Estimating present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the Australian coastline

The occurrence of extreme water level events along low-lying, highly populated and/or developed coastlines can lead to devastating impacts on coastal infrastructure. Therefore it is very important that the probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform flood and coastal management and for future planning. The aim of this study was to provide estimates of present day extreme total water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, arising from combinations of mean sea level, astronomical tide and storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical storms, but exclusive of surface gravity waves. The study has been undertaken in two main stages. In the first stage, a high-resolution (~10 km along the coast) hydrodynamic depth averaged model has been configured for the whole coastline of Australia using the Danish Hydraulics Institute’s Mike21 modelling suite of tools. The model has been forced with astronomical tidal levels, derived from the TPX07.2 global tidal model, and meteorological fields, from the US National Center for Environmental Prediction’s global reanalysis, to generate a 61-year (1949 to 2009) hindcast of water levels. This model output has been validated against measurements from 30 tide gauge sites around Australia with long records. At each of the model grid points located around the coast, time series of annual maxima and the several highest water levels for each year were derived from the multi-decadal water level hindcast and have been fitted to extreme value distributions to estimate exceedance probabilities. Stage 1 provided a reliable estimate of the present day total water level exceedance probabilities around southern Australia, which is mainly impacted by extra-tropical storms. However, as the meteorological fields used to force the hydrodynamic model only weakly include the effects of tropical cyclones the resultant water levels exceedance probabilities were underestimated around western, northern and north-eastern Australia at higher return periods. Even if the resolution of the meteorological forcing was adequate to represent tropical cyclone-induced surges, multi-decadal periods yielded insufficient instances of tropical cyclones to enable the use of traditional extreme value extrapolation techniques. Therefore, in the second stage of the study, a statistical model of tropical cyclone tracks and central pressures was developed using histroic observations. This model was then used to generate synthetic events that represented 10,000 years of cyclone activity for the Australia region, with characteristics based on the observed tropical cyclones over the last ~40 years. Wind and pressure fields, derived from these synthetic events using analytical profile models, were used to drive the hydrodynamic model to predict the associated storm surge response. A random time period was chosen, during the tropical cyclone season, and astronomical tidal forcing for this period was included to account for non-linear interactions between the tidal and surge components. For each model grid point around the coast, annual maximum total levels for these synthetic events were calculated and these were used to estimate exceedance probabilities. The exceedance probabilities from stages 1 and 2 were then combined to provide a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia.

The cost-effectiveness of total laparoscopic hysterectomy compared to total abdominal hysterectomy for the treatment of early stage endometrial cancer

Objective To summarise how costs and health benefits will change with the adoption of total laparoscopic hysterectomy compared to total abdominal hysterectomy for the treatment of early stage endometrial cancer. Design Cost-effectiveness modelling using the information from a randomised controlled trial. Participants Two hypothetical modelled cohorts of 1000 individuals undergoing total laparoscopic hysterectomy and total abdominal hysterectomy. Outcome measures Surgery costs; hospital bed days used; total healthcare costs; quality-adjusted life years; and net monetary benefits. Results For 1000 individuals receiving total laparoscopic hysterectomy surgery, the costs were $509 575 higher, 3548 hospital fewer bed days were used and total health services costs were reduced by $3 746 221. There were 39.13 more quality-adjusted life years for a 5 year period following surgery. Conclusions The adoption of total laparoscopic hysterectomy is almost certainly a good decision for health services policy makers. There is 100% probability that it will be cost saving to health services, a 86.8% probability that it will increase health benefits and a 99.5% chance that it returns net monetary benefits greater than zero.

Biaxial fiber Bragg grating accelerometer using axial and transverse forces

We demonstrate the first biaxial fiber Bragg grating (FBG) accelerometer using axial and transverse forces. An inertial object is fixed at the middle of two FBGs inscribed in one fiber. The difference between the resonant wavelengths of the two FBGs can distinguish the acceleration in the axial direction, while being insensitive in the transverse direction. The average of the resonant wavelengths of the two FBGs can distinguish the acceleration in the transverse direction, while being insensitive in the axial direction. In the experiments, when the transverse direction was vertical, the crest-to-trough sensitivity at 5 Hz and resonant frequency of the average were 0.545 nm/g and 34.42 Hz, respectively. When the axial direction was vertical, those of the difference were 0.0454 nm/g and 900 Hz, respectively. For each FBG, the crest-to-trough sensitivity at 5 Hz and resonant frequency in the transverse/vertical direction were 24 and 1/26 times those in the axial/vertical direction, respectively.

