Seasonal variations of outdoor air pollution and factors driving them in the school environment in rural Bhutan

A quantitative understanding of outdoor air quality in school environments is crucial given that air pollution levels inside classrooms are significantly influenced by outdoor pollution sources. To date, only a handful of studies have been conducted on this important topic in developing countries. The aim of this study was to quantify pollutant levels in the outdoor environment of a school in Bhutan and assess the factors driving them. Measurements were conducted for 16 weeks, spanning the wet and dry seasons, in a rural school in Bhutan. PM10, PM2.5, particle number (PN) and CO were measured daily using real-time instruments, while weekly samples for volatile organic compounds (VOCs), carbonyls and NO2 were collected using a passive sampling method. Overall mean PM10 and PM2.5 concentrations (µg/m3) were 27 and 13 for the wet, and 36 and 29 for the dry season, respectively. Only wet season data were available for PN concentrations, with a mean of 2.56 × 103 particles/cm3. Mean CO concentrations were below the detection limit of the instrumentation for the entire measurement period. Only low levels of eight VOCs were detected in both the wet and dry seasons, which presented different seasonal patterns in terms of the concentration of different compounds. The notable carbonyls were formaldehyde and hexaldehyde, with mean concentrations (µg/m3) of 2.37 and 2.41 for the wet, and 6.22 and 0.34 for the dry season, respectively. Mean NO2 cocentration for the dry season was 1.7 µg/m3, while it was below the detection limit of the instrumentation for the wet season. The pollutant concentrations were associated with a number of factors, such as cleaning and combustion activities in and around the school. A comparison with other school studies showed comparable results with a few of the studies, but in general, we found lower pollutant concentrations in the present study.

Reconstruction of a multi-vent kimberlite eruption from deposit and host rock characteristics: Jericho kimberlite, Nunavut, Canada

The Jericho kimberlite (173.1. ±. 1.3. Ma) is a small (~. 130. ×. 70. m), multi-vent system that preserves products from deep (>. 1. km?) portions of kimberlite vents. Pit mapping, drill core examination, petrographic study, image analysis of olivine crystals (grain size distributions and shape studies), and compositional and mineralogical studies, are used to reconstruct processes from near-surface magma ascent to kimberlite emplacement and alteration. The Jericho kimberlite formed by multiple eruptions through an Archean granodiorite batholith that was overlain by mid-Devonian limestones ~. 1. km in thickness. Kimberlite magma ascended through granodiorite basement by dyke propagation but ascended through limestone, at least in part, by locally brecciating the host rocks. After the first explosive breakthrough to surface, vent deepening and widening occurred by the erosive forces of the waxing phase of the eruption, by gravitationally induced failures as portions of the vent margins slid into the vent and, in the deeper portions of the vent (>. 1. km), by scaling, as thin slabs burst from the walls into the vent. At currently exposed levels, coherent kimberlite (CK) dykes (<. 40. cm thick) are found to the north and south of the vent complex and represent the earliest preserved in-situ products of Jericho magmatism. Timing of CK emplacement on the eastern side of the vent complex is unclear; some thick CK (15-20. m) may have been emplaced after the central vent was formed. Explosive eruptive products are preserved in four partially overlapping vents that are roughly aligned along strike with the coherent kimberlite dyke. The volcaniclastic kimberlite (VK) facies are massive and poorly sorted, with matrix- to clast-supported textures. The VK facies fragmented by dry, volatile-driven processes and were emplaced by eruption column collapse back into the volcanic vents. The first explosive products, poorly preserved because of partial destruction by later eruptions, are found in the central-east vent and were formed by eruption column collapse after the vent was largely cleared of country rock debris. The next active vent was either the north or south vent. Collapse of the eruption column, linked to a vent widening episode, resulted in coeval avalanching of pipe margin walls into the north vent, forming interstratified lenses of country rock-rich boulder breccias in finer-grained volcaniclastic kimberlite. South vent kimberlite has similar characteristics to kimberlite of the north vent and likely formed by similar processes. The final eruptive phase formed olivine-rich and moderately sorted deposits of the central vent. Better sorting is attributed to recycling of kimberlite debris by multiple eruptions through the unconsolidated volcaniclastic pile and associated collapse events. Post-emplacement alteration varies in intensity, but in all cases, has overprinted the primary groundmass and matrix, in CK and VK, respectively. Erosion has since removed all limestone cover.

