Investigating the link between carbon dioxide emissions and transport-related social exclusion in rural Northern Ireland

Carbon dioxide (CO2) is considered the most harmful of the greenhouse gases. Despite policy efforts, transport is the only sector experiencing an increase in the level of CO2 emissions and thereby possesses a major threat to sustainable development. In contrast, a reduced level of mobility has been associated with an increasing risk of being socially excluded. However, despite being the two key elements in transport policy, little effort has so far been made to investigate the links between CO2 emissions and social exclusion. This research contributes to this gap by analysing data from 157 weekly activity-travel diaries collected in rural Northern Ireland. CO2 emission levels were calculated using average speed models for different modes of transport. Regression analyses were then conducted to identify the socio-spatial patterns associated with these CO2 emissions, mode choice behaviour, and patterns of participation in activities. This research found that despite emitting a higher level of carbon dioxide, groups in rural areas possess the risk of being socially excluded due to their higher levels of mobility.

‘Only a pawn in their game’ : crime, risk and politics in the case of Robert Fardon

In 2003 Robert Fardon was the first prisoner to be detained under the Dangerous Prisoners (Sexual Offenders) Act 2003 (Qld), the first of the new generation preventive detention laws enacted in Australia and directed at keeping sex offenders in prison or under supervision beyond the expiry of their sentences where a court decides, on the basis of psychiatric assessments, that unconditional release would create an unacceptable risk to the community. A careful examination of Fardon’s case shows the extent to which the administration of the regime was from the outset governed by politics and political calculation rather than the logic of risk management and community protection. In 2003 Robert Fardon was the first person detained under the Dangerous Prisoners (Sexual Offenders) Act 2003 (Qld) (hereafter DPSOA), a newly enacted Queensland law aimed at the preventive detention of sex offenders. It was the first of a new generation of such laws introduced in Australia, now also in force in NSW, Western Australia and Victoria. The laws have been widely criticized by lawyers, academics and others (Keyzer and McSherry 2009; Edgely 2007). In this article I want to focus on the details of how the Queensland law was administered in Fardon’s case, he being perhaps the most well-known prisoner detained under such laws and certainly the longest held. It will show, I hope, that seemingly abstract rule of law principles invoked by other critics are not simply abstract: they afford a crucial practical safeguard against the corruption of criminal justice in which the ends both of community protection and of justice give way to opportunistic exploitation of ‘the mythic resonance of crime and punishment for electoral purposes’ (Scheingold 1998: 888).

Risk factors for delayed healing in venous leg ulcers : a review of the literature

Background Chronic leg ulcers, remaining unhealed after 4–6 weeks, affect 1-3% of the population, with treatment costly and health service resource intensive. Venous disease contributes to approximately 70% of all chronic leg ulcers and these ulcers are often associated with pain, reduced mobility and a decreased quality of life. Despite evidence-based care, 30% of these ulcers are unlikely to heal within a 24-week period and therefore the recognition and identification of risk factors for delayed healing of venous leg ulcers would be beneficial. Aim To review the available evidence on risk factors for delayed healing of venous leg ulcers. Methods: A review of the literature in regard to risk factors for delayed healing in venous leg ulcers was conducted from January 2000 to December 2013. Evidence was sourced through searches of relevant databases and websites for resources addressing risk factors for delayed healing in venous leg ulcers specifically. Results Twenty-seven studies, of mostly low-level evidence (Level III and IV), identified risk factors associated with delayed healing. Risk factors that were consistently identified included: larger ulcer area, longer ulcer duration, a previous history of ulceration, venous abnormalities and lack of high compression. Additional potential predictors with inconsistent or varying evidence to support their influence on delayed healing of venous leg ulcers included decreased mobility and/or ankle range of movement, poor nutrition and increased age. Discussion Findings from this review indicate that a number of physiological risk factors are asso- ciated with delayed healing in venous leg ulcers and that social and/or psychological risk factors should also be considered and examined further. Conclusion The findings from this review can assist health professionals to identify prognostic indicators or risk factors significantly associated with delayed healing in venous leg ulcers. This will facilitate realistic outcome planning and inform implementation of appropriate early strategies to promote healing.

