Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks : understanding probability

An introduction to thinking about and understanding probability that highlights the main pits and trapfalls that befall logical reasoning

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, Part 1 of 4 : understanding probability

An introduction to elicitation of experts' probabilities, which illustrates common problems with reasoning and how to circumvent them during elicitation.

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, part 2 of 4: designing elicitation

An introduction to design of eliciting knowledge from experts.

Expert elicitation into Bayesian networks, Part 4 of 4: eliciting a conditional probability table

An introduction to eliciting a conditional probability table in a Bayesian Network model, highlighting three efficient methods for populating a CPT.

Tool-supported dataflow analysis of a security-critical embedded device

Defence organisations perform information security evaluations to confirm that electronic communications devices are safe to use in security-critical situations. Such evaluations include tracing all possible dataflow paths through the device, but this process is tedious and error-prone, so automated reachability analysis tools are needed to make security evaluations faster and more accurate. Previous research has produced a tool, SIFA, for dataflow analysis of basic digital circuitry, but it cannot analyse dataflow through microprocessors embedded within the circuit since this depends on the software they run. We have developed a static analysis tool that produces SIFA compatible dataflow graphs from embedded microcontroller programs written in C. In this paper we present a case study which shows how this new capability supports combined hardware and software dataflow analyses of a security critical communications device.

Data flow analysis of embedded program expressions

Data flow analysis techniques can be used to help assess threats to data confidentiality and integrity in security critical program code. However, a fundamental weakness of static analysis techniques is that they overestimate the ways in which data may propagate at run time. Discounting large numbers of these false-positive data flow paths wastes an information security evaluator's time and effort. Here we show how to automatically eliminate some false-positive data flow paths by precisely modelling how classified data is blocked by certain expressions in embedded C code. We present a library of detailed data flow models of individual expression elements and an algorithm for introducing these components into conventional data flow graphs. The resulting models can be used to accurately trace byte-level or even bit-level data flow through expressions that are normally treated as atomic. This allows us to identify expressions that safely downgrade their classified inputs and thereby eliminate false-positive data flow paths from the security evaluation process. To validate the approach we have implemented and tested it in an existing data flow analysis toolkit.

A taint marking approach to confidentiality violation detection

This article presents a novel approach to confidentiality violation detection based on taint marking. Information flows are dynamically tracked between applications and objects of the operating system such as files, processes and sockets. A confidentiality policy is defined by labelling sensitive information and defining which information may leave the local system through network exchanges. Furthermore, per application profiles can be defined to restrict the sets of information each application may access and/or send through the network. In previous works, we focused on the use of mandatory access control mechanisms for information flow tracking. In this current work, we have extended the previous information flow model to track network exchanges, and we are able to define a policy attached to network sockets. We show an example application of this extension in the context of a compromised web browser: our implementation detects a confidentiality violation when the browser attempts to leak private information to a remote host over the network.

Toward a shared understanding of competency in programming : an invitation to the BABELnot Project

The ICT degrees in most Australian universities have a sequence of up to three programming subjects, or units. BABELnot is an ALTC-funded project that will document the academic standards associated with those three subjects in the six participating universities and, if possible, at other universities. This will necessitate the development of a rich framework for describing the learning goals associated with programming. It will also be necessary to benchmark exam questions that are mapped onto this framework. As part of the project, workshops are planned for ACE 2012, ICER 2012 and ACE 2013, to elicit feedback from the broader Australasian computing education community, and to disseminate the project’s findings. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the project to that broader Australasian computing education community and to invite their active participation.

The motivation and structure of corrupt police networks : theorising the dark side of the ‘thin blue line’

In recent times considerable research attention has been directed to understanding dark networks, especially criminal and terrorist networks. Dark networks are those in which member motivations are self rather than public interested, achievements come at the cost of other individuals, groups or societies and, in addition, their activities are both ‘covert and illegal’ (Raab & Milward, 2003: 415). This ‘darkness’ has implications for the way in which these networks are structured, the strategies adopted and their recruitment methods. Such entities exhibit distinctive operating characteristics including most notably the tension between creating an efficient network structure while retaining the ability to hide from public view while avoiding catastrophic collapse should one member cooperate with authorities (Bouchard 2007). While theoretical emphasis has been on criminal and terrorist networks, recent work has demonstrated that corrupt police networks exhibit some distinctive characteristics. In particular, these entities operate within the shadows of a host organisation - the Police Force and distort the functioning of the ‘Thin Blue Line’ as the interface between the law abiding citizenry and the criminal society. Drawing on data derived from the Queensland Fitzgerald Commission of Enquiry into Police Misconduct and related documents, this paper examines the motivations, structural properties and operational practices of corrupt police networks and compares and contrasts these with other dark networks with ‘bright’ public service networks. The paper confirms the structural differences between dark corrupt police networks and bright networks and suggests. However, structural embeddedness alone is found to be an insufficient theoretical explanation for member involvement in networks and that a set of elements combine to impact decision-making. Although offering important insights into network participation, the paper’s findings are especially pertinent in identifying additional points of intervention for police corruption networks.

