Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

Advanced mass spectrometry-based multi-omics technologies for exploring the pathogenesis of hepatocellular carcinoma

Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is one of the primary hepatic malignancies and is the third most common cause of cancer related death worldwide. Although a wealth of knowledge has been gained concerning the initiation and progression of HCC over the last half century, efforts to improve our understanding of its pathogenesis at a molecular level are still greatly needed, to enable clinicians to enhance the standards of the current diagnosis and treatment of HCC. In the post-genome era, advanced mass spectrometry driven multi-omics technologies (e.g., profiling of DNA damage adducts, RNA modification profiling, proteomics, and metabolomics) stand at the interface between chemistry and biology, and have yielded valuable outcomes from the study of a diversity of complicated diseases. Particularly, these technologies are being broadly used to dissect various biological aspects of HCC with the purpose of biomarker discovery, interrogating pathogenesis as well as for therapeutic discovery. This proof of knowledge-based critical review aims at exploring the selected applications of those defined omics technologies in the HCC niche with an emphasis on translational applications driven by advanced mass spectrometry, toward the specific clinical use for HCC patients. This approach will enable the biomedical community, through both basic research and the clinical sciences, to enhance the applicability of mass spectrometry-based omics technologies in dissecting the pathogenesis of HCC and could lead to novel therapeutic discoveries for HCC.

The cost-effectiveness of total laparoscopic hysterectomy compared to total abdominal hysterectomy for the treatment of early stage endometrial cancer

Objective To summarise how costs and health benefits will change with the adoption of total laparoscopic hysterectomy compared to total abdominal hysterectomy for the treatment of early stage endometrial cancer. Design Cost-effectiveness modelling using the information from a randomised controlled trial. Participants Two hypothetical modelled cohorts of 1000 individuals undergoing total laparoscopic hysterectomy and total abdominal hysterectomy. Outcome measures Surgery costs; hospital bed days used; total healthcare costs; quality-adjusted life years; and net monetary benefits. Results For 1000 individuals receiving total laparoscopic hysterectomy surgery, the costs were $509 575 higher, 3548 hospital fewer bed days were used and total health services costs were reduced by $3 746 221. There were 39.13 more quality-adjusted life years for a 5 year period following surgery. Conclusions The adoption of total laparoscopic hysterectomy is almost certainly a good decision for health services policy makers. There is 100% probability that it will be cost saving to health services, a 86.8% probability that it will increase health benefits and a 99.5% chance that it returns net monetary benefits greater than zero.

Analysis of albumin-associated peptides and proteins from ovarian cancer patients

Albumin binds low–molecular-weight molecules, including proteins and peptides, which then acquire its longer half-life, thereby protecting the bound species from kidney clearance. We developed an experimental method to isolate albumin in its native state and to then identify [mass spectrometry (MS) sequencing] the corresponding bound low–molecular-weight molecules. We used this method to analyze pooled sera from a human disease study set (high-risk persons without cancer, n= 40; stage I ovarian cancer, n = 30; stage III ovarian cancer, n = 40) to demonstrate the feasibility of this approach as a discovery method. Methods Albumin was isolated by solid-phase affinity capture under native binding and washing conditions. Captured albumin-associated proteins and peptides were separated by gel electrophoresis and subjected to iterative MS sequencing by microcapillary reversed-phase tandem MS. Selected albumin-bound protein fragments were confirmed in human sera by Western blotting and immunocompetition. Results In total, 1208 individual protein sequences were predicted from all 3 pools. The predicted sequences were largely fragments derived from proteins with diverse biological functions. More than one third of these fragments were identified by multiple peptide sequences, and more than one half of the identified species were in vivo cleavage products of parent proteins. An estimated 700 serum peptides or proteins were predicted that had not been reported in previous serum databases. Several proteolytic fragments of larger molecules that may be cancer-related were confirmed immunologically in blood by Western blotting and peptide immunocompetition. BRCA2, a 390-kDa low-abundance nuclear protein linked to cancer susceptibility, was represented in sera as a series of specific fragments bound to albumin. Conclusion Carrier-protein harvesting provides a rich source of candidate peptides and proteins with potential diverse tissue and cellular origins that may reflect important disease-related information.

The amplified peptidome : the new treasure chest of candidate biomarkers

Mass spectrometric analysis of the low-molecular weight (LMW) range of the serum/plasma proteome is revealing the existence of large numbers of previously unknown peptides and protein fragments predicted to be derived from low- abundance proteins. This raises the question of why such low abundance molecules would be retained at detectable levels in the circulation, instead of being rapidly cleared and excreted. Theoretical models of biomarker production and association with serum carrier proteins have been developed to elucidate the mechanisms governing biomarker half-life in the bloodstream. These models predict that the vast majority of LMW biomarkers exist in association with circulating high molecular mass carrier proteins. Moreover, the total serum/ plasma concentration of the biomarker is largely determined by the clearance rate of the carrier protein, not the free-phase biomarker clearance itself. These predictions have been verified experimentally using molecular mass fractionation of human serum before mass spectrometry sequence analysis. These principles have profound implications for biomarker discovery and measurement.

