Development of empirical equations for irradiance profile of a standard parabolic trough collector using Monte Carlo ray tracing technique

Irradiance profile around the receiver tube (RT) of a parabolic trough collector (PTC) is a key effect of optical performance that affects the overall energy performance of the collector. Thermal performance evaluation of the RT relies on the appropriate determination of the irradiance profile. This article explains a technique in which empirical equations were developed to calculate the local irradiance as a function of angular location of the RT of a standard PTC using a vigorously verified Monte Carlo ray tracing model. A large range of test conditions including daily normal insolation, spectral selective coatings and glass envelop conditions were selected from the published data by Dudley et al. [1] for the job. The R2 values of the equations are excellent that vary in between 0.9857 and 0.9999. Therefore, these equations can be used confidently to produce realistic non-uniform boundary heat flux profile around the RT at normal incidence for conjugate heat transfer analyses of the collector. Required values in the equations are daily normal insolation, and the spectral selective properties of the collector components. Since the equations are polynomial functions, data processing software can be employed to calculate the flux profile very easily and quickly. The ultimate goal of this research is to make the concentrating solar power technology cost competitive with conventional energy technology facilitating its ongoing research.

The combination of empirical mode decomposition and minimum entropy deconvolution for roller bearing diagnostics in non-stationary operation

Diagnostics is based on the characterization of mechanical system condition and allows early detection of a possible fault. Signal processing is an approach widely used in diagnostics, since it allows directly characterizing the state of the system. Several types of advanced signal processing techniques have been proposed in the last decades and added to more conventional ones. Seldom, these techniques are able to consider non-stationary operations. Diagnostics of roller bearings is not an exception of this framework. In this paper, a new vibration signal processing tool, able to perform roller bearing diagnostics in whatever working condition and noise level, is developed on the basis of two data-adaptive techniques as Empirical Mode Decomposition (EMD), Minimum Entropy Deconvolution (MED), coupled by means of the mathematics related to the Hilbert transform. The effectiveness of the new signal processing tool is proven by means of experimental data measured in a test-rig that employs high power industrial size components.

Brisbane Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram : empirical findings on network partitioning and incident detection

The Macroscopic Fundamental Diagram (MFD) relates space-mean density and flow, and the existence with dynamic features was confirmed in congested urban network in downtown Yokohama with real data set. Since the MFD represents the area-wide network traffic performances, studies on perimeter control strategies and an area traffic state estimation utilizing the MFD concept has been reported. However, limited works have been reported on real world example from signalised arterial network. This paper fuses data from multiple sources (Bluetooth, Loops and Signals) and develops a framework for the development of the MFD for Brisbane, Australia. Existence of the MFD in Brisbane arterial network is confirmed. Different MFDs (from whole network and several sub regions) are evaluated to discover the spatial partitioning in network performance representation. The findings confirmed the usefulness of appropriate network partitioning for traffic monitoring and incident detections. The discussion addressed future research directions

The link between infrastructure charges and housing affordability in Australia: Where is the empirical evidence?

Developer paid charges or contributions are a commonly used infrastructure funding mechanism for local governments. However, developers claim that these costs are merely passed on to home buyers, with adverse effects to housing affordability. Despite a plethora of government reports and industry advocacy, there remains no empirical evidence in Australia to confirm or quantify this passing on effect to home buyers and hence no data for which governments to base policy decision upon. This paper examines the question of who really pays for urban infrastructure and the impact of infrastructure charges on housing affordability. It presents the findings of a number of international empirical studies that provide evidence that infrastructure charges do increase house prices. Based on international findings, and in the absence of any Australian research, then these findings suggest that if the international findings are transferable, then there is empirical evidence to support the proposition that developer paid infrastructure charges are a significant contributor to increasing house prices.

Empirical approaches in knowledge city research

In the 21st century, it has become apparent that ‘knowledge’ is a major factor of postmodern production (Yigitcanlar et al., 2007). Beyond this, in today’s rapidly globalizing world, knowledge, along with the social and technological settings, is seen as a key to secure economic prosperity and quality of life (Yigitcanlar et al., 2008a). However, limiting the benefits of a ‘knowledge-based development’ to only economic gains—and to a degree to social ones—is quite a narrow sighted view (Yigitcanlar et al., 2008b). Thus, the concept of ‘knowledge-based urban development’ is coined to bring economic prosperity, environmental sustainability, a just socio-spatial order and good governance to cities, and as a result producing a purposefully designed city—i.e., ‘knowledge city’—generating positive environmental and governance outcomes as well as economic and societal ones (Yigitcanlar, 2011; Carrillo et al., 2014).