A stakeholder process evaluation of a social marketing walking intervention targeting children

One quarter of Australian children are overweight or obese (ABS, 2010), putting them at increased risk of physical and psychological health problems (Reilly et al., 2003). Overweight and obesity in childhood tends to persist into adulthood and is associated with premature death and morbidity (Reilly & Kelly, 2011). Increases in Australian children’s weight have coincided with declines in active transportation, such as walking, to school (Salmon et al., 2005). To address this problem, the Victorian Health Promotion Foundation (VicHealth), which is an independent statutory authority which advises government and contributes to promoting good health in Victoria (VicHealth, 2014), developed the Walk to School program. Walk to School aims to encourage primary school children in Victoria to walk to and from school more often. Walking to school is a low cost and effective means of reducing excess weight (Rosenberg et al., 2006) that can be easily integrated into daily routine (Brophy et al., 2011). The purpose of this paper is to present the results of the stakeholder process evaluation of Walk to School 2013, which forms part of a broader outcome evaluation that is currently in field. Although there is an emphasis on outcome evaluation of programs, process evaluation can be equally important in determining program success (Saunders et al., 2005). Further, process evaluation to assess program delivery and utilization is explicitly recommended by two social marketing frameworks (see Lefebvre et al., 1988; Walsh et al., 1993).

Psychological health and the risk of diabetes mellitus in Australian women: A 21-year prospective study

Background Symptoms of depression can be recurrent or limited to one episode. This study discusses the prospective association between psychological health, measured as change in depression symptoms, and the risk of diabetes mellitus in Australian women. Methods Data obtained from the Mater-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy. Depression was measured using the Delusions-Symptoms: States Inventory. To examine possible transitions over time, depression was grouped into four categories and assessed at different phases over the 21-year period. Multiple logistic regression models and sensitivity analysis to assess the robustness of our analytical strategy were performed. Results Three hundred and one women reported diabetes 21 years after the index pregnancy. Almost one-third of the women who reported depression symptoms continued to report these at a subsequent follow-up (FU) phase. About 1 in 20 women who had not reported depression symptoms at the 5-year FU did so at the subsequent 14-year FU. In prospective analyses, we did not find a significant association between diabetes and negative change (not depressed to depressed, at subsequent phase); however, for women with positive history of symptoms of depression and women with persistent symptoms, there was a 1.97-fold (95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.14–3.40) to 2.23-fold (95% CI: 1.09–4.57) greater risk of diabetes. Conclusions Our study suggests that an increased risk of diabetes is significantly associated with persistent depression symptoms. It highlights the importance of recognizing depression symptoms in terms of women's psychological wellbeing and thus provides a basis for targeting those most at risk.

Considerations for a social and geographical framework for agent-based epidemics

Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is of crucial importance, in contexts such as estimating load on medical services to risk assessment and intervention policies against large-scale epidemic outbreaks. However, most of the information is available after the spread itself, and preemptive assessment is far from trivial. Here, we investigate the use of agent-based simulations to model such outbreaks in a stylised urban environment. For most diseases, infection of a new individual may occur from casual contact in crowds as well as from repeated interactions with social partners such as work colleagues or family members. Our model therefore accounts for these two phenomena.Presented in this paper is the initial framework for such a model, detailing implementation of geographical features and generation of social structures. Preliminary results are a promising step towards large-scale simulations and evaluation of potential intervention policies.

