486 resultados para likelihood to publication


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This article seeks to analyse current dilemmas in responding to calls to narrow 'the gap' between academic and school culture in the area of preservice teacher preparation. It critiques traditional practices and current policies which focus on the narrowly vocational at the expense of the contextual. Further, it acknowledges the problems in the teaching of theory as it has been traditionally understood. Finally, it assesses the benefits for teachers and academics of forms of pedagogical partnership and the likelihood of progress in this area, and suggest that a number of fundamental changes need to be made in academic culture for genuine partnerships to become a reality.

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The purpose of this study was to explore barriers and facilitators to using CityCycle, a public bicycle share scheme in Brisbane, Australia. Focus groups were conducted with participants belonging to one of three categories. Group one consisted of infrequent and noncyclists (no bicycle riding over the past month), group two were regular bicycle riders (ridden a bicycle at least once in the past month) and group three was composed of CityCycle members. A thematic analytic method was used to analyse the data. Three main themes were found: Accessibility/spontaneity, safety and weather/topography. The lengthy sign-up process was thought to stifle the spontaneity typically thought to attract people to public bike share. Mandatory helmet legislation was thought to reduce spontaneous use. Safety was a major concern for all groups and this included a perceived lack of suitable bicycle infrastructure, as well as regular riders describing a negative attitude of some car drivers. Interestingly, CityCycle riders unanimously perceived car driver attitudes to improve when on CityCycle bicycles relative to riding on personal bicycles. Conclusions: In order to increase the popularity of the CityCycle scheme, the results of this study suggest that a more accessible, spontaneous sign-up process is required, 24/7 opening hours, and greater incentives to sign up new members and casual users, as seeing people using CityCycle appears critical to further take up.

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Quality oriented management systems and methods have become the dominant business and governance paradigm. From this perspective, satisfying customers’ expectations by supplying reliable, good quality products and services is the key factor for an organization and even government. During recent decades, Statistical Quality Control (SQC) methods have been developed as the technical core of quality management and continuous improvement philosophy and now are being applied widely to improve the quality of products and services in industrial and business sectors. Recently SQC tools, in particular quality control charts, have been used in healthcare surveillance. In some cases, these tools have been modified and developed to better suit the health sector characteristics and needs. It seems that some of the work in the healthcare area has evolved independently of the development of industrial statistical process control methods. Therefore analysing and comparing paradigms and the characteristics of quality control charts and techniques across the different sectors presents some opportunities for transferring knowledge and future development in each sectors. Meanwhile considering capabilities of Bayesian approach particularly Bayesian hierarchical models and computational techniques in which all uncertainty are expressed as a structure of probability, facilitates decision making and cost-effectiveness analyses. Therefore, this research investigates the use of quality improvement cycle in a health vii setting using clinical data from a hospital. The need of clinical data for monitoring purposes is investigated in two aspects. A framework and appropriate tools from the industrial context are proposed and applied to evaluate and improve data quality in available datasets and data flow; then a data capturing algorithm using Bayesian decision making methods is developed to determine economical sample size for statistical analyses within the quality improvement cycle. Following ensuring clinical data quality, some characteristics of control charts in the health context including the necessity of monitoring attribute data and correlated quality characteristics are considered. To this end, multivariate control charts from an industrial context are adapted to monitor radiation delivered to patients undergoing diagnostic coronary angiogram and various risk-adjusted control charts are constructed and investigated in monitoring binary outcomes of clinical interventions as well as postintervention survival time. Meanwhile, adoption of a Bayesian approach is proposed as a new framework in estimation of change point following control chart’s signal. This estimate aims to facilitate root causes efforts in quality improvement cycle since it cuts the search for the potential causes of detected changes to a tighter time-frame prior to the signal. This approach enables us to obtain highly informative estimates for change point parameters since probability distribution based results are obtained. Using Bayesian hierarchical models and Markov chain Monte Carlo computational methods, Bayesian estimators of the time and the magnitude of various change scenarios including step change, linear trend and multiple change in a Poisson process are developed and investigated. The benefits of change point investigation is revisited and promoted in monitoring hospital outcomes where the developed Bayesian estimator reports the true time of the shifts, compared to priori known causes, detected by control charts in monitoring rate of excess usage of blood products and major adverse events during and after cardiac surgery in a local hospital. The development of the Bayesian change point estimators are then followed in a healthcare surveillances for processes in which pre-intervention characteristics of patients are viii affecting the outcomes. In this setting, at first, the Bayesian estimator is extended to capture the patient mix, covariates, through risk models underlying risk-adjusted control charts. Variations of the estimator are developed to estimate the true time of step changes and linear trends in odds ratio of intensive care unit outcomes in a local hospital. Secondly, the Bayesian estimator is extended to identify the time of a shift in mean survival time after a clinical intervention which is being monitored by riskadjusted survival time control charts. In this context, the survival time after a clinical intervention is also affected by patient mix and the survival function is constructed using survival prediction model. The simulation study undertaken in each research component and obtained results highly recommend the developed Bayesian estimators as a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances as well as industrial and business contexts. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The empirical results and simulations indicate that the Bayesian estimators are a strong alternative in change point estimation within quality improvement cycle in healthcare surveillances. The superiority of the proposed Bayesian framework and estimators are enhanced when probability quantification, flexibility and generalizability of the developed model are also considered. The advantages of the Bayesian approach seen in general context of quality control may also be extended in the industrial and business domains where quality monitoring was initially developed.

