Crash risk estimation and assessment tool

Currently in Australia, there are no decision support tools for traffic and transport engineers to assess the crash risk potential of proposed road projects at design level. A selection of equivalent tools already exists for traffic performance assessment, e.g. aaSIDRA or VISSIM. The Urban Crash Risk Assessment Tool (UCRAT) was developed for VicRoads by ARRB Group to promote methodical identification of future crash risks arising from proposed road infrastructure, where safety cannot be evaluated based on past crash history. The tool will assist practitioners with key design decisions to arrive at the safest and the most cost -optimal design options. This paper details the development and application of UCRAT software. This professional tool may be used to calculate an expected mean number of casualty crashes for an intersection, a road link or defined road network consisting of a number of such elements. The mean number of crashes provides a measure of risk associated with the proposed functional design and allows evaluation of alternative options. The tool is based on historical data for existing road infrastructure in metropolitan Melbourne and takes into account the influence of key design features, traffic volumes, road function and the speed environment. Crash prediction modelling and risk assessment approaches were combined to develop its unique algorithms. The tool has application in such projects as road access proposals associated with land use developments, public transport integration projects and new road corridor upgrade proposals.

Freeway traffic estimation in Beijing based on particle filter

Short-term traffic flow data is characterized by rapid and dramatic fluctuations. It reflects the nature of the frequent congestion in the lane, which shows a strong nonlinear feature. Traffic state estimation based on the data gained by electronic sensors is critical for much intelligent traffic management and the traffic control. In this paper, a solution to freeway traffic estimation in Beijing is proposed using a particle filter, based on macroscopic traffic flow model, which estimates both traffic density and speed.Particle filter is a nonlinear prediction method, which has obvious advantages for traffic flows prediction. However, with the increase of sampling period, the volatility of the traffic state curve will be much dramatic. Therefore, the prediction accuracy will be affected and difficulty of forecasting is raised. In this paper, particle filter model is applied to estimate the short-term traffic flow. Numerical study is conducted based on the Beijing freeway data with the sampling period of 2 min. The relatively high accuracy of the results indicates the superiority of the proposed model.

Assessment of pile driving refusal using the standard test (SPT)

The design of driven pile foundations involves an iterative process requiring an initial estimate of the refusal level to determine the depth of boreholes for subsequent analyses. Current procedures for determining borehole depths incorporate parameters typically unknown at the investigation stage. Thus, a quantifiable procedure more applicable at this preliminary stage would provide greater confidence in estimating the founding level of driven piles. This paper examines the effectiveness of the Standard Penetration Test (SPT) in directly estimating driven pile refusal levels. A number of significant correlations were obtained between SPT information and pile penetration records demonstrating the potential application of the SPT. Results indicated pile penetration was generally best described as a function of both the pile toe and cumulative shaft SPT values. The influence of the toe SPT increased when piles penetrated rock. A refusal criteria was established from the results to guide both the estimation of borehole depths and likely pile lengths during the design stage.

Investigation on parameters used in warning systems for rain-induced embankment instability

A number of instrumented laboratory-scale soil embankment slopes were subjected to artificial rainfall until they failed. The factor of safety of the slope based on real-time measurements of pore-water pressure (suction) and laboratory measured soil properties were calculated as the rainfall progressed. Based on the experiment measurements and slope stability analysis, it was observed that slope displacement measurements can be used to warn the slope failure more accurately. Further, moisture content/pore-water pressure measurements near the toe of the slope and the real-time factor of safety can also be used for prediction of rainfall-induced embankment failures with adequate accuracy.