A parallel approach to social network generation and agent-based epidemic simulation

Understanding the dynamics of disease spread is essential in contexts such as estimating load on medical services, as well as risk assessment and interven- tion policies against large-scale epidemic outbreaks. However, most of the information is available after the outbreak itself, and preemptive assessment is far from trivial. Here, we report on an agent-based model developed to investigate such epidemic events in a stylised urban environment. For most diseases, infection of a new individual may occur from casual contact in crowds as well as from repeated interactions with social partners such as work colleagues or family members. Our model therefore accounts for these two phenomena. Given the scale of the system, efficient parallel computing is required. In this presentation, we focus on aspects related to paralllelisation for large networks generation and massively multi-agent simulations.

Risk factors associated with an outbreak of dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever in Hanoi, Vietnam

Dengue fever/dengue haemorrhagic fever (DF/DHF) appears to be emerging in Hanoi in recent years. A case-control study was performed to investigate risk factors for the development of DF/DHF in Hanoi. A total of 73 patients with DF/DHF and 73 control patients were included in the study. The risk factor analysis indicated that living in rented housing, living near uncovered sewers, and living in a house discharging sewage directly into to ponds were all significantly associated with DF/DHF. People living in rented houses were 2·2 times more at risk of DF/DHF than those living in their own homes [adjusted odds ratio (aOR) 2·2, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1·1–4·6]. People living in an unhygienic house, or in a house discharging sewage directly to the ponds were 3·4 times and 4·3 times, respectively, more likely to be associated with DF/DHF (aOR 3·4, 95% CI 1–11·7; aOR 4·3, 95% CI 1·1–16·9). These results contribute to the understanding of the dynamics of dengue transmission in Hanoi, which is needed to implement dengue prevention and control programmes effectively and efficiently.

Religion, spirituality, and mental health and social behaviour in young adulthood: A longitudinal study

Background The concept spirituality appears to be gaining increasing attention for its potential relationship to mental health, despite there being an absence of consensus on what spirituality is or whether it can be distinguished from religion (or religiousness) in operational terms. Spirituality is a term that is embraced within secular and non-secular contexts alike. As a consequence, spirituality as a concept encompasses forms of religiosity that are embedded in traditional religion and those that have little or no connection to traditional religious teachings. The emergence of religious/spiritual beliefs that depart from traditional religious thought represents one key feature of widespread religious change in contemporary societies. Non-traditional religious/spiritual beliefs need to be viewed within this context and thus be differentiated from traditional religious/spiritual beliefs when investigating connections between religion, spirituality, and mental health. Aims The current study seeks to compare the mental health of those whose beliefs are rooted in religious tradition with those whose beliefs deviate from traditional religious thought. The two main objectives of this study are: (1) to determine the extent to which religious background predicts endorsement of traditional and non-traditional religious/spiritual beliefs and church attendance in young adulthood, and; (2) to determine whether differential relationships exist between current religiosity, religious background, and mental health in young adulthood, and whether any observed differences are attributable to other characteristics of respondents like sociodemographic factors and health-risk behaviours. Methods Data were derived from the Mater-University of Queensland Study of Pregnancy, a longitudinal, prospective study of maternal and child health from the prenatal period to 21 years post-delivery. Religiosity was assessed among the study children in young adulthood from three items measured at the time of the 21-year follow-up. Religious background was assessed from information provided by the study mothers in earlier phases of the study. Young adult responses to items included in the Young Adult Self Report (Achenbach, 1997) were used to assess cases of anxiety/depression and externalising behaviour, and delusional ideation was assessed from their responses to the 21-item Peters et al. Delusions Inventory (PDI) (Peters & Garety, 1996). Results Belief in a spiritual or higher power other than God was found to be positively related to anxiety/depression, disturbed ideation, suspiciousness and paranormal ideation, high total PDI scores, as well as antisocial behaviour in young adulthood, regardless of gender. These associations persisted after adjustment for potential confounders. By contrast, young adults who maintain a traditional belief in God appear to be no different to those who reject this belief in regard to anxiety/depression. Belief in God was found to have no association with antisocial behaviour for males, but was observed to have a weak negative relationship with antisocial behaviour for females. This association failed to reach statistical significance however, after adjustment for other religious/spiritual and social characteristics. No associations were found between young adult belief in God and disturbed, suspicious or paranormal ideation, although a positive relationship was identified for high total PDI scores. Weekly church attendance was observed to reduce the likelihood of antisocial behaviour in young adulthood among males, but not females. Religious ideation was found to more prevalent among young adults who attend church on either a weekly or infrequent basis. No long-term effects on anxiety/depression or antisocial behaviour were evident from maternal belief in God, church attendance or religious affiliation in the young adults’ early lives. However, maternal church attendance predicted religious ideation in young adulthood. Offspring of mothers affiliated with a Pentecostal church in the prenatal period appear to have a high rate of religious ideation and high total PDI scores. Paranormal ideation in young adulthood appears to have no association with maternal religiosity in a young adult’s early life. Conclusion The findings from this study suggest that young adults who endorse non-traditional religious/spiritual beliefs are at greater risk for poorer mental health and aberrant social behaviour than those who reject these beliefs. These results suggest that a non-traditional religious/spiritual belief system involves more than mere rejection of traditional religious doctrine. This system of belief may be a marker for those who question the legitimacy of established societal norms and values, and whose thoughts, attitudes and actions reflect this position. This possibility has implications for mental health and wellbeing at both an individual and a societal level and warrants further research attention.