Modelling total duration of traffic incidents including incident detection and recovery time

Traffic incidents are key contributors to non-recurrent congestion, potentially generating significant delay. Factors that influence the duration of incidents are important to understand so that effective mitigation strategies can be implemented. To identify and quantify the effects of influential factors, a methodology for studying total incident duration based on historical data from an ‘integrated database’ is proposed. Incident duration models are developed using a selected freeway segment in the Southeast Queensland, Australia network. The models include incident detection and recovery time as components of incident duration. A hazard-based duration modelling approach is applied to model incident duration as a function of a variety of factors that influence traffic incident duration. Parametric accelerated failure time survival models are developed to capture heterogeneity as a function of explanatory variables, with both fixed and random parameters specifications. The analysis reveals that factors affecting incident duration include incident characteristics (severity, type, injury, medical requirements, etc.), infrastructure characteristics (roadway shoulder availability), time of day, and traffic characteristics. The results indicate that event type durations are uniquely different, thus requiring different responses to effectively clear them. Furthermore, the results highlight the presence of unobserved incident duration heterogeneity as captured by the random parameter models, suggesting that additional factors need to be considered in future modelling efforts.

Total factor productivity growth and convergence in the petroleum industry : empirical analysis testing for convexity

While economic theory acknowledges that some features of technology (e.g., indivisibilities, economies of scale and specialization) can fundamentally violate the traditional convexity assumption, almost all empirical studies accept the convexity property on faith. In this contribution, we apply two alternative flexible production technologies to measure total factor productivity growth and test the significance of the convexity axiom using a nonparametric test of closeness between unknown distributions. Based on unique field level data on the petroleum industry, the empirical results reveal significant differences, indicating that this production technology is most likely non-convex. Furthermore, we also show the impact of convexity on answers to traditional convergence questions in the productivity growth literature.

The use of correspondence analysis to compare major and trace elements for provenance studies of iron-age pottery from the Mngeni river area, South Africa

Provenance studies of iron-age pottery specimens originating from the Mngeni river area in South Africa was carried out by applying XRF spectrometry. A total of sixteen major and trace elements were analysed in a batch of 107 potsherds, excavated from four different archaeological sites in the aforementioned area. A multivariate statistical programme Correspondence Analysis was used in this study to obtain the relevant clustering patterns according to the similarity of the elemental distributions. Differences and similarities in the clusters obtained for the majors and trace elements are discussed.

Analysis of ancient pottery and ceramic objects using X-ray fluorescence spectrometry

Archaeology has been called 'the science of the artefact' and nothing demonstrates this point better than the current interest displayed in provenance studies of archaeological objects. In theory, every vessel carries a chemical compositional pattern or 'fingerprint' identical with the clay from which it was made and this relationship is basic to provenance studies. The reasoning behind provenance or sourcing studies is to probe into this past and attempt to re-create prehistory by obtaining information on exchange and social interaction. This paper discusses the use of XRF spectrometry for the analysis of ancient pottery and ceramics to examine whether it is possible to predict prehictoric cultural exchanges.

Collection and determination of nucleotide metabolites in neonatal and adult saliva by high performance liquid chromatography with tandem mass spectrometry

Saliva contains a number of biochemical components which may be useful for diagnosis/monitoring of metabolic disorders, and as markers of cancer or heart disease. Saliva collection is attractive as a non-invasive sampling method for infants and elderly patients. We present a method suitable for saliva collection from neonates. We have applied this technique for the determination of salivary nucleotide metabolites. Saliva was collected from 10 healthy neonates using washed cotton swabs, and directly from 10 adults. Two methods for saliva extraction from oral swabs were evaluated. The analytes were then separated using high performance liquid chromatography (HPLC) with tandem mass spectrometry (MS/MS). The limits of detection for 14 purine/pyrimidine metabolites were variable, ranging from 0.01 to 1.0 mu M. Recovery of hydrophobic purine/pyrimidine metabolites from cotton tips was consistently high using water/acetonitrile extraction (92.7-111%) compared with water extraction alone. The concentrations of these metabolites were significantly higher in neonatal saliva than in adults. Preliminary ranges for nucleotide metabolites in neonatal and adult saliva are reported. Hypoxanthine and xanthine were grossly raised in neonates (49.3 +/- 25.4; 30.9 +/- 19.5 mu M respectively) compared to adults (4.3 +/- 3.3; 4.6 +/- 4.5 mu M); nucleosides were also markedly raised in neonates. This study focuses on three essential details: contamination of oral swabs during manufacturing and how to overcome this; weighing swabs to accurately measure small saliva volumes; and methods for extracting saliva metabolites of interest from cotton swabs. A method is described for determining nucleotide metabolites using HPLC with photo-diode array or MS/MS. The advantages of utilising saliva are highlighted. Nucleotide metabolites were not simply in equilibrium with plasma, but may be actively secreted into saliva, and this process is more active in neonates than adults. (C) 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Can measures of limb loading and dynamic stability during the squat maneuver provide an index of early functional recovery following unilateral total hip arthroplasty?

