Development and validation of anthropometric prediction equations for estimation of body fat in Indonesian men

Body composition of 292 males aged between 18 and 65 years was measured using the deuterium oxide dilution technique. Participants were divided into development (n=146) and cross-validation (n=146) groups. Stature, body weight, skinfold thickness at eight sites, girth at five sites, and bone breadth at four sites were measured and body mass index (BMI), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and waist-to-stature ratio (WSR) calculated. Equations were developed using multiple regression analyses with skinfolds, breadth and girth measures, BMI, and other indices as independent variables and percentage body fat (%BF) determined from deuterium dilution technique as the reference. All equations were then tested in the cross-validation group. Results from the reference method were also compared with existing prediction equations by Durnin and Womersley (1974), Davidson et al (2011), and Gurrici et al (1998). The proposed prediction equations were valid in our cross-validation samples with r=0.77- 0.86, bias 0.2-0.5%, and pure error 2.8-3.6%. The strongest was generated from skinfolds with r=0.83, SEE 3.7%, and AIC 377.2. The Durnin and Womersley (1974) and Davidson et al (2011) equations significantly (p<0.001) underestimated %BF by 1.0 and 6.9% respectively, whereas the Gurrici et al (1998) equation significantly (p<0.001) overestimated %BF by 3.3% in our cross-validation samples compared to the reference. Results suggest that the proposed prediction equations are useful in the estimation of %BF in Indonesian men.

Mobility and out-of-home activities of older people living in suburban environments : ‘Because I'm a driver, I don't have a problem'

Governments are challenged by the need to ensure that ageing populations stay active and engaged as they age. Therefore, it is critical to investigate the role of mobility in older people's engagement in out-of-home activities, and to identify the experiences they have within their communities. This research investigates the use of transportation by older people and its implications for their out-of-home activities within suburban environments. The qualitative, mixed-method approach employs data collection methods which include a daily travel diary (including a questionnaire), Global Positioning System (GPS) tracking and semi-structured interviews with older people living in suburban environments in Brisbane, Australia. Results show that older people are mobile throughout the city, and their car provides them with that opportunity to access desired destinations. This ability to drive allows older people to live independently and to assist others who do not drive, particularly where transport alternatives are not as accessible. The ability to transport goods and other people is a significant advantage of the private car over other transport options. People with no access to private transportation who live in low-density environments are disadvantaged when it comes to participation within the community. Further research is needed to better understand the relationship between transportation and participation within the community environment, to assist policy makers and city and transportation planners to develop strategies for age-friendly environments within the community.

Prediction of CO concentrations based on a hybrid Partial Least Square and Support Vector Machine model

Due to the health impacts caused by exposures to air pollutants in urban areas, monitoring and forecasting of air quality parameters have become popular as an important topic in atmospheric and environmental research today. The knowledge on the dynamics and complexity of air pollutants behavior has made artificial intelligence models as a useful tool for a more accurate pollutant concentration prediction. This paper focuses on an innovative method of daily air pollution prediction using combination of Support Vector Machine (SVM) as predictor and Partial Least Square (PLS) as a data selection tool based on the measured values of CO concentrations. The CO concentrations of Rey monitoring station in the south of Tehran, from Jan. 2007 to Feb. 2011, have been used to test the effectiveness of this method. The hourly CO concentrations have been predicted using the SVM and the hybrid PLS–SVM models. Similarly, daily CO concentrations have been predicted based on the aforementioned four years measured data. Results demonstrated that both models have good prediction ability; however the hybrid PLS–SVM has better accuracy. In the analysis presented in this paper, statistic estimators including relative mean errors, root mean squared errors and the mean absolute relative error have been employed to compare performances of the models. It has been concluded that the errors decrease after size reduction and coefficients of determination increase from 56 to 81% for SVM model to 65–85% for hybrid PLS–SVM model respectively. Also it was found that the hybrid PLS–SVM model required lower computational time than SVM model as expected, hence supporting the more accurate and faster prediction ability of hybrid PLS–SVM model.

Older driver safety and mobility : where to from here?