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Dealing with the aggression of other drivers on the road is an important skill given that driving is a common activity for adults in highly motorised countries. Even though incidents of extreme aggression on the road (such as assault) are reportedly rare, milder forms, some of them dangerous (such as tailgating or deliberately following too closely) are apparently common, and may be increasing. At the very least, this is likely to render the driving environment more stressful, and at worst elevates the risk of crashing by increasing both the level of risky driving behaviours and the likelihood of responses that escalate the situation. Thus the need for drivers to manage incidents of conflict is likely to become increasingly important. However, little research examines how drivers manage their own or others’ aggressive driving behaviour. Recently greater attention has been paid to driver cognitions, especially the attributions that drivers make about other drivers, that then might influence their own driving responses, particularly aggressive or risky ones. The study reported below was the first in a larger exploration of aggressive driving that focussed on driver cognitions, emotions and underlying motivations for aggressive behaviours on the road. Qualitative, in-depth interviews of drivers (n = 30, aged 18-49 years) were subjected to thematic analysis to investigate driver experiences with aggressive driving. Two main themes were identified from these accounts: driver management of self; and driver attempts to influence or manage other drivers. This paper describes the subthemes falling under the management of self main theme. These subthemes were labelled ‘being magnanimous’, ‘chilling out’, ‘slowing down’, and ‘apology/acknowledgment’. ‘Being magnanimous’ referred to situations where the respondent perceived him/herself to be a recipient of another’s aggressive driving and made a deliberate choice not to respond. However, a characteristic of this sub-theme was that this choice was underpinned by the adoption of morally superior stance, or sense of magnanimity. ‘Chilling out’ was a more general response to both the milder aggressive behaviours of other drivers and the general frustrations of driving. ‘Slowing down’ referred to reducing one’s speed in response to the perceived aggressive driving, often tailgating, of another. This subtheme appeared to consist of two separate underlying motivations. One of these was a genuine concern for one’s own safety while the other was more aimed at “getting back” at the other driver. ‘Apology’ referred to how drivers modified their more negative reactions and responses when another driver made gestures that acknowledged their having made a mistake, indicated an apology, or acknowledged the recipient driver. These sub-themes are discussed in relation to their implications for understanding aggressive driving and intervening to reduce it.

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Background: Ambulance Ramping, defined anecdotally as a practice where patients brought to emergency departments by ambulance experience delays to admission, has become more frequent in Australian emergency departments over the last few years. Previous research has shown a link between emergency department overcrowding, ambulance diversion and adverse outcomes for patients. However, there is very little research about Ambulance Ramping. The literature has no consistent definition of Ambulance Ramping, no description of how it is managed, and limited research on the effects it has on patient and service delivery outcomes...