Criteria for interpreting kimberlite as coherent: Insights from the Muskox and Jericho kimberlites (Nunavut, Canada)

The Jurassic Muskox and Jericho kimberlites (Northern Slave Province, Nunavut, Canada) contain a variety of facies exhibiting different geometries, contact relationships, internal organisation, country rock abundance and olivine shapes, although many have similar matrix/groundmass mineralogies and textures. Five facies are examined that either have characteristics consistent with coherent rocks in general (i.e. intrusive and extrusive non-fragmental rocks) or are mineralogically and texturally similar to kimberlite described as coherent (or apparent coherent). Three facies are interpreted as coherent on the basis of: (1) geological setting, (2) apparent-porphyritic texture, (3) sharp contacts with fragmental kimberlite, (4) relative abundance of elongate and unbroken olivine crystals and (5) paucity of country rock xenoliths, while the remaining two facies are interpreted as fragmental on the basis of: (1) the gradational contacts with demonstrably fragmental kimberlite, (2) relative abundance and range of sizes of country rock lithic clasts and (3) numerous broken olivine crystals. Comparisons are made with coherent and apparent-coherent kimberlite from the literature. Our three coherent facies are similar to literature reported coherent kimberlite dykes hosted in country rock (CKd) in terms of internal organisation, low abundance of country rock xenoliths, and apparent-porphyritic texture. Conversely, our two fragmental facies share attributes with previously described pipe-filling coherent and apparent-coherent kimberlite (CKpf) in terms of geometry, internal organisation and abundance of country rock xenoliths. We conclude that CKd and most CKpf, although similar in matrix/groundmass mineralogy and texture, can be distinguished on the basis of internal organisation, country rock lithic clast abundance, texture (e.g. apparent-porphyritic texture) and possibly olivine crystal shapes and suggest that fragmental kimberlite is more common than reported.

Characteristics and alteration origins of matrix minerals in volcaniclastic kimberlite of the Muskox pipe (Nunavut, Canada)

The matrix of volcaniclastic kimberlite (VK) from the Muskox pipe (Northern Slave Province, Nunavut, Canada) is interpreted to represent an overprint of an original clastic matrix. Muskox VK is subdivided into three different matrix mineral assemblages that reflect differences in the proportions of original primary matrix constituents, temperature of formation and nature of the altering fluids. Using whole rock X-ray fluorescence (XRF), whole rock X-ray diffraction (XRD), microprobe analyses, back-scatter electron (BSE) imaging, petrography and core logging, we find that most matrix minerals (serpentine, phlogopite, chlorite, saponite, monticellite, Fe-Ti oxides and calcite) lack either primary igneous or primary clastic textures. The mineralogy and textures are most consistent with formation through alteration overprinting of an original clastic matrix that form by retrograde reactions as the deposit cools, or, in the case of calcite, by precipitation from Ca-bearing fluids into a secondary porosity. The first mineral assemblage consists largely of serpentine, phlogopite, calcite, Fe-Ti oxides and monticellite and occurs in VK with relatively fresh framework clasts. Alteration reactions, driven by deuteric fluids derived from the juvenile constituents, promote the crystallisation of minerals that indicate relatively high temperatures of formation (> 400 °C). Lower-temperature minerals are not present because permeability was occluded before the deposit cooled to low temperatures, thus shielding the facies from further interaction with fluids. The other two matrix mineral assemblages consist largely of serpentine, phlogopite, calcite, +/- diopside, and +/- chlorite. They form in VK that contains more country rock, which may have caused the deposit to be cooler upon emplacement. Most framework components are completely altered, suggesting that larger volumes of fluids drove the alteration reactions. These fluids were likely of meteoric provenance and became heated by the volcaniclastic debris when they percolated into the VK infill. Most alteration reactions ceased at temperatures > 200 °C, as indicated by the absence or paucity of lower-temperature phases in most samples, such as saponite. Recognition that Muskox VK contains an original clastic matrix is a necessary first step for evaluating the textural configuration, which is important for reconstructing the physical processes responsible for the formation of the deposit.

