Has portfolio theory got any principles?

Recently, Portfolio Theory (PT) has been proposed for Information Retrieval. However, under non-trivial conditions PT violates the original Probability Ranking Principle (PRP). In this poster, we shall explore whether PT upholds a different ranking principle based on Quantum Theory, i.e. the Quantum Probability Ranking Principle (QPRP), and examine the relationship between this new model and the new ranking principle. We make a significant contribution to the theoretical development of PT and show that under certain circumstances PT upholds the QPRP, and thus guarantees an optimal ranking according to the QPRP. A practical implication of this finding is that the parameters of PT can be automatically estimated via the QPRP, instead of resorting to extensive parameter tuning.

Novel sequential methods in dose-finding designs : extensions of the continual reassessment method

Dose-finding trials are a form of clinical data collection process in which the primary objective is to estimate an optimum dose of an investigational new drug when given to a patient. This thesis develops and explores three novel dose-finding design methodologies. All design methodologies presented in this thesis are pragmatic. They use statistical models, incorporate clinicians' prior knowledge efficiently, and prematurely stop a trial for safety or futility reasons. Designing actual dose-finding trials using these methodologies will minimize practical difficulties, improve efficiency of dose estimation, be flexible to stop early and reduce possible patient discomfort or harm.

Optimal sizing of combined PV-energy storage for a grid-connected residential building

In this paper, load profile and operational goal are used to find optimal sizing of combined PV-energy storage for a future grid-connected residential building. As part of this approach, five operational goals are introduced and the annual cost for each operation goal has been assessed. Finally, the optimal sizing for combined PV-energy storage has been determined, using direct search method. In addition, sensitivity of the annual cost to different parameters has been analyzed.

Output feedback optimal control with contraints

In Chapters 1 through 9 of the book (with the exception of a brief discussion on observers and integral action in Section 5.5 of Chapter 5) we considered constrained optimal control problems for systems without uncertainty, that is, with no unmodelled dynamics or disturbances, and where the full state was available for measurement. More realistically, however, it is necessary to consider control problems for systems with uncertainty. This chapter addresses some of the issues that arise in this situation. As in Chapter 9, we adopt a stochastic description of uncertainty, which associates probability distributions to the uncertain elements, that is, disturbances and initial conditions. (See Section 12.6 for references to alternative approaches to model uncertainty.) When incomplete state information exists, a popular observer-based control strategy in the presence of stochastic disturbances is to use the certainty equivalence [CE] principle, introduced in Section 5.5 of Chapter 5 for deterministic systems. In the stochastic framework, CE consists of estimating the state and then using these estimates as if they were the true state in the control law that results if the problem were formulated as a deterministic problem (that is, without uncertainty). This strategy is motivated by the unconstrained problem with a quadratic objective function, for which CE is indeed the optimal solution (˚Astr¨om 1970, Bertsekas 1976). One of the aims of this chapter is to explore the issues that arise from the use of CE in RHC in the presence of constraints. We then turn to the obvious question about the optimality of the CE principle. We show that CE is, indeed, not optimal in general. We also analyse the possibility of obtaining truly optimal solutions for single input linear systems with input constraints and uncertainty related to output feedback and stochastic disturbances.We first find the optimal solution for the case of horizon N = 1, and then we indicate the complications that arise in the case of horizon N = 2. Our conclusion is that, for the case of linear constrained systems, the extra effort involved in the optimal feedback policy is probably not justified in practice. Indeed, we show by example that CE can give near optimal performance. We thus advocate this approach in real applications.

Incorporating adverse event relatedness into dose-finding clinical trial designs

Dose-finding designs estimate the dose level of a drug based on observed adverse events. Relatedness of the adverse event to the drug has been generally ignored in all proposed design methodologies. These designs assume that the adverse events observed during a trial are definitely related to the drug, which can lead to flawed dose-level estimation. We incorporate adverse event relatedness into the so-called continual reassessment method. Adverse events that have ‘doubtful’ or ‘possible’ relationships to the drug are modelled using a two-parameter logistic model with an additive probability mass. Adverse events ‘probably’ or ‘definitely’ related to the drug are modelled using a cumulative logistic model. To search for the maximum tolerated dose, we use the maximum estimated toxicity probability of these two adverse event relatedness categories. We conduct a simulation study that illustrates the characteristics of the design under various scenarios. This article demonstrates that adverse event relatedness is important for improved dose estimation. It opens up further research pathways into continual reassessment design methodologies.