Modelling total duration of traffic incidents including incident detection and recovery time

Traffic incidents are key contributors to non-recurrent congestion, potentially generating significant delay. Factors that influence the duration of incidents are important to understand so that effective mitigation strategies can be implemented. To identify and quantify the effects of influential factors, a methodology for studying total incident duration based on historical data from an ‘integrated database’ is proposed. Incident duration models are developed using a selected freeway segment in the Southeast Queensland, Australia network. The models include incident detection and recovery time as components of incident duration. A hazard-based duration modelling approach is applied to model incident duration as a function of a variety of factors that influence traffic incident duration. Parametric accelerated failure time survival models are developed to capture heterogeneity as a function of explanatory variables, with both fixed and random parameters specifications. The analysis reveals that factors affecting incident duration include incident characteristics (severity, type, injury, medical requirements, etc.), infrastructure characteristics (roadway shoulder availability), time of day, and traffic characteristics. The results indicate that event type durations are uniquely different, thus requiring different responses to effectively clear them. Furthermore, the results highlight the presence of unobserved incident duration heterogeneity as captured by the random parameter models, suggesting that additional factors need to be considered in future modelling efforts.

The effect of cryotherapy on the vascular regeneration following closed soft tissue trauma

INTRODUCTION Icing (cryotherapy) is being widely used for the treatment of closed soft tissue trauma (CSTT), such as those resulting from sport injuries. It is believed that cryotherapy induces vasoconstriction and through this mechanism reduces inflammation [1]. However, the impact of this technique on the healing of impaired vasculature and muscle injuries following trauma remains controversial. Recent evidence suggests that the muscle regeneration is delayed after cryotherapy [2]. Consequently, we aimed to investigate the effect of cryotherapy on the vascular morphology following CSTT using an experimental model in rats by contrast-enhanced micro-CT imaging. METHODS Fifty four rats were divided into three main groups: control (no injury, n=6), sham (CSTT but no icing treatment, n=24) and icing (CSTT, treated with one session of ice block massaged directly on the injured muscle for 20 minutes, n=24). The CSTT was induced to the left thigh (Biceps Femoris) of anaesthetised rats (Male, Wistar) to create a standardized and reproducible vascular and muscle injury using an impact device [3]. Following trauma, animals were euthanized after 1, 3, 7, and 28 days healing time (n=6 for each time point). For a three-dimensional vascular morphological assessment, the blood vessels of euthanised rats were flushed with heparinised saline and then perfused with a radio-opaque contrast agent (Microfil, MV 122, Flowtech, USA) using an infusion pump. Both hind-limbs were dissected, and then the injured and non-injured limbs were imaged using a micro-CT scanner (µCT 40, Scanco Medical, Switzerland) and total volume of the perfused blood vessels (TVV) was calculated. More detailed morphological parameters such as vessel volume (VV), diameter (VD), spacing (VSp), number (VN) and connectivity (VConn) were quantified through high resolution (6 µm), micro-CT-scanned biopsy samples (diameter: 8mm) taken directly from the region of the injured muscles. The biopsies were then analysed histologically to confirm the results derived from contrast-enhanced micro-CT imaging. RESULTS AND DISCUSSION The TVV was significantly higher in the injured legs compared to the non-injured legs at day 1 and 7 in the sham group and at day 28 in both sham and icing groups. The biopsies from the injured legs of the icing group showed a significant reduction in VV, VN, VD, VConn and an increase in VSp compared to those in the sham and control groups at days 1, 3 and 7, post injury. While the injured legs of the sham group exhibited a decrease in VN and VConn 28 days post trauma, indicating a return to the original values prior to trauma, these parameters had increased in the icing group (Figure 1). Also, at day 1 post injury, VV and VD of the injured legs were significantly higher in the sham group compared to the icing group, which may be attributed to the effect of vasoconstriction induced by icing. Further histomorphological evaluation of day 1 post injury, indicated that although cryotherapy significantly reduced the injury size and influx of inflammatory cells, including macrophages and neutrophils, a delay in vascular and muscle fiber regeneration was found at later time points confirming other reports from the literature [2]. CONCLUSIONS We have demonstrated using micro-CT imaging that the vascular morphology changes after CSTT, and that its recovery is affected by therapeutic modalities such as icing. This may be useful for the development of future clinical monitoring, diagnosis and treatment of CSTT. While icing reduces the swelling after trauma, our results suggest that it may delay the recovery of the vasculature in the injured tissue.

