The health effects of temperature : current estimates, future projections, and adaptation strategies

Climate change is expected to be one of the biggest global health threats in the 21st century. In response to changes in climate and associated extreme events, public health adaptation has become imperative. This thesis examined several key issues in this emerging research field. The thesis aimed to identify the climate-health (particularly temperature-health) relationships, then develop quantitative models that can be used to project future health impacts of climate change, and therefore help formulate adaptation strategies for dealing with climate-related health risks and reducing vulnerability. The research questions addressed by this thesis were: (1) What are the barriers to public health adaptation to climate change? What are the research priorities in this emerging field? (2) What models and frameworks can be used to project future temperature-related mortality under different climate change scenarios? (3) What is the actual burden of temperature-related mortality? What are the impacts of climate change on future burden of disease? and (4) Can we develop public health adaptation strategies to manage the health effects of temperature in response to climate change? Using a literature review, I discussed how public health organisations should implement and manage the process of planned adaptation. This review showed that public health adaptation can operate at two levels: building adaptive capacity and implementing adaptation actions. However, there are constraints and barriers to adaptation arising from uncertainty, cost, technologic limits, institutional arrangements, deficits of social capital, and individual perception of risks. The opportunities for planning and implementing public health adaptation are reliant on effective strategies to overcome likely barriers. I proposed that high priorities should be given to multidisciplinary research on the assessment of potential health effects of climate change, projections of future health impacts under different climate and socio-economic scenarios, identification of health cobenefits of climate change policies, and evaluation of cost-effective public health adaptation options. Heat-related mortality is the most direct and highly-significant potential climate change impact on human health. I thus conducted a systematic review of research and methods for projecting future heat-related mortality under different climate change scenarios. The review showed that climate change is likely to result in a substantial increase in heatrelated mortality. Projecting heat-related mortality requires understanding of historical temperature-mortality relationships, and consideration of future changes in climate, population and acclimatisation. Further research is needed to provide a stronger theoretical framework for mortality projections, including a better understanding of socioeconomic development, adaptation strategies, land-use patterns, air pollution and mortality displacement. Most previous studies were designed to examine temperature-related excess deaths or mortality risks. However, if most temperature-related deaths occur in the very elderly who had only a short life expectancy, then the burden of temperature on mortality would have less public health importance. To guide policy decisions and resource allocation, it is desirable to know the actual burden of temperature-related mortality. To achieve this, I used years of life lost to provide a new measure of health effects of temperature. I conducted a time-series analysis to estimate years of life lost associated with changes in season and temperature in Brisbane, Australia. I also projected the future temperaturerelated years of life lost attributable to climate change. This study showed that the association between temperature and years of life lost was U-shaped, with increased years of life lost on cold and hot days. The temperature-related years of life lost will worsen greatly if future climate change goes beyond a 2 °C increase and without any adaptation to higher temperatures. The excess mortality during prolonged extreme temperatures is often greater than the predicted using smoothed temperature-mortality association. This is because sustained period of extreme temperatures produce an extra effect beyond that predicted by daily temperatures. To better estimate the burden of extreme temperatures, I estimated their effects on years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease using data from Brisbane, Australia. The results showed that the association between daily mean temperature and years of life lost due to cardiovascular disease was U-shaped, with the lowest years of life lost at 24 °C (the 75th percentile of daily mean temperature in Brisbane), rising progressively as temperatures become hotter or colder. There were significant added effects of heat waves, but no added effects of cold spells. Finally, public health adaptation to hot weather is necessary and pressing. I discussed how to manage the health effects of temperature, especially with the context of climate change. Strategies to minimise the health effects of high temperatures and climate change can fall into two categories: reducing the heat exposure and managing the health effects of high temperatures. However, policy decisions need information on specific adaptations, together with their expected costs and benefits. Therefore, more research is needed to evaluate cost-effective adaptation options. In summary, this thesis adds to the large body of literature on the impacts of temperature and climate change on human health. It improves our understanding of the temperaturehealth relationship, and how this relationship will change as temperatures increase. Although the research is limited to one city, which restricts the generalisability of the findings, the methods and approaches developed in this thesis will be useful to other researchers studying temperature-health relationships and climate change impacts. The results may be helpful for decision-makers who develop public health adaptation strategies to minimise the health effects of extreme temperatures and climate change.