Improving the performance of model-order selection criteria by partial-model selection search

The traditional searching method for model-order selection in linear regression is a nested full-parameters-set searching procedure over the desired orders, which we call full-model order selection. On the other hand, a method for model-selection searches for the best sub-model within each order. In this paper, we propose using the model-selection searching method for model-order selection, which we call partial-model order selection. We show by simulations that the proposed searching method gives better accuracies than the traditional one, especially for low signal-to-noise ratios over a wide range of model-order selection criteria (both information theoretic based and bootstrap-based). Also, we show that for some models the performance of the bootstrap-based criterion improves significantly by using the proposed partial-model selection searching method. Index Terms— Model order estimation, model selection, information theoretic criteria, bootstrap 1. INTRODUCTION Several model-order selection criteria can be applied to find the optimal order. Some of the more commonly used information theoretic-based procedures include Akaike’s information criterion (AIC) [1], corrected Akaike (AICc) [2], minimum description length (MDL) [3], normalized maximum likelihood (NML) [4], Hannan-Quinn criterion (HQC) [5], conditional model-order estimation (CME) [6], and the efficient detection criterion (EDC) [7]. From a practical point of view, it is difficult to decide which model order selection criterion to use. Many of them perform reasonably well when the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is high. The discrepancies in their performance, however, become more evident when the SNR is low. In those situations, the performance of the given technique is not only determined by the model structure (say a polynomial trend versus a Fourier series) but, more importantly, by the relative values of the parameters within the model. This makes the comparison between the model-order selection algorithms difficult as within the same model with a given order one could find an example for which one of the methods performs favourably well or fails [6, 8]. Our aim is to improve the performance of the model order selection criteria in cases where the SNR is low by considering a model-selection searching procedure that takes into account not only the full-model order search but also a partial model order search within the given model order. Understandably, the improvement in the performance of the model order estimation is at the expense of additional computational complexity.

Unaided stereo vision based pose estimation

This paper presents the development of a low-cost sensor platform for use in ground-based visual pose estimation and scene mapping tasks. We seek to develop a technical solution using low-cost vision hardware that allows us to accurately estimate robot position for SLAM tasks. We present results from the application of a vision based pose estimation technique to simultaneously determine camera poses and scene structure. The results are generated from a dataset gathered traversing a local road at the St Lucia Campus of the University of Queensland. We show the accuracy of the pose estimation over a 1.6km trajectory in relation to GPS ground truth.

Vision only pose estimation and scene reconstruction on airborne platforms

We aim to demonstrate unaided visual 3D pose estimation and map reconstruction using both monocular and stereo vision techniques. To date, our work has focused on collecting data from Unmanned Aerial Vehicles, which generates a number of significant issues specific to the application. Such issues include scene reconstruction degeneracy from planar data, poor structure initialisation for monocular schemes and difficult 3D reconstruction due to high feature covariance. Most modern Visual Odometry (VO) and related SLAM systems make use of a number of sensors to inform pose and map generation, including laser range-finders, radar, inertial units and vision [1]. By fusing sensor inputs, the advantages and deficiencies of each sensor type can be handled in an efficient manner. However, many of these sensors are costly and each adds to the complexity of such robotic systems. With continual advances in the abilities, small size, passivity and low cost of visual sensors along with the dense, information rich data that they provide our research focuses on the use of unaided vision to generate pose estimates and maps from robotic platforms. We propose that highly accurate (�5cm) dense 3D reconstructions of large scale environments can be obtained in addition to the localisation of the platform described in other work [2]. Using images taken from cameras, our algorithm simultaneously generates an initial visual odometry estimate and scene reconstruction from visible features, then passes this estimate to a bundle-adjustment routine to optimise the solution. From this optimised scene structure and the original images, we aim to create a detailed, textured reconstruction of the scene. By applying such techniques to a unique airborne scenario, we hope to expose new robotic applications of SLAM techniques. The ability to obtain highly accurate 3D measurements of an environment at a low cost is critical in a number of agricultural and urban monitoring situations. We focus on cameras as such sensors are small, cheap and light-weight and can therefore be deployed in smaller aerial vehicles. This, coupled with the ability of small aerial vehicles to fly near to the ground in a controlled fashion, will assist in increasing the effective resolution of the reconstructed maps.

