A closed-form approximation for pricing temperature-based weather derivatives

This paper develops analytical distributions of temperature indices on which temperature derivatives are written. If the deviations of daily temperatures from their expected values are modelled as an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process with timevarying variance, then the distributions of the temperature index on which the derivative is written is the sum of truncated, correlated Gaussian deviates. The key result of this paper is to provide an analytical approximation to the distribution of this sum, thus allowing the accurate computation of payoffs without the need for any simulation. A data set comprising average daily temperature spanning over a hundred years for four Australian cities is used to demonstrate the efficacy of this approach for estimating the payoffs to temperature derivatives. It is demonstrated that expected payoffs computed directly from historical records are a particularly poor approach to the problem when there are trends in underlying average daily temperature. It is shown that the proposed analytical approach is superior to historical pricing.

Transcription and expression of Plasmodium falciparum histidine-rich proteins in different stages and strains : implications for rapid diagnostic tests

Background: Although rapid diagnostic tests (RDTs) for Plasmodium falciparum infection that target histidine rich protein 2 (PfHRP2) are generally sensitive, their performance has been reported to be variable. One possible explanation for variable test performance is differences in expression level of PfHRP in different parasite isolates. Methods: Total RNA and protein were extracted from synchronised cultures of 7 P. falciparum lines over 5 time points of the life cycle, and from synchronised ring stages of 10 falciparum lines. Using quantitative real-time polymerase chain reaction, Western blot analysis and ELISA we investigated variations in the transcription and protein levels of pfhrp2, pfhrp3 and PfHRP respectively in the different parasite lines, over the parasite intraerythrocytic life cycle. Results: Transcription of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3 in different parasite lines over the parasite life cycle was observed to vary relative to the control parasite K1. In some parasite lines very low transcription of these genes was observed. The peak transcription was observed in ring-stage parasites. Pfhrp2 transcription was observed to be consistently higher than pfhrp3 transcription within parasite lines. The intraerythrocytic lifecycle stage at which the peak level of protein was present varied across strains. Total protein levels were more constant relative to total mRNA transcription, however a maximum 24 fold difference in expression at ring-stage parasites relative to the K1 strain was observed. Conclusions: The levels of transcription of pfhrp2 and pfhrp3, and protein expression of PfHRP varied between different P. falciparum strains. This variation may impact on the detection sensitivity of PfHRP2-detecting RDTs.

Comparison of diagnostic tests in myasthenia gravis

Results of 3 tests, intravenous edrophonium chloride, EMG, and acetylcholine receptor antibody testing, were compared in patients with generalised and ocular myasthenia gravis. None of the 3 tests was positive in any patient with a diagnosis other than myasthenia. However, equivocal results were obtained with edrophonium and EMG testing in some patients with myasthenia gravis and in patients with other diseases. It is concluded from this survey that antibody and edrophonium testing were equally efficient in detecting generalised myasthenia gravis. Edrophonium testing was superior in ocular myasthenia gravis. Although the yields from each test varied, all 3 tests were needed for the evaluation of some myasthenia gravis patients as each test may provide additional information.

Shifting from asset dominant to service centric delivery systems: engaging users and communities

Research and practice has observed a shift toward service-oriented approaches that depend on input from users and community as co-producers of services. Yet, in delivering public infrastructure the focus is still on assets rather than services. The contribution of external stakeholders in the co-production of public services is still limited. Using the Policy Delphi with a panel of experts, we found that although practitioners understand the need for asset management to follow the service approach, guidelines and policies still lack that service-centric perspective. Findings revealed a range of obstacles to effective service delivery, related to the sub-optimal involvement of stakeholders’, asymmetric levels of power, the lack of accountability, transparency and availability of government, and the lack of genuine consultations between government and stakeholder groups. The paper concludes by offering directions and strategies for asset managers and policymakers to support and reconnect disengaged government-citizen relations for optimal service delivery outcomes in asset management.

Conceptual and thematic analysis of policies and guidelines on engineering asset management of different states in Australia

The role of government in developing policies and guidelines for asset management is becoming increasingly important especially in view of ageing infrastructure and increasing financial risks for building infrastructure. This paper reviews policies and guidelines developed by Australian state authorities against industry developed principles. It utilizes the software program Leximancer to; a) produce conceptual visualisations of the key themes and concepts embedded within state-wide policies and guidelines, and b) systematically compare the differing asset management foci between states. The analyses reveal mixed results in terms of policy priorities and guidelines for managing assets at a strategic level across states. This paper outlines a rigorous analytical methodology to inform specific policy changes.

Asset allocation policy, returns and expenses of superannuation funds : recent evidence based on default options

We examine the asset allocation, returns, and expenses of superannuation funds whose assets are mainly invested in default investment options between 2004 and 2012. A majority of these funds fail to earn returns commensurate with their strategic asset allocation policy. It appears that much of the variation of returns between the funds might be a result of their engaging in significant active management of assets. Our results indicate that returns from active management are negatively related to expenses. We also find strong evidence of economies of scale existing in these superannuation funds across different size categories.

BIM : enabling sustainability and asset management through knowledge management

Building Information Modeling (BIM) is the use of virtual building information models to develop building design solutions and design documentation and to analyse construction processes. Recent advances in IT have enabled advanced knowledge management, which in turn facilitates sustainability and improves asset management in the civil construction industry. There are several important qualifiers and some disadvantages of the current suite of technologies. This paper outlines the benefits, enablers, and barriers associated with BIM and makes suggestions about how these issues may be addressed. The paper highlights the advantages of BIM, particularly the increased utility and speed, enhanced fault finding in all construction phases, and enhanced collaborations and visualisation of data. The paper additionally identifies a range of issues concerning the implementation of BIM as follows: IP, liability, risks, and contracts and the authenticity of users. Implementing BIM requires investment in new technology, skills training, and development of new ways of collaboration and Trade Practices concerns. However, when these challenges are overcome, BIM as a new information technology promises a new level of collaborative engineering knowledge management, designed to facilitate sustainability and asset management issues in design, construction, asset management practices, and eventually decommissioning for the civil engineering industry.

