Risk factor analysis and spatiotemporal CART model of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia

Background: It remains unclear whether it is possible to develop a spatiotemporal epidemic prediction model for cryptosporidiosis disease. This paper examined the impact of social economic and weather factors on cryptosporidiosis and explored the possibility of developing such a model using social economic and weather data in Queensland, Australia. ----- ----- Methods: Data on weather variables, notified cryptosporidiosis cases and social economic factors in Queensland were supplied by the Australian Bureau of Meteorology, Queensland Department of Health, and Australian Bureau of Statistics, respectively. Three-stage spatiotemporal classification and regression tree (CART) models were developed to examine the association between social economic and weather factors and monthly incidence of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia. The spatiotemporal CART model was used for predicting the outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia. ----- ----- Results: The results of the classification tree model (with incidence rates defined as binary presence/absence) showed that there was an 87% chance of an occurrence of cryptosporidiosis in a local government area (LGA) if the socio-economic index for the area (SEIFA) exceeded 1021, while the results of regression tree model (based on non-zero incidence rates) show when SEIFA was between 892 and 945, and temperature exceeded 32°C, the relative risk (RR) of cryptosporidiosis was 3.9 (mean morbidity: 390.6/100,000, standard deviation (SD): 310.5), compared to monthly average incidence of cryptosporidiosis. When SEIFA was less than 892 the RR of cryptosporidiosis was 4.3 (mean morbidity: 426.8/100,000, SD: 319.2). A prediction map for the cryptosporidiosis outbreak was made according to the outputs of spatiotemporal CART models. ----- ----- Conclusions: The results of this study suggest that spatiotemporal CART models based on social economic and weather variables can be used for predicting the outbreak of cryptosporidiosis in Queensland, Australia.

Insulin-like growth factor-i : vitronectin complex-induced changes in gene expression effect breast cell survival and migration

Recent studies have demonstrated that IGF-I associates with VN through IGF-binding proteins (IGFBP) which in turn modulate IGF-stimulated biological functions such as cell proliferation, attachment and migration. Since IGFs play important roles in transformation and progression of breast tumours, we aimed to describe the effects of IGF-I:IGFBP:VN complexes on breast cell function and to dissect mechanisms underlying these responses. In this study we demonstrate that substrate-bound IGF-I:IGFBP:VN complexes are potent stimulators of MCF-7 breast cell survival, which is mediated by a transient activation of ERK/MAPK and sustained activation of PI3-K/AKT pathways. Furthermore, use of pharmacological inhibitors of the MAPK and PI3-K pathways confirms that both pathways are involved in IGF-I:IGFBP:VN complex-mediated increased cell survival. Microarray analysis of cells stimulated to migrate in response to IGF-I:IGFBP:VN complexes identified differential expression of genes with previously reported roles in migration, invasion and survival (Ephrin-B2, Sharp-2, Tissue-factor, Stratifin, PAI-1, IRS-1). These changes were not detected when the IGF-I analogue (\[L24]\[A31]-IGF-I), which fails to bind to the IGF-I receptor, was substituted; confirming the IGF-I-dependent differential expression of genes associated with enhanced cell migration. Taken together, these studies have established that IGF-I:IGFBP:VN complexes enhance breast cell migration and survival, processes central to facilitating metastasis. This study highlights the interdependence of ECM and growth factor interactions in biological functions critical for metastasis and identifies potential novel therapeutic targets directed at preventing breast cancer progression.

Automated error correction of business process models

As order dependencies between process tasks can get complex, it is easy to make mistakes in process model design, especially behavioral ones such as deadlocks. Notions such as soundness formalize behavioral errors and tools exist that can identify such errors. However these tools do not provide assistance with the correction of the process models. Error correction can be very challenging as the intentions of the process modeler are not known and there may be many ways in which an error can be corrected. We present a novel technique for automatic error correction in process models based on simulated annealing. Via this technique a number of process model alternatives are identified that resolve one or more errors in the original model. The technique is implemented and validated on a sample of industrial process models. The tests show that at least one sound solution can be found for each input model and that the response times are short.

Bayes Factor based speaker segmentation for speaker diarization

This paper proposes the use of the Bayes Factor as a distance metric for speaker segmentation within a speaker diarization system. The proposed approach uses a pair of constant sized, sliding windows to compute the value of the Bayes Factor between the adjacent windows over the entire audio. Results obtained on the 2002 Rich Transcription Evaluation dataset show an improved segmentation performance compared to previous approaches reported in literature using the Generalized Likelihood Ratio. When applied in a speaker diarization system, this approach results in a 5.1% relative improvement in the overall Diarization Error Rate compared to the baseline.

