A comparison of alternative bankruptcy prediction models

Early models of bankruptcy prediction employed financial ratios drawn from pre-bankruptcy financial statements and performed well both in-sample and out-of-sample. Since then there has been an ongoing effort in the literature to develop models with even greater predictive performance. A significant innovation in the literature was the introduction into bankruptcy prediction models of capital market data such as excess stock returns and stock return volatility, along with the application of the Black–Scholes–Merton option-pricing model. In this note, we test five key bankruptcy models from the literature using an upto- date data set and find that they each contain unique information regarding the probability of bankruptcy but that their performance varies over time. We build a new model comprising key variables from each of the five models and add a new variable that proxies for the degree of diversification within the firm. The degree of diversification is shown to be negatively associated with the risk of bankruptcy. This more general model outperforms the existing models in a variety of in-sample and out-of-sample tests.

Sing & Grow : the co-existence of evaluation research and clinical practice in an early intervention music therapy project

Sing & Grow is a short term early intervention music therapy program for at risk families. Sing & Grow uses music to strengthen parent-child relationships by increasing positive parent-child interactions, assisting parents to bond with their children, and extending the repertoire of parents’ skills in relating to their child through interactive . Both the Australian and New Zealand governments are looking for evidence based research to highlight the effectiveness of funded programs in early childhood. As a government funded program, independent evaluation is a requirement of the delivery of the service. This paper explains the process involved in setting up and managing this large scale evaluation from engaging the evaluators and designing the project, to the data gathering stage. It describes the various challenges encountered and concludes that a highly collaborative and communicative partnership bet en researchers and clinicians is essential to ensure data can be gathered with minimal disturbance to clinical music therapy practice.

Clinical factors and technological barriers as determinants for the intention to use wireless handheld technology in healthcare environment: an Indian case study

Abstract]: Traditional technology adoption models identified ‘ease of use’ and ‘usefulness’ as the dominating factors for technology adoption. However, recent studies in healthcare have established that these two factors are not always reliable on their own and other factors may influence technology adoption. To establish the identity of these additional factors, a mixed method approach was used and data were collected through interviews and a survey. The survey instrument was specifically developed for this study so that it is relevant to the Indian healthcare setting. We identified clinical management and technological barriers as the dominant factors influencing the wireless handheld technology adoption in the Indian healthcare environment. The results of this study showed that new technology models will benefit by considering the clinical influences of wireless handheld technology, in addition to known factors. The scope of this study is restricted to wireless handheld devices such as PDAs, smart phones, and handheld PCs Gururajan, Raj and Hafeez-Baig, Abdul and Gururajan, Vijaya

Occupational Therapy and Clinical Research in Mental Health Rehabilitation

Practitioners working in Australian mental health services are faced with the challenge of providing appropriate evidence-based interventions that lead to measurable improvement and good outcomes. Current government policy is committed to the development of strategic mental health research. One focus has been on under-researched practice areas, which include the development of psychosocial rehabilitation systems and models that facilitate recovery. To meet this challenge, an Australian rehabilitation service formed a collaborative partnership with a university. The purposes of the collaboration were to implement new forms of service delivery based on consumer need and evidence and to design research projects to evaluate components of the rehabilitation programme. This article examines the process of developing the collaboration and provides examples of how research projects have been used to inform practice and improve the effectiveness of service delivery. Challenges to the sustainability of this kind of collaboration are considered.

Using ‘think aloud’ as a strategy for learning clinical reasoning in high fidelity case-based simulation for undergraduate nursing students