Petrology and textural classification of the Jericho kimberlite, northern Slave Province, Nunavut, Canada

The paper presents data on petrology, bulk rock and mineral compositions, and textural classification of the Middle Jurassic Jericho kimberlite (Slave craton, Canada). The kimberlite was emplaced as three steep-sided pipes in granite that was overlain by limestones and minor soft sediments. The pipes are infilled with hypabyssal and pyroclastic kimberlites and connected to a satellite pipe by a dyke. The Jericho kimberlite is classified as a Group Ia, lacking groundmass tetraferriphlogopite and containing monticellite pseudomorphs. The kimberlite formed, during several consecutive emplacement events of compositionally different batches of kimberlite magma. Core-logging and thin-section observations identified at least two phases of hypabyssal kimberlites and three phases of pyroclastic kimberlites. Hypabyssal kimberlites intruded as a main dyke (HK1) and as late small-volume aphanitic and vesicular dykes. Massive pyroclastic kimberlite (MPK1) predominantly filled the northern and southern lobes of the pipe and formed from magma different from the HK1 magma. The MPK1 magma crystallized Ti-, Fe-, and Cr-rich phlogopite without rims of barian phlogopite, and clinopyroxene and spinel without atoll structures. MPK1 textures, superficially reminiscent of tuffisitic kimberlite, are caused by pervasive contamination by granite xenoliths. The next explosive events filled the central lobe with two varieties of pyroclastic kimberlite: (1) massive and (2) weakly bedded, normally graded pyroclastic kimberlite. The geology of the Jericho pipe differs from the geology of South African or the Prairie kimberlites, but may resemble Lac de Gras pipes, in which deeper erosion removed upper fades of resedimented kimberlites.

Difficulties in distinguishing coherent from fragmental kimberlite: A case study of the Muskox pipe (Northern Slave Province, Nunavut, Canada)

Kimberlite drill core from the Muskox pipe (Northern Slave Province, Nunavut, Canada) highlights the difficulties in distinguishing coherent from fragmental kimberlite and assessing the volcanological implications of the apparent gradational contact between the two facies. Using field log data, petrography, and several methods to quantify crystal and xenolith sizes and abundances, the pipe is divided into two main facies, dark-coloured massive kimberlite (DMK) and light-coloured fragmental kimberlite (LFK). DMK is massive and homogeneous, containing country-rock lithic clasts (~ 10%) and olivine macrocrysts (~ 15%) set in a dark, typically well crystallised, interstitial medium containing abundant microphenocrysts of olivine (~ 15%), opaques and locally monticellite, all of which are enclosed by mostly serpentine. In general, LFK is also massive and structureless, containing ~ 20% country-rock lithic clasts and ~ 12% olivine macrocrysts. These framework components are supported in a matrix of serpentinized olivine microphenocrysts (10%), microlites of clinopyroxene, and phlogopite, all of which are enclosed by serpentine. The contact between DMK and LFK facies is rarely sharp, and more commonly is gradational (from 5 cm to ~ 10 m). The contact divides the pipe roughly in half and is sub-vertical with an irregular shape, locally placing DMK facies both above and below the fragmental rocks. Most features of DMK are consistent with a fragmental origin, particularly the crystal- and xenolith-rich nature (~ 55-65%), but there are some similarities with rocks described as coherent kimberlite in the literature. We discuss possible origins of gradational contacts and consider the significance for understanding the origin of the DMK facies, with an emphasis on the complications of alteration overprinting of primary textures.

Gender-specific differences of interaction between obesity and air pollution on stroke and cardiovascular diseases in Chinese adults from a high pollution range area: A large population based cross sectional study

Background Little information exists regarding the interaction effects of obesity with long-term air pollution exposure on cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) and stroke in areas of high pollution. The aim of the present study is to examine whether obesity modifies CVD-related associations among people living in an industrial province of northeast China. Methods We studied 24,845 Chinese adults, aged 18 to 74 years old, from three Northeastern Chinese cities in 2009 utilizing a cross-sectional study design. Body weight and height were measured by trained observers. Overweight and obesity were defined as a body mass index (BMI) between 25–29.9 and ≥ 30 kg/m2, respectively. Prevalence rate and related risk factors of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were investigated by a questionnaire. Three-year (2006–2008) average concentrations of particulate matter (PM10), sulfur dioxide (SO2), nitrogen dioxides (NO2), and ozone (O3) were measured by fixed monitoring stations. All the participants lived within 1 km of air monitoring sites. Two-level logistic regression (personal level and district-specific pollutant level) was used to examine these effects, controlling for covariates. Results We observed significant interactions between exposure and obesity on CVDs and stroke. The associations between annual pollutant concentrations and CVDs and stroke were strongest in obese subjects (OR 1.15–1.47 for stroke, 1.33–1.59 for CVDs), less strong in overweight subjects (OR 1.22–1.35 for stroke, 1.07–1.13 for CVDs), and weakest in normal weight subjects (OR ranged from 0.98–1.01 for stroke, 0.93–1.15 for CVDs). When stratified by gender, these interactions were significant only in women. Conclusions Study findings indicate that being overweight and obese may enhance the effects of air pollution on the prevalence of CVDs and stroke in Northeastern metropolitan China. Further studies will be needed to investigate the temporality of BMI relative to exposure and onset of disease.

