Development of a computer based 1D-2D dynamic flood model. Case study of the Pagsangaan river basin in Leyte, the Philippines

Floods are among the most devastating events that affect primarily tropical, archipelagic countries such as the Philippines. With the current predictions of climate change set to include rising sea levels, intensification of typhoon strength and a general increase in the mean annual precipitation throughout the Philippines, it has become paramount to prepare for the future so that the increased risk of floods on the country does not translate into more economic and human loss. Field work and data gathering was done within the framework of an internship at the former German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) in cooperation with the Local Government Unit of Ormoc City, Leyte, The Philippines, in order to develop a dynamic computer based flood model for the basin of the Pagsangaan River. To this end, different geo-spatial analysis tools such as PCRaster and ArcGIS, hydrological analysis packages and basic engineering techniques were assessed and implemented. The aim was to develop a dynamic flood model and use the development process to determine the required data, availability and impact on the results as case study for flood early warning systems in the Philippines. The hope is that such projects can help to reduce flood risk by including the results of worst case scenario analyses and current climate change predictions into city planning for municipal development, monitoring strategies and early warning systems. The project was developed using a 1D-2D coupled model in SOBEK (Deltares Hydrological modelling software package) and was also used as a case study to analyze and understand the influence of different factors such as land use, schematization, time step size and tidal variation on the flood characteristics. Several sources of relevant satellite data were compared, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from ASTER and SRTM data, as well as satellite rainfall data from the GIOVANNI server (NASA) and field gauge data. Different methods were used in the attempt to partially calibrate and validate the model to finally simulate and study two Climate Change scenarios based on scenario A1B predictions. It was observed that large areas currently considered not prone to floods will become low flood risk (0.1-1 m water depth). Furthermore, larger sections of the floodplains upstream of the Lilo- an’s Bridge will become moderate flood risk areas (1 - 2 m water depth). The flood hazard maps created for the development of the present project will be presented to the LGU and the model will be used to create a larger set of possible flood prone areas related to rainfall intensity by GTZ’s Local Disaster Risk Management Department and to study possible improvements to the current early warning system and monitoring of the basin section belonging to Ormoc City; recommendations about further enhancement of the geo-hydro-meteorological data to improve the model’s accuracy mainly on areas of interest will also be presented at the LGU.

Applying the ecological model of behavior change to a physical activity trial in retirement communities : description of the study protocol

Objectives To describe the intervention protocol for the first multilevel ecological intervention for physical activity in retirement communities that addresses individual, interpersonal and community influences on behavior change. Design A cluster randomized controlled trial design was employed with two study arms: a physical activity intervention and an attention control successful aging condition. Setting Sixteen continuing care retirement communities in San Diego County. Participants Three hundred twenty older adults, aged 65 years and older, are being recruited to participate in the trial. In addition, peer leaders are being recruited to lead some study activities, especially to sustain the intervention after study activities ceased. Intervention Participants in the physical activity trial receive individual, interpersonal and community intervention components. The individual level components include pedometers, goal setting and individual phone counseling. The interpersonal level components include group education sessions and peer-led activities. The community level components include resource audits and enumeration, tailored walking maps, and community improvement projects. The successful aging group receives individual and group attention about successful aging topics. Measurements The main outcome is light to moderate physical activity, measured objectively by accelerometry. Other objective outcomes included physical functioning, blood pressure, physical fitness, and cognitive functioning. Self report measures include depressive symptoms and health related quality of life. Results The intervention is being delivered successfully in the communities and compliance rates are high. Conclusion Ecological Models call for interventions that address multiple levels of the model. Previous studies have not included components at each level and retirement communities provide a model environment to demonstrate how to implement such an intervention.

The development of a carrying capacity assessment model for the Australian socio-environmental context

A key aim of this research was to highlight how society's understanding of constraints to the productive capacity of its resource base is vital to its long-term survival. This was achieved through the development of an online model, the Carrying Capacity Dashboard. The Dashboard was developed to estimate how much land Australian populations require for the production of their food, textiles, timber and liquid fuel. Findings reveal that Australia's estimated carrying capacity is currently over 40 million people but longer-term and more regional analyses suggest a much smaller number. Carrying capacity assessment also indicates that optimal resource security is to be found in balancing both small and large-scale self-sufficiency.

The mouse model of Chlamydia genital tract infection: a review of infection, disease, immunity and vaccine development

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most common sexually transmitted bacterial infection worldwide. The impact of this pathogen on human reproduction has intensified research efforts to better understand chlamydial infection and pathogenesis. Whilst there are animal models available that mimic the many aspects of human chlamydial infection, the mouse is regarded as the most practical and widely used of the models. Studies in mice have greatly contributed to our understanding of the host-pathogen interaction and provided an excellent medium for evaluating vaccines. Here we explore the advantages and disadvantages of all animal models of chlamydial genital tract infection, with a focus on the murine model and what we have learnt from it so far.