AIMS This paper reports on the implementation of a research project that trials an educational strategy implemented over six months of an undergraduate third year nursing curriculum. This project aims to explore the effectiveness of ‘think aloud’ as a strategy for learning clinical reasoning for students in simulated clinical settings. BACKGROUND Nurses are required to apply and utilise critical thinking skills to enable clinical reasoning and problem solving in the clinical setting [1]. Nursing students are expected to develop and display clinical reasoning skills in practice, but may struggle articulating reasons behind decisions about patient care. For students learning to manage complex clinical situations, teaching approaches are required that make these instinctive cognitive processes explicit and clear [2-5]. In line with professional expectations, nursing students in third year at Queensland University of Technology (QUT) are expected to display clinical reasoning skills in practice. This can be a complex proposition for students in practice situations, particularly as the degree of uncertainty or decision complexity increases [6-7]. The ‘think aloud’ approach is an innovative learning/teaching method which can create an environment suitable for developing clinical reasoning skills in students [4, 8]. This project aims to use the ‘think aloud’ strategy within a simulation context to provide a safe learning environment in which third year students are assisted to uncover cognitive approaches that best assist them to make effective patient care decisions, and improve their confidence, clinical reasoning and active critical reflection on their practice. MEHODS In semester 2 2011 at QUT, third year nursing students will undertake high fidelity simulation, some for the first time commencing in September of 2011. There will be two cohorts for strategy implementation (group 1= use think aloud as a strategy within the simulation, group 2= not given a specific strategy outside of nursing assessment frameworks) in relation to problem solving patient needs. Students will be briefed about the scenario, given a nursing handover, placed into a simulation group and an observer group, and the facilitator/teacher will run the simulation from a control room, and not have contact (as a ‘teacher’) with students during the simulation. Then debriefing will occur as a whole group outside of the simulation room where the session can be reviewed on screen. The think aloud strategy will be described to students in their pre-simulation briefing and allow for clarification of this strategy at this time. All other aspects of the simulations remain the same, (resources, suggested nursing assessment frameworks, simulation session duration, size of simulation teams, preparatory materials). RESULTS Methodology of the project and the challenges of implementation will be the focus of this presentation. This will include ethical considerations in designing the project, recruitment of students and implementation of a voluntary research project within a busy educational curriculum which in third year targets 669 students over two campuses. CONCLUSIONS In an environment of increasingly constrained clinical placement opportunities, exploration of alternate strategies to improve critical thinking skills and develop clinical reasoning and problem solving for nursing students is imperative in preparing nurses to respond to changing patient needs. References 1. Lasater, K., High-fidelity simulation and the development of clinical judgement: students' experiences. Journal of Nursing Education, 2007. 46(6): p. 269-276. 2. Lapkin, S., et al., Effectiveness of patient simulation manikins in teaching clinical reasoning skills to undergraduate nursing students: a systematic review. Clinical Simulation in Nursing, 2010. 6(6): p. e207-22. 3. Kaddoura, M.P.C.M.S.N.R.N., New Graduate Nurses' Perceptions of the Effects of Clinical Simulation on Their Critical Thinking, Learning, and Confidence. The Journal of Continuing Education in Nursing, 2010. 41(11): p. 506. 4. Banning, M., The think aloud approach as an educational tool to develop and assess clinical reasoning in undergraduate students. Nurse Education Today, 2008. 28: p. 8-14. 5. Porter-O'Grady, T., Profound change:21st century nursing. Nursing Outlook, 2001. 49(4): p. 182-186. 6. Andersson, A.K., M. Omberg, and M. Svedlund, Triage in the emergency department-a qualitative study of the factors which nurses consider when making decisions. Nursing in Critical Care, 2006. 11(3): p. 136-145. 7. O'Neill, E.S., N.M. Dluhy, and C. Chin, Modelling novice clinical reasoning for a computerized decision support system. Journal of Advanced Nursing, 2005. 49(1): p. 68-77. 8. Lee, J.E. and N. Ryan-Wenger, The "Think Aloud" seminar for teaching clinical reasoning: a case study of a child with pharyngitis. J Pediatr Health Care, 1997. 11(3): p. 101-10.

The development of a program to assist international nursing students to be prepared for clinical practice in the Australian health care context

Health education in Western Countries has grown considerably in the last decade and this has occurred for a number of reasons. Specifically Universities actively recruit International students as the health workforce becomes global; also it is much easier for students to move and study globally. Internationally there is a health workforce shortage and if students gain a degree in a reputable university their ability to work globally is improved significantly. However, when studying to practice in the health care field the student must undertake clinical practice in an acute or aged care setting. This can be a significant problem for students who are culturally and linguistically diverse in an English speaking country such as Australia. The issues that can arise stem from the language differences where communication, interpretation understanding and reading the cultural norms of the health care setting are major challenges for International students. To assist international students to be successful in their clinical education, an extra curriculum workshop program was developed to provide additional support. The program which runs twice each year includes on-campus interactive workshops that are complemented by targeted support provided for students and clinical staff who are supervising students’ practice experience in the workplace. As this is an English speaking country the workshop is based on practicing reading, writing, listening and speaking, as well as exploring basic health care concepts and cultural differences. This enables students to gain knowledge of and practice interpretation of cultural norms and expectations in a safe environment. This innovative series of interactive workshops in a highly student-centred learning environment combine education with role play and discussion with peers who are supported by culturally aware and competent Educators. Over the years it has been running, the program has been undertaken by an increasing number of students. In 2011, more than 100 students are expected to participate. Student evaluation of the program has confirmed that it has assisted the majority of them to be successful in their clinical studies. Effectiveness of the project is measured throughout the program and in follow up sessions. This ongoing information allows for continuous development of the program that serves to meet individual needs of the International student, the University and Service providers such as the hospitals. This feedback from students regarding their increased comprehension of the Australian colloquial Language, healthcare terminology, critical thinking and clinical skill development and a cultural awareness also enables them to maintain their feelings of self confidence and self esteem.