Inferring lung cancer risk factor patterns through joint Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis

Background: Preventing risk factor exposure is vital to reduce the high burden from lung cancer. The leading risk factor for developing lung cancer is tobacco smoking. In Australia, despite apparent success in reducing smoking prevalence, there is limited information on small area patterns and small area temporal trends. We sought to estimate spatio-temporal patterns for lung cancer risk factors using routinely collected population-based cancer data. Methods: The analysis used a Bayesian shared component spatio-temporal model, with male and female lung cancer included separately. The shared component reflected exposure to lung cancer risk factors, and was modelled over 477 statistical local areas (SLAs) and 15 years in Queensland, Australia. Analyses were also run adjusting for area-level socioeconomic disadvantage, Indigenous population composition, or remoteness. Results: Strong spatial patterns were observed in the underlying risk factor exposure for both males (median Relative Risk (RR) across SLAs compared to the Queensland average ranged from 0.48-2.00) and females (median RR range across SLAs 0.53-1.80), with high exposure observed in many remote areas. Strong temporal trends were also observed. Males showed a decrease in the underlying risk across time, while females showed an increase followed by a decrease in the final two years. These patterns were largely consistent across each SLA. The high underlying risk estimates observed among disadvantaged, remote and indigenous areas decreased after adjustment, particularly among females. Conclusion: The modelled underlying exposure appeared to reflect previous smoking prevalence, with a lag period of around 30 years, consistent with the time taken to develop lung cancer. The consistent temporal trends in lung cancer risk factors across small areas support the hypothesis that past interventions have been equally effective across the state. However, this also means that spatial inequalities have remained unaddressed, highlighting the potential for future interventions, particularly among remote areas.

The pet factor - Companion animals as a conduit for getting to know people, friendship formation and social support

