392 resultados para Injury Prediction.


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Work in the Australian construction industry is fraught with risk and the potential for serious harm. The industry is consistently placed within the three most hazardous industries to work along with other industries such as mining and transport (National Occupational Health and Safety Commission, 2003). In the 2001 to 2002 period, construction work killed 39 people and injured 13,250 more. Hence, more effort is required to reduce the injury rate and maximise the value of the rehabilitation/back-to-work process.

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The serviceability and safety of bridges are crucial to people’s daily lives and to the national economy. Every effort should be taken to make sure that bridges function safely and properly as any damage or fault during the service life can lead to transport paralysis, catastrophic loss of property or even casualties. Nonetheless, aggressive environmental conditions, ever-increasing and changing traffic loads and aging can all contribute to bridge deterioration. With often constrained budget, it is of significance to identify bridges and bridge elements that should be given higher priority for maintenance, rehabilitation or replacement, and to select optimal strategy. Bridge health prediction is an essential underpinning science to bridge maintenance optimization, since the effectiveness of optimal maintenance decision is largely dependent on the forecasting accuracy of bridge health performance. The current approaches for bridge health prediction can be categorised into two groups: condition ratings based and structural reliability based. A comprehensive literature review has revealed the following limitations of the current modelling approaches: (1) it is not evident in literature to date that any integrated approaches exist for modelling both serviceability and safety aspects so that both performance criteria can be evaluated coherently; (2) complex system modelling approaches have not been successfully applied to bridge deterioration modelling though a bridge is a complex system composed of many inter-related bridge elements; (3) multiple bridge deterioration factors, such as deterioration dependencies among different bridge elements, observed information, maintenance actions and environmental effects have not been considered jointly; (4) the existing approaches are lacking in Bayesian updating ability to incorporate a variety of event information; (5) the assumption of series and/or parallel relationship for bridge level reliability is always held in all structural reliability estimation of bridge systems. To address the deficiencies listed above, this research proposes three novel models based on the Dynamic Object Oriented Bayesian Networks (DOOBNs) approach. Model I aims to address bridge deterioration in serviceability using condition ratings as the health index. The bridge deterioration is represented in a hierarchical relationship, in accordance with the physical structure, so that the contribution of each bridge element to bridge deterioration can be tracked. A discrete-time Markov process is employed to model deterioration of bridge elements over time. In Model II, bridge deterioration in terms of safety is addressed. The structural reliability of bridge systems is estimated from bridge elements to the entire bridge. By means of conditional probability tables (CPTs), not only series-parallel relationship but also complex probabilistic relationship in bridge systems can be effectively modelled. The structural reliability of each bridge element is evaluated from its limit state functions, considering the probability distributions of resistance and applied load. Both Models I and II are designed in three steps: modelling consideration, DOOBN development and parameters estimation. Model III integrates Models I and II to address bridge health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects jointly. The modelling of bridge ratings is modified so that every basic modelling unit denotes one physical bridge element. According to the specific materials used, the integration of condition ratings and structural reliability is implemented through critical failure modes. Three case studies have been conducted to validate the proposed models, respectively. Carefully selected data and knowledge from bridge experts, the National Bridge Inventory (NBI) and existing literature were utilised for model validation. In addition, event information was generated using simulation to demonstrate the Bayesian updating ability of the proposed models. The prediction results of condition ratings and structural reliability were presented and interpreted for basic bridge elements and the whole bridge system. The results obtained from Model II were compared with the ones obtained from traditional structural reliability methods. Overall, the prediction results demonstrate the feasibility of the proposed modelling approach for bridge health prediction and underpin the assertion that the three models can be used separately or integrated and are more effective than the current bridge deterioration modelling approaches. The primary contribution of this work is to enhance the knowledge in the field of bridge health prediction, where more comprehensive health performance in both serviceability and safety aspects are addressed jointly. The proposed models, characterised by probabilistic representation of bridge deterioration in hierarchical ways, demonstrated the effectiveness and pledge of DOOBNs approach to bridge health management. Additionally, the proposed models have significant potential for bridge maintenance optimization. Working together with advanced monitoring and inspection techniques, and a comprehensive bridge inventory, the proposed models can be used by bridge practitioners to achieve increased serviceability and safety as well as maintenance cost effectiveness.