Do positional concerns destroy social capital : evidence from 26 countries

Research on the effects of positional concerns on individuals' attitudes and behavior is sorely lacking. To address this deficiency, we use the International Social Survey Programme 1998 data on 25,000 individuals from 26 countries to investigate the impact of relative income position on three facets of social capital: horizontal and vertical trust as well as norm compliance. Testing relative deprivation theory, we identify a deleterious positional income effect for persons below the reference income, particularly for their social trust and confidence in secular institutions. Also often a social capital-lowering effect of relative income advantage occurs, while a rise in absolute income almost always contributes positively. These results indicate that a rise in income inequality in a society too large is rather detrimental to the formation of social capital. (JEL Z130, I300, D310)

Experiential knowledge of expert coaches can help identify informational constraints on performance of dynamic interceptive actions

Coordination of dynamic interceptive movements is predicated on cyclical relations between an individual's actions and information sources from the performance environment. To identify dynamic informational constraints, which are interwoven with individual and task constraints, coaches’ experiential knowledge provides a complementary source to support empirical understanding of performance in sport. In this study, 15 expert coaches from 3 sports (track and field, gymnastics and cricket) participated in a semi-structured interview process to identify potential informational constraints which they perceived to regulate action during run-up performance. Expert coaches’ experiential knowledge revealed multiple information sources which may constrain performance adaptations in such locomotor pointing tasks. In addition to the locomotor pointing target, coaches’ knowledge highlighted two other key informational constraints: vertical reference points located near the locomotor pointing target and a check mark located prior to the locomotor pointing target. This study highlights opportunities for broadening the understanding of perception and action coupling processes, and the identified information sources warrant further empirical investigation as potential constraints on athletic performance. Integration of experiential knowledge of expert coaches with theoretically driven empirical knowledge represents a promising avenue to drive future applied science research and pedagogical practice.

Redistribution and technology adoption under uncertainty : a political economy perspective

We examine the role of politico-economic influences on macroeconomic performance within the framework of an endogenous growth model with costly technology adoption and uncertainty. The model is aimed at understanding the diversity in growth and inequality experiences across countries. Agents adopt either of two risky technologies, one of which is only available through financial intermediaries, who are able to alleviate some of this risk. The entry cost of financial intermediation depends on the proportion of government revenue that is allocated towards cost-reducing financial development expenditure, and agents vote on this proportion. The results show that agents at the top and bottom ends of the distribution prefer alternative means of re-distribution, thereby effectively blocking the allocation of resources towards cost-reducing financial development expenditure. Thus political factors have a role in delaying financial and capital deepening and economic development. Furthermore, the model provides a political-economy perspective on the Kuznets curve; uncertainty interacts with the political economy mechanism to produce transitional inequality patterns that, depending on initial conditions, can unearth the Kuznets-curve experience. Finally, the political outcomes are inefficient relative to policies aimed at maximizing the collective welfare of agents in the economy.

Rapid scanning of spectrograms for efficient identification of bioacoustic events in big data

Acoustic sensing is a promising approach to scaling faunal biodiversity monitoring. Scaling the analysis of audio collected by acoustic sensors is a big data problem. Standard approaches for dealing with big acoustic data include automated recognition and crowd based analysis. Automatic methods are fast at processing but hard to rigorously design, whilst manual methods are accurate but slow at processing. In particular, manual methods of acoustic data analysis are constrained by a 1:1 time relationship between the data and its analysts. This constraint is the inherent need to listen to the audio data. This paper demonstrates how the efficiency of crowd sourced sound analysis can be increased by an order of magnitude through the visual inspection of audio visualized as spectrograms. Experimental data suggests that an analysis speedup of 12× is obtainable for suitable types of acoustic analysis, given that only spectrograms are shown.