Prediction of structural integrity, robustness and service life using advanced finite element methods

Corrosion is a common phenomenon and critical aspects of steel structural application. It affects the daily design, inspection and maintenance in structural engineering, especially for the heavy and complex industrial applications, where the steel structures are subjected to hash corrosive environments in combination of high working stress condition and often in open field and/or under high temperature production environments. In the paper, it presents the actual engineering application of advanced finite element methods in the predication of the structural integrity and robustness at a designed service life for the furnaces of alumina production, which was operated in the high temperature, corrosive environments and rotating with high working stress condition.

An exploration of young students' ability to generalise function tasks

The Early Years Generalising Project involves Australian students, Years 1-4 (age 5-9), and explores how the students grasp and express generalisations. This paper focuses on the data collected from clinical interviews with Year 3 and 4 cohorts in an investigative study focusing on the identifications, prediction and justification of function rules. It reports on students' attempts to generalise from function machine contexts, describing the various ways students express generalisation and highlighting the different levels of justification given by students. Finally, we conjecture that there are a set of stages in the expression and justification of generalisations that assist students to reach generality within tasks.

Training clinical psychologists : The current situation and a way forward [Guest Editorial]

In the past, training in clinical psychology in Australia and overseas has been dominated by definitions of input— hours of classes or supervision and of specific components. While prospective practitioners have been required to demonstrate the acquisition of generic competencies, satisfaction of these input driven criteria has been required for both accreditation and registration. Ironically, for a discipline that prides itself on requiring empirical bases for practice and communicating those to students (Calhoun, Moras, Pilkonis, & Rehm, 1998), training criteria have been primarily derived from accepted wisdom, rather than from a sound body of data. The situation has been remarkably like that of a treatment establishing standards of fidelity before its effective components are known—an action our profession has correctly criticised in the past (Herbert & Mueser, 1992).

Body composition and its relationship to metabolic risk factors in Asian children

