decreased feelings of depression. In both standard multiple regression models, the combined effect of the traits that comprise covitality was greater than the effect of each individual positive psychological trait.

Drink driving among Indigenous people in Far North Queensland and northern New South Wales: A summary of the qualitative findings

Purpose In response to the threat that drink drivers pose to themselves and others, drink driving programs form an important part of a suite of countermeasures used in Australia and internationally. Unlike New Zealand/Aotearoa, United States and Canada that have programs catering for their First Peoples, all Australian programs are designed for the general driver population. The aim of this study was to identify the factors that contribute to Indigenous drink driving in order to inform appropriate recommendations related to developing a community-based program for Indigenous communities. Broader drivers licensing policy recommendations are also discussed. Methods A sample of 73 Indigenous people from Queensland and in New South Wales with one or more drink driving convictions completed a semi-structured interview in respect of the to their drink driving behaviour. Participants were asked to disclose information regarding their drink driving history, and alcohol and drug use. If participants self-reported no longer drink driving, they were probed about what factors had assisted them to avoid further offending. Results Key themes which emerged to maintain drink driving include motivations to drink and drive, and belief in the ability to manage the associated risks. Factors that appeared to support others from avoiding further offending include re-connecting with culture and family support. Conclusions and Implications A range of recommendations regarding delivery and content of a program for regional and remote communities as well as other policy implications are discussed.

Designing innovative business models with a framework that promotes experimentation

Purpose – Business models to date have remained the creation of management, however, it is the belief of the authors that designers should be critically approaching, challenging and creating new business models as part of their practice. This belief portrays a new era where business model constructs become the new design brief of the future and fuel design and innovation to work together at the strategic level of an organisation. Design/methodology/approach – The purpose of this paper is to explore and investigate business model design. The research followed a deductive structured qualitative content analysis approach utilizing a predetermined categorization matrix. The analysis of forty business cases uncovered commonalities of key strategic drivers behind these innovative business models. Findings – Five business model typologies were derived from this content analysis, from which quick prototypes of new business models can be created. Research limitations/implications – Implications from this research suggest there is no “one right” model, but rather through experimentation, the generation of many unique and diverse concepts can result in greater possibilities for future innovation and sustained competitive advantage. Originality/value – This paper builds upon the emerging research and exploration into the importance and relevance of dynamic, design-driven approaches to the creation of innovative business models. These models aim to synthesize knowledge gained from real world examples into a tangible, accessible and provoking framework that provide new prototyping templates to aid the process of business model experimentation.

Nuclear power and Japan's collective future: Understanding beliefs about how nuclear policies will affect society

Despite ongoing controversies regarding possible directions for the nuclear plants program throughout Japan since the Fukushima disaster, little has been researched about people's belief structure about future society and what may affect their attitudes toward different policy options. Beyond policy debates, the present study focused on how people see a future society according to the assumptions of different policy options. A total of 125 students at Japanese universities were asked to compare a future society with society today in which one of alternative policies was adopted (i.e., shutdown or expansion of nuclear reactors) in terms of characteristics of individuals and society in general. While perceived dangerousness of nuclear power predicted attitudes and behavioural intentions to make personal sacrifices for nuclear power policies, beliefs about the social consequences of the policies, especially on economic development and dysfunction, appeared to play stronger roles in predicting those measures. The importance of sociological dimensions in understanding how people perceive the future of society regarding alternative nuclear power policies, and the subtle discrepancies between attitudes and behavioural intentions, are discussed.

Understanding mental toughness in Australian soccer: Perceptions of players, parents, and coaches

We explored mental toughness in soccer using a triangulation of data capture involving players (n = 6), coaches (n = 4), and parents (n = 5). Semi-structured interviews, based on a personal construct psychology (Kelly, 1955/1991) framework, were conducted to elicit participants' perspectives on the key characteristics and their contrasts, situations demanding mental toughness, and the behaviours displayed and cognitions employed by mentally tough soccer players. The results from the research provided further evidence that mental toughness is conceptually distinct from other psychological constructs such as hardiness. The findings also supported Gucciardi, Gordon, and Dimmock's (2009) process model of mental toughness. A winning mentality and desire was identified as a key attribute of mentally tough soccer players in addition to other previously reported qualities such as self-belief, physical toughness, work ethic/motivation, and resilience. Key cognitions reported by mentally tough soccer players enabled them to remain focused and competitive during training and matches and highlighted the adoption of several forms of self-talk in dealing with challenging situations. Minor revisions to Gucciardi and colleagues' definition of mental toughness are proposed.

Identifying safety beliefs among Australian electrical workers

The current study explored underlying beliefs regarding work safety among a sample of experienced Australian electrical workers. A qualitative research methodology using the theory of planned behavior as a framework was employed. A series of interviews and focus groups with licensed electrical workers (N = 46) were analyzed using thematic content analysis. Beliefs were classified as advantages (e.g. personal safety of self and co-workers), disadvantages (e.g., inconvenience to customer/clients and workload), referents (e.g., supervisors, work colleagues, customers), barriers (e.g., time and cost), and facilitators (e.g., training and knowledge, equipment availability) of safety adherence. The belief basis of the theory of planned behavior was a useful framework for exploring workers’ safety beliefs. The identified beliefs can inform future research about the important factors influencing safe work decisions and inform strategies to promote safer workplace decision making within the electrical safety context.

Toward a design theory for green information systems

We report on ongoing research to develop a design theory for classes of information systems that allow for work practices that exhibit a minimal harmful impact on the natural environment. We call such information systems Green IS. In this paper we describe the building blocks of our Green IS design theory, which develops prescriptions for information systems that allow for: (1) belief formation, action formation and outcome measurement relating to (2) environmentally sustainable work practices and environmentally sustainable decisions on (3) a macro or micro level. For each element, we specify structural features, symbolic expressions, user abilities and goals required for the affordances to emerge. We also provide a set of testable propositions derived from our design theory and declare two principles of implementation.

The motivational benefits of specific versus general optimism

This study addresses the question whether a specific, work-related form of optimistic thinking has motivational consequences in terms of work engagement above and beyond general optimism over time. A specific form of optimistic thinking is focus on opportunities. Focus on opportunities is a future-oriented belief that describes how many plans, goals, and possibilities people expect to have in their future at work. Based on a cross-lagged panel design with a two-year time lag and data from a sample of 124 German business owners, results of structural equation modeling showed that focus on opportunities positively predicted changes in work engagement over time, even when controlling for general optimism. This finding supports propositions of social cognition and self-regulation theories that emphasize the importance of a specific form of optimism that has motivating potential by referring to future work goals and opportunities