Outbreak detection algorithms for seasonal disease data : a case study using Ross River virus disease

Background Detection of outbreaks is an important part of disease surveillance. Although many algorithms have been designed for detecting outbreaks, few have been specifically assessed against diseases that have distinct seasonal incidence patterns, such as those caused by vector-borne pathogens. Methods We applied five previously reported outbreak detection algorithms to Ross River virus (RRV) disease data (1991-2007) for the four local government areas (LGAs) of Brisbane, Emerald, Redland and Townsville in Queensland, Australia. The methods used were the Early Aberration Reporting System (EARS) C1, C2 and C3 methods, negative binomial cusum (NBC), historical limits method (HLM), Poisson outbreak detection (POD) method and the purely temporal SaTScan analysis. Seasonally-adjusted variants of the NBC and SaTScan methods were developed. Some of the algorithms were applied using a range of parameter values, resulting in 17 variants of the five algorithms. Results The 9,188 RRV disease notifications that occurred in the four selected regions over the study period showed marked seasonality, which adversely affected the performance of some of the outbreak detection algorithms. Most of the methods examined were able to detect the same major events. The exception was the seasonally-adjusted NBC methods that detected an excess of short signals. The NBC, POD and temporal SaTScan algorithms were the only methods that consistently had high true positive rates and low false positive and false negative rates across the four study areas. The timeliness of outbreak signals generated by each method was also compared but there was no consistency across outbreaks and LGAs. Conclusions This study has highlighted several issues associated with applying outbreak detection algorithms to seasonal disease data. In lieu of a true gold standard, a quantitative comparison is difficult and caution should be taken when interpreting the true positives, false positives, sensitivity and specificity.

Adaptations to a subterranean environment and longevity revealed by the analysis of mole rat genomes

Subterranean mammals spend their lives in dark, unventilated environments that are rich in carbon dioxide and ammonia and low in oxygen. Many of these animals are also long-lived and exhibit reduced aging-associated diseases, such as neurodegenerative disorders and cancer. We sequenced the genome of the Damaraland mole rat (DMR, Fukomys damarensis) and improved the genome assembly of the naked mole rat (NMR, Heterocephalus glaber). Comparative genome analyses, along with the transcriptomes of related subterranean rodents, revealed candidate molecular adaptations for subterranean life and longevity, including a divergent insulin peptide, expression of oxygen-carrying globins in the brain, prevention of high CO2-induced pain perception, and enhanced ammonia detoxification. Juxtaposition of the genomes of DMR and other more conventional animals with the genome of NMR revealed several truly exceptional NMR features: unusual thermogenesis, an aberrant melatonin system, pain insensitivity, and unique processing of 28S rRNA. Together, these genomes and transcriptomes extend our understanding of subterranean adaptations, stress resistance, and longevity.

Spatial analysis of risk factors for transmission of the Barmah forest virus in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is the second most common mosquito-borne disease in Australia but few data are available on the risk factors. We assessed the impact of spatial climatic, socioeconomic and ecological factors on the transmission of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia, using spatial regression. All our analyses indicate that spatial lag models provide a superior fit to the data compared to spatial error and ordinary least square models. The residuals of the spatial lag models were found to be uncorrelated, indicating that the models adequately account for spatial and temporal autocorrelation. Our results revealed that minimum temperature, distance from coast and low tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease in coastal areas, whereas minimum temperature and high tide were negatively and rainfall was positively associated with BFV disease (all P-value.

Emerging methods in using GIS to analyse Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is an emerging mosquito-borne disease in Australia. We aimed to outline some recent methods in using GIS for the analysis of BFV disease in Queensland, Australia. A large database of geocoded BFV cases has been established in conjunction with population data. The database has been used in recently published studies conducted by the authors to determine spatio-temporal BFV disease hotspots and spatial patterns using spatial autocorrelation and semi-variogram analysis in conjunction with the development of interpolated BFV disease standardised incidence maps. This paper briefly outlines spatial analysis methodologies using GIS tools used in those studies. This paper summarises methods and results from previous studies by the authors, and presents a GIS methodology to be used in future spatial analytical studies in attempt to enhance the understanding of BFV disease in Queensland. The methodology developed is useful in improving the analysis of BFV disease data and will enhance the understanding of the BFV disease distribution in Queensland, Australia.