A simple model for the establishment of tick-borne pathogens of Ixodes scapularis : a global sensitivity analysis of R0

The basic reproduction number of a pathogen, R 0, determines whether a pathogen will spread (R0>1R 0>1), when introduced into a fully susceptible population or fade out (R0<1R 0<1), because infected hosts do not, on average, replace themselves. In this paper we develop a simple mechanistic model for the basic reproduction number for a group of tick-borne pathogens that wholly, or almost wholly, depend on horizontal transmission to and from vertebrate hosts. This group includes the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi, and the causative agent of human babesiosis, Babesia microti, for which transmission between co-feeding ticks and vertical transmission from adult female ticks are both negligible. The model has only 19 parameters, all of which have a clear biological interpretation and can be estimated from laboratory or field data. The model takes into account the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host as a function of the days since infection, in part because of the potential for this dynamic to interact with tick phenology, which is also included in the model. This sets the model apart from previous, similar models for R0 for tick-borne pathogens. We then define parameter ranges for the 19 parameters using estimates from the literature, as well as laboratory and field data, and perform a global sensitivity analysis of the model. This enables us to rank the importance of the parameters in terms of their contribution to the observed variation in R0. We conclude that the transmission efficiency from the vertebrate host to Ixodes scapularis ticks, the survival rate of Ixodes scapularis from fed larva to feeding nymph, and the fraction of nymphs finding a competent host, are the most influential factors for R0. This contrasts with other vector borne pathogens where it is usually the abundance of the vector or host, or the vector-to-host ratio, that determine conditions for emergence. These results are a step towards a better understanding of the geographical expansion of currently emerging horizontally transmitted tick-borne pathogens such as Babesia microti, as well as providing a firmer scientific basis for targeted use of acaricide or the application of wildlife vaccines that are currently in development.

Estimating present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the coastline of Australia : tropical cyclone-induced storm surges

The incidence of major storm surges in the last decade have dramatically emphasized the immense destructive capabilities of extreme water level events, particularly when driven by severe tropical cyclones. Given this risk, it is vitally important that the exceedance probabilities of extreme water levels are accurately evaluated to inform risk-based flood and erosion management, engineering and for future land-use planning and to ensure the risk of catastrophic structural failures due to under-design or expensive wastes due to over-design are minimised. Australia has a long history of coastal flooding from tropical cyclones. Using a novel integration of two modeling techniques, this paper provides the first estimates of present day extreme water level exceedance probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia, and the first estimates that combine the influence of astronomical tides, storm surges generated by both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones, and seasonal and inter-annual variations in mean sea level. Initially, an analysis of tide gauge records has been used to assess the characteristics of tropical cyclone-induced surges around Australia. However, given the dearth (temporal and spatial) of information around much of the coastline, and therefore the inability of these gauge records to adequately describe the regional climatology, an observationally based stochastic tropical cyclone model has been developed to synthetically extend the tropical cyclone record to 10,000 years. Wind and pressure fields derived for these synthetically generated events have then been used to drive a hydrodynamic model of the Australian continental shelf region with annual maximum water levels extracted to estimate exceedance probabilities around the coastline. To validate this methodology, selected historic storm surge events have been simulated and resultant storm surges compared with gauge records. Tropical cyclone induced exceedance probabilities have been combined with estimates derived from a 61-year water level hindcast described in a companion paper to give a single estimate of present day extreme water level probabilities around the whole coastline of Australia. Results of this work are freely available to coastal engineers, managers and researchers via a web-based tool (www.sealevelrise.info). The described methodology could be applied to other regions of the world, like the US east coast, that are subject to both extra-tropical and tropical cyclones.

Nonlinear container ship model for the study of parametric roll resonance

Parametric roll is a critical phenomenon for ships, whose onset may cause roll oscillations up to +-40 degrees, leading to very dangerous situations and possibly capsizing. Container ships have been shown to be particularly prone to parametric roll resonance when they are sailing in moderate to heavy head seas. A Matlab/Simulink parametric roll benchmark model for a large container ship has been implemented and validated against a wide set of experimental data. The model is a part of a Matlab/Simulink Toolbox (MSS, 2007). The benchmark implements a 3rd-order nonlinear model where the dynamics of roll is strongly coupled with the heave and pitch dynamics. The implemented model has shown good accuracy in predicting the container ship motions, both in the vertical plane and in the transversal one. Parametric roll has been reproduced for all the data sets in which it happened, and the model provides realistic results which are in good agreement with the model tank experiments.