The collaborative push : pushing beyond rhetoric and gaining evidence

Collaboration has been enacted as a core strategy by both the government and nongovernment sectors to address many of the intractable issues confronting contemporary society. The cult of collaboration has become so pervasive that it is now an elastic term referring generally to any form of ‘working together’. The lack of specificity about collaboration and its practice means that it risks being reduced to mere rhetoric without sustained practice or action. Drawing on an extensive data set (qualitative, quantitative) of broadly collaborative endeavours gathered over ten years in Queensland, Australia, this paper aims to fill out the black box of collaboration. Specifically it examines the drivers for collaboration, dominant structures and mechanisms adopted, what has worked and unintended consequences. In particular it investigates the skills and competencies required in an embeded collaborative endeavour within and across organisations. Social network analysis is applied to isolate the structural properties of collaborations over other forms of integration as well as highlighting key roles and tasks. Collaboration is found to be a distinctive form of working together, characterised by intense and interdependent relationships and exchanges, higher levels of cohesion (density) and requiring new ways of behaving, working, managing and leading. These elements are configured into a practice framework. Developing an empirical evidence base for collaboration structure, practice and strategy provides a useful foundation for theory extension. The paper concludes that for collaboration, to be successfully employed as a management strategy it must move beyond rhetoric and develop a coherent model for action.

Risky strategic behaviour : unintended consequences of good intentions in the homelessness service system

The delivery of human services occurs through a complex and often volatile system characterised by both competing and cooperating efforts. A recent strategic intention of government has been to integrate disparate service providers and programs into a more effective and efficient system using competitive funding regimes. A program of amalgamation has also been forecast and promoted as a further mechanism by which to link up smaller agencies thus creating economy and efficiency in the scale and scope of their service modes. Despite the current reliance on competitive funding models and amalgamation as the preferred ways forward for the sector little is known about their integrative capacity including their ability to predict outcomes and their consequences : the ‘unknown unknowns’. Drawing on an extensive data set of human services integration initiatives in Queensland, Australia, this paper examines the impact of government policy and service models and the risks arising from the tensions between competition and accountability on the one hand and the established good will and trust on the other. It is argued that unresolved, these tensions can lead to a weakening of the social infrastructure and make the system more vulnerable to inherent systemic risks. The paper finds that government’s efforts to externalise risk to the non-government sector leads to fragmentation of the service system and fractured collaborative capability. These unintended outcomes themselves have the unintended consequence of leaving governments disconnected from the service system and unable to provide the leadership role and direction necessary for sustained integration. Moreover, facilitating such a leadership role is undermined by behaviours that are directly contrary to collective integration models.

Is the public sector ready to collaborate? Human resource implications of collaborative Arrangements