Medical and nursing students perceived knowledge, attitudes, and practices concerning human immunodeficiency virus

Objective. To assess medical and nursing students’ knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) regarding human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) in Fiji. Methods. A cross-sectional study of 275 medical and 252 nursing students that participated in a questionnaire survey on HIV KAP. Data was analysed according to their gender, program of study, and academic year. Results. The mean HIV knowledge (HK) and attitude scores were 16.0 and 41.3, respectively. Mean HK score was significantly higher in males compared to females. Significant positive correlations were found between HK and academic year for medical () and nursing () students and between HK and attitude scores (). The majority of students indicated fear in contracting HIV through clinical practice and felt that health care workers have the right to know a patients HIV status for their own safety. The majority would wear gloves to touch a patient if suspected of HIV. Conclusions. The study found a high level of HIV knowledge and positive attitude towards HIV patients. However, respondents also displayed negative attitudes and unacceptable practices probably due to fear. Training institutions need to ensure that students gain accurate knowledge on HIV especially on transmission routes to allay the fear of caring for HIV-infected patients.

Ross River virus disease activity associated with naturally occurring non-tidal flood events in Australia : A systematic review

Ross River virus (RRV) disease is the most common and widespread mosquito-borne disease in Australia, resulting in considerable health and economic cost to communities. While naturally occurring non-tidal flood events may enhance mosquito abundance, little is known about the impact of such events on RRV transmission. This paper critically reviews the existing evidence for an association between naturally occurring non-tidal flood events and RRV transmission. A systematic literature search was conducted on RRV transmission related to flooding and inundation from rain and riverine overflow. Overall, the evidence to support a positive association between flooding and RRV outbreaks is largely circumstantial, with the literature mostly reporting only coincidental occurrence between the two. However, for the Murray River, river flow and height (surrogates of flooding) were positively and significantly associated with RRV transmission. The association between non-tidal flooding and RRV transmission has not been studied comprehensively. More frequent flood events arising from climate change may result in increased outbreaks of RRV disease. Understanding the link between flood events and RRV transmission is necessary if resources for mosquito spraying and public health warnings are to be utilized more effectively and efficiently.

Inducible resistance to maize streak virus

Maize streak virus (MSV), which causes maize streak disease (MSD), is the major viral pathogenic constraint on maize production in Africa. Type member of the Mastrevirus genus in the family Geminiviridae, MSV has a 2.7 kb, single-stranded circular DNA genome encoding a coat protein, movement protein, and the two replication-associated proteins Rep and RepA. While we have previously developed MSV-resistant transgenic maize lines constitutively expressing ‘‘dominant negative mutant’’ versions of the MSV Rep, the only transgenes we could use were those that caused no developmental defects during the regeneration of plants in tissue culture. A better transgene expression system would be an inducible one, where resistance-conferring transgenes are expressed only in MSV-infected cells. However, most known inducible transgene expression systems are hampered by background or ‘‘leaky’’ expression in the absence of the inducer. Here we describe an adaptation of the recently developed INPACT system to express MSV-derived resistance genes in cell culture. Split gene cassette constructs (SGCs) were developed containing three different transgenes in combination with three different promoter sequences. In each SGC, the transgene was split such that it would be translatable only in the presence of an infecting MSV’s replication associated protein. We used a quantitative real-time PCR assay to show that one of these SGCs (pSPLITrepIII-Rb-Ubi) inducibly inhibits MSV replication as efficiently as does a constitutively expressed transgene that has previously proven effective in protecting transgenic maize from MSV. In addition, in our cell-culture based assay pSPLITrepIII-Rb-Ubi inhibited replication of diverse MSV strains, and even, albeit to a lesser extent, of a different mastrevirus species. The application of this new technology to MSV resistance in maize could allow a better, more acceptable product.