System level tests of transformer differential protection using an IEC 61850 process bus

The IEC 61850 family of standards for substation communication systems were released in the early 2000s, and include IEC 61850-8-1 and IEC 61850-9-2 that enable Ethernet to be used for process-level connections between transmission substation switchyards and control rooms. This paper presents an investigation of process bus protection performance, as the in-service behavior of multi-function process buses is largely unknown. An experimental approach was adopted that used a Real Time Digital Simulator and 'live' substation automation devices. The effect of sampling synchronization error and network traffic on transformer differential protection performance was assessed and compared to conventional hard-wired connections. Ethernet was used for all sampled value measurements, circuit breaker tripping, transformer tap-changer position reports and Precision Time Protocol synchronization of sampled value merging unit sampling. Test results showed that the protection relay under investigation operated correctly with process bus network traffic approaching 100% capacity. The protection system was not adversely affected by synchronizing errors significantly larger than the standards permit, suggesting these requirements may be overly conservative. This 'closed loop' approach, using substation automation hardware, validated the operation of protection relays under extreme conditions. Digital connections using a single shared Ethernet network outperformed conventional hard-wired solutions.

Stakeholder engagement and asset management : a case study of the Gold Coast airport, Queensland

One of the fastest growing industries – aviation – faces serious and compounding challenges in maintaining healthy relationships with community stakeholders. One area in aviation creating community conflict is noise pollution. However, current understandings of the factors that affect noise annoyance of the community are poorly conceptualized. More importantly, the way community needs and expectations could be incorporated in airport governance has been inadequately framed to address the issue of aircraft noise. This paper proposes the util-ity of adopting an integrated strategic asset management (ISAM) framework [1] to explore the dynamic nature of relationships between and airport and its surrounding area. The case of the Gold Coast Airport (OOL) operator and community stakeholders is used. This paper begins with an overview of the ISAM framework in the context of airport governance and sustainable development – as a way to find a balance between economic opportunities and societal concerns through stakeholder engagement. Next, an exploratory case study is adopted as a method to explore the noise-related complaints, complainants, and possible causes. Fol-lowing this, the paper reviews three approaches to community stakeholder engagement in Australia, Japan, and UK and discusses their implications in the con-text of OOL. The paper concludes with a contention that airport governance is likely to be much more effective with the adoption of ISAM framework than without it.

Towards an integrated maturity model of asset management capabilities

Asset service organisations often recognize asset management as a core competence to deliver benefits to their business. But how do organizations know whether their asset management processes are adequate? Asset management maturity models, which combine best practices and competencies, provide a useful approach to test the capacity of organisations to manage their assets. Asset management frameworks are required to meet the dynamic challenges of managing assets in contemporary society. Although existing models are subject to wide variations in their implementation and sophistication, they also display a distinct weakness in that they tend to focus primarily on the operational and technical level and neglect the levels of strategy, policy and governance as well as the social and human resources – the people elements. Moreover, asset management maturity models have to respond to the external environmental factors, including such as climate change and sustainability, stakeholders and community demand management. Drawing on five dimensions of effective asset management – spatial, temporal, organisational, statistical, and evaluation – as identified by Amadi Echendu et al. [1], this paper carries out a comprehensive comparative analysis of six existing maturity models to identify the gaps in key process areas. Results suggest incorporating these into an integrated approach to assess the maturity of asset-intensive organizations. It is contended that the adoption of an integrated asset management maturity model will enhance effective and efficient delivery of services.

Double strap joint tests to determine the bond characteristics between CFRP and steel plates

Advanced composite materials offer remarkable potential in the upgrade of civil engineering structures. The evolution of CFRP (carbon fibre reinforced polymer) technologies and their versatility for applications in civil constructions require comprehensive and reliable codes of practice. Guidelines are available on the rehabilitation and retrofit of concrete structures with advanced composite materials. However, there is a need to develop appropriate design guidelines for CFRP strengthened steel structures. It is important to understand the bond characteristics between CFRP and steel plates. This paper describes a series of double strap shear tests loaded in tension to investigate the bond between CFRP sheets and steel plates. Both normal modulus (240 GPa) and high modulus (640 GPa) CFRPs were used in the test program. Strain gauges were mounted to capture the strain distribution along the CFRP length. Different failure modes were observed for joints with normal modulus CFRP and those with high modulus CFRP. The strain distribution along the CFRP length is similar for the two cases. A shorter effective bond length was obtained for joints with high modulus CFRP whereas larger ultimate load carrying capacity can be achieved for joints with normal modulus CFRP when the bond length is long enough.

The impact of blur, illumination and distracters on tests related to driving performance

This thesis investigated a range of factors underlying the impact of uncorrected refractive errors on laboratory-based tests related to driving. Results showed that refractive blur had a pronounced effect on recognition of briefly presented targets, particularly under low light conditions. Blur, in combination with audio distracters, also slowed a participant's reactions to road hazards in video presentations. This suggests that recognition of suddenly appearing road hazards might be slowed in the presence of refractive blur, particularly under conditions of distraction. These findings highlight the importance of correcting even small refractive errors for driving, particularly at night.