Challenges for implementation of a new model of collaborative design management: Analyzing the impact of human factor

The ineffectiveness of current design processes has been well studied and has resulted in widespread calls for the evolution and development of new management processes. Even following the advent of BIM, we continue to move from one stage to another without necessarily having resolved all the issues. CAD design technology, if well handled, could have significantly raised the level of quality and efficiency of current processes, but in practice this was not fully realized. Therefore, technology alone can´t solve all the problems and the advent of BIM could result in a similar bottleneck. For a precise definition of the problem to be solved we should start by understanding what are the main current bottlenecks that have yet to be overcome by either new technologies or management processes, and the impact of human behaviour-related issues which impact the adoption and utilization of new technologies. The fragmented and dispersed nature of the AEC sector, and the huge number of small organizations that comprise it, are a major limiting factor. Several authors have addressed this issue and more recently IDDS has been defined as the highest level of achievement. However, what is written on IDDS shows an extremely ideal situation on a state to be achieved; it shows a holistic utopian proposition with the intent to create the research agenda to move towards that state. Key to IDDS is the framing of a new management model which should address the problems associated with key aspects: technology, processes, policies and people. One of the primary areas to be further studied is the process of collaborative work and understanding, together with the development of proposals to overcome the many cultural barriers that currently exist and impede the advance of new management methods. The purpose of this paper is to define and delimit problems to be solved so that it is possible to implement a new management model for a collaborative design process.

A variable diffusivity model for the drying of spherical food particulates

An investigation of the drying of spherical food particles was performed, using peas as the model material. In the development of a mathematical model for drying curves, moisture diffusion was modelled using Fick’s second law for mass transfer. The resulting partial differential equation was solved using a forward-time central-space finite difference approximation, with the assumption of variable effective diffusivity. In order to test the model, experimental data was collected for the drying of green peas in a fluidised bed at three drying temperatures. Through fitting three equation types for effective diffusivity to the data, it was found that a linear equation form, in which diffusivity increased with decreasing moisture content, was most appropriate. The final model accurately described the drying curves of the three experimental temperatures, with an R2 value greater than 98.6% for all temperatures.

Upregulated MT1-MMP/TIMP-2 axis in the TSU-Pr1-B1/B2 model of metastatic progression in transitional cell carcinoma of the bladder

Muscle invasive transitional cell carcinoma (TCC) of the bladder is associated with a high frequency of metastasis, resulting in poor prognosis for patients presenting with this disease. Models that capture and demonstrate step-wise enhancement of elements of the human metastatic cascade on a similar genetic background are useful research tools. We have utilized the transitional cell carcinoma cell line TSU-Pr1 to develop an in vivo experimental model of bladder TCC metastasis. TSU-Pr1 cells were inoculated into the left cardiac ventricle of SCID mice and the development of bone metastases was monitored using high resolution X-ray. Tumor tissue from a single bone lesion was excised and cultured in vitro to generate the TSU-Pr1-B1 subline. This cycle was repeated with the TSU-Pr1-B1 cells to generate the successive subline TSU-Pr1-B2. DNA profiling and karyotype analysis confirmed the genetic relationship of these three cell lines. In vitro, the growth rate of these cell lines was not significantly different. However, following intracardiac inoculation TSU-Pr1, TSU-Pr1-B1 and TSU-Pr1-B2 exhibited increasing metastatic potential with a concomitant decrease in time to the onset of radiologically detectable metastatic bone lesions. Significant elevations in the levels of mRNA expression of the matrix metalloproteases (MMPs) membrane type 1-MMP (MT1-MMP), MT2-MMP and MMP-9, and their inhibitor, tissue inhibitor of metalloprotease-2 (TIMP-2), across the progressively metastatic cell lines, were detected by quantitative PCR. Given the role of MT1-MMP and TIMP-2 in MMP-2 activation, and the upregulation of MMP-9, these data suggest an important role for matrix remodeling, particularly basement membrane, in this progression. The TSU-Pr1-B1/B2 model holds promise for further identification of important molecules.

The role of desire in understanding intentions to drink responsibly : an application of the model of goal-directed behaviour

This study models young people's moderate drinking decision-making using the Model of Goal-Directed Behaviour (MGB), thus presenting insights into young people's desires and intentions to drink responsibly. Testing the applicability of the MGB to quantitatively analyse responsible drinking, the explanatory sphere of the MGB is extended. An online survey resulted in 1522 completed questionnaires from respondents aged between 18 and 25 years. Collected data were analysed with structural equation modelling (SEM) using SPSS AMOS21 (IBM, New York, NY, USA) software. The key finding of this study is that an individual's desire to drink moderately is the most important predictor of young people's responsible drinking intentions. Our use of MGB provides further evidence that there is a strong distinction between consumer desires and intentions.

lacZ transduced human breast cancer xenografts as an in vivo model for the study of invasion and metastasis