The race to patent the SARS virus: The TRIPS agreement and access to essential medicines

This article considers the race to sequence the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome virus ('the SARS virus') in light of the debate over patent law and access to essential medicines. Part II evaluates the claims of public research institutions in Canada, the United States, and Hong Kong, and commercial companies, to patent rights in respect of the SARS virus. It highlights the dilemma of ’defensive patenting' - the tension between securing private patent rights and facilitating public disclosure of information and research. Part III considers the race to patent the SARS virus in light of wider policy debates over gene patents. It examines the application of such patent criteria as novelty, inventive step, utility, and secret use. It contends that there is a need to reform the patent system to accommodate the global nature of scientific inquiry, the unique nature of genetics, and the pace of technological change. Part IV examines the role played by the World Trade Organization and the World Health Organization in dealing with patent law and access to essential medicines. The article contends that there is a need to ensure that the patent system is sufficiently flexible and adaptable to accommodate international research efforts on infectious diseases.

Characterization of epitopes for virus-neutralizing monoclonal antibodies to Ross River virus E2 using phage-displayed random peptide libraries

Ross River virus (RRV) is the predominant cause of epidemic polyarthritis in Australia, yet the antigenic determinants are not well defined. We aimed to characterize epitope(s) on RRV-E2 for a panel of monoclonal antibodies (MAbs) that recognize overlapping conformational epitopes on the E2 envelope protein of RRV and that neutralize virus infection of cells in vitro. Phage-displayed random peptide libraries were probed with the MAbs T1E7, NB3C4, and T10C9 using solution-phase and solid-phase biopanning methods. The peptides VSIFPPA and KTAISPT were selected 15 and 6 times, respectively, by all three of the MAbs using solution-phase biopanning. The peptide LRLPPAP was selected 8 times by NB3C4 using solid-phase biopanning; this peptide shares a trio of amino acids with the peptide VSIFPPA. Phage that expressed the peptides VSIFPPA and LRLPPAP were reactive with T1E7 and/or NB3C4, and phage that expressed the peptides VSIFPPA, LRLPPAP, and KTAISPT partially inhibited the reactivity of T1E7 with RRV. The selected peptides resemble regions of RRV-E2 adjacent to sites mutated in neutralization escape variants of RRV derived by culture in the presence of these MAbs (E2 210-219 and 238-245) and an additional region of E2 172-182. Together these sites represent a conformational epitope of E2 that is informative of cellular contact sites on RRV.

Antibody reactivity to the transmembrane protein of the caprine arthritis encephalitis virus correlates with severity of arthritis: No evidence for the involvement of epitope mimicry

Serum and synovial antibody reactivities of caprine arthritis encephalitis virus (CAEV) infected goats were assessed by Western blotting against purified CAEV antigen and the greatest intensity of reactivity in the serum of arthritic goats was to the gp45 transmembrane protein (TM). The extracytoplasmic domain of the TM gene was cloned into a pGEX vector and expressed in Escherichia coil as a glutathione S transferase fusion protein (GST-TM). This clone was found to be 90.5 and 89.2% homologous to published sequences of CAEV TM gene. Serum of 16 goats naturally infected with CAEV were examined by Western blotting for reactivity to the fusion protein. Antibody reactivity to the GST-TM correlated with clinically detectable arthritis (R = 0.642, P ≤ 0.007). The hypothesis that the immune response to the envelope proteins of the CAEV contributes to the severity of arthritis in goats naturally infected with CAEV via epitope mimicry was tested. Antibodies from 5 CAEV infected goats were affinity purified against the GST-TM fusion protein and tested for cross-reactivity with a series of goat synovial extracts and proteogylcans. No serum antibody response or cross-reactivity of affinity purified antibodies could be detected. Peptides of the CAEV SU that were predicted to be linear epitopes and a similar heat shock protein 83 (HSP) peptide identified by database searching, were synthesized and tested for reactivity in CAEV goats using ELISA, in vitro lymphocyte proliferation and delayed type hypersensitivity (DTH) assays. Peripheral blood lymphocytes from 10 of 17 goats with long term natural CAEV infections proliferated in vitro in response to CAEV and in vivo 3 of 7 CAEV infected goats had a DTH reaction to CAEV antigen. However, none of the peptides elicited significant cell mediated immune responses from CAEV infected goats. No antibody reactivity to the SU peptides or HSP peptide was found. We observed that the antibody reactivity to the CAEV TM protein associated with severity of arthritis however epitope mimicry by the envelope proteins of CAEV is unlikely to be involved.