Investigating relationships between relationship quality, customer loyalty and cooperation : an empirical study of convenience stores' franchise chain systems

Franchising has become a way to minimise the risks of small business management. There has been little research into the factors that promote franchise relationship success. This study attempts to empirically examine the important elements (relationship quality, customer loyalty and cooperation), which might promote a successful long-term franchising relationship between franchisors and franchisees within the context of convenience stores in Taiwan. A model of these relationships was developed and tested. A total of 500 surveys were mailed to a random sample of convenience stores’ franchisee owners among the four main franchisors in Taiwan. The results show that relationship quality positively influences the cooperation between franchisors and franchisees and is positively correlated with franchisee loyalty. Additionally, the cooperative behaviour between franchisees and franchisors is significantly associated with franchisees’ loyalty.

IEEE 802.11p empirical performance model from evaluations on test tracks

IEEE 802.11p is the new standard for intervehicular communications (IVC) using the 5.9 GHz frequency band; it is planned to be widely deployed to enable cooperative systems. 802.11p uses and performance have been studied theoretically and in simulations over the past years. Unfortunately, many of these results have not been confirmed by on-tracks experimentation. In this paper, we describe field trials of 802.11p technology with our test vehicles; metrics such as maximum range, latency and frame loss are examined. Then, we propose a detailed modelisation of 802.11p that can be used to accurately simulate its performance within Cooperative Systems (CS) applications.

Whole-body cryotherapy : empirical evidence and theoretical perspectives

Whole-body cryotherapy (WBC) involves short exposures to air temperatures below –100°C. WBC is increasingly accessible to athletes, and is purported to enhance recovery after exercise and facilitate rehabilitation postinjury. Our objective was to review the efficacy and effectiveness of WBC using empirical evidence from controlled trials. We found ten relevant reports; the majority were based on small numbers of active athletes aged less than 35 years. Although WBC produces a large temperature gradient for tissue cooling, the relatively poor thermal conductivity of air prevents significant subcutaneous and core body cooling. There is weak evidence from controlled studies that WBC enhances antioxidant capacity and parasympathetic reactivation, and alters inflammatory pathways relevant to sports recovery. A series of small randomized studies found WBC offers improvements in subjective recovery and muscle soreness following metabolic or mechanical overload, but little benefit towards functional recovery. There is evidence from one study only that WBC may assist rehabilitation for adhesive capsulitis of the shoulder. There were no adverse events associated with WBC; however, studies did not seem to undertake active surveillance of predefined adverse events. Until further research is available, athletes should remain cognizant that less expensive modes of cryotherapy, such as local ice-pack application or cold-water immersion, offer comparable physiological and clinical effects to WBC.

Predicting the likelihood of QA failure using treatment plan accuracy metrics

This study used automated data processing techniques to calculate a set of novel treatment plan accuracy metrics, and investigate their usefulness as predictors of quality assurance (QA) success and failure. 151 beams from 23 prostate and cranial IMRT treatment plans were used in this study. These plans had been evaluated before treatment using measurements with a diode array system. The TADA software suite was adapted to allow automatic batch calculation of several proposed plan accuracy metrics, including mean field area, small-aperture, off-axis and closed-leaf factors. All of these results were compared the gamma pass rates from the QA measurements and correlations were investigated. The mean field area factor provided a threshold field size (5 cm2, equivalent to a 2.2 x 2.2 cm2 square field), below which all beams failed the QA tests. The small aperture score provided a useful predictor of plan failure, when averaged over all beams, despite being weakly correlated with gamma pass rates for individual beams. By contrast, the closed leaf and off-axis factors provided information about the geometric arrangement of the beam segments but were not useful for distinguishing between plans that passed and failed QA. This study has provided some simple tests for plan accuracy, which may help minimise time spent on QA assessments of treatments that are unlikely to pass.

Do prediction markets produce well-calibrated probability forecasts?

This article presents new theoretical and empirical evidence on the forecasting ability of prediction markets. We develop a model that predicts that the time until expiration of a prediction market should negatively affect the accuracy of prices as a forecasting tool in the direction of a ‘favourite/longshot bias’. That is, high-likelihood events are underpriced, and low-likelihood events are over-priced. We confirm this result using a large data set of prediction market transaction prices. Prediction markets are reasonably well calibrated when time to expiration is relatively short, but prices are significantly biased for events farther in the future. When time value of money is considered, the miscalibration can be exploited to earn excess returns only when the trader has a relatively low discount rate.