The primary school as a logic machine

This paper makes a case for thinking about the primary school as a logic machine (apparatus) as a way of thinking about processes of in-school stratification. Firstly we discuss related literature on in-school stratification in primary schools, particularly as it relates to literacy learning. Secondly we explain how school reform can be thought about in terms of the idea of the machine or apparatus. In which case the processes of in-school stratification can be mapped as more than simply concerns about school organisation (such as students grouping) but also involve a politics of truth, played out in each school, that constitutes school culture and what counts as ‘good’ pedagogy. Thirdly, the chapter will focus specifically on research conducted into primary schools in the Northern Suburbs of Adelaide, one of the most educationally disadvantaged regions in Australia, as a case study of the relationship between in-school stratification and the reproduction of inequality. We will draw from more than 20 years of ethnographic work in primary school in the northern suburbs of Adelaide and provide a snapshot of a recent attempt to improve literacy achievement in a few Northern Suburbs public primary schools (SILA project). The SILA project, through diagnostic reviews, has provided a significant analysis of the challenges facing policy and practice in such challenging school contexts that also maps onto existing (inter)national research. These diagnostic reviews said ‘hard things’ that required attention by SILA schools and these included: · an over reliance on whole class, low level, routine tasks and hence a lack of challenge and rigour in the learning tasks offered to students ; · a focus on the 'code breaking' function of language at the expense of richer conceptualisations of literacy that might guide teachers’ understanding of challenging pedagogies ; · the need for substantial shifts in the culture of schools, especially unsettling deficit views of students and their communities ; · a need to provide a more ‘consistent’ approach to teaching literacy across the school; · a need to focus School Improvement Plans in order to implement a clear focus on literacy learning; and, · a need to sustain professional learning to produce new knowledge and practice . The paper will conclude with suggestions for further research and possible reform projects into the primary school as a logic machine.

Cultural Policy

The development of cultural policy during the twentieth century is underscored by three key developments. First, the formation of the Arts Council of Great Britain in 1946, first headed by the Cambridge economist Lord Keynes, saw the scaffolding developed for ongoing government support for the arts. In doing so, it established the principle of an “arm’s length” relationship between the government of the day and individual artists, through the development of independent arts boards engaged in the peer review of creative works. Second, the formation of the Fifth Republic in France in 1958 saw the creation of a Ministry of Culture, headed by the writer André Malraux. Malraux and his successors have seen three major tasks for a national cultural policy: government support for the creation of new artistic and cultural works; the promotion and maintenance of cultural heritage; and enabling equitable access to creative works and creative opportunities through all segments of society. Finally, at a global level, agencies such as UNESCO have sought to promote national cultural policies as an element of national sovereignty, particularly in the developing world, and this has involved addressing sources of structural inequality in the distribution of global cultural and communications resources...

Populism, law and order and the crimes of the 1%

The article examines the evidence of endemic financial crime in the global financial crisis (GFC), the legal impunity surrounding these crimes and the popular revolt against these abuses in the financial, political and legal systems. This is set against a consideration of the development since the 1970s of a conservative politics championing de-regulation, unfettered markets, welfare cuts and harsh law and order policies. On the one hand, this led to massively increased inequality and concentrations of wealth and political power in the hands of the super-rich, effectively placing them above the law, as the GFC revealed. On the other, a greatly enlarged, more punitive criminal justice system was directed at poor and minority communities. Explanations in terms of the rise of penal populism are helpful in explaining these developments, but it is argued they adopt a limited and reductionist view of populism, failing to see the prospects for a progressive populist politics to re-direct political attention to issues of inequality and corporate and white collar criminality.

Footprints to pathways : reconciliation action planning in industry to sustain Indigenous employment in Queensland