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Recent research has described the restructuring of particles upon exposure to organic vapours; however, as yet hypotheses able to explain this phenomenon are limited. In this study, a range of experiments were performed to explore different hypotheses related to carbonaceous particle restructuring upon exposure to organic and water vapours, such as: the effect of surface tension, the role of organics in flocculating primary particles, as well as the ability of vapours to “wet” the particle surface. The change in mobility diameter (dm) was investigated for a range carbonaceous particle types (diesel exhaust, petrol exhaust, cigarette smoke, candle smoke, particles generated in a heptane/toluene flame, and wood smoke particles) exposed to different organic (heptane, ethanol, and dimethyl sulfoxide/water (1:1 vol%) mixture) and water vapours. Particles were first size-selected and then bubbled through an impinger (bubbler) containing either an organic solvent or water, where particles trapped inside rising bubbles were exposed to saturated vapours of the solvent in the impinger. The size distribution of particles was simultaneously measured upstream and downstream from the impinger. A size-dependent reduction in dm was observed when bubbling diesel exhaust, particles generated in a heptane/toluene flame, and candle smoke particles through heptane, ethanol and a dimethyl sulfoxide/water (1:1 vol %) mixture. In addition, the size distributions of particles bubbled through an impinger were broader. Moreover, an increase of the geometric standard deviation (σ) of the size distributions of particles bubbled through an impinger was also found to be size-dependent. Size-dependent reduction in dm and an increase of σ indicate that particles undergo restructuring to a more compact form, which was confirmed by TEM analysis. However, bubbling of these particles through water did not result in a size-dependent reduction in dm, nor in an increase of σ. Cigarette smoke, petrol exhaust, and wood smoke particles did not result in any substantial change in dm, or σ, when bubbled through organic solvents or water. Therefore, size-dependent reduction in the dm upon bubbling through organic solvents was observed only for particles that had a fractal-like structure, whilst particles that were liquid or were assumed to be spherical did not exhibit any reduction in dm. Compaction of fractal-like particles was attributed to the ability of condensing vapours to efficiently wet the particles. Our results also show that the presence of an organic layer on the surface of fractal-like particles, or the surface tension of the condensed liquid do not influence the extent of compaction.

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This study examined the perceptual attunement of relatively skilled individuals to physical properties of striking implements in the sport of cricket. We also sought to assess whether utilising bats of different physical properties influenced performance of a specific striking action: the front foot straight drive. Eleven, skilled male cricketers (mean age = 16.6 ± 0.3 years) from an elite school cricket development programme consented to participate in the study. Whist blindfolded, participants wielded six bats exhibiting different mass and moment of inertia (MOI) characteristics and were asked to identify their three most preferred bats for hitting a ball to a maximum distance by performing a front foot straight drive (a common shot in cricket). Next, participants actually attempted to hit balls projected from a ball machine using each of the six bat configurations to enable kinematic analysis of front foot straight drive performance with each implement. Results revealed that, on first choice, the two bats with the smallest mass and MOI values (1 and 2) were most preferred by almost two-thirds (63.7%) of the participants. Kinematic analysis of movement patterns revealed that bat velocity, step length and bat-ball contact position measures significantly differed between bats. Data revealed how skilled youth cricketers were attuned to the different bat characteristics and harnessed movement system degeneracy to perform this complex interceptive action.

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This paper establishes practical stability results for an important range of approximate discrete-time filtering problems involving mismatch between the true system and the approximating filter model. Practical stability is established in the sense of an asymptotic bound on the amount of bias introduced by the model approximation. Our analysis applies to a wide range of estimation problems and justifies the common practice of approximating intractable infinite dimensional nonlinear filters by simpler computationally tractable filters.

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In recent years, ecological thinking has been applied to a range of social, cultural and aesthetic systems, including performing arts as a living system of policy makers, producers, organisations, artists and audiences. Ecological thinking is systems-based thinking which allows us to see the performing arts as a complex and protean ecosystem; to explain how elements in this system act and interact; and to evaluate its effects on Australia’s social fabric over time. According to Gallasch, ecological thinking is “what we desperately need for the arts.” It enables us to “defeat the fragmentary and utilitarian view of the arts that dominates, to make connections, to establish overviews of the arts that can be shared and debated” (Gallasch NP). John Baylis took up these issues in "Mapping Queensland Theatre" (2009), an Arts Queensland-funded survey designed to map practices in Brisbane and in Queensland more broadly, and to provide a platform to support future policy-making. In this paper, we propose a new approach to mapping Brisbane’s and Queensland’s theatre that extends Baylis’ ‘value chain’ into a ‘value ecology’ that provides a more textured picture of players, patterns, relationships and activity levels in local performing arts.

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Here we present a sequential Monte Carlo approach to Bayesian sequential design for the incorporation of model uncertainty. The methodology is demonstrated through the development and implementation of two model discrimination utilities; mutual information and total separation, but it can also be applied more generally if one has different experimental aims. A sequential Monte Carlo algorithm is run for each rival model (in parallel), and provides a convenient estimate of the marginal likelihood (of each model) given the data, which can be used for model comparison and in the evaluation of utility functions. A major benefit of this approach is that it requires very little problem specific tuning and is also computationally efficient when compared to full Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches. This research is motivated by applications in drug development and chemical engineering.