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Introduction Critical care patients frequently receive blood transfusions. Some reports show an association between aged or stored blood and increased morbidity and mortality, including the development of transfusion-related acute lung injury (TRALI). However, the existence of conflicting data endorses the need for research to either reject this association, or to confirm it and elucidate the underlying mechanisms. Methods Twenty-eight sheep were randomised into two groups, receiving saline or lipopolysaccharide (LPS). Sheep were further randomised to also receive transfusion of pooled and heat-inactivated supernatant from fresh (Day 1) or stored (Day 42) non-leucoreduced human packed red blood cells (PRBC) or an infusion of saline. TRALI was defined by hypoxaemia during or within two hours of transfusion and histological evidence of pulmonary oedema. Regression modelling compared physiology between groups, and to a previous study, using stored platelet concentrates (PLT). Samples of the transfused blood products also underwent cytokine array and biochemical analyses, and their neutrophil priming ability was measured in vitro. Results TRALI did not develop in sheep that first received saline-infusion. In contrast, 80% of sheep that first received LPS-infusion developed TRALI following transfusion with "stored PRBC." The decreased mean arterial pressure and cardiac output as well as increased central venous pressure and body temperature were more severe for TRALI induced by "stored PRBC" than by "stored PLT." Storage-related accumulation of several factors was demonstrated in both "stored PRBC" and "stored PLT", and was associated with increased in vitro neutrophil priming. Concentrations of several factors were higher in the "stored PRBC" than in the "stored PLT," however, there was no difference to neutrophil priming in vitro. Conclusions In this in vivo ovine model, both recipient and blood product factors contributed to the development of TRALI. Sick (LPS infused) sheep rather than healthy (saline infused) sheep predominantly developed TRALI when transfused with supernatant from stored but not fresh PRBC. "Stored PRBC" induced a more severe injury than "stored PLT" and had a different storage lesion profile, suggesting that these outcomes may be associated with storage lesion factors unique to each blood product type. Therefore, the transfusion of fresh rather than stored PRBC may minimise the risk of TRALI.

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The recent expansion of prediction markets provides a great opportunity to test the market efficiency hypothesis and the calibration of trader judgements. Using a large database of observed prices, this article studies the calibration of prediction markets prices on sporting events using both nonparametric and parametric methods. While only minor bias can be observed during most of the lifetime of the contracts, the calibration of prices deteriorates very significantly in the last moments of the contracts’ lives. Traders tend to overestimate the probability of the losing team to reverse the situation in the last minutes of the game.

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Adolescent risk-taking behavior has potentially serious injury consequences and school-based behavior change programs provide potential for reducing such harm. A well-designed program is likely to be theory-based and ecologically valid however it is rare that the operationalisation process of theories is described. The aim of this paper is to outline how the Theory of Planned Behavior and Cognitive Behavioral Therapy informed intervention design in a school setting. Teacher interviews provided insights into strategies that might be implemented within the curriculum and provided detail used to operationalise theory constructs. Benefits and challenges in applying both theories are described with examples from an injury prevention program, Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth.

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Scope: We examined whether dietary supplementation with fish oil modulates inflammation, fibrosis and oxidative stress following obstructive renal injury. Methods and results: Three groups of Sprague-Dawley rats (n = 16 per group) were fed for 4 wk on normal rat chow (oleic acid), chow containing fish oil (33 g eicosapentaenoic acid and 26 g docosahexaenoic acid per kg diet), or chow containing safflower oil (60 g linoleic acid per kg diet). All diets contained 7% fat. After 4 wk, the rats were further subdivided into four smaller groups (n = 4 per group). Unilateral ureteral obstruction was induced in three groups (for 4, 7 and 14 days). The fourth group for each diet did not undergo surgery, and was sacrificed as controls at 14 days. When rats were sacrificed, plasma and portions of the kidneys were removed and frozen; other portions of kidney tissue were fixed and prepared for histology. Compared with normal chow and safflower oil, fish oil attenuated collagen deposition, macrophage infiltration, TGF-beta expression, apoptosis, and tissue levels of arachidonic acid, MIP-1 alpha, IL-1 beta, MCP-1 and leukotriene B(4). Compared with normal chow, fish oil increased the expression of HO-1 protein in kidney tissue. Conclusions: Fish oil intake reduced inflammation, fibrosis and oxidative stress following obstructive renal injury.

