Using mathematical modelling to evaluate drivers and predict trajectories of HIV and STI epidemics in South East Asian and Australian populations

Objective To evaluate the potential impact of the current global economic crisis (GEC) on the spread of HIV. Design To evaluate the impact of the economic downturn we studied two distinct HIV epidemics in Southeast Asia: the generalized epidemic in Cambodia where incidence is declining and the epidemic in Papua New Guinea (PNG) which is in an expansion phase. Methods Major HIV-related risk factors that may change due to the GEC were identified and a dynamic mathematical transmission model was developed and used to forecast HIV prevalence, diagnoses, and incidence in Cambodia and PNG over the next 3 years. Results In Cambodia, the total numbers of HIV diagnoses are not expected to be largely affected. However, an estimated increase of up to 10% in incident cases of HIV, due to potential changes in behavior, may not be observed by the surveillance system. In PNG, HIV incidence and diagnoses could be more affected by the GEC, resulting in respective increases of up to 17% and 11% over the next 3 years. Decreases in VCT and education programs are the factors that may be of greatest concern in both settings. A reduction in the rollout of antiretroviral therapy could increase the number of AIDS-related deaths (by up to 7.5% after 3 years). Conclusions The GEC is likely to have a modest impact on HIV epidemics. However, there are plausible conditions under which the economic downturns can noticeably influence epidemic trends. This study highlights the high importance of maintaining funding for HIV programs.

Seasonal amplitude of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in China : a call for attention to neglected regions

Hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS), a rodent-borne viral disease characterized by fever, hemorrhagic, kidney damage and hypotension, is caused by different species of hantaviruses [1]. Every year, HFRS affects thousands of people in Asia, and more than 90% of these cases are reported in China [2, 3]. Due to its high fatality, HFRS has attracted considerable research attention, and prior studies have predominantly focused on quantifying HFRS morbidity [4], identifying high risk areas [5] and populations [6], or exploring peak time of HFRS occurrence [3]. To date, no study has assessed the seasonal amplitude of HFRS in China, even though it reveals the seasonal fluctuation and thus may provide pivotal information on the possibility of HFRS outbreaks.

The validity and reliability of the Parent Fever Management Scale: A study from Palestine

Background Parental fever phobia and overuse of antipyretics to control fever is increasing. Little is known about childhood fever management among Arab parents. No scales to measure parents’ fever management practices in Palestine are available. Aims The aims of this study were to translate and examine the psychometric properties of the Arabic version of the Parent Fever Management Scale (PFMS). Methods A standard “forward–backward” procedure was used to translate PFMS into Arabic language. It was then validated on a convenience sample of 402 parents between July and October 2012. Descriptive statistics were used, and instrument reliability was assessed for internal consistency using Cronbach's alpha coefficient. Validity was confirmed using convergent and known group validation. Results Applying the recommended scoring method, the median (interquartile range) score of the PFMS was 26 (23-30). Acceptable internal consistency was found (Cronbach’s alpha = 0.733) and the test–retest reliability value was 0.92 (P < 0.001). The chi-squared (χ2) test showed a significant relationship between PFMS groups and frequent daily administration of antipyretic groups (χ2 = 52.86; P < 0.001). The PFMS sensitivity and specificity were 77.67% and 57.75%, respectively. The positive and negative predictive values were 67.89% and 32.11%, respectively. Conclusions The findings of this validation study indicate that the Arabic version of the PFMS is a reliable and valid measure which can be used as a useful tool for health professionals to identify parents’ fever management practices and thus provide targeted education to reduce the unnecessary burden of care they place on themselves when concerned for a febrile child.

The influence of atmospheric conditions on the leakage current of ceramic insulators on the Colombian Caribbean coast

The contamination of electrical insulators is one of the major contributors to the risk of operation outages in electrical substations, especially in coastal zones with high salinity levels and atmospheric pollution. By using the measurement of leakage-currents, which is one of the main indicators of contamination in insulators, this work seeks to the determine the correlation with climatic variables, such as ambient temperature, relative humidity, solar irradiance, atmospheric pressure, and wind speed and direction. The results obtained provide an input to the behaviour of the leakage current under atmospheric conditions that are particular to the Caribbean coast of Colombia. Spearman’s rank correlation coefficients and principal component analysis are utilised to determine the significant relationships among the different variables under consideration. The necessary information for the study was obtained via historical databases of both atmospheric variables and the leakage current measured in over a period of one year in a 220-kV potential transformer insulator. We identified the influencing factors of temperature, humidity, radiation, wind speed and direction on the magnitude of the leakage current as the most relevant.