Fixed-wing attitude estimation using temporal tracking of the horizon and optical flow

In this paper, a method has been developed for estimating pitch angle, roll angle and aircraft body rates based on horizon detection and temporal tracking using a forward-looking camera, without assistance from other sensors. Using an image processing front-end, we select several lines in an image that may or may not correspond to the true horizon. The optical flow at each candidate line is calculated, which may be used to measure the body rates of the aircraft. Using an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), the aircraft state is propagated using a motion model and a candidate horizon line is associated using a statistical test based on the optical flow measurements and the location of the horizon. Once associated, the selected horizon line, along with the associated optical flow, is used as a measurement to the EKF. To test the accuracy of the algorithm, two flights were conducted, one using a highly dynamic Uninhabited Airborne Vehicle (UAV) in clear flight conditions and the other in a human-piloted Cessna 172 in conditions where the horizon was partially obscured by terrain, haze and smoke. The UAV flight resulted in pitch and roll error standard deviations of 0.42◦ and 0.71◦ respectively when compared with a truth attitude source. The Cessna flight resulted in pitch and roll error standard deviations of 1.79◦ and 1.75◦ respectively. The benefits of selecting and tracking the horizon using a motion model and optical flow rather than naively relying on the image processing front-end is also demonstrated.

Automatic in-bucket volume estimation for dragline operations

This paper presents a method for calculating the in-bucket payload volume on a dragline for the purpose of estimating the material’s bulk density in real-time. Knowledge of the bulk density can provide instant feedback to mine planning and scheduling to improve blasting and in turn provide a more uniform bulk density across the excavation site. Furthermore costs and emissions in dragline operation, maintenance and downstream material processing can be reduced. The main challenge is to determine an accurate position and orientation of the bucket with the constraint of real-time performance. The proposed solution uses a range bearing and tilt sensor to locate and scan the bucket between the lift and dump stages of the dragline cycle. Various scanning strategies are investigated for their benefits in this real-time application. The bucket is segmented from the scene using cluster analysis while the pose of the bucket is calculated using the iterative closest point (ICP) algorithm. Payload points are segmented from the bucket by a fixed distance neighbour clustering method to preserve boundary points and exclude low density clusters introduced by overhead chains and the spreader bar. A height grid is then used to represent the payload from which the volume can be calculated by summing over the grid cells. We show volume calculated on a scaled system with an accuracy of greater than 95 per cent.

Range sensor pose estimation

This paper presents a method of recovering the 6 DoF pose (Cartesian position and angular rotation) of a range sensor mounted on a mobile platform. The method utilises point targets in a local scene and optimises over the error between their absolute position and their apparent position as observed by the range sensor. The analysis includes an investigation into the sensitivity and robustness of the method. Practical results were collected using a SICK LRS2100 mounted on a P&H electric mining shovel and present the errors in scan data relative to an independent 3D scan of the scene. A comparison to directly measuring the sensor pose is presented and shows the significant accuracy improvements in scene reconstruction using this pose estimation method.

Empirical Bayes method in the study of traffic safety via heterogeneous negative multinomial model

In the study of traffic safety, expected crash frequencies across sites are generally estimated via the negative binomial model, assuming time invariant safety. Since the time invariant safety assumption may be invalid, Hauer (1997) proposed a modified empirical Bayes (EB) method. Despite the modification, no attempts have been made to examine the generalisable form of the marginal distribution resulting from the modified EB framework. Because the hyper-parameters needed to apply the modified EB method are not readily available, an assessment is lacking on how accurately the modified EB method estimates safety in the presence of the time variant safety and regression-to-the-mean (RTM) effects. This study derives the closed form marginal distribution, and reveals that the marginal distribution in the modified EB method is equivalent to the negative multinomial (NM) distribution, which is essentially the same as the likelihood function used in the random effects Poisson model. As a result, this study shows that the gamma posterior distribution from the multivariate Poisson-gamma mixture can be estimated using the NM model or the random effects Poisson model. This study also shows that the estimation errors from the modified EB method are systematically smaller than those from the comparison group method by simultaneously accounting for the RTM and time variant safety effects. Hence, the modified EB method via the NM model is a generalisable method for estimating safety in the presence of the time variant safety and the RTM effects.