BACKGROUND: While companion animals have been previously identified as a direct source of companionship and support to their owners, their role as a catalyst for friendship formation or social support networks among humans has received little attention. This study investigated the indirect role of pets as facilitators for three dimensions of social relatedness; getting to know people, friendship formation and social support networks. METHODS: A telephone survey of randomly selected residents in four cities, one in Australia (Perth; n = 704) and three in the U.S. (San Diego, n = 690; Portland, n = 634; Nashville, n = 664) was conducted. All participants were asked about getting to know people within their neighborhood. Pet owners were asked additional questions about the type/s of pet/s they owned, whether they had formed friendships as a result of their pet, and if they had received any of four different types of social support from the people they met through their pet. RESULTS: Pet owners were significantly more likely to get to know people in their neighborhood than non-pet owners (OR 1.61; 95%CI: 1.30, 1.99). When analyzed by site, this relationship was significant for Perth, San Diego and Nashville. Among pet owners, dog owners in the three U.S. cities (but not Perth) were significantly more likely than owners of other types of pets to regard people whom they met through their pet as a friend (OR 2.59; 95%CI: 1.94, 3.46). Around 40% of pet owners reported receiving one or more types of social support (i.e. emotional, informational, appraisal, instrumental) via people they met through their pet. CONCLUSION: This research suggests companion animals can be a catalyst for several dimensions of human social relationships in neighborhood settings, ranging from incidental social interaction and getting to know people, through to formation of new friendships. For many pet owners, their pets also facilitated relationships from which they derived tangible forms of social support, both of a practical and emotionally supportive nature. Given growing evidence for social isolation as a risk factor for mental health, and, conversely, friendships and social support as protective factors for individual and community well-being, pets may be an important factor in developing healthy neighborhoods.

A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: A systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND Quantification of the disease burden caused by different risks informs prevention by providing an account of health loss different to that provided by a disease-by-disease analysis. No complete revision of global disease burden caused by risk factors has been done since a comparative risk assessment in 2000, and no previous analysis has assessed changes in burden attributable to risk factors over time. METHODS We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs; sum of years lived with disability [YLD] and years of life lost [YLL]) attributable to the independent effects of 67 risk factors and clusters of risk factors for 21 regions in 1990 and 2010. We estimated exposure distributions for each year, region, sex, and age group, and relative risks per unit of exposure by systematically reviewing and synthesising published and unpublished data. We used these estimates, together with estimates of cause-specific deaths and DALYs from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010, to calculate the burden attributable to each risk factor exposure compared with the theoretical-minimum-risk exposure. We incorporated uncertainty in disease burden, relative risks, and exposures into our estimates of attributable burden. FINDINGS In 2010, the three leading risk factors for global disease burden were high blood pressure (7·0% [95% uncertainty interval 6·2-7·7] of global DALYs), tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·3% [5·5-7·0]), and alcohol use (5·5% [5·0-5·9]). In 1990, the leading risks were childhood underweight (7·9% [6·8-9·4]), household air pollution from solid fuels (HAP; 7·0% [5·6-8·3]), and tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke (6·1% [5·4-6·8]). Dietary risk factors and physical inactivity collectively accounted for 10·0% (95% UI 9·2-10·8) of global DALYs in 2010, with the most prominent dietary risks being diets low in fruits and those high in sodium. Several risks that primarily affect childhood communicable diseases, including unimproved water and sanitation and childhood micronutrient deficiencies, fell in rank between 1990 and 2010, with unimproved water and sanitation accounting for 0·9% (0·4-1·6) of global DALYs in 2010. However, in most of sub-Saharan Africa childhood underweight, HAP, and non-exclusive and discontinued breastfeeding were the leading risks in 2010, while HAP was the leading risk in south Asia. The leading risk factor in Eastern Europe, most of Latin America, and southern sub-Saharan Africa in 2010 was alcohol use; in most of Asia, North Africa and Middle East, and central Europe it was high blood pressure. Despite declines, tobacco smoking including second-hand smoke remained the leading risk in high-income north America and western Europe. High body-mass index has increased globally and it is the leading risk in Australasia and southern Latin America, and also ranks high in other high-income regions, North Africa and Middle East, and Oceania. INTERPRETATION Worldwide, the contribution of different risk factors to disease burden has changed substantially, with a shift away from risks for communicable diseases in children towards those for non-communicable diseases in adults. These changes are related to the ageing population, decreased mortality among children younger than 5 years, changes in cause-of-death composition, and changes in risk factor exposures. New evidence has led to changes in the magnitude of key risks including unimproved water and sanitation, vitamin A and zinc deficiencies, and ambient particulate matter pollution. The extent to which the epidemiological shift has occurred and what the leading risks currently are varies greatly across regions. In much of sub-Saharan Africa, the leading risks are still those associated with poverty and those that affect children.