Lock the gate: Fracking, investor-state dispute settlement, and the Trans-Pacific Partnership

There has been much debate about the relationship between international trade, the environment, biodiversity protection, and climate change.The Obama Administration has pushed such issues into sharp relief, with its advocacy for sweeping international trade agreements, such as the Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Trans-Atlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. There has been much public concern about the impact of the mega-trade deals upon the protection of the environment. In particular, there has been a debate about whether the Trans-Pacific Partnership will promote dirty fracking. Will the Trans-Pacific Partnership transform the Pacific Rim into a Gasland?There has been a particular focus upon investor-state dispute settlement being used by unconventional mining companies. Investor-state dispute settlement is a mechanism which enables foreign investors to seek compensation from national governments at international arbitration tribunals. In her prescient 2009 book, The Expropriation of Environmental Governance, Kyla Tienhaara foresaw the rise of investor-state dispute resolution of environmental matters. She observed:'Over the last decade there has been an explosive increase of cases investment arbitration. This is significant in terms of not only the number of disputes that have arisen and the number of states that have been involved, but also the novel types of dispute that have emerged. Rather than solely involving straightforward incidences of nationalization or breach of contract, modern disputes often revolve around public policy measures and implicate sensitive issues such as access to drinking water, development on sacred indigenous sites and the protection of biodiversity.'In her study, Kyla Tienhaara observed that investment agreements, foreign investment contracts and investment arbitration had significant implications for the protection for the protection of the environment. She concluded that arbitrators have made it clear that they can, and will, award compensation to investors that claim to have been harmed by environmental regulation. She also found that some of the cases suggest that the mere threat of arbitration is sufficient to chill environmental policy development. Tienhaara was equally concerned by the possibility that a government may use the threat of arbitration as an excuse or cover for its failure to improve environmental regulation. In her view, it is evident that arbitrators have expropriated certain fundamental aspects of environmental governance from states. Tienhaara held: As a result, environmental regulation has become riskier, more expensive, and less democratic, especially in developing countries. This article provides a comparative analysis of the battles over fracking, investment, trade, and the environment in a number of key jurisdictions including the United States, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand. Part 1 focuses upon the United States. Part 2 examines the dispute between the Lone Pine Resources Inc. and the Government of Canada over a fracking moratorium in Quebec. Part 3 charts the rise of the Lock the Gate Alliance in Australia, and its demands for a moratorium in respect of coal seam gas and unconventional mining. Part 4 focuses upon parallel developments in New Zealand. This article concludes that Pacific Rim countries should withdraw from investor-state dispute settlement procedures, because of the threat posed to environmental regulation in respect of air, land, and water.

Incident reporting culture in recreational hot air ballooning

Hot air ballooning incidents are relatively rare; however, they have a high potential to be fatal. In order to inform appropriate safety interventions it is first necessary to understand the causal factors which lead to incidents and near-misses, which requires a formal incident report database. The Australian Balloon Federation (ABF) advocates the reporting of recreational hot air ballooning incidents, by reporting directly to the ABF safety officer or by completing an online incident report form. The objective of this paper is to understand how widely used the reporting system is and whether there are any perceived barriers to reporting. Sixty-nine balloonists participated in an online survey about their experience of incident reporting. Survey respondents were mostly male (11 female), experienced balloonists (mean years’ experience ballooning 19.51y with a SD 11.19). Sixty respondents (87%) held a pilot license. The majority (82.6%) of respondents were aware of the ABF incident reporting system. Over half (62.3%) had been involved in a ballooning incident or near-miss in Australia. However, 40% of those who had an incident or near-miss did not report it to the ABF and only 15.9% of all those surveyed had used the online incident report form. There was some disagreement regarding when it was appropriate to report an incident or near miss. Some respondents felt an incident or near miss should only be reported if it resulted in injury or damage, while others said near-misses should also be reported. The most frequent barriers identified were: a lack of understanding of when to report to the ABF; trivializing of incidents; and concerns about the system itself Steps should be taken to increase understanding of the system purpose and long term benefits. Specifically, reporting near-misses should be encouraged. This study is significant because it is the first to examine reporting practices in non-motorised recreational aviation.