Ethnic cluster lifecycle : a case of Chinese restaurants in South East Queensland

Immigrant entrepreneurs tend to start businesses within their ethnic enclave (EE), as it is an integral part of their social and cultural context and the location where ethnic resources reside (Logan, Alba, & Stults, 2003). Ethnic enclaves can be seen as a form of geographic cluster, China Towns are exemplar EEs, easily identified by the clustering of Chinese restaurants and other ethnic businesses in one central location. Studies on EE thus far have neglected the life cycles stages of EE and its impact on the business experiences of the entrepreneurs. In this paper, we track the formation, growth and decline of an EE. We argue that EE is a special industrial cluster and as such it follows the growth conditions proposed by the cluster life cycle theory (Menzel & Fornahl, 2009). We report a mixed method study of Chinese Restaurants in South East Queensland. Based on multiple sources of data, we concluded that changes in government policies leading to a sharp increase of immigrant numbers from a distinctive culture group can lead to the initiation and growth of the EE. Continuous incoming of new immigrants and increase competition within the cluster mark the mature stage of the EE, making the growth condition more favourable “inside” the cluster. A decline in new immigrants from the same ethnic group and the increased competition within the EE may eventually lead to the decline of such an industrial cluster, thus providing more favorable condition for growth of business outside the cluster.

Using the Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork (EAST) to explore conflict between different road user groups when making right hand turns at urban intersections

Collisions between different types of road users at intersections form a substantial component of the road toll. This paper presents an analysis of driver, cyclist, motorcyclist and pedestrian behaviour at intersections that involved the application of an integrated suite of ergonomics methods, the Event Analysis of Systemic Teamwork (EAST) framework, to on-road study data. EAST was used to analyse behaviour at three intersections using data derived from an on-road study of driver, cyclist, motorcyclist and pedestrian behaviour. The analysis shows the differences in behaviour and cognition across the different road user groups and pinpoints instances where this may be creating conflicts between different road users. The role of intersection design in creating these differences in behaviour and resulting conflicts is discussed. It is concluded that currently intersections are not designed in a way that supports behaviour across the four forms of road user studied. Interventions designed to improve intersection safety are discussed.

Occupational and non-occupational risk factors in bladder cancer patients in an industrialized area located in former East-Germany [Berufliche und außerberufliche Risikofaktoren für das Harnblasenkarzinom in einem ehemaligen Industriegebiet der neuen Bundesländer]

Purpose: Several occupational carcinogens are metabolized by polymorphic enzymes. The distribution of the polymorphic enzymes N-acetyltransferase 2 (NAT2; substrates: aromatic amines), glutathione S-transferase M1 (GSTM1; substrates: e.g., reactive metabolites of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons), and glutathione S-transferase T1 (GSTT1; substrates: small molecules with 1-2 carbon atoms) were investigated. Material and Methods: At the urological department in Lutherstadt Wittenberg, 136 patients with a histologically proven transitional cell cancer of the urinary bladder were investigated for all occupations performed for more than 6 months. Several occupational and non-occupational risk factors were asked. The genotypes of NAT2, GSTM1, and GSTT1 were determined from leucocyte DNA by PCR. Results: Compared to the general population in Middle Europe, the percentage of GSTT1 negative persons (22.1 %) was ordinary; the percentage of slow acetylators (59.6%) was in the upper normal range, while the percentage of GSTM1 negative persons (58.8%) was elevated in the entire group. Shifts in the distribution of the genotypes were observed in subgroups who had been exposed to asbestos (6/6 GSTM1 negative, 5/6 slow acetylators), rubber manufacturing (8/10 GSTM1 negative), and chlorinated solvents (9/15 GSTM1 negative). Conclusions: The overrepresentation of GSTM1 negative bladder cancer patients also in this industrialized area and more pronounced in several occupationally exposed subgroups points to an impact of the GSTM1 negative genotype in bladder carcinogenesis. [Article in German]

Convergence in the ownership and governance of East Asian firms

In the past decade, policymakers in over 70 markets have introduced corporate governance codes or best practice guidelines. In East Asia, they have been introduced in Hong Kong in 1999 and 2006, Indonesia in 2000 and 2007, Malaysia in 2000 and 2007, the Philippines in 2002, Singapore iu 2001 and 2005, South Korea in 2003, Taiwan iu 2002 and Thailand iu 2006. The common focus of these codes is to encourage but not force companies to improve their corporate governance practices to a specified target level, e.g., board independence of 30%. Another commonality is that the guidelines apply to all listed companies regardless of their ownership structure or other characteristics.

Old mastheads and new media : newspapers striving to adapt in Australia and South-east Asia