Mimicry of 21. 5 KDa myelin basic protein peptide by a Maedi Visna virus polymerase peptide does not contribute to the pathogenesis of encephalitis in sheep

Epitope mimicry is the theory that an infectious agent such as a virus causes pathological effects via mimicry of host proteins and thus elicits a cross-reactive immune response to host tissues. Weise and Carnegie (1988) found a region of sequence similarity between the pol gene of the Maedi Visna virus (MVV), which induces demyelinating encephalitis in sheep, and myelin basic protein (MBP), which is known to induce experimental allergic encephalitis (EAE) in laboratory animals. In this study, cross-reactions between sera raised in sheep against synthetic peptides of MVV (TGKIPWILLPGR) and 21.5 kDa MBP (SGKVPWLKRPGR) were demonstrated using enzyme-linked immunosorbant assay (ELISA) and thin layer chromatography (TLC) immunoprobing. The antibody responses of MVV-infected sheep were investigated using ELISA against the peptides, and MBP protein, immunoprobing of the peptides on TPC plates and Western blotting against MBP. Slight significant reactions to the 21.5 kDa MBP peptide (P < 0.001) and to a lesser extent sheep MBP (P < 0.004) were detected in ELISA. The MBP peptide evoked stronger responses from more sera than the MVV peptide on immunoprobed TLC plates. On the Western blots, eight of the 23 sheep with Visna had serum reactivity to MBP. This slight reaction to MBP in MVV-infected sheep is of interest because of the immune responses to MBP evident in multiple sclerosis and EAE, but its relevance in Visna is limited since no correlation with disease severity was observed. The cell-mediated immune responses of MVV-infected sheep against similar peptides was assessed. The peptides did not stimulate proliferation of peripheral blood lymphocytes of MVV-infected sheep. Since the MVV peptide was not recognised by antibodies or T lymphocytes from MVV-infected and encephalic sheep, it was concluded that epitope mimicry of this 21.5 kDa MBP peptide by the similar MVV pol peptide was not contributing to the immunopathogenesis of Visna. The slight antibody response to MBP and the MBP peptide can be attributed to by-stander effects of the immunopathology of MVV-induced encephalitis.

Role of enhanced vector transmission of a new West Nile virus strain in an outbreak of equine disease in Australia in 2011

Background In 2011, a variant of West Nile virus Kunjin strain (WNVKUN) caused an unprecedented epidemic of neurological disease in horses in southeast Australia, resulting in almost 1,000 cases and a 9% fatality rate. We investigated whether increased fitness of the virus in the primary vector, Culex annulirostris, and another potential vector, Culex australicus, contributed to the widespread nature of the outbreak. Methods Mosquitoes were exposed to infectious blood meals containing either the virus strain responsible for the outbreak, designated WNVKUN2011, or WNVKUN2009, a strain of low virulence that is typical of historical strains of this virus. WNVKUN infection in mosquito samples was detected using a fixed cell culture enzyme immunoassay and a WNVKUN- specific monoclonal antibody. Probit analysis was used to determine mosquito susceptibility to infection. Infection, dissemination and transmission rates for selected days post-exposure were compared using Fisher’s exact test. Virus titers in bodies and saliva expectorates were compared using t-tests. Results There were few significant differences between the two virus strains in the susceptibility of Cx. annulirostris to infection, the kinetics of virus replication and the ability of this mosquito species to transmit either strain. Both strains were transmitted by Cx. annulirostris for the first time on day 5 post-exposure. The highest transmission rates (proportion of mosquitoes with virus detected in saliva) observed were 68% for WNVKUN2011 on day 12 and 72% for WNVKUN2009 on day 14. On days 12 and 14 post-exposure, significantly more WNVKUN2011 than WNVKUN2009 was expectorated by infected mosquitoes. Infection, dissemination and transmission rates of the two strains were not significantly different in Culex australicus. However, transmission rates and the amount of virus expectorated were significantly lower in Cx. australicus than Cx. annulirostris. Conclusions The higher amount of WNVKUN2011 expectorated by infected mosquitoes may be an indication that this virus strain is transmitted more efficiently by Cx. annulirostris compared to other WNVKUN strains. Combined with other factors, such as a convergence of abundant mosquito and wading bird populations, and mammalian and avian feeding behaviour by Cx. annulirostris, this may have contributed to the scale of the 2011 equine epidemic.