Relational governance arrangements across agencies and sectors have become prevalent as a means for government to become more responsive and effective in addressing complex, large scale or ‘wicked’ problems. The primary characteristic of such ‘collaborative’ arrangements is the utilisation of the joint capacities of multiple organisations to achieve collaborative advantage, which Huxham (1993) defines as the attainment of creative outcomes that are beyond the ability of single agencies to achieve. Attaining collaborative advantage requires organisations to develop collaborative capabilities that prepare organisations for collaborative practice (Huxham, 1993b). Further, collaborations require considerable investment of staff effort that could potentially be used beneficially elsewhere by both the government and non-government organisations involved in collaboration (Keast and Mandell, 2010). Collaborative arrangements to deliver services therefore requires a reconsideration of the way in which resources, including human resources, are conceptualised and deployed as well as changes to both the structure of public service agencies and the systems and processes by which they operate (Keast, forthcoming). A main aim of academic research and theorising has been to explore and define the requisite characteristics to achieve collaborative advantage. Such research has tended to focus on definitional, structural (Turrini, Cristofoli, Frosini, & Nasi, 2009) and organisational (Huxham, 1993) aspects and less on the roles government plays within cross-organisational or cross-sectoral arrangements. Ferlie and Steane (2002) note that there has been a general trend towards management led reforms of public agencies including the HRM practices utilised. Such trends have been significantly influenced by New Public Management (NPM) ideology with limited consideration to the implications for HRM practice in collaborative, rather than market contexts. Utilising case study data of a suite of collaborative efforts in Queensland, Australia, collected over a decade, this paper presents an examination of the network roles government agencies undertake. Implications for HRM in public sector agencies working within networked arrangements are drawn and implications for job design, recruitment, deployment and staff development are presented. The paper also makes theoretical advances in our understanding of Strategic Human Resource Management (SHRM) in network settings. While networks form part of the strategic armoury of government, networks operate to achieve collaborative advantage. SHRM with its focus on competitive advantage is argued to be appropriate in market situations, however is not an ideal conceptualisation in network situations. Commencing with an overview of literature on networks and network effectiveness, the paper presents the case studies and methodology; provides findings from the case studies in regard to the roles of government to achieve collaborative advantage and implications for HRM practice are presented. Implications for SHRM are considered.

Big, bigger, best? The impact of reforms on the not-for-profit sector in Queensland

Organisations within the not-for-profit sector provide services to individuals and groups that government and for-profit organisations cannot or will not consider. The not-for-profit sector has come to be a vibrant and rich agglomeration of services and programs that operate under a myriad of philosophical stances, service orientation, client groupings and operational capacities. In Australia these organisations and services are providing social support and service assistance to many people in the community; often targeting their assistance to the most difficult of clients. Initially, in undertaking this role, the not-for-profit sector received limited sponsorship from government. Over time governments assumed greater responsibility in the form of service grants to particular groups: ‘the worthy poor’. More recently, they have entered into contractual service agreements with the not-for-profit sector, which specify the nature of the outcomes to be achieved and, to a degree, the way in which the services will be provided. A consequence of this growing shift to a more marketised model of service contracting, often offered-up under the label of enhanced collaborative practice, has been increased competitiveness between agencies that had previously worked well together (Keast and Brown, 2006). Another trend emerging from the market approach is the entrance of for-profit providers. These larger organisations have higher levels of organisational capacity with considerable organisational slack to allow them to adopt new service roles. Shaped almost as ‘shadow governments’ they appear to be a strong preference for governments looking for greater accountability of outcomes and an easier way to control the interaction with the conventional not-for-profit sector. The question is will governments’ apparent preference for larger organisational arrangements lead to the demise of the vibrancy of the not-for-profit sector and impact on service provision to those people who fall outside of the remit of the new service providers? To address this issue, this paper uses information gleaned from a state-wide survey of not-for-profit organisations in Queensland, Australia which included organisational size, operational scope, funding arrangements and governance/management approaches. Supplementing this information is qualitative data derived from 17 focus groups and 120 interviews conducted over ten years of study of this sector. The findings contribute to greater understanding of the practice and theory of the future provision of social services.

Risk-informed thinking in airports: the application of business continuity management in airport infrastructure

Airports worldwide represent key forms of critical infrastructure in addition to serving as nodes in the international aviation network. While the continued operation of airports is critical to the functioning of reliable air passenger and freight transportation, these infrastructure systems face a number of sources of disturbance that threaten their operational viability. Recent examples of high magnitude events include the eruption of Iceland’s Eyjafjallajokull volcano eruption (Folattau and Schofield 2010), the failure of multiple systems at the opening of Heathrow’s Terminal 5 (Brady and Davies 2010) and the Glasgow airport 2007 terrorist attack (Crichton 2008). While these newsworthy events do occur, a multitude of lower-level more common disturbances also have the potential to cause significant discontinuity to airport operations. Regional airports face a unique set of challenges, particularly in a nation like Australia where they serve to link otherwise remote and isolated communities to metropolitan hubs (Wheeler 2005), often without the resources and political attention received by larger capital city airports. This paper discusses conceptual relationships between Business Continuity Management (BCM) and High Reliability Theory, and proposes BCM as an appropriate risk-based management process to ensure continued airport operation in the face of uncertainty. In addition, it argues that that correctly implemented BCM can lead to highly reliable organisations. This is framed within the broader context of critical infrastructures and the need for adequate crisis management approaches suited to their unique requirements (Boin and McConnell 2007).