Incorporating parameter uncertainty into quantitative microbial risk assessment (QMRA)

Modern statistical models and computational methods can now incorporate uncertainty of the parameters used in Quantitative Microbial Risk Assessments (QMRA). Many QMRAs use Monte Carlo methods, but work from fixed estimates for means, variances and other parameters. We illustrate the ease of estimating all parameters contemporaneously with the risk assessment, incorporating all the parameter uncertainty arising from the experiments from which these parameters are estimated. A Bayesian approach is adopted, using Markov Chain Monte Carlo Gibbs sampling (MCMC) via the freely available software, WinBUGS. The method and its ease of implementation are illustrated by a case study that involves incorporating three disparate datasets into an MCMC framework. The probabilities of infection when the uncertainty associated with parameter estimation is incorporated into a QMRA are shown to be considerably more variable over various dose ranges than the analogous probabilities obtained when constants from the literature are simply ‘plugged’ in as is done in most QMRAs. Neglecting these sources of uncertainty may lead to erroneous decisions for public health and risk management.

Computed success rates of various carrier phase integer estimation solutions and their comparison with statistical success rates

The success rate of carrier phase ambiguity resolution (AR) is the probability that the ambiguities are successfully fixed to their correct integer values. In existing works, an exact success rate formula for integer bootstrapping estimator has been used as a sharp lower bound for the integer least squares (ILS) success rate. Rigorous computation of success rate for the more general ILS solutions has been considered difficult, because of complexity of the ILS ambiguity pull-in region and computational load of the integration of the multivariate probability density function. Contributions of this work are twofold. First, the pull-in region mathematically expressed as the vertices of a polyhedron is represented by a multi-dimensional grid, at which the cumulative probability can be integrated with the multivariate normal cumulative density function (mvncdf) available in Matlab. The bivariate case is studied where the pull-region is usually defined as a hexagon and the probability is easily obtained using mvncdf at all the grid points within the convex polygon. Second, the paper compares the computed integer rounding and integer bootstrapping success rates, lower and upper bounds of the ILS success rates to the actual ILS AR success rates obtained from a 24 h GPS data set for a 21 km baseline. The results demonstrate that the upper bound probability of the ILS AR probability given in the existing literatures agrees with the actual ILS success rate well, although the success rate computed with integer bootstrapping method is a quite sharp approximation to the actual ILS success rate. The results also show that variations or uncertainty of the unit–weight variance estimates from epoch to epoch will affect the computed success rates from different methods significantly, thus deserving more attentions in order to obtain useful success probability predictions.

Variability of input parameters related to pollutants build-up in stormwater quality modelling

The variability of input parameters is the most important source of overall model uncertainty. Therefore, an in-depth understanding of the variability is essential for uncertainty analysis of stormwater quality model outputs. This paper presents the outcomes of a research study which investigated the variability of pollutants build-up characteristics on road surfaces in residential, commercial and industrial land uses. It was found that build-up characteristics vary highly even within the same land use. Additionally, industrial land use showed relatively higher variability of maximum build-up, build-up rate and particle size distribution, whilst the commercial land use displayed a relatively higher variability of pollutant-solid ratio. Among the various build-up parameters analysed, D50 (volume-median-diameter) displayed the relatively highest variability for all three land uses.

Discovering characteristics of stochastic collections of process models

Process models in organizational collections are typically modeled by the same team and using the same conventions. As such, these models share many characteristic features like size range, type and frequency of errors. In most cases merely small samples of these collections are available due to e.g. the sensitive information they contain. Because of their sizes, these samples may not provide an accurate representation of the characteristics of the originating collection. This paper deals with the problem of constructing collections of process models, in the form of Petri nets, from small samples of a collection for accurate estimations of the characteristics of this collection. Given a small sample of process models drawn from a real-life collection, we mine a set of generation parameters that we use to generate arbitrary-large collections that feature the same characteristics of the original collection. In this way we can estimate the characteristics of the original collection on the generated collections.We extensively evaluate the quality of our technique on various sample datasets drawn from both research and industry.