Combining expert opinions in prior elicitation

A method of eliciting prior distributions for Bayesian models using expert knowledge is proposed. Elicitation is a widely studied problem, from a psychological perspective as well as from a statistical perspective. Here, we are interested in combining opinions from more than one expert using an explicitly model-based approach so that we may account for various sources of variation affecting elicited expert opinions. We use a hierarchical model to achieve this. We apply this approach to two problems. The first problem involves a food risk assessment problem involving modelling dose-response for Listeria monocytogenes contamination of mice. The second concerns the time taken by PhD students to submit their thesis in a particular school.

Essays on irrigation development, farm production and unaccounted costs : theory and empirical evidence

A review of the literature related to issues involved in irrigation induced agricultural development (IIAD) reveals that: (1) the magnitude, sensitivity and distribution of social welfare of IIAD is not fully analysed; (2) the impacts of excessive pesticide use on farmers’ health are not adequately explained; (3) no analysis estimates the relationship between farm level efficiency and overuse of agro-chemical inputs under imperfect markets; and (4) the method of incorporating groundwater extraction costs is misleading. This PhD thesis investigates these issues by using primary data, along with secondary data from Sri Lanka. The overall findings of the thesis can be summarised as follows. First, the thesis demonstrates that Sri Lanka has gained a positive welfare change as a result of introducing new irrigation technology. The change in the consumer surplus is Rs.48,236 million, while the change in the producer surplus is Rs. 14,274 millions between 1970 and 2006. The results also show that the long run benefits and costs of IIAD depend critically on the magnitude of the expansion of the irrigated area, as well as the competition faced by traditional farmers (agricultural crowding out effects). The traditional sector’s ability to compete with the modern sector depends on productivity improvements, reducing production costs and future structural changes (spillover effects). Second, the thesis findings on pesticides used for agriculture show that, on average, a farmer incurs a cost of approximately Rs. 590 to 800 per month during a typical cultivation period due to exposure to pesticides. It is shown that the value of average loss in earnings per farmer for the ‘hospitalised’ sample is Rs. 475 per month, while it is approximately Rs. 345 per month for the ‘general’ farmers group during a typical cultivation season. However, the average willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid exposure to pesticides is approximately Rs. 950 and Rs. 620 for ‘hospitalised’ and ‘general’ farmers’ samples respectively. The estimated percentage contribution for WTP due to health costs, lost earnings, mitigating expenditure, and disutility are 29, 50, 5 and 16 per cent respectively for hospitalised farmers, while they are 32, 55, 8 and 5 per cent respectively for ‘general’ farmers. It is also shown that given market imperfections for most agricultural inputs, farmers are overusing pesticides with the expectation of higher future returns. This has led to an increase in inefficiency in farming practices which is not understood by the farmers. Third, it is found that various groundwater depletion studies in the economics literature have provided misleading optimal water extraction quantity levels. This is due to a failure to incorporate all production costs in the relevant models. It is only by incorporating quality changes to quantity deterioration, that it is possible to derive socially optimal levels. Empirical results clearly show that the benefits per hectare per month considering both the avoidance costs of deepening agro-wells by five feet from the existing average, as well as the avoidance costs of maintaining the water salinity level at 1.8 (mmhos/Cm), is approximately Rs. 4,350 for farmers in the Anuradhapura district and Rs. 5,600 for farmers in the Matale district.

Evidence of multiwall carbon nanotube deformation caused by poly(3-hexylthiophene) adhesion

We show that when a soft polymer like Poly(3-hexyl-thiophene) wraps multiwall nanotubes by coiling around the main axis, a localized deformation of the nanotube structure is observed. High resolution transmission electron microscopy shows that radial compressions of about 4% can take place, and could possibly lead to larger interlayer distance between the nanotube inner walls and reduce the innermost nanotube radius. The mechanical stress due to the polymer presence was confirmed by Raman spectroscopic observation of a gradual upshift of the carbon nanotube G-band when the polymer content in the composites was progressively increased. Vibrational spectroscopy also indicates that charge transfer from the polymer to the nanotubes is responsible for a peak frequency relative downshift for high P3HT-content samples. Continuously acquired transmission electron microscopy images at rising temperature show the MWCNT elastic compression and relaxation due to polymer rearrangement on the nanotube surface.

A national roll out of an insufficiently evaluated practice : how evidence based are our end-of-life care policies?

There has been increasing international efforts to ensure that health care policies are evidence based. One area where there is a lack of ‘effectiveness’ evidence is in the use of end-of-life care pathways (EOLCP) (1). Despite the lack of evidence supporting the efficacy of the EOCLP, their use has been endorsed in the recent national palliative care strategy document in the UK (2). In addition, a publication endorsed by the Australian Government (titled: Supporting Australians to live well at the End of Life- National Palliative Care Strategy 2010) (3), recommended a national roll out of EOLCP across all sectors (primary, acute and aged care) in Australia. According to this document, it is a measure of “appropriateness” and “effectiveness” for promoting quality end-of-life care.

Addressing sustainable living using a collaborative approach and multi-disciplinary techniques

In order to achieve meaningful reductions in individual ecological footprints, individuals must dramatically alter their day to day behaviours. Effective interventions will need to be evidence based and there is a necessity for the rapid transfer or communication of information from the point of research, into policy and practice. A number of health disciplines, including psychology and public health, share a common mission to promote health and well-being and it is becoming clear that the most practical pathway to achieving this mission is through interdisciplinary collaboration. This paper argues that an interdisciplinary collaborative approach will facilitate research that results in the rapid transfer of findings into policy and practice. The application of this approach is described in relation to the Green Living project which explored the psycho-social predictors of environmentally friendly behaviour. Following a qualitative pilot study, and in consultation with an expert panel comprising academics, industry professionals and government representatives, a self-administered mail survey was distributed to a random sample of 3000 residents of Brisbane and Moreton Bay (Queensland, Australia). The Green Living survey explored specific beliefs which included attitudes, norms, perceived control, intention and behaviour, as well as a number of other constructs such as environmental concern and altruism. This research has two beneficial outcomes. First, it will inform a practical model for predicting sustainable living behaviours and a number of local councils have already expressed an interest in making use of the results as part of their ongoing community engagement programs. Second, it provides an example of how a collaborative interdisciplinary project can provide a more comprehensive approach to research than can be accomplished by a single disciplinary project.