The older adult population (65 years and over) represents a rapid growing segment of the population in many developed countries. Unlike earlier cohorts of older drivers that included many who were familiar with public transportation, the present cohort of older drivers historically has a greater reliance on the private automobile as their main form of transportation. Recent studies of older adults’ travel patterns reported automobile to be responsible for over 80% of the total number of hours spent on all trips. While older drivers, as a group, does not demonstrate a particular road risk, the evident demographic change and the increased physical fragility and severity of crash-related injuries makes older driver safety a prevalent public health issue. This study systematically reviewed the safety and mobility outcomes of existing strategies used internationally to manage older driver safety, with a specific focus on age-based testing (ABT), license restriction and self-regulation (i.e. voluntary limiting driving in potentially hazardous situations). ABT remains the most commonly adopted strategy by licensing authorities both within Australia and internationally. Heterogeneity in the development of functional declines, and in driving behaviours within the older driver population, makes age an unreliable index of driving capacity. Given the counter-productive safety and mobility outcomes of ABT strategies, their continued popularity within both the legislative and public domains remains problematic. Self-regulation may provide greater potential for reducing older drivers’ crash risk while maintaining their mobility and independence. The current body of literature on older drivers’ self-regulation is systematically reviewed. Despite being promoted by researchers and licensing authorities as a strategy to maintain older driver safety and mobility, the proportion of older drivers who self-regulate, and exactly how they do so, remains unclear. Future research on older drivers’ adoption of self-regulation, particularly the underlying psychological factors that underlies this process, is needed in order to promote its use within the older driver community.

Seeds of cosmopolitan future? Young people and their aspirations for future mobility

Mobility across space is an exemplary characteristic of the global era and an important aspect of the cultural experience of many people in advanced industrialised nations. Mobility evokes powerful images that effectively counter any illusion of stationary life and provide a break from the insularity of the local and parochial. High levels of mobility are simultaneously a fact, a necessity and a cultural aspiration. In recent times, debates about mobility in social theory have considered the relationship between mobility and cosmopolitan culture and identities (Hannerz, 1990, Urry, 1990, 2000, Beck, 2006). Against this backdrop, this paper also draws on some of the more recent discussions about the emergence of globalised and cosmopolitan identities among young people (Beck and Beck-Gernsheim, 2009). Using data from a longitudinal study of young people in Queensland, this paper provides an insight into young people’s aspirations about future mobility. The data affirm Skeggs’ (2004) comment that mobility is an unequal resource, and demonstrate that aspirations of future mobility reflect numerous social, economic and cultural realities of young people’s lives. This inevitably leads us to problematise the established, and often abstract, nexus between cosmopolitanism and mobility in contemporary debates about cosmopolitanism.

Consensus σ70 promoter prediction using hadoop

MapReduce frameworks such as Hadoop are well suited to handling large sets of data which can be processed separately and independently, with canonical applications in information retrieval and sales record analysis. Rapid advances in sequencing technology have ensured an explosion in the availability of genomic data, with a consequent rise in the importance of large scale comparative genomics, often involving operations and data relationships which deviate from the classical Map Reduce structure. This work examines the application of Hadoop to patterns of this nature, using as our focus a wellestablished workflow for identifying promoters - binding sites for regulatory proteins - Across multiple gene regions and organisms, coupled with the unifying step of assembling these results into a consensus sequence. Our approach demonstrates the utility of Hadoop for problems of this nature, showing how the tyranny of the "dominant decomposition" can be at least partially overcome. It also demonstrates how load balance and the granularity of parallelism can be optimized by pre-processing that splits and reorganizes input files, allowing a wide range of related problems to be brought under the same computational umbrella.

Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?

This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

Fire performance of cold-formed steel wall panels and prediction of their fire resistance rating

Recent research at the Queensland University of Technology has investigated the structural and thermal behaviour of load bearing Light gauge Steel Frame (LSF) wall systems made of 1.15 mm G500 steel studs and varying plasterboard and insulation configurations (cavity and external insulation) using full scale fire tests. Suitable finite element models of LSF walls were then developed and validated by comparing with test results. In this study, the validated finite element models of LSF wall panels subject to standard fire conditions were used in a detailed parametric study to investigate the effects of important parameters such as steel grade and thickness, plasterboard screw spacing, plasterboard lateral restraint, insulation materials and load ratio on their performance under standard fire conditions. Suitable equations were proposed to predict the time–temperature profiles of LSF wall studs with eight different plasterboard-insulation configurations, and used in the finite element analyses. Finite element parametric studies produced extensive fire performance data for the LSF wall panels in the form of load ratio versus time and critical hot flange (failure) temperature curves for eight wall configurations. This data demonstrated the superior fire performance of externally insulated LSF wall panels made of different steel grades and thicknesses. It also led to the development of a set of equations to predict the important relationship between the load ratio and the critical hot flange temperature of LSF wall studs. Finally this paper proposes a simplified method to predict the fire resistance rating of LSF walls based on the two proposed set of equations for the load ratio–hot flange temperature and the time–temperature relationships.

