Bayesian inference of traffic volumes based on Bluetooth data

The study of the relationship between macroscopic traffic parameters, such as flow, speed and travel time, is essential to the understanding of the behaviour of freeway and arterial roads. However, the temporal dynamics of these parameters are difficult to model, especially for arterial roads, where the process of traffic change is driven by a variety of variables. The introduction of the Bluetooth technology into the transportation area has proven exceptionally useful for monitoring vehicular traffic, as it allows reliable estimation of travel times and traffic demands. In this work, we propose an approach based on Bayesian networks for analyzing and predicting the complex dynamics of flow or volume, based on travel time observations from Bluetooth sensors. The spatio-temporal relationship between volume and travel time is captured through a first-order transition model, and a univariate Gaussian sensor model. The two models are trained and tested on travel time and volume data, from an arterial link, collected over a period of six days. To reduce the computational costs of the inference tasks, volume is converted into a discrete variable. The discretization process is carried out through a Self-Organizing Map. Preliminary results show that a simple Bayesian network can effectively estimate and predict the complex temporal dynamics of arterial volumes from the travel time data. Not only is the model well suited to produce posterior distributions over single past, current and future states; but it also allows computing the estimations of joint distributions, over sequences of states. Furthermore, the Bayesian network can achieve excellent prediction, even when the stream of travel time observation is partially incomplete.

How accurate is the identification of serious traffic injuries by Police? The concordance between Police and hospital reported traffic injuries

Police reported crash data are the primary source of crash information in most jurisdictions. However, the definition of serious injury within police-reported data is not consistent across jurisdictions and may not be accurate. With the Australian National Road Safety Strategy targeting the reduction of serious injuries, there is a greater need to assess the accuracy of the methods used to identify these injuries. A possible source of more accurate information relating to injury severity is hospital data. While other studies have compared police and hospital data to highlight the under-reporting in police-reported data, little attention has been given to the accuracy of the methods used by police to identify serious injuries. The current study aimed to assess how accurate the identification of serious injuries is in police-reported crash data, by comparing the profiles of transport-related injuries in the Queensland Road Crash Database with an aligned sample of data from the Queensland Hospital Admitted Patients Data Collection. Results showed that, while a similar number of traffic injuries were recorded in both data sets, the profile of these injuries was different based on gender, age, location, and road user. The results suggest that the ‘hospitalisation’ severity category used by police may not reflect true hospitalisations in all cases. Further, it highlights the wide variety of severity levels within hospitalised cases that are not captured by the current police-reported definitions. While a data linkage study is required to confirm these results, they highlight that a reliance on police-reported serious traffic injury data alone could result in inaccurate estimates of the impact and cost of crashes and lead to a misallocation of valuable resources.

Short-term traffic volume forecasting : a k-nearest neighbor approach enhanced by constrained linearly sewing principle component algorithm

To enhance the performance of the k-nearest neighbors approach in forecasting short-term traffic volume, this paper proposed and tested a two-step approach with the ability of forecasting multiple steps. In selecting k-nearest neighbors, a time constraint window is introduced, and then local minima of the distances between the state vectors are ranked to avoid overlappings among candidates. Moreover, to control extreme values’ undesirable impact, a novel algorithm with attractive analytical features is developed based on the principle component. The enhanced KNN method has been evaluated using the field data, and our comparison analysis shows that it outperformed the competing algorithms in most cases.

"What's the problem?" One teacher's response to conflict in an early childhood classroom

Scholars in Context: Prospects and Transitions is an edited collection of papers from Face to Face, the 1996 University of Queensland Graduate School of Education Postgraduate Conference. It presents current research undertaken in one of Australia's largest and leading centres for postgraduate research in education. The book is divided into three sections: classrooms through different lenses, in which a variety of classroom related issues are addressed through a range of frameworks; the big picture: global issues, which provides national and international perspectives on policy and cultural issues in a range of education sectors; and framing the individual: perspectives and insights, which includes different strands of research into individuals' development in the context of families and schools. Scholars in Context: Prospects and Transitions demonstrates how current researchers maintain a commitment to innovation and rigour, despite the current uncertainties that bedevil higher education. The work presented here makes a significant contribution to many fields of education research. The range of issues this collection addresses, the variety of theoretical and analytical perspectives adopted, and the scholarship evidenced in each contribution, make this text a valuable compendium of very recent work in education research.

Cross-layer design for traffic management in wireless networked control systems

Wireless networked control systems (WNCSs) have been increasingly deployed in industrial applications. As they require timely data packet transmissions, it is difficult to make efficient use of the limited channel resources, particularly in contention based wireless networks in the layered network architecture. Aiming to maintain the WNCSs under critical real-time traffic condition at which the WNCSs marginally meet the real-time requirements, a cross-layer design (CLD) approach is presented in this paper to adaptively adjust the control period to achieve improved channel utilization while still maintaining effective and timely packet transmissions. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is demonstrated through simulation studies.