Obesity is a major public health problem in both developed and developing countries. The body mass index (BMI) is the most common index used to define obesity. The universal application of the same BMI classification across different ethnic groups is being challenged due to the inability of the index to differentiate fat mass (FM) and fat�]free mass (FFM) and the recognized ethnic differences in body composition. A better understanding of the body composition of Asian children from different backgrounds would help to better understand the obesity�]related health risks of people in this region. Moreover, the limitations of the BMI underscore the necessity to use where possible, more accurate measures of body fat assessment in research and clinical settings in addition to BMI, particularly in relation to the monitoring of prevention and treatment efforts. The aim of the first study was to determine the ethnic difference in the relationship between BMI and percent body fat (%BF) in pre�]pubertal Asian children from China, Lebanon, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. A total of 1039 children aged 8�]10 y were recruited using a non�]random purposive sampling approach aiming to encompass a wide BMI range from the five countries. Percent body fat (%BF) was determined using the deuterium dilution technique to quantify total body water (TBW) and subsequently derive proportions of FM and FFM. The study highlighted the sex and ethnic differences between BMI and %BF in Asian children from different countries. Girls had approximately 4.0% higher %BF compared with boys at a given BMI. Filipino boys tended to have a lower %BF than their Chinese, Lebanese, Malay and Thai counterparts at the same age and BMI level (corrected mean %BF was 25.7�}0.8%, 27.4�}0.4%, 27.1�}0.6%, 27.7�}0.5%, 28.1�}0.5% for Filipino, Chinese, Lebanese, Malay and Thai boys, respectively), although they differed significantly from Thai and Malay boys. Thai girls had approximately 2.0% higher %BF values than Chinese, Lebanese, Filipino and Malay counterparts (however no significant difference was seen among the four ethnic groups) at a given BMI (corrected mean %BF was 31.1�}0.5%, 28.6�}0.4%, 29.2�}0.6%, 29.5�}0.6%, 29.5�}0.5% for Thai, Chinese, Lebanese, Malay and Filipino girls, respectively). However, the ethnic difference in BMI�]%BF relationship varied by BMI. Compared with Caucasians, Asian children had a BMI 3�]6 units lower for a given %BF. More than one third of obese Asian children in the study were not identified using the WHO classification and more than half were not identified using the International Obesity Task Force (IOTF) classification. However, use of the Chinese classification increased the sensitivity by 19.7%, 18.1%, 2.3%, 2.3%, and 11.3% for Chinese, Lebanese, Malay, Filipino and Thai girls, respectively. A further aim of the first study was to determine the ethnic difference in body fat distribution in pre�]pubertal Asian children from China, Lebanon, Malaysia, and Thailand. The skin fold thicknesses, height, weight, waist circumference (WC) and total adiposity (as determined by deuterium dilution technique) of 922 children from the four countries was assessed. Chinese boys and girls had a similar trunk�]to�]extremity skin fold thickness ratio to Thai counterparts and both groups had higher ratios than the Malays and Lebanese at a given total FM. At a given BMI, both Chinese and Thai boys and girls had a higher WC than Malays and Lebanese (corrected mean WC was 68.1�}0.2 cm, 67.8�}0.3 cm, 65.8�}0.4 cm, 64.1�}0.3 cm for Chinese, Thai, Lebanese and Malay boys, respectively; 64.2�}0.2 cm, 65.0�}0.3 cm, 62.9�}0.4 cm, 60.6�}0.3 cm for Chinese, Thai, Lebanese and Malay girls, respectively). Chinese boys and girls had lower trunk fat adjusted subscapular/suprailiac skinfold ratio compared with Lebanese and Malay counterparts. The second study aimed to develop and cross�]validate bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) prediction equations of TBW and FFM for Asian pre�]pubertal children from China, Lebanon, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Thailand. Data on height, weight, age, gender, resistance and reactance measured by BIA were collected from 948 Asian children (492 boys and 456 girls) aged 8�]10 y from the five countries. The deuterium dilution technique was used as the criterion method for the estimation of TBW and FFM. The BIA equations were developed from the validation group (630 children randomly selected from the total sample) using stepwise multiple regression analysis and cross�]validated in a separate group (318 children) using the Bland�]Altman approach. Age, gender and ethnicity influenced the relationship between the resistance index (RI = height2/resistance), TBW and FFM. The BIA prediction equation for the estimation of TBW was: TBW (kg) = 0.231�~Height2 (cm)/resistance (ƒ¶) + 0.066�~Height (cm) + 0.188�~Weight (kg) + 0.128�~Age (yr) + 0.500�~Sex (male=1, female=0) . 0.316�~Ethnicity (Thai ethnicity=1, others=0) �] 4.574, and for the estimation of FFM: FFM (kg) = 0.299�~Height2 (cm)/resistance (ƒ¶) + 0.086�~Height (cm) + 0.245�~Weight (kg) + 0.260�~Age (yr) + 0.901�~Sex (male=1, female=0) �] 0.415�~Ethnicity (Thai ethnicity=1, others=0) �] 6.952. The R2 was 88.0% (root mean square error, RSME = 1.3 kg), 88.3% (RSME = 1.7 kg) for TBW and FFM equation, respectively. No significant difference between measured and predicted TBW and between measured and predicted FFM for the whole cross�]validation sample was found (bias = �]0.1�}1.4 kg, pure error = 1.4�}2.0 kg for TBW and bias = �]0.2�}1.9 kg, pure error = 1.8�}2.6 kg for FFM). However, the prediction equation for estimation of TBW/FFM tended to overestimate TBW/FFM at lower levels while underestimate at higher levels of TBW/FFM. Accuracy of the general equation for TBW and FFM compared favorably with both BMI�]specific and ethnic�]specific equations. There were significant differences between predicted TBW and FFM from external BIA equations derived from Caucasian populations and measured values in Asian children. There were three specific aims of the third study. The first was to explore the relationship between obesity and metabolic syndrome and abnormalities in Chinese children. A total of 608 boys and 800 girls aged 6�]12 y were recruited from four cities in China. Three definitions of pediatric metabolic syndrome and abnormalities were used, including the International Diabetes Federation (IDF) and National Cholesterol Education Program (NCEP) definition for adults modified by Cook et al. and de Ferranti et al. The prevalence of metabolic syndrome varied with different definitions, was highest using the de Ferranti definition (5.4%, 24.6% and 42.0%, respectively for normal�]weight, overweight and obese children), followed by the Cook definition (1.5%, 8.1%, and 25.1%, respectively), and the IDF definition (0.5%, 1.8% and 8.3%, respectively). Overweight and obese children had a higher risk of developing the metabolic syndrome compared to normal�]weight children (odds ratio varied with different definitions from 3.958 to 6.866 for overweight children, and 12.640�]26.007 for obese children). Overweight and obesity also increased the risk of developing metabolic abnormalities. Central obesity and high triglycerides (TG) were the most common while hyperglycemia was the least frequent in Chinese children regardless of different definitions. The second purpose was to determine the best obesity index for the prediction of cardiovascular (CV) risk factor clustering across a 2�]y follow�]up among BMI, %BF, WC and waist�]to�]height ratio (WHtR) in Chinese children. Height, weight, WC, %BF as determined by BIA, blood pressure, TG, high�]density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL�]C), and fasting glucose were collected at baseline and 2 years later in 292 boys and 277 girls aged 8�]10 y. The results showed the percentage of children who remained overweight/obese defined on the basis of BMI, WC, WHtR and %BF was 89.7%, 93.5%, 84.5%, and 80.4%, respectively after 2 years. Obesity indices at baseline significantly correlated with TG, HDL�]C, and blood pressure at both baseline and 2 years later with a similar strength of correlations. BMI at baseline explained the greatest variance of later blood pressure. WC at baseline explained the greatest variance of later HDL�]C and glucose, while WHtR at baseline was the main predictor of later TG. Receiver�]operating characteristic (ROC) analysis explored the ability of the four indices to identify the later presence of CV risk. The overweight/obese children defined on the basis of BMI, WC, WHtR or %BF were more likely to develop CV risk 2 years later with relative risk (RR) scores of 3.670, 3.762, 2.767, and 2.804, respectively. The final purpose of the third study was to develop age�] and gender�]specific percentiles of WC and WHtR and cut�]off points of WC and WHtR for the prediction of CV risk in Chinese children. Smoothed percentile curves of WC and WHtR were produced in 2830 boys and 2699 girls aged 6�]12 y randomly selected from southern and northern China using the LMS method. The optimal age�] and gender�]specific thresholds of WC and WHtR for the prediction of cardiovascular risk factors clustering were derived in a sub�]sample (n=1845) by ROC analysis. Age�] and gender�]specific WC and WHtR percentiles were constructed. The WC thresholds were at the 90th and 84th percentiles for Chinese boys and girls, respectively, with sensitivity and specificity ranging from 67.2% to 83.3%. The WHtR thresholds were at the 91st and 94th percentiles for Chinese boys and girls, respectively, with sensitivity and specificity ranging from 78.6% to 88.9%. The cut�]offs of both WC and WHtR were age�] and gender�]dependent. In conclusion, the current thesis quantifies the ethnic differences in the BMI�]%BF relationship and body fat distribution between Asian children from different origins and confirms the necessity to consider ethnic differences in body composition when developing BMI and other obesity index criteria for obesity in Asian children. Moreover, ethnicity is also important in BIA prediction equations. In addition, WC and WHtR percentiles and thresholds for the prediction of CV risk in Chinese children differ from other populations. Although there was no advantage of WC or WHtR over BMI or %BF in the prediction of CV risk, obese children had a higher risk of developing the metabolic syndrome and abnormalities than normal�]weight children regardless of the obesity index used.