Sustaining safety and mobility amongst older adults : the multilevel older driver self-regulation model

This multidisciplinary research advanced the current understanding of self-regulation – a critical component in safe and sustainable mobility for older adults. It investigates the sociodemographic and psychosocial factors that underlies older adults' self-regulation, and examines their travel behaviours using a combination of self-report, in-vehicle and wearable devices. This research developed a novel theoretical model that significantly predicts self-regulation and objectively driving behaviours among older drivers.

Prediction with limited advice and multiarmed bandits with paid observations

We study two problems of online learning under restricted information access. In the first problem, prediction with limited advice, we consider a game of prediction with expert advice, where on each round of the game we query the advice of a subset of M out of N experts. We present an algorithm that achieves O(√(N/M)TlnN ) regret on T rounds of this game. The second problem, the multiarmed bandit with paid observations, is a variant of the adversarial N-armed bandit game, where on round t of the game we can observe the reward of any number of arms, but each observation has a cost c. We present an algorithm that achieves O((cNlnN) 1/3 T2/3+√TlnN ) regret on T rounds of this game in the worst case. Furthermore, we present a number of refinements that treat arm- and time-dependent observation costs and achieve lower regret under benign conditions. We present lower bounds that show that, apart from the logarithmic factors, the worst-case regret bounds cannot be improved.

Comparing different approach and avoidance models of learning and personality in the prediction of work, university, and leadership outcomes

Jackson (2005) developed a hybrid model of personality and learning, known as the learning styles profiler (LSP) which was designed to span biological, socio-cognitive, and experiential research foci of personality and learning research. The hybrid model argues that functional and dysfunctional learning outcomes can be best understood in terms of how cognitions and experiences control, discipline, and re-express the biologically based scale of sensation-seeking. In two studies with part-time workers undertaking tertiary education (N equals 137 and 58), established models of approach and avoidance from each of the three different research foci were compared with Jackson's hybrid model in their predictiveness of leadership, work, and university outcomes using self-report and supervisor ratings. Results showed that the hybrid model was generally optimal and, as hypothesized, that goal orientation was a mediator of sensation-seeking on outcomes (work performance, university performance, leader behaviours, and counterproductive work behaviour). Our studies suggest that the hybrid model has considerable promise as a predictor of work and educational outcomes as well as dysfunctional outcomes.

Traffic incident clearance time and arrival time prediction based on hazard models

Accurate prediction of incident duration is not only important information of Traffic Incident Management System, but also an ffective input for travel time prediction. In this paper, the hazard based prediction odels are developed for both incident clearance time and arrival time. The data are obtained from the Queensland Department of Transport and Main Roads’ STREAMS Incident Management System (SIMS) for one year ending in November 2010. The best fitting distributions are drawn for both clearance and arrival time for 3 types of incident: crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard. The results show that Gamma, Log-logistic, and Weibull are the best fit for crash, stationary vehicle, and hazard incident, respectively. The obvious impact factors are given for crash clearance time and arrival time. The quantitative influences for crash and hazard incident are presented for both clearance and arrival. The model accuracy is analyzed at the end.

Predictive validity of accelerometer prediction equations for energy expenditure (EE) during overland walking and running in children and adolescents

Purpose The aim of this study was to assess the predictive validity of three accelerometer prediction equations (Freedson et aL, 1997; Trost et aL, 1998; Puyau et al., 2002) for energy expenditure (EE) during overland walking and running in children and adolescents. Methods 45 healthy children and adolescents aged 10-18 completed the following protocol, each task 5-mins in duration, with a 5-min rest period in between; walking normally; walking briskly; running easily and running fast. During each task participants wore MTI (WAM 7164) Actigraphs on the left and right hips. VO2 was monitored breath by breath using the Cosmed K4b2 portable indirect calorimetry system. For each prediction equation, difference scores were calculated as EE measured minus EE predicted. The percentage of 1-min epochs correctly categorized as light (<3 METs), moderate (3-5.9 METs), and vigorous (≥6 METS) was also calculated. Results The Freedson and Trost equations consistently overestimated MET level. The level of overestimation was statistically significant across all tasks for the Freedson equation, and was significant for only the walking tasks for the Trost equation. The Puyau equation consistently underestimated AEE with the exception of the walking normally task. In terms of categorisation, the Freedson equation (72.8% agreement) demonstrated better agreement than the Puyau (60.6%). Conclusions These data suggest that the three accelerometer prediction equations do not accurately predict EE on a minute-by-minute basis in children and adolescents during overland walking and running. However, the cut points generated by these equations maybe useful for classifying activity as either, light, moderate, or vigorous.