Context-specific stressors, work-related social support and work-family conflict : a mediation study

Understanding the antecedents of work-family conflict is important as it allows organisations to effectively engage in work design for professional employees. This study examines the impact of sources of social support as antecedents of work-family conflict. The hypotheses were tests using Partial Least Squares modelling on a sample of 366 professional employees. The path model showed that context-specific stressors impacted positively on job demand, which led to higher levels of work-family conflict. Contrary to our expectation, non-work related social support did not have any statistical relationship with job demand and work-family conflict. In addition, individuals experiencing high job demands were found to obtain more social support from both work and non-work-related sources. Individuals with more work-related social support were less likely to have less work-family conflict. Surprisingly, non-work social support sources had no statistically significant relationship with work-family conflict.

Analysis of traffic injury severity in Dhaka, Bangladesh

This research identifies roadway, traffic, and environmental factors that influence the injury severity of road traffic crashes in Dhaka. Dhaka provides a rather unusual driving risk environment to study, since virtually anyone can obtain a drivers’ license and very little traffic enforcement and fines are given when drivers violate traffic rules. To examine this city with presumed heightened crash severity risk, police reported crash data from 2007 to 2011 containing about 2714 road traffic crashes were collected. The injury severity of traffic crashes—recorded as either fatal, serious injury, or property damage only—were modeled using an ordered Probit model. Significant factors increasing the probability of fatal injuries include crashes along highways (65%), absence of a road divider (80%), crashes during night time (54%), and vehicle-pedestrian collisions (367%); whereas two-way traffic configuration (21%), and traffic police controlled schemes (41%) decrease the probability of fatalities. Both similarities and differences of the findings between crash risk in Dhaka and developed countries are discussed in policy relevant terms.

Mathematical relationships for metal build-up on urban road surfaces based on traffic and land use characteristics

The study investigated the influence of traffic and land use parameters on metal build-up on urban road surfaces. Mathematical relationships were developed to predict metals originating from fuel combustion and vehicle wear. The analysis undertaken found that nickel and chromium originate from exhaust emissions, lead, copper and zinc from vehicle wear, cadmium from both exhaust and wear and manganese from geogenic sources. Land use does not demonstrate a clear pattern in relation to the metal build-up process, though its inherent characteristics such as traffic activities exert influence. The equation derived for fuel related metal load has high cross-validated coefficient of determination (Q2) and low Standard Error of Cross-Validation (SECV) values indicates that the model is reliable, while the equation derived for wear-related metal load has low Q2 and high SECV values suggesting its use only in preliminary investigations. Relative Prediction Error values for both equations are considered to be well within the error limits for a complex system such as an urban road surface. These equations will be beneficial for developing reliable stormwater treatment strategies in urban areas which specifically focus on mitigation of metal pollution.

A framework for conceptualising traffic safety culture

Traffic safety culture is a relatively new concept which has recently gained attention in the field of traffic safety. There is currently little known regarding the nature of the concept, nor how it should be defined. Preliminary definitions have tended to focus on specific road safety problems and the anticipated effect of a strong traffic safety culture. The literature to date has tended to emphasise how traffic safety culture might be created or shaped. However, without a better understanding of the nature and structure of traffic safety culture, discussions regarding changes to traffic safety culture are restricted. An examination of different conceptualisations and definitions of organisational safety culture provides a preliminary theoretical framework for traffic safety culture. Two high risk driving behaviours within the Australian context are compared to illustrate how key factors within this framework can be used to understand and improve road safety outcomes.

Analysis of temporary traffic control cost items in transportation construction bidding process

Temporary Traffic Control Plans (TCP’s), which provide construction phasing to maintain traffic during construction operations, are integral component of highway construction project design. Using the initial design, designers develop estimated quantities for the required TCP devices that become the basis for bids submitted by highway contractors. However, actual as-built quantities are often significantly different from the engineer’s original estimate. The total cost of TCP phasing on highway construction projects amounts to 6–10% of the total construction cost. Variations between engineer estimated quantities and final quantities contribute to reduced cost control, increased chances of cost related litigations, and bid rankings and selection. Statistical analyses of over 2000 highway construction projects were performed to determine the sources of variation, which later were used as the basis of development for an automated-hybrid prediction model that uses multiple regressions and heuristic rules to provide accurate TCP quantities and costs. The predictive accuracy of the model developed was demonstrated through several case studies.