Automatically detecting pain in video through facial action units

In a clinical setting, pain is reported either through patient self-report or via an observer. Such measures are problematic as they are: 1) subjective, and 2) give no specific timing information. Coding pain as a series of facial action units (AUs) can avoid these issues as it can be used to gain an objective measure of pain on a frame-by-frame basis. Using video data from patients with shoulder injuries, in this paper, we describe an active appearance model (AAM)-based system that can automatically detect the frames in video in which a patient is in pain. This pain data set highlights the many challenges associated with spontaneous emotion detection, particularly that of expression and head movement due to the patient's reaction to pain. In this paper, we show that the AAM can deal with these movements and can achieve significant improvements in both the AU and pain detection performance compared to the current-state-of-the-art approaches which utilize similarity-normalized appearance features only.

Evidence of multiwall carbon nanotube deformation caused by poly(3-hexylthiophene) adhesion

We show that when a soft polymer like Poly(3-hexyl-thiophene) wraps multiwall nanotubes by coiling around the main axis, a localized deformation of the nanotube structure is observed. High resolution transmission electron microscopy shows that radial compressions of about 4% can take place, and could possibly lead to larger interlayer distance between the nanotube inner walls and reduce the innermost nanotube radius. The mechanical stress due to the polymer presence was confirmed by Raman spectroscopic observation of a gradual upshift of the carbon nanotube G-band when the polymer content in the composites was progressively increased. Vibrational spectroscopy also indicates that charge transfer from the polymer to the nanotubes is responsible for a peak frequency relative downshift for high P3HT-content samples. Continuously acquired transmission electron microscopy images at rising temperature show the MWCNT elastic compression and relaxation due to polymer rearrangement on the nanotube surface.

Luxury fashion: The role of innovation as a key contributing factor in the development of luxury fashion goods and sustainable fashion design

Luxury is a quality that is difficult to define as the historical concept of luxury appears to be both dynamic and culturally specific. The everyday definition explains a ‘luxury’ in relation to a necessity: a luxury (product or service) is defined as something that consumers want rather than need. However, the growth of global markets has seen a boom in what are now referred to as ‘luxury brands’. This branding of products as luxury has resulted in a change in the way consumers understand luxury goods and services. In their attempts to characterize a luxury brand, Fionda & Moore in their article “The anatomy of a Luxury Brand” summarize a range of critical conditions that are in addition to product branding “... including product and design attributes of quality, craftsmanship and innovative, creative and unique products” (Fionda & Moore, 2009). For the purposes of discussing fashion design however, quality and craftsmanship are inseparable while creativity and innovation exist under different conditions. The terms ‘creative’ and ‘innovative’ are often used inter-changeably and are connected with most descriptions of the design process, defining ‘design’ and ‘fashion’ in many cases. Christian Marxt and Fredrik Hacklin identify this condition in their paper “Design, product development, innovation: all the same in the end?”(Marxt & Hacklin, 2005) and suggest that design communities should be aware that the distinction between these terms, whilst once quite definitive, is becoming narrow to a point where they will mean the same thing. In relation to theory building in the discipline this could pose significant problems. Brett Richards (2003) identifies innovation as different from creativity in that innovation aims to transform and implement rather than simply explore and invent. Considering this distinction, in particular relation to luxury branding, may affect the way in which design can contribute to a change in the way luxury fashion goods might be perceived in a polarised fashion market, namely suggesting that ‘luxury’ is what consumers need rather than the ‘pile it high, sell it cheap’ fashion that the current market dynamic would indicate they want. This paper attempts to explore the role of innovation as a key contributing factor in luxury concepts, in particular the relationship between innovation and creativity, the conditions which enable innovation, the role of craftsmanship in innovation and design innovation in relation to luxury fashion products. An argument is presented that technological innovation can be demonstrated as a common factor in the development of luxury fashion product and that the connection between designer and maker will play an important role in the development of luxury fashion goods for a sustainable fashion industry.