This paper provides an introductory discussion to a study focusing on industry Reconciliation Action Plans (RAP) and sustaining Indigenous employment in Queensland. Indigenous people continue to experience deep and persistent disadvantage in employment, which limits their life prospects (McLachlan, Gilgillan & Gordon, 2013). A major contributing factor to this detriment is irregular employment and or unemployment. A reasonable standard of living has been found to be determined by access to economic resources such as income and wealth. Denial of this access, denies access to income streams, social status, and engagement in meaningful activities. Hence, job loss and joblessness are triggers of disadvantage (McLachlan, et al., 2013). For young Indigenous people, lack of access has lasting effects particularly if they have multiple characteristics that place them at risk of disadvantage. The project aims to develop knowledge and understanding of Industry RAPs mediate employment opportunities for Indigenous people and how young Indigenous people conceive of their employment options and the processes by which employers can best support Indigenous people. It adopts two theoretical frameworks to investigate the aim of the study : (1) Lave and Wenger’s (1991) theory of communities of practice and, (2) Sen’s (1993) capability approach which provides a structure for examining individual well-being in the context of societal inequality. This paper discusses the first research question of the study: What are Industry Reconciliation Action Plans? What is included in RAPs? Why do Industries develop RAPs? How do RAPs attract, recruit, retain, and tenure Indigenous people? The project’s significance rests with its focus on Industry, employers, policies and practices that aid the attraction and retention of Indigenous people in employment.

A new procedure for using envelope analysis for rolling element bearing diagnostics in variable operating conditions

In the field of rolling element bearing diagnostics envelope analysis, and in particular the squared envelope spectrum, have gained in the last years a leading role among the different digital signal processing techniques. The original constraint of constant operating speed has been relaxed thanks to the combination of this technique with the computed order tracking, able to resample signals at constant angular increments. In this way, the field of application of squared envelope spectrum has been extended to cases in which small speed fluctuations occur, maintaining the effectiveness and efficiency that characterize this successful technique. However, the constraint on speed has to be removed completely, making envelope analysis suitable also for speed and load transients, to implement an algorithm valid for all the industrial application. In fact, in many applications, the coincidence of high bearing loads, and therefore high diagnostic capability, with acceleration-deceleration phases represents a further incentive in this direction. This paper is aimed at providing and testing a procedure for the application of envelope analysis to speed transients. The effect of load variation on the proposed technique will be also qualitatively addressed.

Diagnostic of Rolling Element Bearings with Envelope Analysis in Non-Stationary Conditions

In the field of rolling element bearing diagnostics, envelope analysis has gained in the last years a leading role among the different digital signal processing techniques. The original constraint of constant operating speed has been relaxed thanks to the combination of this technique with the computed order tracking, able to resample signals at constant angular increments. In this way, the field of application of this technique has been extended to cases in which small speed fluctuations occur, maintaining high effectiveness and efficiency. In order to make this algorithm suitable to all industrial applications, the constraint on speed has to be removed completely. In fact, in many applications, the coincidence of high bearing loads, and therefore high diagnostic capability, with acceleration-deceleration phases represents a further incentive in this direction. This chapter presents a procedure for the application of envelope analysis to speed transients. The effect of load variation on the proposed technique will be also qualitatively addressed.

Short-term traffic volume forecasting : a k-nearest neighbor approach enhanced by constrained linearly sewing principle component algorithm

To enhance the performance of the k-nearest neighbors approach in forecasting short-term traffic volume, this paper proposed and tested a two-step approach with the ability of forecasting multiple steps. In selecting k-nearest neighbors, a time constraint window is introduced, and then local minima of the distances between the state vectors are ranked to avoid overlappings among candidates. Moreover, to control extreme values’ undesirable impact, a novel algorithm with attractive analytical features is developed based on the principle component. The enhanced KNN method has been evaluated using the field data, and our comparison analysis shows that it outperformed the competing algorithms in most cases.

Self-organization processes in field-invasion team sports

In nature, the interactions between agents in a complex system (fish schools; colonies of ants) are governed by information that is locally created. Each agent self-organizes (adjusts) its behaviour, not through a central command centre, but based on variables that emerge from the interactions with other system agents in the neighbourhood. Self-organization has been proposed as a mechanism to explain the tendencies for individual performers to interact with each other in field-invasion sports teams, displaying functional co-adaptive behaviours, without the need for central control. The relevance of self-organization as a mechanism that explains pattern-forming dynamics within attacker-defender interactions in field-invasion sports has been sustained in the literature. Nonetheless, other levels of interpersonal coordination, such as intra-team interactions, still raise important questions, particularly with reference to the role of leadership or match strategies that have been prescribed in advance by a coach. The existence of key properties of complex systems, such as system degeneracy, nonlinearity or contextual dependency, suggests that self-organization is a functional mechanism to explain the emergence of interpersonal coordination tendencies within intra-team interactions. In this opinion article we propose how leadership may act as a key constraint on the emergent, self-organizational tendencies of performers in field-invasion sports.