The role of digressive learning and uniqueness on performance : longitudinal evidence from young firms

The ability to differentiate from competitors through the selection of unique offerings is an important cornerstone of competitive performance. Developing unique products and services to offer in the marketplace is not only important for established firms, but also an important strategic choice for young firms (Baum and Haveman, 1997). Unlike large and established firms, young firms tend to have less access to adequate resources, well-developed sources of information, contact networks, and considerable experience and management know-how. That is, these firms differ significantly in their attributes and performance from larger and well-established firms (c.f. Miller and Chen, 1994). Although young firms are disadvantaged by the paucity of resources in putting together its unique product offering(s), they develop different pathways in advancing their assortment of capabilities that enables them to stay ahead of competitors.

Optimising collection of footprint evidence from crime scenes and suspects

Analysis of either footprints or footwear impressions which have been recovered from a crime scene is a well known and well accepted part of forensic investigation. When this evidence is obtained by investigating officers, comparative analysis to a suspect’s evidence may be undertaken. This can be done either by the detectives or in some cases, podiatrists with experience in forensic analysis. Frequently asked questions of a podiatrist include; “What additional information should be collected from a suspect (for the purposes of comparison), and how should it be collected?” This paper explores the answers to these and related questions based on 20 years of practical experience in the field of crime scene analysis as it relates to podiatry and forensics. Elements of normal and abnormal foot function are explored and used to explain the high degree of variability in wear patterns produced by the interaction of the foot and footwear. Based on this understanding the potential for identifying unique features of the user and correlating this to footwear evidence becomes apparent. Standard protocols adopted by podiatrists allow for more precise, reliable, and valid results to be obtained from their analysis. Complex data sets are now being obtained by investigating officers and, in collaboration with the podiatrist; higher quality conclusions are being achieved. This presentation details the results of investigations which have used standard protocols to collect and analyse footwear and suspects of recent major crimes.

Available evidence does not support routine administration of antipyretics to reduce duration of fever or illness

Commentary on : Carey JV. Literature review : should antipyretic therapies routinely be administered to patients with [corrected] fever? J Clin Nurs 2010;19:2377–93.

Elicitator : a user-friendly, interactive tool to support scenario-based elicitation of expert knowledge

Expert elicitation is the process of determining what expert knowledge is relevant to support a quantitative analysis and then eliciting this information in a form that supports analysis or decision-making. The credibility of the overall analysis, therefore, relies on the credibility of the elicited knowledge. This, in turn, is determined by the rigor of the design and execution of the elicitation methodology, as well as by its clear communication to ensure transparency and repeatability. It is difficult to establish rigor when the elicitation methods are not documented, as often occurs in ecological research. In this chapter, we describe software that can be combined with a well-structured elicitation process to improve the rigor of expert elicitation and documentation of the results

Focusing on patients : differences between the practice of expert and non-expert nephrology nurses

Specialisation in nursing enables a nurse to focus, in much greater depth, on the requisite knowledge and skills for providing patients with the best possible care. Nephrology nursing is one such area where specialisation has evolved. The characteristic focus of practice emerged as an important feature during a study into the process of expertise acquisition in nephrology nursing practice. Using grounded theory methodology, this study involved 6 non-expert and 11 expert nurses and took place in one renal unit in New South Wales. Nephrology nursing practice was observed for 103 hours, and this was immediately followed by semi-structured interviews. The characteristic of focus was conceptualised as the nurses' centre of attention or concentration while they were undertaking nursing activities. Focus ranged from inexperienced non-expert nurses concentrating predominantly on the immediate task at hand, experienced non-expert nurses who focussed on the medium term to expert nurses who viewed actions (and their possible consequences) more broadly and in the longer term. Of significance to nursing, is how nephrology nurses alter their focus of practice as they acquire and exercise their developing expertise in this specialty.

Backpackers and sustainable tourism : exploring the potential

There is conflicting evidence in the literature with respect to backpackers as contributors to sustainable travel. This paper explores this market with respect to sustainable travel attitudes, behaviours and preferences. More specifically it examined the motivations of backpacker visitors to Australia, their preferences for environmentally friendly and volunteer tourism experiences, and explored attitudes towards the influence of environmental impacts on the future of travel. The resultsindicate that not all backpackers necessarily have a strong focus on the sustainability of their travel, but that those interested in community and environmental volunteering have the greatest potential to make meaningful contributions.

Multitask learning with expert advice

We consider the problem of prediction with expert advice in the setting where a forecaster is presented with several online prediction tasks. Instead of competing against the best expert separately on each task, we assume the tasks are related, and thus we expect that a few experts will perform well on the entire set of tasks. That is, our forecaster would like, on each task, to compete against the best expert chosen from a small set of experts. While we describe the “ideal” algorithm and its performance bound, we show that the computation required for this algorithm is as hard as computation of a matrix permanent. We present an efficient algorithm based on mixing priors, and prove a bound that is nearly as good for the sequential task presentation case. We also consider a harder case where the task may change arbitrarily from round to round, and we develop an efficient approximate randomized algorithm based on Markov chain Monte Carlo techniques.