Improvement of the mode II interface fracture toughness of glass fiber reinforced plastics/aluminum laminates through vapor grown carbon fiber interleaves

The effects of acid treatment, vapor grown carbon fiber (VGCF) interlayer and the angle, i.e., 0° and 90°, between the rolling stripes of an aluminum (Al) plate and the fiber direction of glass fiber reinforced plastics (GFRP) on the mode II interlaminar mechanical properties of GFRP/Al laminates were investigated. The experimental results of an end notched flexure test demonstrate that the acid treatment and the proper addition of VGCF can effectively improve the critical load and mode II fracture toughness of GFRP/Al laminates. The specimens with acid treatment and 10 g m−2 VGCF addition possess the highest mode II fracture toughness, i.e., 269% and 385% increases in the 0° and 90° specimens, respectively compared to those corresponding pristine ones. Due to the induced anisotropy by the rolling stripes on the aluminum plate, the 90° specimens possess 15.3%–73.6% higher mode II fracture toughness compared to the 0° specimens. The improvement mechanisms were explored by the observation of crack propagation path and fracture surface with optical, laser scanning and scanning electron microscopies. Moreover, finite element analyses were carried out based on the cohesive zone model to verify the experimental fracture toughness and to predict the interface shear strength between the aluminum plates and GFRP laminates.

Total factor productivity growth and convergence in the petroleum industry : empirical analysis testing for convexity

While economic theory acknowledges that some features of technology (e.g., indivisibilities, economies of scale and specialization) can fundamentally violate the traditional convexity assumption, almost all empirical studies accept the convexity property on faith. In this contribution, we apply two alternative flexible production technologies to measure total factor productivity growth and test the significance of the convexity axiom using a nonparametric test of closeness between unknown distributions. Based on unique field level data on the petroleum industry, the empirical results reveal significant differences, indicating that this production technology is most likely non-convex. Furthermore, we also show the impact of convexity on answers to traditional convergence questions in the productivity growth literature.

Morphometric stability of the corneal subbasal nerve plexus in healthy individuals a 3-year longitudinal study using corneal confocal microscopy

Purpose We examined the age-dependent alterations and longitudinal course of subbasal nerve plexus (SNP) morphology in healthy individuals. Methods Laser-scanning corneal confocal microscopy, ocular screening, and health and metabolic assessment were performed on 64 healthy participants at baseline and at 12-month intervals for 3 years. At each annual visit, eight central corneal images of the SNP were selected and analyzed using a fully-automated analysis system to quantify corneal nerve fiber length (CNFL). Two linear mixed model approaches were fitted to examine the relationship between age and CNFL, and the longitudinal changes of CNFL over three years. Results At baseline, mean age was 51.9 ± 14.7 years. The cohort was sex balanced (χ2 = 0.56, P = 0.45). Age (t = 1.6, P = 0.12) and CNFL (t = -0.50, P = 0.62) did not differ between sexes. A total of 52 participants completed the 36-month visit and 49 participants completed all visits. Age had a significant effect on CNFL (F1,33 = 5.67, P = 0.02) with a linear decrease of 0.05 mm/mm2 in CNFL per one year increase in age. No significant change in CNFL was observed over the 36-month period (F1,55 = 0.69, P = 0.41). Conclusions The CNFL showed a stable course over a 36-month period in healthy individuals, although there was a slight linear reduction in CNFL with age. The findings of this study have implications for understanding the time-course of the effect of pathology and surgical or therapeutic interventions on the morphology of the SNP, and serves to confirm the suitability of CNFL as a screening/monitoring marker for peripheral neuropathies.

A novel method of Fiber Bragg Grating (FBG) strain modulation and its application in FBG accelerometers

This thesis has systemically investigated the possibility of improving one type of optical fiber sensors by using a novel mechanism. Many parameters of the sensor have been improved, and one outcome of this innovation is that civil structures, such as bridges and high-rise buildings, may be operated more safely and used longer.

Can measures of limb loading and dynamic stability during the squat maneuver provide an index of early functional recovery following unilateral total hip arthroplasty?