Does improving school level attendance lead to improved school level achievement? An empirical study of indigenous educational policy in Australia

Current federal government policy initiatives in Aboriginal education and social welfare reform are based on assumptions about the relationship between increased attendance and increased student performance on standardized tests. There are empirical assumptions underlying these policy interventions and their accompanying public debates. Our aim here is to empirically explore the relationships between patterns of student attendance and patterns of student achievement in schools with significant cohorts of Aboriginal and/or Torres Strait Islander students at the school level. Based on an analysis of the publicly available data reported on the ‘MySchool’ website, we find that reforms and policies around attendance have not and are unlikely to generate patterns of improved achievement. Questions about the rationale and rhetoric of government policy focused at the school level as opposed to the need to focus on pedagogy and curriculum are discussed.

Empirical study to investigate the difficulties of implementing safety practices in the repair and maintenance sector in Hong Kong

Repair, maintenance, minor alteration, and addition work (RMAA) has become more and more important in developed societies, but its safety performance is alarming. For example, RMAA projects accounted for 53.2% of the total construction market and the percentage of RMAA accidents to all construction accidents in the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region (HKSAR) increased considerably in 2007. The RMAA sector has a huge potential for safety improvement. This study aims to explore and evaluate the difficulties of implementing safety practices in RMAA work. The mixed methods approach was adopted, and semistructured interviews and a two-round Delphi survey were conducted for the data collection. Major difficulties were identified, including limited safety resources for small and medium enterprises (SMEs), difficulty in changing the mindset of RMAA workers, and difficulty in performing safety supervision. These obstacles for implementing safety practices in the RMAA sector, if successfully removed, could significantly improve the safety performance of the RMAA sector and the construction industry as a whole.

Recursive pathways to marginal likelihood estimation with prior-sensitivity analysis

We investigate the utility to computational Bayesian analyses of a particular family of recursive marginal likelihood estimators characterized by the (equivalent) algorithms known as "biased sampling" or "reverse logistic regression" in the statistics literature and "the density of states" in physics. Through a pair of numerical examples (including mixture modeling of the well-known galaxy dataset) we highlight the remarkable diversity of sampling schemes amenable to such recursive normalization, as well as the notable efficiency of the resulting pseudo-mixture distributions for gauging prior-sensitivity in the Bayesian model selection context. Our key theoretical contributions are to introduce a novel heuristic ("thermodynamic integration via importance sampling") for qualifying the role of the bridging sequence in this procedure, and to reveal various connections between these recursive estimators and the nested sampling technique.

PAC-Bayes-empirical-Bernstein inequality

We present PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein inequality. The inequality is based on combination of PAC-Bayesian bounding technique with Empirical Bernstein bound. It allows to take advantage of small empirical variance and is especially useful in regression. We show that when the empirical variance is significantly smaller than the empirical loss PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein inequality is significantly tighter than PAC-Bayes-kl inequality of Seeger (2002) and otherwise it is comparable. PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein inequality is an interesting example of application of PAC-Bayesian bounding technique to self-bounding functions. We provide empirical comparison of PAC-Bayes-Empirical-Bernstein inequality with PAC-Bayes-kl inequality on a synthetic example and several UCI datasets.

What aspects of demographic, personality, attitudes, and perceptions of law enforcement influence self-reported likelihood of drink driving?

The aim of the current study was to examine the associations between a number of individual factors (demographic factors (age and gender), personality factors, risk-taking propensity, attitudes towards drink driving, and perceived legitimacy of drink driving enforcement) and how they influence the self-reported likelihood of drink driving. The second aim of this study was to examine the potential of attitudes mediating the relationship between risk-taking and self-reported likelihood of drink driving. In total, 293 Queensland drivers volunteered to participate in an online survey that assessed their self-reported likelihood to drink drive in the next month, demographics, traffic-related demographics, personality factors, risk-taking propensity, attitudes towards drink driving, and perceived legitimacy of drink driving enforcement. An ordered logistic regression analysis was utilised to evaluate the first aim of the study; at the first step the demographic variables were entered; at step two the personality and risk-taking were entered; at the third step, the attitudes and perceptions of legitimacy variables were entered. Being a younger driver and having a high risk-taking propensity were related to self-reported likelihood of drink driving. However, when the attitudes variable was entered, these individual factors were no longer significant; with attitudes being the most important predictor of self-reported drink driving likelihood. A significant mediation model was found with the second aim of the study, such that attitudes mediated the relationship between risk-taking and self-reported likelihood of drink driving. Considerable effort and resources are utilised by traffic authorities to reducing drink driving on the Australian road network. Notwithstanding these efforts, some participants still had some positive attitudes towards drink driving and reported that they were likely to drink drive in the future. These findings suggest that more work is needed to address attitudes regarding the dangerousness of drink driving.