Comparative study of coagulase negative Staphylococci (CoNS) from clinical isolates, skin and nasal sources

Staphylococci are important pathogenic bacteria responsible for a range of diseases in humans. The most frequently isolated microorganisms in a hospital microbiology laboratory are staphylococci. The general classification of staphylococci divides them into two major groups; Coagulase-positive staphylococci (e.g. Staphylococcus aureus) and Coagulase-negative staphylococci (e.g. Staphylococcus epidermidis). Coagulase-negative staphylococcal (CoNS) isolates include a variety of species and many different strains but are often dominated by the most important organism of this group, S. epidermidis. Currently, these organisms are regarded as important pathogenic organisms causing infections related to prosthetic materials and surgical wounds. A significant number of S. epidermidis isolates are also resistant to different antimicrobial agents. Virulence factors in CoNS are not very clearly established and not well documented. S. epidermidis is evolving as a resistant and powerful microbe related to nosocomial infections because it has different properties which independently, and in combination, make it a successful infectious agent, especially in the hospital environment. Such characteristics include biofilm formation, drug resistance and the evolution of genetic variables. The purpose of this project was to develop a novel SNP genotyping method to genotype S. epidermidis strains originating from hospital patients and healthy individuals. High-Resolution Melt Analysis was used to assign binary typing profiles to both clinical and commensal strains using a new bioinformatics approach. The presence of antibiotic resistance genes and biofilm coding genes were also interrogated in these isolates.