Can social resilience inform SA/SIA for adaptive planning for climate change in vulnerable regions?

This book represents a landmark effort to probe and analyze the theory and empirics of designing water disaster management policies. It consists of seven chapters that examine, in-depth and comprehensively, issues that are central to crafting effective policies for water disaster management. The authors use historical surveys, institutional analysis, econometric investigations, empirical case studies, and conceptual-theoretical discussions to clarify and illuminate the complex policy process. The specific topics studied in this book include a review and analysis of key policy areas and research priority areas associated with water disaster management, community participation in disaster risk reduction, the economics and politics of ‘green’ flood control, probabilistic flood forecasting for flood risk management, polycentric governance and flood risk management, drought management with the aid of dynamic inter-generational preferences, and how social resilience can inform SA/SIA for adaptive planning for climate change in vulnerable areas. A unique feature of this book is its analysis of the causes and consequences of water disasters and efforts to address them successfully through policy-rich, cross-disciplinary and transnational papers. This book is designed to help enrich the sparse discourse on water disaster management policies and galvanize water professionals to craft creative solutions to tackle water disasters efficiently, equitably, and sustainably. This book should also be of considerable use to disaster management professionals, in general, and natural resource policy analysts.

Queer Youth Research/ers: A reflexive account of risk and intimacy in an ethical (mine)field

In contemporary Western societies, the years between childhood and young adulthood are commonly understood to be (trans)formative in the reflexive project of sexual self-making (Russell et al. 2012). As sexual subjects in the making, youthful bodies, desires and sexual activities are often perceived as both volatile and vulnerable, thus subjected to instruction and discipline, protection and surveillance. Accordingly, young people’s sexual proximities are closely monitored by social institutions and ‘(hetero)normalising regimes’ (Warner 1999) for any signs that may compromise the end goal of development—a ‘normal’ reproductive heterosexual monogamous adult.

Diabetes mellitus and the risk of depressive and anxiety disorders in Australian women: A longitudinal study

Background Longitudinal studies examining the risk of depressive and anxiety disorders associated with diabetes are limited. This study examined the association between diabetes and the risk of depressive and anxiety disorders in Australian women using longitudinal data. Methods Datawere froma sample of women who were part of anAustralian pregnancy and birth cohort study. Data comprised self-reported diabetes mellitus and the subsequent reporting of depressive and anxiety disorders. Mood disorders were assessed according to the Diagnostic and Statistical Manual of Mental Disorders, fourth edition, obtained from participants using Composite International Diagnostic Interview (CIDI)-Auto (WHO WMH-CIDI CAPI, version 21.1.3). Multiple regression models with adjustment for important covariates were used. Results Women with diabetes had a higher lifetime prevalence of any depressive and/or anxiety disorder than women without diabetes. About 3 in 10 women with diabetes experienced a lifetime event of any depressive disorder, while 1 in 2 women with diabetes experienced a lifetime event of any anxiety disorder. In prospective analyses, diabetes was only significantly associated with a 30-day episode of any anxiety disorder (odds ratio [OR] 1.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.09–2.15). In the case of lifetime disorders, diabetes was significantly associated with any depressive disorder (OR 1.37, 95% CI 1.03–1.84), major depressive disorder (OR 1.36, 95% CI 1.01–1.85), and posttraumatic stress disorder (OR 1.42, 95% CI 1.01–2.02). Conclusions The findings suggest that the presence of diabetes is a significant risk factor for women experiencing current anxiety disorders. However, in the case of depression, the association with diabetes only held for women who had experienced past episodes, there was no association with current depression. This suggests that the evidence is not strong enough to support a direct effect of diabetes as a cause of mood disorders.