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This report reviews the use of point-to-point speed enforcement internationally in order to provide principles for better practice for its use in Australia and New Zealand. Point-to-point enforcement is a relatively new technological approach to speed enforcement which involves measuring the average speed of vehicles passing a series of cameras, by using automatic number plate recognition (ANPR) and other technologies. The approach has been implemented or trialled in a number of countries including Australia, New Zealand, the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, Austria, Italy, Switzerland and France. The major research activities were undertaken for the preparation of this report included: (1) an extensive review of the international literature; (2) stakeholder consultation with international and domestic organisations. To date, there have been no formal evaluations of point-to- point speed enforcement in Australia or New Zealand.

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Exposures to traffic-related air pollution (TRAP) can be particularly high in transport microenvironments (i.e. in and around vehicles) despite the short durations typically spent there. There is a mounting body of evidence that suggests that this is especially true for fine (b2.5 μm) and ultrafine (b100 nm, UF) particles. Professional drivers, who spend extended periods of time in transport microenvironments due to their job, may incur exposures markedly higher than already elevated non-occupational exposures. Numerous epidemiological studies have shown a raised incidence of adverse health outcomes among professional drivers, and exposure to TRAP has been suggested as one of the possible causal factors. Despite this, data describing the range and determinants of occupational exposures to fine and UF particles are largely conspicuous in their absence. Such information could strengthen attempts to define the aetiology of professional drivers' illnesses as it relates to traffic combustion-derived particles. In this article, we suggest that the drivers' occupational fine and UF particle exposures are an exemplar case where opportunities exist to better link exposure science and epidemiology in addressing questions of causality. The nature of the hazard is first introduced, followed by an overview of the health effects attributable to exposures typical of transport microenvironments. Basic determinants of exposure and reduction strategies are also described, and finally the state of knowledge is briefly summarised along with an outline of the main unanswered questions in the topic area.

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This paper outlines a feasible scheme to extract deck trend when a rotary-wing unmanned aerial vehicle (RUAV)approaches an oscillating deck. An extended Kalman filter (EKF) is de- veloped to fuse measurements from multiple sensors for effective estimation of the unknown deck heave motion. Also, a recursive Prony Analysis (PA) procedure is proposed to implement online curve-fitting of the estimated heave mo- tion. The proposed PA constructs an appropriate model with parameters identified using the forgetting factor recursive least square (FFRLS)method. The deck trend is then extracted by separating dominant modes. Performance of the proposed procedure is evaluated using real ship motion data, and simulation results justify the suitability of the proposed method into safe landing of RUAVs operating in a maritime environment.

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Time-activity patterns and the airborne pollutant concentrations encountered by children each day are an important determinant of individual exposure to airborne particles. This is demonstrated in this work by using hand-held devices to measure the real-time individual exposure of more than 100 children aged 8-11 years to particle number concentrations and average particle diameter, as well as alveolar and tracheobronchial deposited surface area concentration. A GPS-logger and activity diaries were also used to give explanation to the measurement results. Children were divided in three sample groups: two groups comprised of urban schools (school time from 8:30 am to 1:30 pm) with lunch and dinner at home, and the third group of a rural school with only dinner at home. The mean individual exposure to particle number concentration was found to differ between the three groups, ranging from 6.2×104 part. cm-3 for children attending one urban school to 1.6×104 part. cm-3 for the rural school. The corresponding daily alveolar deposited surface area dose varied from about 1.7×103 mm2 for urban schools to 6.0×102 mm2 for the rural school. For all of the children monitored, the lowest particle number concentrations are found during sleeping time and the highest were found during eating time. With regard to alveolar deposited surface area dose, a child's home was the major contributor (about 70%), with school contributing about 17% for urban schools and 27% for the rural school. An important contribution arises from the cooking/eating time spent at home, which accounted for approximately 20% of overall exposure, corresponding to more than 200 mm2. These activities represent the highest dose received per time unit, with very high values also encountered by children with a fireplace at home, as well as those that spend considerable time stuck in traffic jams.

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A Jacobian-free variable-stepsize method is developed for the numerical integration of the large, stiff systems of differential equations encountered when simulating transport in heterogeneous porous media. Our method utilises the exponential Rosenbrock-Euler method, which is explicit in nature and requires a matrix-vector product involving the exponential of the Jacobian matrix at each step of the integration process. These products can be approximated using Krylov subspace methods, which permit a large integration stepsize to be utilised without having to precondition the iterations. This means that our method is truly "Jacobian-free" - the Jacobian need never be formed or factored during the simulation. We assess the performance of the new algorithm for simulating the drying of softwood. Numerical experiments conducted for both low and high temperature drying demonstrates that the new approach outperforms (in terms of accuracy and efficiency) existing simulation codes that utilise the backward Euler method via a preconditioned Newton-Krylov strategy.