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Aging and its effects on inflammation in skeletal muscle at rest and following exercise-induced muscle injury. Am J Physiol Regul Integr Comp Physiol 298: R1485-R1495, 2010. First published April 14, 2010; doi:10.1152/ajpregu.00467.2009.-The world's elderly population is expanding rapidly, and we are now faced with the significant challenge of maintaining or improving physical activity, independence, and quality of life in the elderly. Counteracting the progressive loss of muscle mass that occurs in the elderly, known as sarcopenia, represents a major hurdle in achieving these goals. Indirect evidence for a role of inflammation in sarcopenia is that markers of systemic inflammation correlate with the loss of muscle mass and strength in the elderly. More direct evidence is that compared with skeletal muscle of young people, the number of macrophages is lower, the gene expression of several cytokines is higher, and stress signaling proteins are activated in skeletal muscle of elderly people at rest. Sarcopenia may also result from inadequate repair and chronic maladaptation following muscle injury in the elderly. Macrophage infiltration and the gene expression of certain cytokines are reduced in skeletal muscle of elderly people compared with young people following exercise-induced muscle injury. Further research is required to identify the cause(s) of inflammation in skeletal muscle of elderly people. Additional work is also needed to expand our understanding of the cells, proteins, and transcription factors that regulate inflammation in the skeletal muscle of elderly people at rest and after exercise. This knowledge is critical for devising strategies to restrict sarcopenia, and improve the health of today's elderly population.

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We investigated the effect of carbohydrate ingestion after maximal lengthening contractions of the knee extensors on circulating concentrations of myocellular proteins and cytokines, and cytokine mRNA expression in muscle. Using a cross-over design, 10 healthy males completed 5 sets of 10 lengthening (eccentric) contractions (unilateral leg press) at 120% 1 repetition-maximum. Subjects were randomized to consume a carbohydrate drink (15% weight per volume; 3 g/kg BM) for 3 h after exercise using one leg, or a placebo drink after exercise using the contralateral leg on another day. Blood samples (10 mL) were collected before exercise and after 0, 30, 60, 90, 120, 150, and 180 min of recovery. Muscle biopsies (vastus lateralis) were collected before exercise and after 3 h of recovery. Following carbohydrate ingestion, serum concentrations of glucose (30-90 min and at 150 min) and insulin (30-180 min) increased (P < 0.05) above pre-exercise values. Serum myoglobin concentration increased (similar to 250%; P < 0.05) after both trials. In contrast, serum cytokine concentrations were unchanged throughout recovery in both trials. Muscle mRNA expression for IL-8 (6.4-fold), MCP-1 (4.7-fold), and IL-6 (7.3-fold) increased substantially after carbohydrate ingestion. TNF-alpha mRNA expression did not change after either trial. Carbohydrate ingestion during early recovery from exercise-induced muscle injury may promote proinflammatory reactions within skeletal muscle.

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Ethnicity is rarely considered in the development of injury prevention programs, despite its known impact on participation in risk behaviour. This study sought to understand engagement in transport related risk behaviours, patterns of injury and perceptions of risk among early adolescents who self-identify as being from a Pacific Islander background. In total 5 high schools throughout Queensland, Australia were recruited, of which 498 Year 9 students (13-14 years) completed questionnaires relating to their perceptions of risk and recent injury experience (specifically those transport behaviours that were medically treated and those that were not medically treated). The transport related risk behaviours captured in the survey were bicycle use, motorcycle use and passenger safety (riding with a drink driver and riding with a dangerous driver). The results are explored in terms of the prevalence of engagement in risky transport related behaviour among adolescents’ of Pacific Islander background compared to others of the same age. The results of this study provide an initial insight into the target participants’ perspective of risk in a road safety context as well as their experience of such behaviour and related injuries. This information may benefit future intervention programs specific to adolescents’ of Pacific Islander background.