A number of human cancer cell lines have been described as being invasive and metastatic in immune incompetent animals. However, it is difficult to assess metastatic spread of a subcutaneously injected or inoculated cell line, since an exact detection of all microfoci of human tumour cells in the animals by usual histological procedures would require extensive sectioning of the whole animal. To overcome this problem, we transduced human breast cancer cells with a replication-defective Moloney murine leukaemia retroviral vector (M-MuLV) containing both neo(R) (neomycin resistance) and lacZ genes. The resulting cell lines were selected for antibiotic (G418) resistance, and cell-sorted for lacZ expression. lacZ continued to be expressed in cultured cells for at least 20 passages without further G418 selection. The lacE gene codes for β-D-galactosidase, and cells expressing this gene stain blue with the chromogenic substrate X-gal. The lacZ-expressing cells retained the pre-transduction ability to traverse Matrigel in vitro, to form subcutaneous tumours in nude mice, and to grow invasively with the formation of metastases. X-gal staining showed high specificity, staining the tumour cells but not the surrounding mouse tissue on either whole tissue blocks or histological sections. The staining procedure was highly sensitive, allowing detection of microfoci of human cancer cells, and quantitative estimation of the metastatic capacity of the cells. These results indicate that lacZ transduction of human tumour cells is a powerful means of studying human cancer cell invasion and metastases in vivo.

An endogenously deposited fibrin scaffold determines construct size in the surgically created arteriovenous loop chamber model of tissue engineering

Background: An arteriovenous loop (AVL) enclosed in a polycarbonate chamber in vivo, produces a fibrin exudate which acts as a provisional matrix for the development of a tissue engineered microcirculatory network. Objectives: By administering enoxaparin sodium - an inhibitor of fibrin polymerization, the significance of fibrin scaffold formation on AVL construct size (including the AVL, fibrin scaffold, and new tissue growth into the fibrin), growth, and vascularization were assessed and compared to controls. Methods: In Sprague Dawley rats, an AVL was created on femoral vessels and inserted into a polycarbonate chamber in the groin in 3 control groups (Series I) and 3 experimental groups (Series II). Two hours before surgery and 6 hours post-surgery, saline (Series I) or enoxaparin sodium (0.6 mg/kg, Series II) was administered intra-peritoneally. Thereafter, the rats were injected daily with saline (Series I) or enoxaparin sodium (1.5 mg/kg, Series II) until construct retrieval at 3, 10, or 21 days. The retrieved constructs underwent weight and volume measurements, and morphologic/morphometric analysis of new tissue components. Results: Enoxaparin sodium treatment resulted in the development of smaller AVL constructs at 3, 10, and 21 days. Construct weight and volume were significantly reduced at 10 days (control weight 0.337 ± 0.016 g [Mean ± SEM] vs treated 0.228 ± 0.048, [P < .001]: control volume 0.317 ± 0.015 mL vs treated 0.184 ± 0.039 mL [P < .01]) and 21 days (control weight 0.306 ± 0.053 g vs treated 0.198 ± 0.043 g [P < .01]: control volume 0.285 ± 0.047 mL vs treated 0.148 ± 0.041 mL, [P < .01]). Angiogenesis was delayed in the enoxaparin sodium-treated constructs with the absolute vascular volume significantly decreased at 10 days (control vascular volume 0.029 ± 0.03 mL vs treated 0.012 ± 0.002 mL [P < .05]). Conclusion: In this in vivo tissue engineering model, endogenous, extra-vascularly deposited fibrin volume determines construct size and vascular growth in the first 3 weeks and is, therefore, critical to full construct development.

Security analysis of the non-aggressive challenge response of the DNP3 Protocol using a CPN Model

Distributed Network Protocol Version 3 (DNP3) is the de-facto communication protocol for power grids. Standard-based interoperability among devices has made the protocol useful to other infrastructures such as water, sewage, oil and gas. DNP3 is designed to facilitate interaction between master stations and outstations. In this paper, we apply a formal modelling methodology called Coloured Petri Nets (CPN) to create an executable model representation of DNP3 protocol. The model facilitates the analysis of the protocol to ensure that the protocol will behave as expected. Also, we illustrate how to verify and validate the behaviour of the protocol, using the CPN model and the corresponding state space tool to determine if there are insecure states. With this approach, we were able to identify a Denial of Service (DoS) attack against the DNP3 protocol.

A model of a large-area planar plasma producer based on surface wave propagation in a plasma-metal structure with a dielectric sheath

A theoretical model of a large-area planar plasma producer based on surface wave (SW) propagation in a plasma-metal structure with a dielectric sheath is presented. The SW which produces and sustains the microwave gas discharge in the planar structure propagates along an external magnetic field and possesses an eigenfrequency within the range between electron cyclotron and electron plasma frequencies. The spatial distributions of the produced plasma density, electromagnetic fields, energy flow density, phase velocity and reverse skin depth of the SW are obtained analytically and numerically.