Patient-specific computational biomechanics for simulating adolescent scoliosis surgery : predicted vs clinical correction for a preliminary series of six patients

Scoliosis is a spinal deformity that requires surgical correction in progressive cases. In order to optimize surgical outcomes, patient-specific finite element models are being developed by our group. In this paper, a single rod anterior correction procedure is simulated for a group of six scoliosis patients. For each patient, personalised model geometry was derived from low-dose CT scans, and clinically measured intra-operative corrective forces were applied. However, tissue material properties were not patient-specific, being derived from existing literature. Clinically, the patient group had a mean initial Cobb angle of 47.3 degrees, which was corrected to 17.5 degrees after surgery. The mean simulated post-operative Cobb angle for the group was 18.1 degrees. Although this represents good agreement between clinical and simulated corrections, the discrepancy between clinical and simulated Cobb angle for individual patients varied between -10.3 and +8.6 degrees, with only three of the six patients matching the clinical result to within accepted Cobb measurement error of +-5 degrees. The results of this study suggest that spinal tissue material properties play an important role in governing the correction obtained during surgery, and that patient-specific modelling approaches must address the question of how to prescribe patient-specific soft tissue properties for spine surgery simulation.

Scaffolding large units for small group collaborative learning : a case study.

Undergraduates working in teams can be a problematic endeavour, sometimes exacerbated for the student by poor prior experiences, a predisposition to an individual orientation of assessment, and simply the busyness that now typifies the life of a student. But effort in pedagogical design is worthwhile where team work is often a prerequisite in terms of graduate capabilities, robust learning, increased motivation, and indeed in terms of equipping individuals for emergent knowledge-age work practice, often epitomised by collaborative effort in both blended and virtual contexts. Through an iterative approach, based extensively on the established literature, we have developed a successful scaffold which is workable with a large cohort group (n >800), such that it affords students the lived experience of being a part of a learning network. Individuals within teams work together, to develop individual components that are subsequently aggregated and reified to an overall team knowledge artefact. We describe our case and propose a pedagogical model of scaffolding based on three perspectives: conceptual, rule-based and community-driven. This model provides designers with guidelines for producing and refining assessment tasks for team-based learning.

Carbon financing and the Australian emissions trading scheme : less emissions, more opportunities?

The introduction by the Australian federal government of its Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme was a decisive step in the transformation of Australia into a low carbon economy. Since the release of the Scheme, however, political discourse relating to environmental sustainability and climate change in Australia has focused primarily on political, scientific and economic issues. Insufficient attention has been paid to the financial opportunities which commoditisation of the carbon market may offer, and little emphasis has been placed on the legal implications for the creation of a "new" asset and market. This article seeks to shed some light on the discernable opportunities which the Scheme should provide to participants in the Australian and international debt markets.

Prediction model of the buildup of volatile organic compounds on urban roads

A model to predict the buildup of mainly traffic-generated volatile organic compounds or VOCs (toluene, ethylbenzene, ortho-xylene, meta-xylene, and para-xylene) on urban road surfaces is presented. The model required three traffic parameters, namely average daily traffic (ADT), volume to capacity ratio (V/C), and surface texture depth (STD), and two chemical parameters, namely total suspended solid (TSS) and total organic carbon (TOC), as predictor variables. Principal component analysis and two phase factor analysis were performed to characterize the model calibration parameters. Traffic congestion was found to be the underlying cause of traffic-related VOC buildup on urban roads. The model calibration was optimized using orthogonal experimental design. Partial least squares regression was used for model prediction. It was found that a better optimized orthogonal design could be achieved by including the latent factors of the data matrix into the design. The model performed fairly accurately for three different land uses as well as five different particle size fractions. The relative prediction errors were 10–40% for the different size fractions and 28–40% for the different land uses while the coefficients of variation of the predicted intersite VOC concentrations were in the range of 25–45% for the different size fractions. Considering the sizes of the data matrices, these coefficients of variation were within the acceptable interlaboratory range for analytes at ppb concentration levels.