Objective: To investigate limb loading and dynamic stability during squatting in the early functional recovery of total hip arthroplasty (THA) patients. Design: Cohort study Setting: Inpatient rehabilitation clinic. Participants: A random sample of 61 THA patients (34♂/27♀; 62±9 yrs, 77±14 kg, 174±9 cm) was assessed twice, 13.2±3.8 days (PRE) and 26.6±3.3 days post-surgery (POST), and compared with a healthy reference group (REF) (22♂/16♀; 47±12yrs; 78±20kg; 175±10cm). Interventions: THA patients received two weeks of standard in-patient rehabilitation. Main Outcome Measure(s): Inter-limb vertical force distribution and dynamic stability during the squat maneuver, as defined by the root mean square (RMS) of the center of pressure in antero-posterior and medio-lateral directions, of operated (OP) and non-operated (NON)limbs. Self-reported function was assessed via FFb-H-OA 2.0 questionnaire. Results: At PRE, unloading of the OP limb was 15.8% greater (P<.001, d=1.070) and antero-posterior and medio-lateral center of pressure RMS were 30-34% higher in THA than REF P<.05). Unloading was reduced by 12.8% towards a more equal distribution from PRE to POST (P<.001, d=0.874). Although medio-lateral stability improved between PRE and POST (OP: 14.8%, P=.024, d=0.397; NON: 13.1%, P=.015, d=0.321), antero-posterior stability was not significantly different. Self-reported physical function improved by 15.8% (P<.001, d=0.965). Conclusion(s): THA patients unload the OP limb and are dynamically more unstable during squatting in the early rehabilitation phase following total hip replacement than healthy adults. Although loading symmetry and medio-lateral stability improved to the level of healthy adults with rehabilitation, antero-posterior stability remained impaired. Measures of dynamic stability and load symmetry during squatting provide quantitative information that can be used to clinically monitor early functional recovery from THA.

Decline in perfluorooctane sulfonate and perfluorooctanoate serum concentrations in an Australian population from 2002 to 2011

Some perfluoroalkyl and polyfluoroalkyl substances (PFASs) have become widespread pollutants detected in human and wildlife samples worldwide. The main objective of this study was to assess temporal trends of PFAS concentrations in human blood in Australia over the last decade (2002–2011), taking into consideration age and sex trends. Pooled human sera from 2002/03 (n=26); 2008/09 (n=24) and 2010/11 (n=24) from South East Queensland, Australia were obtained from de-identified surplus pathology samples and compared with samples collected previously from 2006/07 (n=84). A total of 9775 samples in 158 pools were available for assessment of PFASs. Stratification criteria included sex and age: <16 years (2002/03 only); 0–4 (2006/07, 2008/09, 2010/11); 5–15 (2006/07, 2008/09, 2010/11); 16–30; 31–45; 46–60; and >60 years (all collection periods). Sera were analyzed using on-line solid-phase extraction coupled to high-performance liquid chromatography-isotope dilution-tandem mass spectrometry. Perfluorooctane sulfonate (PFOS) was detected in the highest concentrations ranging from 5.3–19.2 ng/ml (2008/09) to 4.4–17.4 ng/ml (2010/11). Perfluorooctanoate (PFOA) was detected in the next highest concentration ranging from 2.8–7.3 ng/ml (2008/09) to 3.1–6.5 ng/ml (2010/11). All other measured PFASs were detected at concentrations <1 ng/ml with the exception of perfluorohexane sulfonate which ranged from 1.2–5.7 ng/ml (08/09) and 1.4–5.4 ng/ml (10/11). The mean concentrations of both PFOS and PFOA in the 2010/11 period compared to 2002/03 were lower for all adult age groups by 56%. For 5-15 year olds, the decrease was 66% (PFOS) and 63% (PFOA) from 2002/03 to 2010/11. For 0-4 year olds the decrease from 2006/07 (when data were first available for this age group) was 50% (PFOS) and 22% (PFOA). This study provides strong evidence for decreasing serum PFOS and PFOA concentrations in an Australian population from 2002 through 2011. Age trends were variable and concentrations were higher in males than females. Global use has been in decline since around 2002 and hence primary exposure levels are expected to be decreasing. Further biomonitoring will allow assessment of PFAS exposures to confirm trends in exposure as primary and eventually secondary sources are depleted.