Urban traffic state estimation: Fusing point and zone based data

Loop detectors are the oldest and widely used traffic data source. On urban arterials, they are mainly installed for signal control. Recently state of the art Bluetooth MAC Scanners (BMS) has significantly captured the interest of stakeholders for exploiting it for area wide traffic monitoring. Loop detectors provide flow- a fundamental traffic parameter; whereas BMS provides individual vehicle travel time between BMS stations. Hence, these two data sources complement each other, and if integrated should increase the accuracy and reliability of the traffic state estimation. This paper proposed a model that integrates loops and BMS data for seamless travel time and density estimation for urban signalised network. The proposed model is validated using both real and simulated data and the results indicate that the accuracy of the proposed model is over 90%.

Optimising offsets and bandwidths in vehicle traffic networks

Bandwidths and offsets are important components in vehicle traffic control strategies. This article proposes new methods for quantifying and selecting them. Bandwidth is the amount of green time available for vehicles to travel through adjacent intersections without the requirement to stop at the second traffic light. The offset is the difference between the starting-time of ``green'' periods at two adjacent intersections, along a given route. The core ideas in this article were developed during the 2013 Maths and Industry Study Group in Brisbane, Australia. Analytical expressions for computing bandwidth, as a function of offset, are developed. An optimisation model, for selecting offsets across an arterial, is proposed. Arterial roads were focussed upon, as bandwidth and offset have a greater impact on these types of road as opposed to a full traffic network. A generic optimisation-simulation approach is also proposed to refine an initial starting solution, according to a specified metric. A metric that reflects the number of stops, and the distance between stops, is proposed to explicitly reduce the dissatisfaction of road users, and to implicitly reduce fuel consumption and emissions. Conceptually the optimisation-simulation approach is superior as it handles real-life complexities and is a global optimisation approach. The models and equations in this article can be used in road planning and traffic control.

Conflicting notions of risk : the chasm of conflict between institutions and the public

The trust and credibility gap between institutional regulators and the public is based on fundamental social and cultural differences related to power and authority. It is also associated with the 'distance' of a bureaucracies from those whom they serve. The nature of public concern about risk may be investigated by considering specific cognitive decision making 'rules' such as 'familiarity' of a hazard or 'voluntariness' of exposure. A more complete appreciation of the 'how' and 'why' of public response to danger from industrial hazards can be gained by appreciating these 'rules' within the broader context of mis-communication between 'elite' regulators and a highly diverse public. If the results of risk assessments are expressed in technical terms alone, it is unlikely that any real communication will occur. Further, if issues related to the 'remote' nature of much institutional decision making are not addressed, closure of the 'gap' may be difficult to bring about.

Residential balconies with road traffic noise : a combined source image and radiosity model

Several significant studies have been made in recent decades toward understanding road traffic noise and its effects on residential balconies. These previous studies have used a variety of techniques such as theoretical models, scale models and measurements on real balconies. The studies have considered either road traffic noise levels within the balcony space or inside an adjacent habitable room or both. Previous theoretical models have used, for example, simplified specular reflection calculations, boundary element methods (BEM), adaptations of CoRTN or the use of Sabine Theory. This paper presents an alternative theoretical model to predict the effects of road traffic noise spatially within the balcony space. The model includes a specular reflection component by calculating up to 10 orders of source images. To account for diffusion effects, a two compartment radiosity component is utilised. The first radiosity compartment is the urban street, represented as a street with building facades on either side. The second radiosity compartment is the balcony space. The model is designed to calculate the predicted road traffic noise levels within the balcony space and is capable of establishing the effect of changing street and balcony geometries. Screening attenuation algorithms are included to determine the effects of solid balcony parapets and balcony ceiling shields.

Designing and evaluating an online role play in conflict management

Purpose This paper aims to identify, through a literature review, key issues regarding how online role plays can be designed and to apply them when designing a role play on conflict management. Design/methodology/approach By drawing on the key issues identified in the literature review, a role play on conflict management was designed and evaluated. Data were collected by developing a survey that focused on perceived learning, participation and satisfaction. Findings Overall, a majority of the students felt that they learned and participated in the role play. The most positive finding was that the students were satisfied with their role play experience. Research limitations/implications Researchers are urged to further develop the dimensions and measures of online role play success. The measures that were developed for evaluating perceived learning, participation and satisfaction with role plays can be further developed and tested. It is suggested that the effects on learning need to be further explored. Practical implications It is suggested that teachers take the identified key issues of online role play design into account. An important challenge seems to be to encourage students to reflect and do additional reading and research in relation with online role plays. Originality/value Online collaboration is commonly argued as beneficial from an e-learning perspective. However, a challenge for research and practice is to learn how collaborative e-learning activities may be developed. This paper contributes by focusing on how online role plays can be designed and evaluated.