A novel route in bone tissue engineering : magnetic biomimetic scaffolds

In recent years, interest in tissue engineering and its solutions has increased considerably. In particular, scaffolds have become fundamental tools in bone graft substitution and are used in combination with a variety of bio-agents. However, a long-standing problem in the use of these conventional scaffolds lies in the impossibility of re-loading the scaffold with the bio-agents after implantation. This work introduces the magnetic scaffold as a conceptually new solution. The magnetic scaffold is able, via magnetic driving, to attract and take up in vivo growth factors, stem cells or other bio-agents bound to magnetic particles. The authors succeeded in developing a simple and inexpensive technique able to transform standard commercial scaffolds made of hydroxyapatite and collagen in magnetic scaffolds. This innovative process involves dip-coating of the scaffolds in aqueous ferrofluids containing iron oxide nanoparticles coated with various biopolymers. After dip-coating, the nanoparticles are integrated into the structure of the scaffolds, providing the latter with magnetization values as high as 15 emu g�1 at 10 kOe. These values are suitable for generating magnetic gradients, enabling magnetic guiding in the vicinity and inside the scaffold. The magnetic scaffolds do not suffer from any structural damage during the process, maintaining their specific porosity and shape. Moreover, they do not release magnetic particles under a constant flow of simulated body fluids over a period of 8 days. Finally, preliminary studies indicate the ability of the magnetic scaffolds to support adhesion and proliferation of human bone marrow stem cells in vitro. Hence, this new type of scaffold is a valuable candidate for tissue engineering applications, featuring a novel magnetic guiding option.

Interactive effects from self-reported physical and psychosocial factors in the workplace on neck pain and disability in female office workers

This study explored the interaction between physical and psychosocial factors in the workplace on neck pain and disability in female computer users. A self-report survey was used to collect data on physical risk factors (monitor location, duration of time spent using the keyboard and mouse) and psychosocial domains (as assessed by the Job Content Questionnaire). The neck disability index was the outcome measure. Interactions among the physical and psychosocial factors were examined in analysis of covariance. High supervisor support, decision authority and skill discretion protect against the negative impact of (1) time spent on computer-based tasks, (2) non-optimal placement of the computer monitor, and; (3) long duration of mouse use. Office workers with greater neck pain experience a combination of high physical and low psychosocial stressors at work. Prevention and intervention strategies that target both sets of risk factors are likely to be more successful than single intervention programmes. Statement of Relevance The results of this study demonstrate that the interaction of physical and psychosocial factors in the workplace has a stronger association with neck pain and disability than the presence of either factor alone. This finding has important implications for strategies aimed at the prevention of musculoskeletal problems in office workers.

Non-linear principal components analysis : an alternative method for finding patterns in environmental data

The main purpose of this article is to gain an insight into the relationships between variables describing the environmental conditions of the Far Northern section of the Great Barrier Reef, Australia. Several of the variables describing these conditions had different measurement levels and often they had non-linear relationships. Using non-linear principal component analysis, it was possible to acquire an insight into these relationships. Furthermore, three geographical areas with unique environmental characteristics could be identified.

Differential effects of aging on spatial learning through exploratory navigation and map reading

It has been shown that abilities in spatial learning and memory are adversely affected by aging. The present study was conducted to investigate whether increasing age has equal consequences for all types of spatial learning or impacts certain types of spatial learning selectively. Specifically, two major types of spatial learning, exploratory navigation and map reading, were contrasted. By combining a neuroimaging finding that the medial temporal lobe (MTL) is especially important for exploratory navigation and a neurological finding that the MTL is susceptible to age-related atrophy, it was hypothesized that spatial learning through exploratory navigation would exhibit a greater decline in later life than spatial learning through map reading. In an experiment, young and senior participants learned locations of landmarks in virtual environments either by navigating in them in the first-person perspective or by seeing aerial views of the environments. Results showed that senior participants acquired less accurate memories of the layouts of landmarks than young participants when they navigated in the environments, but the two groups did not differ in spatial learning performance when they viewed the environments from the aerial perspective. These results suggest that spatial learning through exploratory navigation is particularly vulnerable to adverse effects of aging, whereas elderly adults may be able to maintain their map reading skills relatively well.

Optimal Bayesian experimental design for models with intractable likelihoods using indirect inference applied to biological process models

This paper addresses the problem of determining optimal designs for biological process models with intractable likelihoods, with the goal of parameter inference. The Bayesian approach is to choose a design that maximises the mean of a utility, and the utility is a function of the posterior distribution. Therefore, its estimation requires likelihood evaluations. However, many problems in experimental design involve models with intractable likelihoods, that is, likelihoods that are neither analytic nor can be computed in a reasonable amount of time. We propose a novel solution using indirect inference (II), a well established method in the literature, and the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithm of Müller et al. (2004). Indirect inference employs an auxiliary model with a tractable likelihood in conjunction with the generative model, the assumed true model of interest, which has an intractable likelihood. Our approach is to estimate a map between the parameters of the generative and auxiliary models, using simulations from the generative model. An II posterior distribution is formed to expedite utility estimation. We also present a modification to the utility that allows the Müller algorithm to sample from a substantially sharpened utility surface, with little computational effort. Unlike competing methods, the II approach can handle complex design problems for models with intractable likelihoods on a continuous design space, with possible extension to many observations. The methodology is demonstrated using two stochastic models; a simple tractable death process used to validate the approach, and a motivating stochastic model for the population evolution of macroparasites.