A biomechanical investigation of vertebral staples for fusionless scoliosis correction

Background: Fusionless scoliosis surgery is an early-stage treatment for idiopathic scoliosis which claims potential advantages over current fusion-based surgical procedures. Anterior vertebral stapling using a shape memory alloy staple is one such approach. Despite increasing interest in this technique, little is known about the effects on the spine following insertion, or the mechanism of action of the staple. The purpose of this study was to investigate the biomechanical consequences of staple insertion in the anterior thoracic spine, using in vitro experiments on an immature bovine model. Methods: Individual calf spine thoracic motion segments were tested in flexion, extension, lateral bending and axial rotation. Changes in motion segment rotational stiffness following staple insertion were measured on a series of 14 specimens. Strain gauges were attached to three of the staples in the series to measure forces transmitted through the staple during loading. A micro-CT scan of a single specimen was performed after loading to qualitatively examine damage to the vertebral bone caused by the staple. Findings: Small but statistically significant decreases in bending stiffness occurred in flexion,extension, lateral bending away from the staple, and axial rotation away from the staple. Each strain-gauged staple showed a baseline compressive loading following insertion which was seen to gradually decrease during testing. Post-test micro-CT showed substantial bone and growth plate damage near the staple. Interpretation: Based on our findings it is possible that growth modulation following staple insertion is due to tissue damage rather than sustained mechanical compression of the motion segment.

What aspects of the scoliosis correction are most important to the teenager who has keyhole scoliosis correction surgery? A prospective series of 100 patients

Introduction. Surgical treatment of scoliosis is assessed in the spine clinic by the surgeon making numerous measurements on X-Rays as well as the rib hump. But it is important to understand which of these measures correlate with self-reported improvements in patients’ quality of life following surgery. The objective of this study was to examine the relationship between patient satisfaction after thoracoscopic (keyhole) anterior scoliosis surgery and standard deformity correction measures using the Scoliosis Research Society (SRS) adolescent questionnaire. Methods. A series of 100 consecutive adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients received a single anterior rod via a keyhole approach at the Mater Children’s Hospital, Brisbane. Patients completed SRS outcomes questionnaires before surgery and again at 24 months after surgery. Multiple regression and t-tests were used to investigate the relationship between SRS scores and deformity correction achieved after surgery. Results. There were 94 females and 6 males with a mean age of 16.1 years. The mean Cobb angle improved from 52º pre-operatively to 21º for the instrumented levels post-operatively (59% correction) and the mean rib hump improved from 16º to 8º (51% correction). The mean total SRS score for the cohort was 99.4/120 which indicated a high level of satisfaction with the results of their scoliosis surgery. None of the deformity related parameters in the multiple regressions were significant. However, the twenty patients with the smallest Cobb angles after surgery reported significantly higher SRS scores than the twenty patients with the largest Cobb angles after surgery, but there was no difference on the basis of rib hump correction. Discussion. Patients undergoing thoracoscopic (keyhole) anterior scoliosis correction report good SRS scores which are comparable to those in previous studies. We suggest that the absence of any statistically significant difference in SRS scores between patients with and without rod or screw complications is because these complications are not associated with any clinically significant loss of correction in our patient group. The Cobb angle after surgery was the only significant predictor of patient satisfaction when comparing subgroups of patients with the largest and smallest Cobb angles after surgery.

The measurement of applied forces during anterior single rod surgical correction of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis

INTRODUCTION. Following anterior thoracoscopic instrumentation and fusion for the treatment of thoracic AIS, implant related complications have been reported as high as 20.8%. Currently the magnitudes of the forces applied to the spine during anterior scoliosis surgery are unknown. The aim of this study was to measure the segmental compressive forces applied during anterior single rod instrumentation in a series of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis patients. METHODS. A force transducer was designed, constructed and retrofitted to a surgical cable compression tool, routinely used to apply segmental compression during anterior scoliosis correction. Transducer output was continuously logged during the compression of each spinal joint, the output at completion converted to an applied compression force using calibration data. The angle between adjacent vertebral body screws was also measured on intra-operative frontal plane fluoroscope images taken both before and after each joint compression. The difference in angle between the two images was calculated as an estimate for the achieved correction at each spinal joint. RESULTS. Force measurements were obtained for 15 scoliosis patients (Aged 11-19 years) with single thoracic curves (Cobb angles 47˚- 67˚). In total, 95 spinal joints were instrumented. The average force applied for a single joint was 540 N (± 229 N)ranging between 88 N and 1018 N. Experimental error in the force measurement, determined from transducer calibration was ± 43 N. A trend for higher forces applied at joints close to the apex of the scoliosis was observed. The average joint correction angle measured by fluoroscope imaging was 4.8˚ (±2.6˚, range 0˚-12.6˚). CONCLUSION. This study has quantified in-vivo, the intra-operative correction forces applied by the surgeon during anterior single rod instrumentation. This data provides a useful contribution towards an improved understanding of the biomechanics of scoliosis correction. In particular, this data will be used as input for developing patient-specific finite element simulations of scoliosis correction surgery.