Current practice in nutrition diagnosis and intervention for the management of Parkinson's disease in Australia and Canada

Aim To document current practice by dietitians in Australia and Canada in the nutrition management of Parkinson's disease. This will help identify priority areas for review and development of practice guidelines and direct future research. Methods Current practice in the phases of the Nutrition Care Plan was captured using an online survey distributed to Dietitians Association of Australia members and Practice-Based Evidence in Nutrition subscribers through their email newsletters. The results of the diagnosis, intervention and monitoring phases are presented here. Results Eighty-four dietitians responded. There was consistency in practice for nutrition issues that are encountered in other populations, such as malnutrition and constipation. There was more variation in practice in the nutrition issues that are more specific to Parkinson's disease, such as nutrition and meal interactions with medication. A lack of awareness of emerging treatments, such as deep brain stimulation surgery, appears to exist in the responding dietitians. Conclusions The variation in practice that was present for the nutrition issues specific to Parkinson's disease may reflect the lack of quality evidence and subsequently evidence-based guidelines in these areas. Work to provide background information about treatment options and to translate current evidence for the nutrition issues that are specific to Parkinson's disease into practice recommendations should be completed.

Whole-body cryotherapy (extreme cold air exposure) for preventing and treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults

Background Recovery strategies are often usedwith the intention of preventing orminimisingmuscle soreness after exercise. Whole-body cryotherapy, which involves a single or repeated exposure(s) to extremely cold dry air (below -100 °C) in a specialised chamber or cabin for two to four minutes per exposure, is currently being advocated as an effective intervention to reduce muscle soreness after exercise. Objectives To assess the effects (benefits and harms) of whole-body cryotherapy (extreme cold air exposure) for preventing and treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults. Search methods We searched the Cochrane Bone, Joint and Muscle Trauma Group Specialised Register, the Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, MEDLINE, EMBASE, CINAHL, the British Nursing Index and the Physiotherapy Evidence Database. We also searched the reference lists of articles, trial registers and conference proceedings, handsearched journals and contacted experts. The searches were run in August 2015. Selection criteria We aimed to include randomised and quasi-randomised trials that compared the use of whole-body cryotherapy (WBC) versus a passive or control intervention (rest, no treatment or placebo treatment) or active interventions including cold or contrast water immersion, active recovery and infrared therapy for preventing or treating muscle soreness after exercise in adults. We also aimed to include randomised trials that compared different durations or dosages of WBC. Our prespecified primary outcomes were muscle soreness, subjective recovery (e.g. tiredness, well-being) and adverse effects. Data collection and analysis Two review authors independently screened search results, selected studies, assessed risk of bias and extracted and cross-checked data. Where appropriate, we pooled results of comparable trials. The random-effects model was used for pooling where there was substantial heterogeneity.We assessed the quality of the evidence using GRADE. Main results Four laboratory-based randomised controlled trials were included. These reported results for 64 physically active predominantly young adults (mean age 23 years). All but four participants were male. Two trials were parallel group trials (44 participants) and two were cross-over trials (20 participants). The trials were heterogeneous, including the type, temperature, duration and frequency of WBC, and the type of preceding exercise. None of the trials reported active surveillance of predefined adverse events. All four trials had design features that carried a high risk of bias, potentially limiting the reliability of their findings. The evidence for all outcomes was classified as ’very low’ quality based on the GRADE criteria. Two comparisons were tested: WBC versus control (rest or no WBC), tested in four studies; and WBC versus far-infrared therapy, also tested in one study. No studies compared WBC with other active interventions, such as cold water immersion, or different types and applications of WBC. All four trials compared WBC with rest or no WBC. There was very low quality evidence for lower self-reported muscle soreness (pain at rest) scores after WBC at 1 hour (standardised mean difference (SMD) -0.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) -1.42 to -0.12; 20 participants, 2 cross-over trials); 24 hours (SMD -0.57, 95%CI -1.48 to 0.33) and 48 hours (SMD -0.58, 95% CI -1.37 to 0.21), both with 38 participants, 2 cross-over studies, 1 parallel group study; and 72 hours (SMD -0.65, 95% CI -2.54 to 1.24; 29 participants, 1 cross-over study, 1 parallel group study). Of note is that the 95% CIs also included either no between-group differences or a benefit in favour of the control group. One small cross-over trial (9 participants) found no difference in tiredness but better well-being after WBC at 24 hours post exercise. There was no report of adverse events. One small cross-over trial involving nine well-trained runners provided very low quality evidence of lower levels of muscle soreness after WBC, when compared with infrared therapy, at 1 hour follow-up, but not at 24 or 48 hours. The same trial found no difference in well-being but less tiredness after WBC at 24 hours post exercise. There was no report of adverse events. Authors’ conclusions There is insufficient evidence to determine whether whole-body cryotherapy (WBC) reduces self-reportedmuscle soreness, or improves subjective recovery, after exercise compared with passive rest or no WBC in physically active young adult males. There is no evidence on the use of this intervention in females or elite athletes. The lack of evidence on adverse events is important given that the exposure to extreme temperature presents a potential hazard. Further high-quality, well-reported research in this area is required and must provide detailed reporting of adverse events.