Deterministic nanoassembly : Neutral or plasma route?

It is shown that, owing to selective delivery of ionic and neutral building blocks directly from the ionized gas phase and via surface migration, plasma environments offer a better deal of deterministic synthesis of ordered nanoassemblies compared to thermal chemical vapor deposition. The results of hybrid Monte Carlo (gas phase) and adatom self-organization (surface) simulation suggest that higher aspect ratios and better size and pattern uniformity of carbon nanotip microemitters can be achieved via the plasma route. © 2006 American Institute of Physics.

A review of modern computational algorithms for Bayesian optimal design

Bayesian experimental design is a fast growing area of research with many real-world applications. As computational power has increased over the years, so has the development of simulation-based design methods, which involve a number of algorithms, such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, sequential Monte Carlo and approximate Bayes methods, facilitating more complex design problems to be solved. The Bayesian framework provides a unified approach for incorporating prior information and/or uncertainties regarding the statistical model with a utility function which describes the experimental aims. In this paper, we provide a general overview on the concepts involved in Bayesian experimental design, and focus on describing some of the more commonly used Bayesian utility functions and methods for their estimation, as well as a number of algorithms that are used to search over the design space to find the Bayesian optimal design. We also discuss other computational strategies for further research in Bayesian optimal design.

Optimal Irrigation and N-fertilizer Management for Sustainable Winter Wheat Production in Khorezm, Uzbekistan

The efficiency of the nitrogen (N) application rates 0, 120, 180 and 240 kg N ha−1 in combination with low or medium water levels in the cultivation of winter wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) cv. Kupava was studied for the 2005–2006 and 2006–2007 growing seasons in the Khorezm region of Uzbekistan. The results show an impact of the initial soil Nmin (NO3-N + NH4-N) levels measured at wheat seeding on the N fertilizer rates applied. When the Nmin content in the 0–50 cm soil layer was lower than 10 mg kg−1 during wheat seeding in 2005, the N rate of 180 kg ha−1 was found to be the most effective for achieving high grain yields of high quality. With a higher Nmin content of about 30 mg kg−1 as was the case in the 2006 season, 120 kg N ha−1 was determined as being the technical and economical optimum. The temporal course of N2O emissions of winter wheat cultivation for the two water-level studies shows that emissions were strongly influenced by irrigation and N-fertilization. Extremely high emissions were measured immediately after fertilizer application events that were combined with irrigation events. Given the high impact of N-fertilizer and irrigation-water management on N2O emissions, it can be concluded that present N-management practices should be modified to mitigate emissions of N2O and to achieve higher fertilizer use efficiency.

Identification of optimal epitopes for Plasmodium falciparum rapid diagnostic tests that target histidine-rich proteins 2 and 3

Rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) represent important tools to diagnose malaria infection. To improve understanding of the variable performance of RDTs that detect the major target in Plasmodium falciparum, namely, histidine-rich protein 2 (HRP2), and to inform the design of better tests, we undertook detailed mapping of the epitopes recognized by eight HRP-specific monoclonal antibodies (MAbs). To investigate the geographic skewing of this polymorphic protein, we analyzed the distribution of these epitopes in parasites from geographically diverse areas. To identify an ideal amino acid motif for a MAb to target in HRP2 and in the related protein HRP3, we used a purpose-designed script to perform bioinformatic analysis of 448 distinct gene sequences from pfhrp2 and from 99 sequences from the closely related gene pfhrp3. The frequency and distribution of these motifs were also compared to the MAb epitopes. Heat stability testing of MAbs immobilized on nitrocellulose membranes was also performed. Results of these experiments enabled the identification of MAbs with the most desirable characteristics for inclusion in RDTs, including copy number and coverage of target epitopes, geographic skewing, heat stability, and match with the most abundant amino acid motifs identified. This study therefore informs the selection of MAbs to include in malaria RDTs as well as in the generation of improved MAbs that should improve the performance of HRP-detecting malaria RDTs.

License scheme : an optimal waste management policy under asymmetric information

A system requiring a waste management license from an enforcement agency has been introduced in many countries. A license system is usually coupled with fines, a manifest, and a disposal tax. However, these policy devices have not been integrated into an optimal policy. In this paper we derive an optimal waste management policy by using those policy devices. Waste management policies are met with three difficult problems: asymmetric information, the heterogeneity of waste management firms, and non-compliance by waste management firms and waste disposers. The optimal policy in this paper overcomes all three problems.