As a key element in their response to new media forcing transformations in mass media and media use, newspapers have deployed various strategies to not only establish online and mobile products, and develop healthy business plans, but to set out to be dominant portals. Their response to change was the subject of an early investigation by one of the present authors (Keshvani 2000). That was part of a set of short studies inquiring into what impact new software applications and digital convergence might have on journalism practice (Tickle and Keshvani 2000), and also looking for demonstrations of the way that innovations, technologies and protocols then under development might produce a “wireless, streamlined electronic news production process (Tickle and Keshvani 2001).” The newspaper study compared the online products of The Age in Melbourne and the Straits Times in Singapore. It provided an audit of the Singapore and Australia Information and Communications Technology (ICT) climate concentrating on the state of development of carrier networks, as a determining factor in the potential strength of the two services with their respective markets. In the outcome, contrary to initial expectations, the early cable roll-out and extensive ‘wiring’ of the city in Singapore had not produced a level of uptake of Internet services as strong as that achieved in Melbourne by more ad hoc and varied strategies. By interpretation, while news websites and online content were at an early stage of development everywhere, and much the same as one another, no determining structural imbalance existed to separate these leading media participants in Australia and South-east Asia. The present research revisits that situation, by again studying the online editions of the two large newspapers in the original study, and one other, The Courier Mail, (recognising the diversification of types of product in this field, by including it as a representative of Newscorp, now a major participant). The inquiry works through the principle of comparison. It is an exercise in qualitative, empirical research that establishes a comparison between the situation in 2000 as described in the earlier work, and the situation in 2014, after a decade of intense development in digital technology affecting the media industries. It is in that sense a follow-up study on the earlier work, although this time giving emphasis to content and style of the actual products as experienced by their users. It compares the online and print editions of each of these three newspapers; then the three mastheads as print and online entities, among themselves; and finally it compares one against the other two, as representing a South-east Asian model and Australian models. This exercise is accompanied by a review of literature on the developments in ICT affecting media production and media organisations, to establish the changed context. The new study of the online editions is conducted as a systematic appraisal of the first level, or principal screens, of the three publications, over the course of six days (10-15.2.14 inclusive). For this, categories for analysis were made, through conducting a preliminary examination of the products over three days in the week before. That process identified significant elements of media production, such as: variegated sourcing of materials; randomness in the presentation of items; differential production values among media platforms considered, whether text, video or stills images; the occasional repurposing and repackaging of top news stories of the day and the presence of standard news values – once again drawn out of the trial ‘bundle’ of journalistic items. Reduced in this way the online artefacts become comparable with the companion print editions from the same days. The categories devised and then used in the appraisal of the online products have been adapted to print, to give the closest match of sets of variables. This device, to study the two sets of publications on like standards -- essentially production values and news values—has enabled the comparisons to be made. This comparing of the online and print editions of each of the three publications was set up as up the first step in the investigation. In recognition of the nature of the artefacts, as ones that carry very diverse information by subject and level of depth, and involve heavy creative investment in the formulation and presentation of the information; the assessment also includes an open section for interpreting and commenting on main points of comparison. This takes the form of a field for text, for the insertion of notes, in the table employed for summarising the features of each product, for each day. When the sets of comparisons as outlined above are noted, the process then becomes interpretative, guided by the notion of change. In the context of changing media technology and publication processes, what substantive alterations have taken place, in the overall effort of news organisations in the print and online fields since 2001; and in their print and online products separately? Have they diverged or continued along similar lines? The remaining task is to begin to make inferences from that. Will the examination of findings enforce the proposition that a review of the earlier study, and a forensic review of new models, does provide evidence of the character and content of change --especially change in journalistic products and practice? Will it permit an authoritative description on of the essentials of such change in products and practice? Will it permit generalisation, and provide a reliable base for discussion of the implications of change, and future prospects? Preliminary observations suggest a more dynamic and diversified product has been developed in Singapore, well themed, obviously sustained by public commitment and habituation to diversified online and mobile media services. The Australian products suggest a concentrated corporate and journalistic effort and deployment of resources, with a strong market focus, but less settled and ordered, and showing signs of limitations imposed by the delay in establishing a uniform, large broadband network. The scope of the study is limited. It is intended to test, and take advantage of the original study as evidentiary material from the early days of newspaper companies’ experimentation with online formats. Both are small studies. The key opportunity for discovery lies in the ‘time capsule’ factor; the availability of well-gathered and processed information on major newspaper company production, at the threshold of a transformational decade of change in their industry. The comparison stands to identify key changes. It should also be useful as a reference for further inquiries of the same kind that might be made, and for monitoring of the situation in regard to newspaper portals on line, into the future.

Phylogenetics of small horseshoe bats from east Asia based on mitochondrial DNA sequence variation

We undertook analyses of mitochondrial DNA gene sequences and echolocation calls to resolve phylogenetic relationships among the related bat taxa Rhinolophus pusillus (sampled across China), R. monoceros (Taiwan), R. cornutus (main islands of Japan), and R. c. pumilus (Okinawa, Japan), Phylogenetic trees and genetic divergence analyses were constructed by combining new complete mitochondrial cytochrome-b gene sequences and partial mitochondrial control region sequences with published sequences. Our work showed that these 4 taxa formed monophyletic groups in the phylogenetic tree. However, low levels of sequence divergence among the taxa, together with similarities in body size and overlapping echolocation call frequencies, point to a lack of taxonomic distinctiveness. We therefore suggest that these taxa are better considered as geographical subspecies rather than distinct species, although this should not diminish the conservation importance of these island populations, which are important evolutionarily significant units. Based on our findings, we suggest that the similarities in body size and echolocation call frequency in these rhinolophids result from their recent common ancestry, whereas similarities in body size and call frequency with R. hipposideros of Europe are the result of convergent evolution.