Variations in acculturation and Australian physical education teacher education students' receptiveness to an alternative pedagogical approach to games teaching

Background The development of intelligent, thinking performers as a central theme in Physical Education curriculum documents worldwide has highlighted the need for an evolution of teaching styles from the dominant reproductive approach. This has prompted an Australian university to change the content and delivery of a games unit within their Physical Education Teacher Education (PETE) course and adopt a productive student centred approach that is compatible with current curriculum directives. The significance of prospective physical educators’ biographies on their receptiveness to this pedagogical innovation was studied to help recognise and understand potential differences and subsequently guide programme development to help improve the impact of teacher education. Purpose To investigate whether past school and sporting experiences are powerful influences on Australian PETE recruits’ initial perspectives about effective physical education teaching practice and their receptiveness to an alternative pedagogical approach. Participants and Setting 49 first year pre-service PETE students (53% male; 47% female; mean age 18.88 ± 1.57 years) undertaking a compulsory unit on games teaching at an Australian university volunteered to take part in the study and were grouped according to their highest level of representation in games, either school/club (n=13), regional (n=20), or state/national (n=16). Students experienced the constraints-led approach as learners and teachers during an 8-week games unit informed by nonlinear pedagogy and underpinned by motor learning theory. Data collection and Analysis Prior to the commencement of the unit participants completed part A of a two part mixed response questionnaire aimed at gathering data about their physical education and sporting background. The data were summarised using descriptive statistics. Pre and post intervention, participants completed part B responding, via Likert Scale with their opinion of the importance of each sub-component of the traditional reproductive style for an effective games teaching session. This resulted in a traditional reproductive games teaching belief score. For each sub-component, participants were invited to respond in more detail to justify their opinions. A one-way between groups analysis of variance (ANOVA), Tukey’s HSD Post Hoc Test and a two - tailed, paired samples t test were used to analyse the quantitative data. Content analysis was used to analyse the qualitative data. Findings The traditional, reproductive approach was the most frequently reported teaching approach used by the physical education teachers and sports coaches of participants in all groups. Prior to the commencement of the alternate games unit, participants in each representative level group held very strong custodial traditional reproductive games teaching beliefs. After experiencing the alternative games unit there were statistically significant differences in the traditional reproductive games teaching belief mean scores for each group, This combined with participants’ qualitative responses indicated a receptiveness to the alternative pedagogy. Conclusions The results of this present study show that, contrary to previous research undertaken in North America, in Australia, it is possible for PETE educators to change beliefs in order to overcome the constraint of acculturation and provide PETE students with the knowledge, understanding and belief in an alternate approach to teaching games in physical education compatible with curriculum documents.

Product ecosystems : an emerging methodological approach to study the implementation of disruptive innovations : the case of the CityCar

The car has arguably had more influence on our lifestyle and urban environment than any other consumer product; allowing unprecedented freedom for living, working and recreation where and when we choose. However, problems of pollution, congestion, road trauma, inefficient land use and social inequality are associated with car use. Despite 100 years of design and technology refinements, the aforementioned problems are significant and persistent: many argue that resolving these problems requires a fundamental redesign of the car. Redesigned vehicles have been proposed such as the MIT CityCar and others such as the Renault Twizy, commercialized. None however have successfully brought about significant change and the study of disruptive innovation offers an explanation for this. Disruptive innovation, by definition, disrupts a market. It also disrupts the product ecosystem. The existing product ecosystem has co-evolved to support the conventional car and is not optimized for the new design: which will require a redesigned ecosystem to support it. A literature review identifies a lack of methodology for identifying the components of product ecosystems and the changes required for disruptive innovation implementation. This paper proposes such a methodology based on Design Thinking, Actor Network Theory, Disruptive Innovation and the CityCar scenarios.