Time course of temperature effects on cardiovascular mortality in Brisbane, Australia

Objective To quantify the lagged effects of mean temperature on deaths from cardiovascular diseases in Brisbane, Australia. Design Polynomial distributed lag models were used to assess the percentage increase in mortality up to 30 days associated with an increase (or decrease) of 1°C above (or below) the threshold temperature. Setting Brisbane, Australia. Patients 22 805 cardiovascular deaths registered between 1996 and 2004. Main outcome measures Deaths from cardiovascular diseases. Results The results show a longer lagged effect in cold days and a shorter lagged effect in hot days. For the hot effect, a statistically significant association was observed only for lag 0–1 days. The percentage increase in mortality was found to be 3.7% (95% CI 0.4% to 7.1%) for people aged ≥65 years and 3.5% (95% CI 0.4% to 6.7%) for all ages associated with an increase of 1°C above the threshold temperature of 24°C. For the cold effect, a significant effect of temperature was found for 10–15 lag days. The percentage estimates for older people and all ages were 3.1% (95% CI 0.7% to 5.7%) and 2.8% (95% CI 0.5% to 5.1%), respectively, with a decrease of 1°C below the threshold temperature of 24°C. Conclusions The lagged effects lasted longer for cold temperatures but were apparently shorter for hot temperatures. There was no substantial difference in the lag effect of temperature on mortality between all ages and those aged ≥65 years in Brisbane, Australia.

A framework for integrating disadvantaged analysis into transportation planning models

This research paper aims to develop a method to explore the travel behaviour differences between disadvantaged and non-disadvantaged populations. It also aims to develop a modelling approach or a framework to integrate disadvantage analysis into transportation planning models (TPMs). The methodology employed identifies significantly disadvantaged groups through a cluster analysis and the paper presents a disadvantage-integrated TPM. This model could be useful in determining areas with concentrated disadvantaged population and also developing and formulating relevant disadvantage sensitive policies. (a) For the covering entry of this conference, please see ITRD abstract no. E214666.

Probability distributed time delays: integrating spatial effects into temporal models

Background In order to provide insights into the complex biochemical processes inside a cell, modelling approaches must find a balance between achieving an adequate representation of the physical phenomena and keeping the associated computational cost within reasonable limits. This issue is particularly stressed when spatial inhomogeneities have a significant effect on system's behaviour. In such cases, a spatially-resolved stochastic method can better portray the biological reality, but the corresponding computer simulations can in turn be prohibitively expensive. Results We present a method that incorporates spatial information by means of tailored, probability distributed time-delays. These distributions can be directly obtained by single in silico or a suitable set of in vitro experiments and are subsequently fed into a delay stochastic simulation algorithm (DSSA), achieving a good compromise between computational costs and a much more accurate representation of spatial processes such as molecular diffusion and translocation between cell compartments. Additionally, we present a novel alternative approach based on delay differential equations (DDE) that can be used in scenarios of high molecular concentrations and low noise propagation. Conclusions Our proposed methodologies accurately capture and incorporate certain spatial processes into temporal stochastic and deterministic simulations, increasing their accuracy at low computational costs. This is of particular importance given that time spans of cellular processes are generally larger (possibly by several orders of magnitude) than those achievable by current spatially-resolved stochastic simulators. Hence, our methodology allows users to explore cellular scenarios under the effects of diffusion and stochasticity in time spans that were, until now, simply unfeasible. Our methodologies are supported by theoretical considerations on the different modelling regimes, i.e. spatial vs. delay-temporal, as indicated by the corresponding Master Equations and presented elsewhere.

Four models of the creative industries

Les activités et industries culturelles sont aujourd’hui englobées dans une nouvelle approche, celle d’industries créatives. Dans ce contexte, les interrogations sur les contributions de la culture au développement économique peuvent être repensées de manière élargie. La contribution examine les différentes réponses possibles à cette question, et quatre modèles sont ainsi distingués: l’approche du bien être; l’approche concurrentielle; l’approche de la croissance; l’approche de l’innovation. A chacun de ces modèles correspond une interprétation du lien entre activités créatives et économie. Ce sont ces interprétations dont la pertinence est appréciée à l’aide de données statistiques simples.

Bond–slip models for double strap joints strengthened by CFRP

This paper presents the results of a series of tension tests on CFRP bonded steel plate double strap joints. The main aim of this research is to provide detailed understanding of bond characteristics using experimental and numerical analysis of strengthened double strap joints under tension. A parametric study has been performed by numerical modelling with the variables of CFRP bond lengths, adhesive maximum strain and adhesive layer thicknesses. Finally, bond-slip models are proposed for three different types of adhesives within the range of the parametric study.

Correlations between designability and various structural characteristics of protein lattice models

Using six kinds of lattice types (4×4 ,5×5 , and6×6 square lattices;3×3×3 cubic lattice; and2+3+4+3+2 and4+5+6+5+4 triangular lattices), three different size alphabets (HP ,HNUP , and 20 letters), and two energy functions, the designability of proteinstructures is calculated based on random samplings of structures and common biased sampling (CBS) of proteinsequence space. Then three quantities stability (average energy gap),foldability, and partnum of the structure, which are defined to elucidate the designability, are calculated. The authors find that whatever the type of lattice, alphabet size, and energy function used, there will be an emergence of highly designable (preferred) structure. For all cases considered, the local interactions reduce degeneracy and make the designability higher. The designability is sensitive to the lattice type, alphabet size, energy function, and sampling method of the sequence space. Compared with the random sampling method, both the CBS and the Metropolis Monte Carlo sampling methods make the designability higher. The correlation coefficients between the designability, stability, and foldability are mostly larger than 0.5, which demonstrate that they have strong correlation relationship. But the correlation relationship between the designability and the partnum is not so strong because the partnum is independent of the energy. The results are useful in practical use of the designability principle, such as to predict the proteintertiary structure.