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Hamstring strain injuries are amongst the most common and problematic injuries in a wide range of sports that involve high speed running. The comparatively high rate of hamstring injury recurrence is arguably the most concerning aspect of these injuries. A number of modifiable and nonmodifiable risk factors are proposed to predispose athletes to hamstring strains. Potentially, the persistence of risk factors and the development of maladaptations following injury may explain injury recurrence. Here, the role of neuromuscular inhibition following injury is discussed as a potential mechanism for several maladaptations associated with hamstring re-injury. These maladaptations include eccentric hamstring weakness, selective hamstring atrophy and shifts in the knee flexor torque-joint angle relationship. Current evidence indicates that athletes return to competition after hamstring injury having developed maladaptations that predispose them to further injury. When rehabilitating athletes to return to competition following hamstring strain injury, the role of neuromuscular inhibition in re-injury should be considered.

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Background: Hamstring strain injuries (HSI) are prevalent in sport and re-injury rates have been high for many years. Maladaptation following HSI are implicated in injury recurrence however nervous system function following HSI has received little attention. Aim: To determine if recreational athletes with a history of unilateral HSI, who have returned to training and competition, will exhibit lower levels of voluntary activation (VA) and median power frequency (MPF) in the previously injured limb compared to the uninjured limb at long muscle lengths. Methods: Twenty-eight recreational athletes were recruited. Of these, 13 athletes had a history of unilateral HSI and 15 had no history of HSI. Following familiarisation, all athletes undertook isokinetic dynamometry testing and surface electromyography assessment of the biceps femoris long head and medial hamstrings during concentric and eccentric contractions at ± 180 and ± 60deg/s. Results: The previously injured limb was weaker at all contraction speeds compared to the uninjured limb (+180deg/s mean difference(MD) = 9.3Nm, p = 0.0036; +60deg/s MD = 14.0Nm, p = 0.0013; -60deg/s MD = 18.3Nm, p = 0.0007; -180deg/s MD = 20.5Nm, p = 0.0007) whilst VA was only lower in the biceps femoris long head during eccentric contractions (-60deg/s MD = 0.13, p = 0.0025; -180deg/s MD = 0.13, p = 0.0003). There were no between limb differences in medial hamstring VA or MPF from either biceps femoris long head or medial hamstrings in the injured group. The uninjured group showed no between limb differences with any of the tested variables. Conclusion: Previously injured hamstrings were weaker than the contralateral uninjured hamstring at all tested speeds and contraction modes. During eccentric contractions biceps femoris long head VA was lower in the previously injured limb suggesting neural control of biceps femoris long head may be altered following HSI. Current rehabilitation practices have been unsuccessful in restoring strength and VA following HSI. Restoration of these markers should be considered when determining the success of rehabilitation from HSI. Further investigations are required to elucidate the full impact of lower levels of biceps femoris long head VA following HSI on rehabilitation outcomes and re-injury risk.