The political decisions and policy leading to the Royal Australian Air Force having no fighters or interceptors for the coming war against Japan

The thesis provides an understanding of the ignored need for a modern air defence system for the Australian air force to meet the growing threat from Japan in the 1930s and early 1940s. The quality of advice provided to, and accepted by, Australian politicians was misleading and eliminated the need for fighters and interceptors despite glaring evidence to the contrary. Based on primary source material, including official documents, Allied and Axis pilot memoirs, popular aviation literature and newspaper and magazine articles and interviews, the thesis highlights the inability of Australian politicians to face the reality of the international situation.

Transition to an unsteady flow induced by a fin on the sidewall of a differentially heated air-filled square cavity and heat transfer

The transition from a steady to an unsteady flow induced by an adiabatic fin on the sidewall of a differentially heated air-filled cavity is numerically investigated. Numerical simulations have been performed over the range of Rayleigh numbers from Ra = 105–109. The temporal development and spatial structures of natural convection flows in the cavity with a fin are described. It has been demonstrated that the fin may induce the transition to an unsteady flow and the critical Rayleigh number for the occurrence of the transition is between 3.72 × 106 and 3.73 × 106. Furthermore, the peak frequencies of the oscillations triggered by different mechanisms are obtained through spectral analysis. It has been found that the flow rate through the cavity with a fin is larger than that without a fin under the unsteady flow, indicating that the fin may improve the unsteady flow in the cavity.

Development and validation of a multilevel model for predicting workload under routine and nonroutine conditions in an air traffic management center

Objective: The aim of this study was to develop a model capable of predicting variability in the mental workload experienced by frontline operators under routine and nonroutine conditions. Background: Excess workload is a risk that needs to be managed in safety-critical industries. Predictive models are needed to manage this risk effectively yet are difficult to develop. Much of the difficulty stems from the fact that workload prediction is a multilevel problem. Method: A multilevel workload model was developed in Study 1 with data collected from an en route air traffic management center. Dynamic density metrics were used to predict variability in workload within and between work units while controlling for variability among raters. The model was cross-validated in Studies 2 and 3 with the use of a high-fidelity simulator. Results: Reported workload generally remained within the bounds of the 90% prediction interval in Studies 2 and 3. Workload crossed the upper bound of the prediction interval only under nonroutine conditions. Qualitative analyses suggest that nonroutine events caused workload to cross the upper bound of the prediction interval because the controllers could not manage their workload strategically. Conclusion: The model performed well under both routine and nonroutine conditions and over different patterns of workload variation. Application: Workload prediction models can be used to support both strategic and tactical workload management. Strategic uses include the analysis of historical and projected workflows and the assessment of staffing needs. Tactical uses include the dynamic reallocation of resources to meet changes in demand.