Objective: To investigate limb loading and dynamic stability during squatting in the early functional recovery of total hip arthroplasty (THA) patients. Design: Cohort study Setting: Inpatient rehabilitation clinic. Participants: A random sample of 61 THA patients (34♂/27♀; 62±9 yrs, 77±14 kg, 174±9 cm) was assessed twice, 13.2±3.8 days (PRE) and 26.6±3.3 days post-surgery (POST), and compared with a healthy reference group (REF) (22♂/16♀; 47±12yrs; 78±20kg; 175±10cm). Interventions: THA patients received two weeks of standard in-patient rehabilitation. Main Outcome Measure(s): Inter-limb vertical force distribution and dynamic stability during the squat maneuver, as defined by the root mean square (RMS) of the center of pressure in antero-posterior and medio-lateral directions, of operated (OP) and non-operated (NON)limbs. Self-reported function was assessed via FFb-H-OA 2.0 questionnaire. Results: At PRE, unloading of the OP limb was 15.8% greater (P<.001, d=1.070) and antero-posterior and medio-lateral center of pressure RMS were 30-34% higher in THA than REF P<.05). Unloading was reduced by 12.8% towards a more equal distribution from PRE to POST (P<.001, d=0.874). Although medio-lateral stability improved between PRE and POST (OP: 14.8%, P=.024, d=0.397; NON: 13.1%, P=.015, d=0.321), antero-posterior stability was not significantly different. Self-reported physical function improved by 15.8% (P<.001, d=0.965). Conclusion(s): THA patients unload the OP limb and are dynamically more unstable during squatting in the early rehabilitation phase following total hip replacement than healthy adults. Although loading symmetry and medio-lateral stability improved to the level of healthy adults with rehabilitation, antero-posterior stability remained impaired. Measures of dynamic stability and load symmetry during squatting provide quantitative information that can be used to clinically monitor early functional recovery from THA.

Bisphenol A exposure is not associated with area-level socioeconomic index in Australian children using pooled urine samples

Bisphenol A (BPA) is used extensively in food-contact materials and has been detected routinely in populations worldwide, and this exposure has been linked to a range of negative health outcomes in humans. There is some evidence of an association between BPA and different socioeconomic variables which may be the result of different dietary patterns. The aim of this study was to conduct a preliminary investigation of the association between BPA and socioeconomic status in Australian children using pooled urine specimens and an area level socioeconomic index. Surplus pathology urine specimens collected from children aged 0-15 years in Queensland, Australia as samples of convenience (n = 469) were pooled by age, sex and area level socioeconomic index (n = 67 pools), and analysed for total BPA using online solid phase extraction LC-MS/MS. Concentration ranged from 1.08-27.4 ng/ml with geometric mean 2.57 ng/ml, and geometric mean exposure was estimated as 70.3 ng/kg d-1. Neither BPA concentration nor excretion was associated with age or sex, and the authors found no evidence of an association with socioeconomic status. These results suggest that BPA exposure is not associated with socioeconomic status in the Australian population due to relatively homogenous exposures in Australia, or that the socioeconomic gradient is relatively slight in Australia compared with other OECD countries.

CORR Insights® : loss of cement-bone interlock in retrieved tibial components from total knee arthroplasties

Most surgeons cement the tibial component in total knee replacement surgery. Mid-term registry data from a number of countries, including those from the United Kingdom and Australia, support the excellent survivorship of cemented tibial components. In spite of this success, results can always be improved, and cementing technique can play a role. Cementing technique on the tibia is not standardized, and surgeons still differ about the best ways to deliver cement into the cancellous bone of the upper tibia. Questions remain regarding whether to use a gun or a syringe to inject the cement into the cancellous bone of the tibial plateau . The ideal cement penetration into the tibial plateau is debated, though most reports suggest that 4 mm to 10 mm is ideal. Thicker mantles are thought to be dangerous due to the risk of bone necrosis, but there is little in the literature to support this contention...

The effect of knee flexion contracture following total knee arthroplasty on the energy cost of walking.

This study evaluated the energy cost of walking (Cw) with knee flexion contractures (FC) simulated with a knee brace, in total knee arthroplasty (TKA) recipients (n=16) and normal controls (n=15), and compared it to baseline (no brace). There was no significant difference in Cw between the groups at baseline but TKA recipients walked slower (P=0.048) and with greater knee flexion in this condition (P=0.003). Simulated FC significantly increased Cw in both groups (TKA P=0.020, control P=0.002) and this occurred when FC exceeded 20° in the TKA group and 15° in the controls. Reported perceived exertion was only significantly increased by FC in the control group (control P<0.001, TKA P=0.058). Simulated knee FCs less than 20° do not increase Cw or perceived exertion in TKA recipients.