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Background: Hamstring strain injuries (HSIs) are prevalent in sport and re-injury rates have been high for many years. Whilst much focus has centred on the impact of previous hamstring strain injury on maximal eccentric strength, high rates of torque development is also of interest, given the important role of the hamstrings during the terminal swing phase of gait. The impact of prior strain injury on neuromuscular function of the hamstrings during tasks requiring high rates of torque development has received little attention. The purpose of this study is to determine if recreational athletes with a history of unilateral hamstring strain injury, who have returned to training and competition, will exhibit lower levels of eccentric muscle activation, rate of torque development and impulse 30, 50 and 100ms after the onset of electromyographical or torque development in the previously injured limb compared to the uninjured limb. Methods: Twenty-six recreational athletes were recruited. Of these, 13 athletes had a history of unilateral hamstring strain injury (all confined to biceps femoris long head) and 13 had no history of hamstring strain injury. Following familiarisation, all athletes undertook isokinetic dynamometry testing and surface electromyography assessment of the biceps femoris long head and medial hamstrings during eccentric contractions at -60 and -1800.s-1. Results: In the injured limb of the injured group, compared to the contralateral uninjured limb rate of torque development and impulse was lower during -600.s-1 eccentric contractions at 50 (RTD, p=0.008; IMP, p=0.005) and 100ms (RTD, p=0.001; IMP p<0.001) after the onset of contraction. There was also a non-significant trend for rate of torque development during -1800.s-1 to be lower 100ms after onset of contraction (p=0.064). Biceps femoris long head muscle activation was lower at 100ms at both contraction speeds (-600.s-1, p=0.009; -1800.s-1, p=0.009). Medial hamstring activation did not differ between limbs in the injured group. Comparisons in the uninjured group showed no significant between limbs difference for any variables. Conclusion: Previously injured hamstrings displayed lower rate of torque development and impulse during eccentric contraction. Lower muscle activation was confined to the biceps femoris long head. Regardless of whether these deficits are the cause of or the result of injury, these findings have important implications for hamstring strain injury and re-injury and suggest greater attention be given to neural function of the knee flexors.

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Background: Injury is a leading cause of adolescent death. Risk-taking behaviours, including unsafe road behaviours, violence and alcohol use, are primary contributors. Recent research suggests adolescents look out for their friends and engage in protective behaviour to reduce others’ involvement in risk-taking. A positive school environment, and particularly students’ school connectedness, is also associated with reduced injury-risks. Aim: This study aimed to understand the role of school connectedness in adolescents’ intentions to protect and prevent their friends from involvement in alcohol use, fights, drink driving and unlicensed driving. Method: Surveys were completed by 540 13-14 year old students (49% male). Four sequential logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine whether school connectedness statistically predicted intentions to protect friends from injury-risk behaviours. Gender and ethnicity were entered at step 1, students’ own risk behaviour at step 2, and school connectedness scores at step 3 for all analyses. Results: School connectedness significantly predicted intentions to protect friends from all four injury-risk behaviours, after accounting for the variance attributable to sex, ethnicity and adolescents’ own involvement in injury-risks. Significance: School connectedness is negatively associated with adolescents’ own injury-risk behaviours. This research extends our knowledge of this critical protective factor, as it shows that students who are connected to school are also more likely to protect their friends from alcohol use, violence and unsafe road behaviours. School connectedness may therefore be an important factor to target in school-based prevention programs, both to reduce adolescents’ own injury-risk behaviour and to increase injury prevention among friends.

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The school environment plays an important role in shaping adolescent outcomes, and research increasingly demonstrates the need to target the school social context in health promotion programs. This paper describes the research process undertaken to design a school connectedness component of an injury prevention program for early adolescents, Skills for Preventing Injury in Youth (SPIY). The connectedness component takes the form of a professional development workshop for teachers on increasing students’ connectedness to school, and this paper describes the research process used to construct program material. It also describes the methods used to encourage teachers’ implementation of connectedness strategies following program delivery. A multi-stage process of data collection included, (i) surveys with 540 Grade 9 students to examine links between school connectedness and risk-related injury, (ii) a systematic literature review of previously-evaluated school connectedness programs to determine key strategies that encourage implementation fidelity and program effectiveness, and (iii) interviews with 14 high school teachers to understand current use of connectedness strategies and ideas for program design. Findings from each stage are discussed in terms of how results informed the program design. The survey data provided information from which to frame program content, and the results of the systematic review demonstrated effective program strategies. The teacher interview data also provided program content incorporating target participants’ views and aligning with their priorities, which is important to ensure effective implementation of program strategies. A comprehensive design process provides an understanding of methods for, and may encourage, teachers’ future implementation of program strategies.